EXPERT RACING TIPS: BELMONT

BELMONT PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAYJULY 26TH 2025

Betting Strategy

King Of Light was some type of debut win. Yes, the final trial looked ominous, but to step out on debut, at 1300 and win from last like that was quite surreal. Aberdeen Flyer is no slouch and they absolutely cleared out from the rest. This field looks markedly thinner, but the one caveat at the deserved short quote will be a young horse needing to win from last. Hard to get him much above $1.50, but there is always risk. Radiant Light is the clear #2. His trial behind Twisted Steel has aged well with how that galloper has since gone, and his debut run he really got through the line nicely. Draws to land well in front of King Of Light and he gets Stevie back in the saddle. If the shortie going to be beaten, it’s likely on map from this bloke.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 10. Supernatural (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $1.55)

I’m a little surprised that Supernatural isn’t in the King Of Light price range (i.e. closer to $1.50 than $2) and that’ll see me get involved. The race programming has really worked in her favour with the progression from a soft 66+ win a fortnight ago, into a 72+ lacking any real depth and she goes down half a kilo. Cool Memory is a strong on-pace galloper, but when you throw $200+ pops Success Play and Kerman Rock into the mix, who are both likely to attack, this race really should set up for something midfield or worse. Sunny Honey looks the favourites main danger, but I think if Pike is within 2 or 3L of him on straightening, it’ll be lights out. Sunny Honey continues to put in big, honest performances but is struggling for that killer blow. The 1400 at this stage of his prep looks ideal. Found it hard to come at the rest.

Betting Strategy

Good opinion based little 3yo dash here. I think the big question most will be asking, is how do we map Snow God? For a horse that the stable clearly have a big opinion of, it looks curious placement to back a sprinter up off 7 days, second up (after a bit of a gut buster on a wet deck), with what appears to be a very inconclusive map. I’m a bit surprised Joey Azzopardi has got the boot as he was really on a hiding to nothing with the setup for the horse last week. On paper it mapped horribly and that’s exactly how it eventuated. I reckon he is the best horse in this and I think if things pan out well (either gets to breeze easily – don’t see how, or horse is happy in a moving line and presents at the right time), he can definitely win. Probably worth remembering he is a C1 galloper and there are 5+ options per week to race him in. Maybe they are just trying to set a good horse a tough task?! Lucky I Am just is fool proof. If I was forced into a bet at the current prices, she’d be the one I’d have something on at $5+. Rolls to the top, gives a good kick and clearly gets along well with Chanel Cooper who is chasing her first Saturday winner. Yorga Pride is the X factor runner and deserved favourite. In theory this map should suit her down the ground with Lucky/Snow/Battle and possibly God’s and Real (think both might try sit) setting a fairly willing tempo. Pike will be in position A to finish over them. Amaroo Star is another the map should suit and I like the rise to 1200 for him.

Betting Strategy

I don’t think many will argue that the form line from the Aquanita is panels above that from the Belmont Oaks, so it does surprise me to see a fair gap in the market between Fancy Red and Arcadia Park. In saying that, while the Belmont Oaks could not have been run to suit Fancy Red any more than it was (the second and third horses had run their race before the bend, while Pike just sat quietly til the straight), the manner she travelled and then let down when 1400-2000 has done enough to scare me off an Arcadia Park play. When Pike gets a strong affiliation with one, he tends to find ways to keep winning. Lano should lead this and if you do very simplistic form v Arcadia Park, you’ll see that he beat No Peer and More Than Enuff comfortably at his most recent, while Arcadia Park just fell past the same pair two starts ago. Dive a bit deeper and you do see the work Arcadia Park did that day, which gives the win a lot more merit, but I think it’s worth keeping Lano in the conversation as a genuine winning chance here. Leads and kicks. Arcadia Park likely stalks him, while Fancy Red likely stalks her – all three should get their chance, while we probably see a more circumspect ride on Kimberley Rose who will get central and look to win on a different part of the track.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 5. Great Fortune (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.85)

Happy to have an on-speed map bet here. Going to put a pen through the first up run of Great Fortune who never found his preferred position nor travelled on the extremely heavy going. He’s reunited with regular rider Brad Parnham and should find the top completely unchallenged. He’s a bloke who can handle a strong tempo, so Brad can dictate as he likes and if he can bring that form from his last couple of preps, he’ll be awfully hard to run down. Famous Dain should park right on his back and will be my saver. The camp has finally settled on the mile as his best trip and he really is a pure map galloper (good tactical speed, travels well, no superstar). He’ll want Great Fortune to give a good kick into the straight and then use his fitness to get past him late. Think GF is the better horse, but FD is clearly rock-hard fit which will give him his chance late. Arcadia Knight and Cherry Can Run are the two get back runners who will be hoping Great Fortune simply hasn’t come back this prep. If that is the case, I expect one of the two to finish over the top of them. Will hope that isn’t the case and play a little trots back and save (leader, leader’s back).

BACK: 2. Famous Dain (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $4.10)

Famous Dain should park right on his back and will be my saver. The camp has finally settled on the mile as his best trip and he really is a pure map galloper (good tactical speed, travels well, no superstar). He’ll want Great Fortune to give a good kick into the straight and then use his fitness to get past him late. Think GF is the better horse, but FD is clearly rock-hard fit which will give him his chance late.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 13. Essentric Nature (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.75)

Going on trust a little bit here (and an inability to comfortably mark a second favourite), with Essentric Nature at $3+ getting me for a decent whack. He didn’t beat much first up in his debut WA prep, but it was more the manner in which he got the job done after a dynamite trial. There are some similarities here, with another very soft/aesthetically impressive trial leading into a far tougher first up assignment. $3 or above is the magic number for me, as there is still that question mark on exactly how good he is, but with the speed engaged here (Horcrux, Bayezid, Kelvinater), the low draw, the low weight and the dearth of other runners screaming ‘I’m ready’ I’m more than happy trusting the Pike/Williams combo and being aboard. Is the jury out a little bit with Want A Winner? First up win was OK, second up the placement definitely looked a query back to 1000, but he also gave up pretty quickly. This map doesn’t look all that straight forward, though I suspect he can tuck in behind that speed which comes across from his outside. Regal Statue back to 1200? Thought his last two efforts at 1400 were both super. Expecting Essentric Nature to be one of the better backed horses on the card.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 4. Soldanelle (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.95)

The booking of William Pike on Soldanelle was always going to see me getting involved. Until last prep, Soldanelle has been a fairly costly conveyance to Western Australian punters, but I do think Stefan Vahala has finally figured this bloke out – fresh & 1300-1500. Loved the trial, love the low draw and love the fact there will be a nice strong tempo (Teabiscuit). Look for him to finish over them late. Teabiscuit might be a random second selection, but I really do think this horse has turned a corner at his last couple and should lead this on his ear. He was DQ’d from his most recent run when the saddle slipped and packaging was dislodged, which caused him to weigh in light. The Santanova form from that race is stronger than midweek fibre sand. His prior win he copped a stack of pressure, but still walked in across in Kal. Feel is he’ll paddle in the final 50m, but I suspect he gives a reasonable kick at $30+. Jelly Can Run is another at a price who is going better than his SP. The wetter the better for him and I think his last couple of runs v Masamune have probably been superior and he’s 4 times the price of that galloper. There are several other winning hopes here in a nice deep race, but Soldanelle is a standout for me.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 14. My Jimmy (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.50)

This race has a couple of perfectly mapped runners (Surf Patrol and Santanova), but there must be question marks on their overall class/will to win. In saying that, both look extremely well placed and many a horse race is won on map. I’m going to have a little throw at the stumps with one, who I think at his best, is the best horse in this, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen that – My Jimmy. Some of his runs early doors for Brian Kersley were genuinely anything, before he just went completely off the boil. He was transferred to Dylan Bairstow mid-prep and the horse continued to go horribly for an amazing 7 more starts. While the spell was clearly over-due, that extended prep has seen him shed a stack of points (68 to 60 = 4kg’s) and gets him into a dodgy little 60+ on the minimum. That on its own probably wouldn’t be enough for me, but his recent trial was aesthetically as good as they come. If they’ve got him back to his best, as that trial perhaps suggests, he could make a mess of these. Looks to map midfield/second half and give a few OK ones a head start, but on his day, he is a serious galloper. If there is any on pace bias around, I’ll be having something small on Estimator too. Loved the trial, was gassed first up and then gave a huge kick on the cold part of the track at his most recent. Should lead this.

BACK: 14. My Jimmy (PLACE) for 1 unit

This race has a couple of perfectly mapped runners (Surf Patrol and Santanova), but there must be question marks on their overall class/will to win. In saying that, both look extremely well placed and many a horse race is won on map. I’m going to have a little throw at the stumps with one, who I think at his best, is the best horse in this, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen that – My Jimmy. Some of his runs early doors for Brian Kersley were genuinely anything, before he just went completely off the boil. He was transferred to Dylan Bairstow mid-prep and the horse continued to go horribly for an amazing 7 more starts. While the spell was clearly over-due, that extended prep has seen him shed a stack of points (68 to 60 = 4kg’s) and gets him into a dodgy little 60+ on the minimum. That on its own probably wouldn’t be enough for me, but his recent trial was aesthetically as good as they come. If they’ve got him back to his best, as that trial perhaps suggests, he could make a mess of these. Looks to map midfield/second half and give a few OK ones a head start, but on his day, he is a serious galloper. If there is any on pace bias around, I’ll be having something small on Estimator too. Loved the trial, was gassed first up and then gave a huge kick on the cold part of the track at his most recent. Should lead this.

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