Form Analysis and The Wagering Game
Jackson Oldham provides regular tips and betting strategies across Victorian Thoroughbred racing, taking in important Spring and Autumn Carnival days, as well as all metro meetings and feature events such as the Warrnambool May racing carnival.
Oldham’s approach to studying form is as meticulous as you would expect.
“In terms of form factors, I would approach the day by looking at the expected rail position, how the track played last time and any patterns that emerged,” Oldham said.
“What is the wind on the day, what do I expect the track to do on raceday are other factors.
“If it’s a Moonee Valley or a Mornington where I think speed maps are crucial, I’ll spend more time on that.”
Oldham also emphasised the difference between tipping a runner, and deciding to bet, with other factors coming in to play late.
“Obviously tipping vs punting is very different. On the day you monitor any track bias, what scratchings occurred on the morning of the meeting, and you are constantly adjusting.
“What about the mounting yard, and any pattern of racing for the day.”
One of the unique features of Betfair is in-play betting, which is an important skill for punters to learn, and Oldham emphasised the way this can be used.
“If there is a Friday night at Moonee Valley and four of the five races have been won by the leader you can get a reaction,” he added.
“If the leader in Race six is $18 it brings them into play, and if enough people back it you can also bring lay betting into the equation.
“You have to be skillful and you have to be quick, but that’s all part of learning.”
WHAT ADVICE WOULD YOU GIVE FOLLOWERS?
Oldham spoke about how he enjoys the opportunity to help educate punters and to offer advice where he can.
“My DM’s are always open and I’m always happy to help.
“My advice would be to try and to test. Watch markets and watch races and get some sort of databases.
“I use Form King and Punting Form, but it’s important to have one. Get some data and watch the Betfair markets late.
“It’s an underrated tool. What are they backing? When you review a race you are reviewing the runs but also the market moves.
“This runner took money late, this one went $4 out to $8, what did the market like or dislike and why?
“The Betfair SP is as efficient a guide as you can have, and a really good tool to help you going forward. Even if you are not using it at the start and you are just watching that late money.”
HOW IS BETFAIR ON YOUR SIDE?
“If you are looking to trade positions, Betfair is the key,” Oldham said.
“Everywhere else is trying to win with the punter losing money. But Betfair are winning if punters are winning and turning over money. You’ve got great people on the Hub providing rating models and tools and there is more on offer than anywhere else that is for sure.”
