EXPERT RACING TIPS: BELMONT

BELMONT PREVIEW AND TIPS | EXPERT TIPS | SATURDAY AUGUST 30TH 2025

Betting Strategy

BACK: 1. Paint It Red (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $1.70)

I’ve ended up pretty short with Painted Red here. All her trials were good leading into her debut second against, what I would suspect, is your early Placid Ark favourite in Twisted Steel. She then backed up off the 7 days (rare for a first starter), was forced to breeze and held off the charges of a couple of smart ones in Fiery Spark and Ourgirlcanrun. She was one of very few to win anywhere near the fence on the day. This race looks thinner, she should lead or breeze and her major danger has drawn off. Looks a great setup. Perhaps been a bit harsh on my Desert Life price, purely on map. Always difficult to tell down the straight chute, but she hasn’t appeared to have been stepping all that well. Chris Parnham either rolls the dice and risks gets caught deep, or looks to ride her quiet again? Always happy siding up with the on-speed runner @ the Belmont 1000. Hard to get too enthused about the rest, though I do think the win of Snip Of Romance on the Sand Fibre is better than it reads. Absorbed a lot of pressure and was strong late.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 6. Hanchi (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $2.15)

This is as moderate a feature as you’ll see, and I’m happy to side with a horse with upside, in Hanchi. It’s funny, this bloke was nommed midweek (carrying the grandstand) and ends up accepting into a re-handicapped Saturday feature (90 to an 83+) and likely goes around a well backed favourite (unless the Ginnivan mail is strong). Placement is everything in racing. Thought his last run against Madhi Girl was brilliant and suspect if that mare was here she’d be $1.60 type thing. This is probably easier, he drops weight, is only 4 points outside the handicap (1 metro win) and should have comfortably won more races in his career, so that is of no concern. While I am happy being on Hanchi, if the version of Ginnivan turns up, he probably does win. I reckon he just about has the speed to cross Puli early (though Laqdar won’t give it up without a fight) and a wet Belmont 1000 is his bread and butter. Just not sure where he’s at; trial was moderate (albeit without race day blinkers) and there has clearly been some issues getting him to he track this time around – the recent run of wet feature sprints would have been right up his alley. Puli is trying hard and has probably been a better 1000m horse since moving to the Meryl Hayley yard, while Gemma’s Son had no luck at his most recent. Just hard with weight, back in trip. Hanchi v Ginnivan for me (2.15 v 3.3).

Betting Strategy

None of these early races are making you jump out of bed, and the trend continues. Niccimota should cross, should kick and should probably win. The Ginger Morpheus form (won @ $1.40 last week) is good for a race of this nature and a similar weight of money could come for this mare. It just comes down to what price you are comfortable taking for a horse who has at times shown a penchant to feel the old heart muscle late in races. She’s $1.80 at the time of writing which won’t get me. Low to mid 2’s probably would have. This’ll Show Ya is your second favourite and goes up 7kg’s (in a near identical race class wise – Lost Gravity (54.5kg) v Niccimota (55kg)) and will likely be forced to breeze. Tells you a story about the event. Go Go Grommet is humming and pushed Ginger Morpheus a week ago, it’s just a real shame he’s drawn the widest. If he was able to stalk Niccimota he might have the fitness/tenacity to give Zeph his second Saturday winner. Gold Vancouver is going really well and I love Brad Parnham going on but unfortunately I can’t ignore the pads on mid-prep.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 5. Arcadia Knight (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.55)

Lord Gannicus and Arcadia Knight cleared out a fortnight ago and this race has very similar vibes to that strong form-line Pinjarra clash. When assessing the runs and who would be most suited under this setup, you can see major positives for both sides. Lord Gannicus was forced to absorb a stack of pressure in the early and middle stages but still gave a huge kick on straightening. The caveat there, a bit like Rock In Wonder last week, was the fact he was racing on the really, really good ground. I believe that fence was +5L in running. Arcadia Knight was the one the market wanted and while Clint peeled at the right time, making his run 3 horses off the fence was significantly inferior all day. It should be a softer map for Lord G here (Investmentstrategy content in breeze), with Arcadia Knight settling in a very similar position in running and perhaps having a more friendly ‘chasing’ straight than Pinjarra. I’m $2.55 AK v $3.40 LG, but don’t know if I perhaps could have got the pair a little closer? Investmentstrategy was shocking a fortnight ago and now will have to win from the breeze, over the mile (1400 pet trip) with 60. If he wins this, then too good Neville. Street Band was another who I thought was OK in a slightly easier race. Likely ridden cold here up the mile and will try utilise that powerful finish. Happy to let the market dictate which (dream of a back and save) way I go here.

BACK: 1. Lord Gannicus (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.40)

It should be a softer map for Lord G here (Investmentstrategy content in breeze), with Arcadia Knight settling in a very similar position in running and perhaps having a more friendly ‘chasing’ straight than Pinjarra. I’m $2.55 AK v $3.40 LG, but don’t know if I perhaps could have got the pair a little closer? Investmentstrategy was shocking a fortnight ago and now will have to win from the breeze, over the mile (1400 pet trip) with 60. If he wins this, then too good Neville.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 7. Snow God (WIN) for 4 units (Rated at $1.79)

They’ll be climbing out of trees to back Snow God here. As much as $2.70 was bet early, I’d be surprised if this bloke isn’t dripping in red figures by the time they jump. Huge in defeat behind Terratif (wet, wide, back), huge in defeat behind Yorga Pride (since won soft, gap to third), huge in defeat behind Immortal Bliss (potential stakes grade horse, gap to third). Luckily for the connections there is no G&A Williams runner in this and outside of Diamond Dancer, there really is very little fear factor. I think if he steps well enough (can be a bit hit and miss) Brad Parnham could look to take luck out of the equation and even lead them up. If not, we’ve seen he can run well sitting. Along with Niccimota, suspect is one of the heavier backed horses on the card. Diamond Dancer can test him however, especially if perhaps he doesn’t step and she grabs his back in running. Is just travelling into races like a really nice, tractable horse – clearly gets along well with CJP. Should be your top 2. I really struggle to come at the rest, with Gold Maker my third favourite @ $17 (Snow $1.79, Diamond $4.20).

Betting Strategy

BACK: 10. Scully (WIN) for 3 units (Rated at $2.80)

Happy to look down the bottom of the page here and focus my attentions on Scully and Sunlit Fresco. Going back and doing a few of Scully’s Eastern States replays, he looks like he may be a horse who can cause some serious frustration. Misses kicks badly (as evident in both public appearances out West) which puts himself in a difficult spot over the sprint journey. Still, the way he has finished off both his trial and then his only WA race outing, behind two very sharp ones, is hard to ignore. Going to throw in here, but the aim is to not make this a common occurrence if a clear theme emerges (real Under Influence vibes). The rise to 1200 looks perfect and there is a stack of speed in this – expect Chris Parnham to ride him underneath horses here and look to weave his way through in the straight. Sunlit Fresco isn’t ‘one of mine’ (hate this saying, but feels semi-applicable here), but for once the market is allowing me to have something on. 1200 is his go, so the reasonable first up run down the 1000m chute is enough for me to at worst chop out (pending how market shapes/inside pad plays, could even make result). The map is crucial. He jumps really cleanly 80% of the time and I think at the 1200 he can be too sharp for Kelvinater early and cross that gelding. Alex Hearn rides these front running types well and you just know he’ll be in front for a long way. Big watch on Kraken Time, but happy risking until I see it. Sentimental Belle will be last in running – tough from there, but respect her last Belmont effort. Deferred might need it wetter? Little Silver and Kelvinater back to 1200? Plenty going well, but the two down the bottom look the most suited. Won’t lose on the pair.

BACK: 11. Sunlit Fresco (WIN) for 1 unit (Rated at $3.85)

Sunlit Fresco isn’t ‘one of mine’ (hate this saying, but feels semi-applicable here), but for once the market is allowing me to have something on. 1200 is his go, so the reasonable first up run down the 1000m chute is enough for me to at worst chop out (pending how market shapes/inside pad plays, could even make result). The map is crucial. He jumps really cleanly 80% of the time and I think at the 1200 he can be too sharp for Kelvinater early and cross that gelding. Alex Hearn rides these front running types well and you just know he’ll be in front for a long way.

Betting Strategy

BACK: 1. Petrouchka (WIN) for 2 units (Rated at $3.20)

We saw the 9yo Admired come from last to beat most of these at around 12 million to one a fortnight ago, so it’s no surprise I’m happy having something small on the POD horse despite the obvious queries. I don’t think many would doubt that Petrouchka is the best horse here. She’s a Belmont Guineas placegetter (behind Luvnwar), a Belmont Oaks winner and a Belmont Classic runner up. Late last year she was great behind The Boss Lady and Bonjoy and two weeks ago she savaged the line v Objectify and Street Band, in a good little 72+. Clearly the 1400-2100 is a query and she will get back for the apprentice, but there is an acceptable price for the clear class gap. $4+ gets me for a rapidly improving apprentice and a pair of trainers who can get horses ready very quickly. I find it quite amazing that Admired and Dark Looks will carry 2kg more than her. Alaskan will do Alaskan things. Can win, maps to land forward in a race without speed, but is now 2 from 27 and continues to SP pretty thin. Will be in the finish, but trust is low. Fioreyes was just about the run of the race v Admired a fortnight ago. Do they look to ride him closer to the tempo or opt for similar tactics after he clearly put in his best run of the prep? The blowout, if they take the bull by the horns and lead, is Warralea Lass. Was building nicely before a flat one last time out, she’s only led once in her life and it was an all the way win at Narrogin. I don’t feel great about this Petrouchka bet, but at $4+ against a field who were beaten by Admired, I feel choiceless.

Betting Strategy

Found this the most difficult race to get a proper read on. Essentric Nature is the obvious starting point after a reasonable first up run. This race is clearly weaker, but he does lose Pike and races after a recent setback. Isn’t a stepper and there is quite a bit of speed in this, so you are probably looking at a horse 3 or 4 back the fence for an apprentice. On Patrol is On Patrol but is probably going as well as ever. Swap his run with that of Diamond Dancer and he wins his most recent. The tempo of this race suits and the draw is semi-irrelevant for him. If forced into a bet at the time of writing it would probably be him each way at $2+ a hole. Feel he’s shown enough consistency to suggest he should run into a place again. Gi Gi Pops might be a horse the market is getting a hold of a bit too heavily? She’s going OK, but once again if she chooses to lead will cop a heap of pressure. With Discretion has some real X factor.

Belmont Track Tips