EXPERT RACING TIPS: BELMONT

BELMONT PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27TH 2025

Betting Strategy

God’s Rapture should win. In what is another wildly weak Saturday 3yo event, he is clearly the one with the most scope and his first up effort at the 1200 was highly encouraging, from an impossible spot in running. While I don’t think it will matter here, the form from his first up run is some type of slight query. Brave Wasp failed midweek. Swingman hasn’t raced again since, but not one horse he beat in his maiden prior (most have raced in maidens since) have won a race and even Who’s Bent just got past Paint It Red, who couldn’t lift her legs last week. Marked her around even money and suspect that’s the quote which holds. It’ll be interesting to see how he is ridden. Do they drop out to last from the alley or perhaps look to press forward and breeze outside of So Much Serenity? I think So Much Serenity can give a nice kick. If the favourite is last and Chanel is off and going with the 52, she can make it interesting. There are a couple of real roadblocks in this. Thought the run of On Cue was more than serviceable first up (some comparative form lines through Who’s Bent), before the mid-race hand up didn’t help last time out. Think he ran into two good ones that day too. If he can tow ball So Much Serenity, wilder things have happened @ $50+. Girls On Fire is just a horse but maps nice, Heeza Phoenix needs luck from the outside alley (not sure if he’s shown the speed to work forward?) and Publicise is a month between trial and debut with the pads going on – red flag.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Ain’tsobad (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $2.95)

Ain’tsobad got gassed by God’s Gate two starts ago and was always going to wilt late, before Brayden Gaerth rode a more circumspect ride at her most recent, allowing the leader to stride and popping off to stalk. Won pretty soft in the end. There won’t be much stalking here, but there is a spot outside of Bigdayonit and Brayden should be able to work across and hold that position. Some chance he could tuck in if Zeph is given a license to run (looking at the early move, there is some chance). With the lack of fear factor behind her, she’ll get me again @ $3.5+. Like her on top of the ground have to think she’s going better than Bigdayonit? I do think Mama Tembu has the best form of all of these. I was going to be on a week ago in a far harder race before she came out, which is clearly a concern, but I think the price will be (10+) there for a little speculatory. She was only 3.2L off subsequent feature race winner Cool Memory two starts ago and this map is far more suitable. Easiest race she’s faced in a long time and a great opportunity for Aussie Galati on a rare visit to town. Bigdayonit was poor 2 weeks ago, but the rest of his runs this prep have been far more meritorious than they read. He’s dropped 6 points (3kg’s) this prep and gets his first claimer of the prep, who is riding these types very well. Effectively gets a 6kg turn around from the start of the prep, in the same grade, and will not be challenged for the lead in the slightest. Wanted to chop, but the early move (I wasn’t part of) has shat me. Did not expect to see support, but @ $10 ish, isn’t overly expensive to save. Will swallow my pride. Very little between Climb, Audio, Wemban, Harbin – all get back and plod to the line OK.

BACK: 5. Mama Tembu (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.10)

I do think Mama Tembu has the best form of all of these. I was going to be on a week ago in a far harder race before she came out, which is clearly a concern, but I think the price will be (10+) there for a little speculatory. She was only 3.2L off subsequent feature race winner Cool Memory two starts ago and this map is far more suitable. Easiest race she’s faced in a long time and a great opportunity for Aussie Galati on a rare visit to town.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 8. Magali Magic (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $5.50)

The main question here, is what to do with Great Emotion? There was good support fresh (8 to 3ish), before he just looked a bit gassed on a bog deck and gave very little late. Has previous won on a bog, so it’s hard to put that down as a direct reason for the failure, but I don’t think it’s worth completely discounting the reason given to stewards. Shades go on, fitter and lands near enough to the one-one. Gets every, but the market is perhaps a bit too forgiving? Tropicconi has been super since being allowed to stride. Just about crosses here again and there is no real reason to think we don’t see a similar result. Diablo Lad is the big map improver. Loomed up alongside Tropicconi before peaking on his run fresh. Maps to follow her here, in a very similar map which saw her push Wubin Gold a few preps ago. At the prices, Magali Magic is the one who will get me. I’m fairly happy to back any Lucy Fiore runner which is above my price at the moment, and this does look a nice setup for a horse who clearly relishes being on top of the ground. Loved the first up run behind Immortal Bliss & Go Go Grommet, before he didn’t go an inch on a bog @ Pinjarra. Recent win was good (shape did help), but once again it was on top of the ground. The 1200 is perhaps a slight query, but the low draw and hopeful back of a horse like Great Emotion should make it a softer journey. I’m $5.5, so each way above that will get me.

BACK: 8. Magali Magic (PLACE) for 1 unit

The main question here, is what to do with Great Emotion? There was good support fresh (8 to 3ish), before he just looked a bit gassed on a bog deck and gave very little late. Has previous won on a bog, so it’s hard to put that down as a direct reason for the failure, but I don’t think it’s worth completely discounting the reason given to stewards. Shades go on, fitter and lands near enough to the one-one. Gets every, but the market is perhaps a bit too forgiving? Tropicconi has been super since being allowed to stride. Just about crosses here again and there is no real reason to think we don’t see a similar result. Diablo Lad is the big map improver. Loomed up alongside Tropicconi before peaking on his run fresh. Maps to follow her here, in a very similar map which saw her push Wubin Gold a few preps ago. At the prices, Magali Magic is the one who will get me. I’m fairly happy to back any Lucy Fiore runner which is above my price at the moment, and this does look a nice setup for a horse who clearly relishes being on top of the ground. Loved the first up run behind Immortal Bliss & Go Go Grommet, before he didn’t go an inch on a bog @ Pinjarra. Recent win was good (shape did help), but once again it was on top of the ground. The 1200 is perhaps a slight query, but the low draw and hopeful back of a horse like Great Emotion should make it a softer journey. I’m $5.5, so each way above that will get me.

Betting Strategy

It’s feasible that 7 of the 9 runners could win this race, in what is a really fascinating betting medium. I’ve got no real firm opinion, so will happily stay out, but it’s fun to pick holes in them. Otheroneson is going super. I am presuming they’ll push forward and try to breeze from the awkward alley. Just hard to win from that position for a horse who is a long time between drinks. Ginger Green improves 3L with Lucy going aboard, but the old boy lumps 59.5 from a sticky alley. Tough. Stormageddon was an eye catcher fresh over the unsuitable 1200 on a wet deck. 1200-1600, drier deck and last with 59kg’s? Clearly the current market elect, this setup just feels like a trap to me. Third up we look. Street Band should land one-one and is a better horse with cover. He’s now 2 from 17 and patience with this bloke is wearing thin. Classic Rogue gets a 6.5kg swing on Street Band for a 1.7L margin and being caught deep the trip. Didn’t get cover again last time out. Feel needs a senior, but the 53.5 from the back of the leader is appealing. Does Hostile Talk run a strong mile? I think he is better @ 1400, but the low draw and being back on top of the ground is massively in his favour. My on topper. Maxwhooshtapin was a tough win first up, but I could probably beat the second horse on foot. C1 to 72+ is wild.

Betting Strategy

Essentric Nature was a beaten fav first and second up, then wins with William Pike in the saddle @ $10, third up. TGG. It was a race which really did shape well for him (Yorga Pride had to work to race in the unfamiliar breeze and he had the back of the humming Eliteone), but he still won with real authority. Same grade (though this race has to be considered lengths easier), extra 2kg’s, similar map – will be popular and likely finishes over them, but hard to come back in too powerfully @ ~$1.80 from last. Here For Cheques first up run from last prep has stuck with me. He sat deep the trip with 60 kegs in a reasonable little 60+ and was only run down by a horse who got the suck run. His trial this time in was elite behind Yonga Lass and Magnificent Andy, but the draw is a killer. Have the camp got their eyes on Ascot opening day and he’s ridden ice cold, or do they look to find a spot and risk sitting deep again? A good ride, nearish the speed with cover and he can nick this. Yarralea is a big improver here. Happy to almost pen the second up run with Keshaw in the saddle where I don’t think she really ever got any fluency into her race. Chris is back on and the low draw allows her to have 6 or so behind her, with a heap of backmarkers engaged here. It’s a very similar map to when she beat Sensessional last prep. It’s just the obvious query with if she is the same horse at this stage of her prep. May be another one ready to fire at Ascot.

Betting Strategy

I Love Your Smile was the quintessential William Pike ride; seemingly lost on the fence, but picked up and lifted over the line. From barrier 1, she may require a very similar ride in a race which has a very similar shape. In theory, should be better on top of the ground and there is no reason she can’t win again. Always just feel a bit wary about backing up betting on these stayers around this grade as the market does come to them a little heavy and they tend to take turns. These staying races are more about being proactive and hunting the value rather than being reactive, as the market is, to past results. Lombadina was a very similar run to I Love Your Smile. Really should come on more than ILYS for the experience as it was her first go past a mile and she should land a few pairs in front. Can turn the tables and could well end up a bet (marked the pair 3.3 v 4). Beats Of War’s race will be determined in the first 300m. There is no Kerman Rock here, but will Royal Law and Magic Whistle be happy to let him go? And will Just Leroy be able to settle outside him? Feels like a mess, but at the same time if they do let him go, it could just about be lights out @ ~$10. Type of horse I feel compelled to have something on, on a win only basis (all or nothing). Lyrical Angel maps well and looks the obvious other chance.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. Too Much Talk (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.60)

Really like Too Much Talk here. He was a speculatory bet a fortnight ago and they were coming out of trees to back him (10 to 3.5) when he should have won by half the straight. What compounded my misery was the reasonable case I made for the eventual winner (Sweet Tea, $25) and my total stake on that horse ($0). Really weak gutted punting, Terence. Anyway, the market is allowing us to atone here and I’m happy to make Too Much Talk my best. I don’t think the mile poses any issue, he’s now strung two really strong performances together and Lucy will be determined to make amends for the hard lucker a fortnight ago (not that she did anything wrong). I’m going to chop out on He’s Archie. Thought he was as good as Sweet Tea, just didn’t get the fluency into his run at the same time as that mare. Clint sticks and it’s a cheap save @ $7+. Gold Maker is the big POD runner. The form is clearly superior to what he meets here, but the major caveat is the 1200-1600 for a horse who has only once raced beyond 1200m and failed miserably. Will have to get a strong mile, running on from last. Can 100% win, but the type of horse heavy in the market I feel compelled to risk. You can understand connections having a throw at the stumps in a 100k race of this nature. Sweet Tea gets a very similar setup to her first up win, though I do think her fresh run tends to be her best and everything went her way that day. Surely doesn’t win two in a row? (mainly for my sanity)

BACK: 7. He’s Archie (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $6.60)

I’m going to chop out on He’s Archie. Thought he was as good as Sweet Tea, just didn’t get the fluency into his run at the same time as that mare. Clint sticks and it’s a cheap save @ $7+.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 7. Too Dardy (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.95)

This is clearly the race of the day with some proper carnival types resuming. In a race devoid of speed, this is as clear a speed map bet as I’ll ever place and I can only pray the stable have the same mindset as I do. Too Dardy should be jumping and leading and I’d be far less keen if they try and sit on a non-existent tempo. Sonoftheboss is the only other runner with gate speed and if Jason Brown finds the front, he’ll rip the handbrake on. You do not want to be on his back with some quality sprinters behind you. What an opportunity to utilise the obvious advantage you have here. I thought the trial was brilliant and he’s a horse with so much upside if they can get him right. LEAD! At the time of writing Angel Undercover is the rank outside of the field, and I’ve actually got her in a very close battle for second in mine, so she’ll get me too. The 58.5 does looks a real leveller for a mare, but drawing under Brave Spirit, Deel Her In & Silver Eye should allow Jade to land one off, three pairs back, ahead of that trio. She is such a perennially under-rated horse and the trials were soft. You just need to go back to her win over Wubin Gold or narrow loss to Twain’s Angel/Generosity (where she did the most work and probably could have won) to see the class she has. Something small @ big double figures. Brave Spirit and Deel Her In were both equally as soft/impressive trials, but both will just be drop out and try to run over them. Pretty hard to do that on a nothing tempo? Big respect for the pair if it maps differently.

BACK: 2. Angel Undercover (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.50)

At the time of writing Angel Undercover is the rank outside of the field, and I’ve actually got her in a very close battle for second in mine, so she’ll get me too. The 58.5 does looks a real leveller for a mare, but drawing under Brave Spirit, Deel Her In & Silver Eye should allow Jade to land one off, three pairs back, ahead of that trio. She is such a perennially under-rated horse and the trials were soft. You just need to go back to her win over Wubin Gold or narrow loss to Twain’s Angel/Generosity (where she did the most work and probably could have won) to see the class she has.

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