EXPERT RACING TIPS: BELMONT

BELMONT PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY MAY 24TH 2025

Betting Strategy

This is comfortably the best Westspeed Platinum we’ve seen in a very long time with the three horses heading the market all more than capable of winning at a higher level. This is a race where the two likely pacemakers (Exporose/Some Sort) should come back to them, which leaves us with what looks a semi-obvious map. My Hidden Universe may sit deep (not the end of the world for it @ the Belmont 1000), or tuck in just behind with Masamune following him and Wicked Venom following him. The simple question is – from those spots, who do you want to be on? I think My Hidden Universe has the highest ceiling, but is first up off 329 days with a trial on Monday – is the freshness still in the legs? Maybe that’s an old school way of thinking. Masamune is fit and happy and Wicked Venom will have to sprint past both which will be no easy task. On continuity I priced Masamune a $3.1 favourite, but it wouldn’t surprise if either of the other two won. Unlikely to get overly involved here with my the variability in the My Hidden Universe performance.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. Bayhara (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.80)

The moment Bayhara stepped cleanly and led last week, the race was red rover. If she can keep leaving the gates cleanly and putting herself up over the speed (the way the yard is going at the moment you would suspect she only improves the longer she’s there), then there are a heap more wins for her in town. The staying ranks aren’t deep. Love the 7-day spin here and I even like the wide draw which allows her to muster up and hopefully lead this field (think Tiff’s Lad will be happy sitting if Laqdar applies a little bit of pressure). I’ve marked her favourite on that map, so happy playing, with her on the third line of betting at the time of writing. There is very little between Fat Roy and Zaza. On the slowish tempo, I think Pike perhaps erred in not putting Fat Roy into the race sooner a fortnight ago, but he also would have been mindful of her shorter sprint, especially with the big weight. Luck in running key to splitting that pair. Tiff’s Lad is the 4th and only other chance in my book ($50+ the other 5). Another great little tried horse for the Pateman yard.

Betting Strategy

Late Arrival (my price $3.8) is undefeated since moving to WA and he’s found the right race to add to that picket fence. He is a reasonable chance to lead them up here (Becalotti has early speed, but the stable have seen she races better settled as they look to get her over a trip) and the way he did it without cover against a form leader (Dug Another Hole) at his most recent suggests he’ll be very hard to run down. Big upside. Forever Boy ($5) has been popular in early markets and understandably so. He probably goes close to winning on his return to racing a week ago (14 months off) when he found all sorts of traffic late. While he never really let down, there will be that slight query about a replication of the run off 7 days after so long off the scene. A big watch. Bondi Bay looks to be coming into some form after a couple of little freshens didn’t work for him. Brad Parnham is a huge booking, he maps to follow a strong leader and on map and jockey challenge alone it’s hard not to see him turning the tables on Snippy Sean ($4.3). Expecting support for him. They are the three I want to focus on from a betting POV. Dictated too by prices, but in an ideal world would love to not lose on any of them.

Betting Strategy

Another heavy top end race, with the return of Rock ‘N’ The Jam off a little 105 day break. Fresh, no trial @ 1400 – do we trust Rusty Stewart to have him ready to go or will he need one? Think his best wins it, but it would need to be a fair training performance. Pond Master is the race fit, happy horse who William Pike is building a nice affiliation with. Don’t know if he quite has the brilliance of Rock, but fitness and continuity wins you plenty of races. Elite Missile, a bit like Rock is off a little freshen up. It’s fairly well documented he does his best racing fresh, so this is no doubt by design and if successful could become of a pattern in his preps. I’ve got Pond and Rock @ $3.35 each, with Elite Missile not far behind. Be surprised if the winner wasn’t in that trio.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 5. Too Darn Stormy (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.20)

I’ve really liked the trials of the well bred Too Darn Stormy and while I am wary about backing one on debut from the back, this bloke appears to have a fair degree of professionalism about him. Pike opting to ride him over Playin’It Sweet is a good push on it’s own. $3.5+ gets me for a little play. Noneofyourbusiness could end up in front here and may start a big price. Trust the yard, trust the jock and there is worse things to do than try and find some value in a 2yo leader. Bassett Hound is the big spruik horse with all eyes on the market late. Do the owners have the financial clout to back up the big talk? Trials couldn’t have been much better, but a bit like Too Darn Stormy likely ends up a way off them. There are 5 or 6 other legitimate dangers in a cracking little juvenile affair.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 7. More Than Enuff (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.30)

Purely from a value POV, I’ve ended up with something small on More Than Enuff. His effort when sitting deep the trip off a 6-month break (no trial) to knock off Thermosphere Lad was phenomenal. He followed it up by again sitting deep the trip and running second to Stylish Lord. There is a big hoop upgrade with Shaun McGruddy going on, he maps to get a bit of cover this tim. There is no reason to think the little freshen (only 2 months this time), won’t suit him too. Six Shooter is the obvious starting point, but the ~$2 at the time of writing looks a bit thin. This is harder than his most recent win, he carries 3 more kegs and he likely has to do it fairly tough on speed alongside Looks and Five Down (some chance they ride the latter cold, watching his trial). Deserves to be favourite on upside, but that’s a bare bones price. Manhattan Strip has come back a different horse. Trialled like Winx and backed that up with a sharp win over subsequent winner Camera Action. Wary how far back he will get, but he’s simply airborne off those two public appearances. If he keeps drifting, he’ll get me (marked $4.75). Speak To Me a big improver at a price with a more suitable map.

BACK: 7. More Than Enuff (PLACE) for 1 unit

Purely from a value POV, I’ve ended up with something small on More Than Enuff. His effort when sitting deep the trip off a 6-month break (no trial) to knock off Thermosphere Lad was phenomenal. He followed it up by again sitting deep the trip and running second to Stylish Lord. There is a big hoop upgrade with Shaun McGruddy going on, he maps to get a bit of cover this tim. There is no reason to think the little freshen (only 2 months this time), won’t suit him too. Six Shooter is the obvious starting point, but the ~$2 at the time of writing looks a bit thin. This is harder than his most recent win, he carries 3 more kegs and he likely has to do it fairly tough on speed alongside Looks and Five Down (some chance they ride the latter cold, watching his trial). Deserves to be favourite on upside, but that’s a bare bones price. Manhattan Strip has come back a different horse. Trialled like Winx and backed that up with a sharp win over subsequent winner Camera Action. Wary how far back he will get, but he’s simply airborne off those two public appearances. If he keeps drifting, he’ll get me (marked $4.75). Speak To Me a big improver at a price with a more suitable map.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Bustler (WIN & PLACE) for 3 units (Rated at $5.00)

This is the days focus race from a betting POV, with West Star and Bustler standouts in my book. West Star was simply a surreal win in the Northam Stakes. Money came in droves (5.5 to 2.3ish), he sat deep the trip (worst part of the track) and he won with something in hand. Realistically if he holds form and even races with some type of luck, he should be winning. Bustler is my clear second elect, with the shades going on for the first time in his illustrious career. Not many would have missed his recent trial (career best?) with them on and the zip he had when Steve Parnham asked him for only a little effort at the 100. I wouldn’t usually associate Bustler with a turn of acceleration like that. Imagine this already G1 winner can find 2L from a set of shades. Loves Belmont and WFA is his jam. Perfect setup fresh. Jury is a little bit out on Western Empire after a plain-ish showing in the Quokka. Didn’t race in the Northam Sprint, so he’s off a month here. His last two efforts at 1400m have been victories in the Gold Rush and last years Belmont Sprint. So while I am taking him on, I’m also respectful of his ceiling. With Bustler comfortably the better value of my pair, I’m happy making him the bigger result of my duo in a race I don’t think is as deep as people think.

BACK: 3. Bustler (PLACE) for 3 units

This is the days focus race from a betting POV, with West Star and Bustler standouts in my book. West Star was simply a surreal win in the Northam Stakes. Money came in droves (5.5 to 2.3ish), he sat deep the trip (worst part of the track) and he won with something in hand. Realistically if he holds form and even races with some type of luck, he should be winning. Bustler is my clear second elect, with the shades going on for the first time in his illustrious career. Not many would have missed his recent trial (career best?) with them on and the zip he had when Steve Parnham asked him for only a little effort at the 100. I wouldn’t usually associate Bustler with a turn of acceleration like that. Imagine this already G1 winner can find 2L from a set of shades. Loves Belmont and WFA is his jam. Perfect setup fresh. Jury is a little bit out on Western Empire after a plain-ish showing in the Quokka. Didn’t race in the Northam Sprint, so he’s off a month here. His last two efforts at 1400m have been victories in the Gold Rush and last years Belmont Sprint. So while I am taking him on, I’m also respectful of his ceiling. With Bustler comfortably the better value of my pair, I’m happy making him the bigger result of my duo in a race I don’t think is as deep as people think.

BACK: 14. West Star (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.65)

West Star was simply a surreal win in the Northam Stakes. Money came in droves (5.5 to 2.3ish), he sat deep the trip (worst part of the track) and he won with something in hand. Realistically if he holds form and even races with some type of luck, he should be winning.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 15. Supersession (WIN & PLACE) for 2 units (Rated at $6.00)

Another cracking capacity field and a race I’m happy to find some each way value. While Supersession might not have the profile he did early in his career, I reckon he has returned as happy an animal as we’ve seen and this sets up nicely for a horse midfield to finish over some dodgy speed horses. Unlucky at the unsuitable 1000m fresh, he begun better than anyone expected second up, landed in the unfamiliar position of the breeze and only narrowly went down to Stormchaser. Midfield cover with the form Lucy Warwick sticking. Like this setup for him at the double figure quote. I won’t be losing on Stormchaser. One of very few runners to make ground at Ascot 3 weeks ago, he will again find himself with some traffic issues on straightening, but with normal luck (no certainty with his racing style) goes very close. Storyville will divide opinions. Recent trial was good, but this is a serious line-up to make your return. Best runs were over the mile – is he up to these at the sprint journey? Will he be ridden ice-cold? A major X factor runner. Luvnwar maps nicely, just not sure if the 1200 might be a tad short for her, while cases will be made for several others. Cracking race.

BACK: 15. Supersession (PLACE) for 2 units

Another cracking capacity field and a race I’m happy to find some each way value. While Supersession might not have the profile he did early in his career, I reckon he has returned as happy an animal as we’ve seen and this sets up nicely for a horse midfield to finish over some dodgy speed horses. Unlucky at the unsuitable 1000m fresh, he begun better than anyone expected second up, landed in the unfamiliar position of the breeze and only narrowly went down to Stormchaser. Midfield cover with the form Lucy Warwick sticking. Like this setup for him at the double figure quote. I won’t be losing on Stormchaser. One of very few runners to make ground at Ascot 3 weeks ago, he will again find himself with some traffic issues on straightening, but with normal luck (no certainty with his racing style) goes very close. Storyville will divide opinions. Recent trial was good, but this is a serious line-up to make your return. Best runs were over the mile – is he up to these at the sprint journey? Will he be ridden ice-cold? A major X factor runner. Luvnwar maps nicely, just not sure if the 1200 might be a tad short for her, while cases will be made for several others. Cracking race.

BACK: 5. Stormchaser (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.70)

I won’t be losing on Stormchaser. One of very few runners to make ground at Ascot 3 weeks ago, he will again find himself with some traffic issues on straightening, but with normal luck (no certainty with his racing style) goes very close.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 16. Drakaina (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.00)

Another incredibly competitive betting race, where the leaders will go hard and I suspect stop dead at the 100. I’m a little bit disappointed by the current price (expected $10+, opened 7), but I didn’t mind this setup for Drakaina. Both of her runs in town (forget she went to Gero for the Batavia – shit show) she’s been underneath runners and found some traffic issues in the straight. While I do think she will be better over 1400, this map allows Clint to be positive early, jump in behind the few quick ones and in front of the plethora of backmarkers and make them all chase her. Think she will be in front at the 100 and for once have momentum. It’s just whether she can hold on. The Wubin Gold trial was hard to miss. She’s a mare we look to target second up, but perhaps she is ahead of schedule this prep? Royal Toronado is going to be better over further, but that was a serious trial and Pike would have had a few options here. Respect. 12 different horses can win this. With such a competitive betting medium, I’m expecting Drakaina is easy in the market and drifts from the current $7 quote.

BACK: 16. Drakaina (PLACE) for 1 unit

Another incredibly competitive betting race, where the leaders will go hard and I suspect stop dead at the 100. I’m a little bit disappointed by the current price (expected $10+, opened 7), but I didn’t mind this setup for Drakaina. Both of her runs in town (forget she went to Gero for the Batavia – shit show) she’s been underneath runners and found some traffic issues in the straight. While I do think she will be better over 1400, this map allows Clint to be positive early, jump in behind the few quick ones and in front of the plethora of backmarkers and make them all chase her. Think she will be in front at the 100 and for once have momentum. It’s just whether she can hold on. The Wubin Gold trial was hard to miss. She’s a mare we look to target second up, but perhaps she is ahead of schedule this prep? Royal Toronado is going to be better over further, but that was a serious trial and Pike would have had a few options here. Respect. 12 different horses can win this. With such a competitive betting medium, I’m expecting Drakaina is easy in the market and drifts from the current $7 quote.

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