GOLDEN EAGLE PREVIEW
Rail: True Track Conditions: Good 4
No rain forecast before Saturday.
Outstanding race won in the first 4 editions by Kolding, Collette, I’m Thunderstruck & I Wish I Win.
HISTORICAL PROFILE (LAST 5 YEARS)
1st up (2/24), 2nd up (0/7), 3rd up (0/17), 4th up (3/27), 5th+up (1/25))
7-14 day break (0/24), 21-day break (2/35), 28-day break (2/13), 30+ day break (1/17)
SP $3.50 to $10 (5)
Last Start 1600 (5/35), Other (0/54)
Geldings (3/33), Entires (1/29), Mares (1/27)
Last Start Positions Gained -8 to 0 (0/27), 1 to 15 (4/53)
Last Start Class G1 (5/32), Other (0/57)
Barrier 1-10 (5/50), 11-20 (0/39)
3 winners were previous G1 winners, one was multiple G1 placed.
All winners had their last start in a G1 mile, either the Epsom Handicap or Toorak Handicap.
75% of the top 5 finishers in the past 4 years have drawn a single digit barrier draw.
Pace/Handy (0/29), Midfield/Back (4/51)
GOLDEN EAGLE SPEED MAP
Expecting an above average speed here with Kintyre, Ostraka, Makarena, War Machine, Veight Lake Forest & Griff all able to take handy positions.
Xidaki, Port Lockroy, Joliestar, Encap, Chrysaor & Lazzat can all race forward of midfield.
Southport Tycoon, Tom Kitten, Ascoli Piceno & Corazon Beat all back of midfield.
Stefi Magnetica, Craig & Skybird out the back.
GOLDEN EAGLE KEY RUNNERS
1. Southport Tycoon – G1 winner over a mile last prep as a 3yo. Was impressive winning the G1 Manikato Staks second up this prep, then hit the line well for 3rd last start. Drawn wide but in the mix.
2. Veight – Won the G1 George Ryder over this track/distance last prep as a 3yo. Has had excuses first two runs this prep, but a query how well he’s going and wide draw makes it tough.
3. Tom Kitten – Won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m as a 3yo. Ran 2nd in the G1 Epsom Handicap then 4th in the G1 King Charles. Going very well and rock hard fit. Has won at this track twice. Hard to beat with a very strong profile for this race.
8. Chrysaor – Won well first up at Flemington, then overraced and settled too close in the Epsom Handicap. G2 winner over a mile as a 3yo. Could surprise at big odds.
12. Lazzat – Has won 6 from 6 in France. G1 win over 1300m and two G3 wins over 1400m.
13. Craig – Lightly raced but ran 2nd in the G1 Toorak Handicap last start. That’s a strong profile for this race.
14. Lake Forest – 7 starts for 2 wins and 3 placings in the UK, all over 1200m. G2 winner and G1 placegetter at Ascot. Trainer has had a lot of success in Australia.
15. Stefi Magnetica – Won the G1 Stradbroke Handicap last prep as a 3yo. Was an ok 9th in the Everest last start.
16. Joliestar – Won the G1 Thousand Guineas as a 3yo. Hit the line strongly for 7th beaten 1.5L in the Everest last start.
19. Ascoli Piceno – Super Japanese mare with 6 starts for 4 wins and two 2nds. G1 winner and multiple G1 placegetter. Wide draw makes it tough, but she can win.
20. Corazon Beat – G1 placegetter over a mile in Japan, but has been poor past two starts. Bolter.
TOP 4 SELECTIONS
3.Tom Kitten
13.Craig
8.Chrysaor
19.Ascoli Piceno
SUMMARY
Tom Kitten profiles clearly the best and looks the one to beat.
Craig also has the G1 mile last start form that has found the winner of this race in all 5 years, so rates as a good value chance.
Ascoli Piceno and Lazzat are two highly quality imports who have the ability to win.
Chrysaor is a bolter hope coming off a G1 run where he overraced and was ridden too close.
Southport Tycoon & Joliestar are capable.
BETTING STRATEGY
Betting Strategy
BACK: 3. Tom Kitten (WIN) for 2 units
BACK: 13. Craig (WIN) for 1.5 units
BACK: 19. Ascoli Piceno (WIN) for 1 unit
BACK: 8. Chrysaor (WIN) for 0.5 units
DEAN EVAN’S RESULTS
G1 Big Priced Winners (Betfair SP Price)
2023 Australian Derby: Major Beel $53.63
2020 Empire Rose Stakes: Shout The Bar $32.60
2020 Melbourne Cup: Twilight Payment $28.26
2022 Blue Diamond Stakes: Daumier $23
2022 William Reid Stakes: September Run $19.50
2021 Randwick Guineas: Lion’s Roar $18.95
2021 Coolmore Classic: Krone $15.50
2022 Australasian Oaks: Glint Of Hope $13.55
2023 TJ Smith Stakes: I Wish I Win $12.80
2023 Lightning Stakes: Coolangatta $12.69
2020 Metropolitan Handicap: Mirage Dancer $11.18
2022 Surround Stakes: Hinged $11.00
2020 Manikato Stakes: Hey Doc $10.32
2023 Blue Diamond Stakes: Little Brose $10.24