EXPERT RACING TIPS: BELMONT

BELMONT PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 20TH 2025

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. Snitzalatte (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $1.75)

Always somewhat wary on returning 2yo’s, but this does look the perfect setup for Snitzalatte. Should land on the back of Spicy Thang, who will give her a good cart into the straight and from there only needs to return somewhere near the horse that we saw run a brave Karrakatta placing. I’ve marked her pretty thin and expect her to win. Ourgirlcanrun is the X factor. Won a trial by half the straight, before Holly was on a hiding to nothing on debut, drawing wide in a race with a stack of speed under her. Loved how strong she was through the line considering the work she did. On paper there isn’t much speed outside of Spicy Thang, so could work to the breeze? Just wary it only takes one runner to kick up, or her to be half a stride slowly away and it’s big trouble from the outside alley. Still, I’ve marked her a clear second elect. Spicy Thang carries no weight and is quick, while I think we see the best of Playin’ It Sweet over a bit further.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 2. Bonnie Lad (WIN & PLACE) for 1 unit (Rated at $7.00)

This is a pretty wild old speed map. Niccimota is expected to cross and lead, but we need to remember – she can miss kicks and there is a stack of speed under her. Mantua has been leading over East, Kimberley Currency has gate speed, Paint It Red has settled first 2 in all 3 career outings and Tawkin Jibberish is very quick out the gates. Loved the tenacity of her last win (not a word I’ve used for her in the past), when she was forced to sit in the breeze. Don’t know if I’d want that over again though? Paint It Red is the early season 3yo, who traditionally I like to look for in this type of race. I’m just struggling to come at that form reference. Black Ora can win and the messy speed map may well suit her. She’s just a horse the market tends to rate higher than I do. The one I can have something small on at a price is Bonnie Lad. The Gangemi yard have struck form and I didn’t think there was much between his and current favourite Niccimota’s run and he gets a 5kg swing on her. In a race with more questions than answers, happy speculating on a form yard at around that double figure quote. Would love if Zeph can avoid the back of Kim Currency who jumps millions.

BACK: 2. Bonnie Lad (PLACE) for 1 unit

This is a pretty wild old speed map. Niccimota is expected to cross and lead, but we need to remember – she can miss kicks and there is a stack of speed under her. Mantua has been leading over East, Kimberley Currency has gate speed, Paint It Red has settled first 2 in all 3 career outings and Tawkin Jibberish is very quick out the gates. Loved the tenacity of her last win (not a word I’ve used for her in the past), when she was forced to sit in the breeze. Don’t know if I’d want that over again though? Paint It Red is the early season 3yo, who traditionally I like to look for in this type of race. I’m just struggling to come at that form reference. Black Ora can win and the messy speed map may well suit her. She’s just a horse the market tends to rate higher than I do. The one I can have something small on at a price is Bonnie Lad. The Gangemi yard have struck form and I didn’t think there was much between his and current favourite Niccimota’s run and he gets a 5kg swing on her. In a race with more questions than answers, happy speculating on a form yard at around that double figure quote. Would love if Zeph can avoid the back of Kim Currency who jumps millions.

Betting Strategy

Big watch on the early map here with how close My Hidden Universe can get to the speed. Bartime likely leads, Diego Dynamite would love to do the same, and outside of him Gold Flakes is arguably the quickest (first 50) of them all. Could find the breeze, but may have to win like he did first up last prep, deep and lumping weight. More than good enough, but there is a price point for the run he’ll have. Hymns Of Eladdair put in a similarly quiet trial to last prep when he came out and walked in first up. This is panels harder, but not many are riding better than Lucy Fiore and the speed in this event should suit him. Go Go Grommet is on the quick back-up after another really good performance, on what turned out to be the inferior going. Running the quickest L200 v horses like Kraken Time tells me the 1200 is no issue and he could well be the beneficiary of Bartime having his usual little lay out on the turn. We’ve seen GGG get up strongly on the fence at 3 of his 4 last and we should really see that again. Just wants to avoid letting a horse like Diego Dynamite drop in between himself and Bartime. Deamber a big watch. Lowest grade of race she’s faced in panels and trialled without shades. A race I was keen to play, but the market just looks too similar for any type of early edge (mine – MHU 3.4, Hymns 4.5, GGG, 4.6, Deamber 9.5).

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. Kay Tee Why (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $1.80)

This looks a great setup for the returning Kay Tee Why. In a race where there are question marks on so many of these, it’s hard not to be drawn to the up and comer who is proven fresh (wins without trials in both March and May), on the minimum and should be chasing some questionable speed in Norich/Ginnivan/Resonator. The win over Desert Whisper last prep (carrying 59) has aged well and I reckon he was probably a touch stiff behind the very smart Repossession at his final run before a break. I think the stewards vision shows that he was a fair chance of going past them when Art Session laid in and he balked at taking the run. Suspect he is one of the heavier backed horses on the program. Silver Eye was a serious win first up. After not coming back on the drier decks (and with notable soundness issues), he sprinted past a very sharp one in Immortal Bliss like he was standing still. The obvious queries here are the drier deck and fact KTY will likely be on his back with 4kg’s less. If the best of Ginnivan turned up and he crossed Resonator/Norich, he’d be very hard to run down. Just too many ‘if’s’ for a horse still fairly well in the market.

Betting Strategy

After nearly a year off the scene and doing a fair bit of work on a wet deck only 7 days ago, I did not expect to see Cosmic Crusader on the quick spin, but here we are. We need to trust that Michael Grantham wouldn’t risk his prized asset enroute to a Railway Stakes and the market has quickly gravitated (somehow opened 2.2) to an understandable ~$1.40 type quote. It’s purely trusting the quick spin. Sensessional is going well but carries 4.5kg’s more than Cosmic and is clearly an inferior animal. It’ll be interesting to see if Pike looks to take up the running in a race with absolutely zero speed. Kaptain Kaos has really wound back the clock and can challenge Sensessional for second. The lack of speed does look against him however.

Betting Strategy

Another race without much excitement from a market POV. Nine Ball is the obvious starting point. After going down as a ~$1.30 favourite first up, she’s been ridden more conservatively and absolutely walked in, twice. The funny thing with this mare is that she actually steps brilliantly and has only been snagged due to the wide gates. Big chance she steps first and settles last. Too Much Talk (10 to 3.5) was a moral beaten a week ago, to make her form look that little bit better. It’s just the risk in backing a horse who will settle near last with some decent ones in front of her. Be Bardot is a mare I love drawn low. Like we’ve seen from William Pike for 20 years, there is nobody better at getting a horse to settle 3 the fence and explode late. The little virus which has gone through the camp and saw her scratched a fortnight ago is clearly a worry, though it is a camp we tend to trust. Corn Cob went from being a wet track query to winning by over 5L on a bog. This is a sticky draw, but the only speed is drawn outside of him, so surely, they just roll the dice and try lead? He’ll want as much of a head start as he can get on Nine Ball/Be Bardot. Blazing Emerald the big improver with the map and Lucy on.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 12. Mama Tembu (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $12.50)

60 kegs and the rise to 1650 has to be a massive query for favourite Shmoov Moova. I respect the fact he gapped them all bar Cosmic Crusader a week ago, but the rise in weight and distance has to leave him susceptible late? Can win, but an easy one to take on @ ~$3. I reckon this might be a race we can look for a bit of value and there are a few at a price I want to speck. I really liked the last run of the old boy Classic Rogue. He sat deep the trip, then gave up his spot on the turn, before hitting the line in a very similar manner to Twilight Tale and Odinaka. With some positivity from the draw, he can land forward of midfield and with a happier run in transit he goes close to turning the tables? Easy bet @ 30+. Mama Tembu is another who will go round at millions but is going super. Hit the line better than Twilight Tale two starts ago, before her runs were taken at her most recent. Hit the line well when clear. I don’t mind the idea of being 4 back the fence here with Shmoov Moova and Odinaka likely in that same line (Decoration leads, Magic Whistle breeze – first horse beaten?). Neither her nor Classic are overly fashionable from a market POV so will always be cricket score odds. Odinaka is the other I just have to be on at the price. Took Twilight Tale the whole way into the race and she just couldn’t go past him. Hard to understand the market differential on anything bar ‘potential’. I respect the possible upside of TT, but she’ll need to win this from last, with a lot of well drawn/mapped fancies? Last start she simply had every.

BACK: 2. Classic Rogue (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $12.50)

I really liked the last run of the old boy Classic Rogue. He sat deep the trip, then gave up his spot on the turn, before hitting the line in a very similar manner to Twilight Tale and Odinaka. With some positivity from the draw, he can land forward of midfield and with a happier run in transit he goes close to turning the tables? Easy bet @ 30+.

BACK: 4. Odinaka (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $4.50)

Odinaka is the other I just have to be on at the price. Took Twilight Tale the whole way into the race and she just couldn’t go past him. Hard to understand the market differential on anything bar ‘potential’. I respect the possible upside of TT, but she’ll need to win this from last, with a lot of well drawn/mapped fancies? Last start she simply had every.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 3. King Adviso (WIN & PLACE) for 2 units (Rated at $4.00)

The market is again pushing me toward King Adviso. I am wary about the extra weight in a reasonably strong race, but I also love the fact he should cross quite easily (they will want to sit on Snow Prince) and the horses around him (Exceltrain, Snow Prince, Our Rocky Bay, Canny Rock, Costazita) are all battling and probably act as nice little roadblocks. Gives a big kick, it’s just about the type of run that Immortal Bliss and Eliteone get into the race as they will be charging late. Immortal Bliss has been forced to do it tough (making runs around them) at all his WA outings and I think, especially at the 1200, will appreciate being cuddled up til the last 200. I like him back on the drier deck, but there is that little nagging feeling about his best this prep being behind him? Still marked him eq fav with King Adviso. I’m fairly confident Eliteone is going better than both of these. Had he drawn a gate I couldn’t have had enough on, but this does look a sticky setup. I am expecting a near certain 3WL, but where does he fit into that and is there enough strength in it to take him deep into the race? If he gets a 10/10 steer, I reckon he wins. Desert Nymph is never impossible. My market – King Adviso, Immortal Bliss 4, Eliteone 5.5.

BACK: 3. King Adviso (PLACE) for 2 units

The market is again pushing me toward King Adviso. I am wary about the extra weight in a reasonably strong race, but I also love the fact he should cross quite easily (they will want to sit on Snow Prince) and the horses around him (Exceltrain, Snow Prince, Our Rocky Bay, Canny Rock, Costazita) are all battling and probably act as nice little roadblocks. Gives a big kick, it’s just about the type of run that Immortal Bliss and Eliteone get into the race as they will be charging late. Immortal Bliss has been forced to do it tough (making runs around them) at all his WA outings and I think, especially at the 1200, will appreciate being cuddled up til the last 200. I like him back on the drier deck, but there is that little nagging feeling about his best this prep being behind him? Still marked him eq fav with King Adviso. I’m fairly confident Eliteone is going better than both of these. Had he drawn a gate I couldn’t have had enough on, but this does look a sticky setup. I am expecting a near certain 3WL, but where does he fit into that and is there enough strength in it to take him deep into the race? If he gets a 10/10 steer, I reckon he wins. Desert Nymph is never impossible. My market – King Adviso, Immortal Bliss 4, Eliteone 5.5.

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