FEATURE PREVIEWS: MELBOURNE CUP

Comes into the race off a 51-day break as opposed to last year when 96 days. Of the overseas raiders who have won the race without a lead up run in Australia all bar one, Cross Counter, has raced within 55 days of the Cup. His last start 2nd to Kyprios in the Irish St Leger must be good form. Kyprios was amid an unbeaten run of 4 Group 1’s at the time. Perhaps the biggest query around Vauban is his poor performance last year and whether he can cope with the likely rock hard track.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 4th
Rated Price: $8

Gelded this preparation and looks to be a new horse. His purple patch of form could reasonably be compared to So You Think. So You Think draw barrier 2 and started $3. Buckaroo had no such luck drawing barrier 21. Had he drawn low I suspect he may have started closer to $3.50 then the current quote. Given his performance ratings in the races since handicaps were released it seems clear that the handicapper David Hegen would adjust him up 2 to 2.5kg if given the opportunity to re-issue weights. The only question remains the ability to run a strong 3200m a question given significantly more importance after drawing barrier 21.

Trading Consideration: Back to win
Predicted Finishing Position: 1st
Rated Price: $6

Winner of the Sydney Cup 4th up in the Autumn he presents with a very similar pattern, pre Sydney Cup he raced over 1600m, 1900m, 2600m before reaching the 3200m of the Sydney Cup. He took a full step in ratings to win. This prep he has raced over 1600m, 2000m and 2400m. He comes off a lower base of ratings and therefore is unlikely to reach that Sydney Cup rating. Even if he does it is unlikely that rating would be good enough and he is likely to be well beaten. Add to that the fact he has drawn barrier 24 and he is on we can comfortably bet away from, despite having Australia’s best long-distance jockey and winner of the past 2 Melbourne Cups Mark Zahra.

Trading Consideration: Lay top 10
Predicted Finishing Position: 19th
Rated Price: $51

The marketplace predicted he would run around 0.5L off his career peak in the Caulfield Cup. He was one of the first beaten that day. He is almost certainly a better 2-miler than mile and a half horse. We are happy to bet around but given the likely very positive map he could stay on into a top 10 place.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 10th
Rated Price: $41

The coincidences between 2008 Melbourne Cup winner Viewed and this horse are striking. Each had 7 starts through the Autumn and Brisbane winter carnivals. They resumed 12 weeks later and presented to the Cup 5th up. Curiously Kovalica and Viewed were both well beaten in their lead up run. After the Qld Derby success I noted in my video comment file “Cups”, a note to say that he looked a Cups horse of the future. Trainer Waller avoided a Cups campaign at 4, persevering him to a max 1600m before embarking on a mission to win this Cup. Kovalica will need to overcome a tricky barrier but still looks a fair bet.

Trading Consideration: Back top 3
Predicted Finishing Position: 5th
Rated Price: $18

Last win came in the New Zealand Derby of 2023, 12 starts ago. Bounced back with a credible 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup but even if he takes that maximum step in ratings back to his personal best it won’t be enough for what is required to win the Cup.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 18th
Rated Price: $126

Just Fine has followed a similar path to Fiorente, with an abbreviated Autumn prep. His yo-yo rating pattern has resulted in two good and three poor performances this prep. Up his sleeve is the potential to reach his PB in winning last year’s ATC  Metrop Handicap; and the likelihood that he will be a solo leader in this year’s Cup. On the back of his last start performance in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup you would rightfully think not, however the trainer has an example from history with the 2010 Caulfield Cup winner Descarado crashing similarly before winning. I expect he will lead up and bowl along.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 12th
Rated Price: $51

Debuted in Australia impressively last Spring winning the ATC St Leger by 3L. Placegetters from that race Cleveland and Kalapour went on to win the Monnee Valley Gold Cups and G1 Tancred stakes at their next starts. He didn’t run in the Autumn with the stable opting to let the horse recover from some minor niggles and fully acclimatise prior to his Cups campaign. Presents here 5th up and has the ratings to be a strong winning chance. Barrier draw is not helpful, but he might be able to slot across 2/3rd the way down the field.

Trading Consideration: Back Top 6
Predicted Finishing Position: 7th
Rated Price: $17

Comes to this off the back of an identical rating to when he presented last year. He does however present off a break of 66 days, of the horses that have won the Cup first up in Australia only 1 has done so with a break of greater than 55 days and that was Cross Counter who was benefited by the weight relief for a Northern Hemisphere 3YO. Maps well. Might struggle to get to a winning rating but will be competitive for minor placings.

Trading Consideration: Lay to win
Predicted Finishing Position: 6th
Rated Price: $13

Last start winner of the ATC St Leger. Finished 2nd in the Sydney Cup in the Autumn. Despite those good efforts a winning rating appears to be beyond him. What is not beyond him is the ability to stick on in the top half of the field after a generous barrier draw resulted in him likely being able to secure the box seat.

Trading Consideration: Back Top 10
Predicted Finishing Position: 11th
Rated Price: $51

Most recent win was 11 starts ago in an Open Handicap in Brisbane. Started $26 in the Bendigo Cup. Struggles to run a place. Barrier draw and likely forward position gives some hope to holding on for top 10 but even that looks difficult.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 24th
Rated Price: $251

Avoided a run in the Autumn to be saved for this Cup campaign. Presents 5th up and went to his Australian PB last start. He has an excellent ratings pattern to step to a new PB. That puts him with an outside chance of winning but an outstanding top 10 chance.

Trading Consideration: Back Top 6
Predicted Finishing Position: 9th
Rated Price: $21

Shippers who present 2nd up into the Cup off the back of a first up success include Media Puzzle, Dunaden and Americain. Those horses made stratospheric leaps in rating to win the Cup. As this year’s Geelong Cup winner he rated well below those horses. Back home he clashed with Sea King in the Ebor and was beaten home 0.75L after starting $31 compared to Sea King $12. If he does launch to a new level, he is a winning chance but at the current single figure price I will be betting around him.

Trading Consideration: Lay to win
Predicted Finishing Position: 8th
Rated Price: $13

In 2015 the Mackinnon Stakes was moved from Derby Day to the final Saturday of the Cup carnival. Historically it had been a golden reference for the Melbourne Cup. In fact, there were decades where 50% of Cup winners had their leadup run on Derby day. With the Hotham (Lexus) Handicap now also moved from Derby Day the only possibility to have a 3-day back up into the Cup is through the Empire Rose, restricted to fillies and mares. Trainer James Cummings has taken advantage of this opportunity. Zardozi ran her last 1200m in 1:09.7, sustaining consecutive furlongs at a much faster speed than she will need to endure in the Cup. She has an extraordinary blend of speed (her average winning distance in 6 victories is a tick under 1600m) and stamina (her 2 PB performances being at 2400m and 2500m). She is a mighty chance in this year’s Cup.

Trading Consideration: Back to Win & Place
Predicted Finishing Position: 2nd
Rated Price: $10

As per the comment on Onesmoothoperator these horses can launch off a first up Australian Run. 2016 Bendigo Cup winner Francis Of Assisi romped home in the Queen Elizabeth by 10L after winning the Bendigo Cup. Drawn ideally to get a very quiet run 1 or 2 pairs back the fence and is a live winning chance.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 3th
Rated Price: $9

Yet to place in any of his 4 runs in Australia, his career peak came in running second in the Ballyroan at Group 3 level in Ireland before arriving in Australia. In that race he was beaten 1.5L by Vauban however, that is where the comparisons with that horse stop. The Caulfield Cup run of last year was fair but even at his peak rating he would not feature.

Trading Consideration: Lay Top 10
Predicted Finishing Position: 23
Rated Price: $151

Has stayed on to finish in the front third of the field in the Caulfield Cup, Herbert Power and Naturalism at each of his 3 runs this prep. Seems little doubt he can stay, and he has raced at 2000m plus in each of his 11 Australian runs, 7 of those at 2400m plus. The draw is nasty, and his ratings are not competitive for winning the race but when others are stopping, he is likely to keep plugging to the line.

Trading Consideration: Back Top 10
Predicted Finishing Position: 13th
Rated Price: $101

Bendigo Cup winner last year who went on to run 6th in the Melbourne Cup beaten 5 lengths. I’d expect that margin to be as close as he might go this year. So, whilst capable of finishing top 10 I’m happy to bet round him.

Trading Consideration: Lay Top 6
Predicted Finishing Position: 15th
Rated Price: $34

VRC Derby winner of 2022 he has yet to win again in 15 starts. He failed in the Autmn Sydney Cup rating well below market expectations. I can’t see him featuring.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 21st
Rated Price: $201

Comes into this off 31 days and frankly his PB is not good enough.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 17th
Rated Price: $251

She needed to advance on her promising Naturalism win 2nd up but has failed to flatter. Looks well held here.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 20th
Rated Price: $251

Transferred from Andrew Balding to Ciaron Maher in August 2023 he didn’t race for 13 months.  Giving rise to the suspicion that all was not well, or he didn’t acclimatise. He is still lightly raced and at his very best would be a top 10 chance, but he hasn’t rated highly enough in 4 Australian starts to consider.

Trading Consideration: Lay Top 6
Predicted Finishing Position: 14th
Rated Price: $51

Early qualifier into the Cup after winning the Andrew Ramsden in May, her subsequent form leaves a lot to be desired.

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 22nd
Rated Price: $101

SP’d $71 when beaten 3.5L by Land Legend and Zardozi in the recent Metropolitan Handicap. That is as good as he has ever produced, so not good enough

Trading Consideration: Nil
Predicted Finishing Position: 16th
Rated Price: $201