LAY BACK WITH BETFAIR: WAGERING & DATA WITH DAVID PFUNDT

A chance afternoon with a few mates set the wheels in motion for David Pfundt, a data specialist who hails from a farm near Beaconsfield in Tasmania.

With a background in computing and data analytics, Pfundt described himself as no more than a casual racing fan.

“My uncle did train some slow horses in Tasmania, but as a kid I probably had only a recreational interest in it,” Pfundt said.

“I did my degree in Tasmania which was a Bachelor of Computing.”

“I started with a small consulting company in Launceston.”

“I spent a few months there and applied for a job at Telstra and managed to talk my way into it,”

Cox Plate day 2015 will always be remembered as a time when Winx started arguably the most incredible run in the history of the sport, with the first of four wins in the premier weight for age race. But the day holds even more significance for Pfundt.

“Previously I followed Northerly and Sunline and I knew the Melbourne cup winners, but that was about it.”

“It wasn’t until 2015 when my mates invited me to the pub for a few bets. They had to drag me there as I wasn’t really interested.”

“It was Cox Plate day and we found a few winners and that was it for me. It wasn’t a huge day but it got the cogs going in my head.”

“I probably was more interested in the fact you could play the game and that was enjoyable. A few months later I realised you have to work to be successful at it, so I started thinking ‘where’s the data’ I can use.”

“Form king is a cloud based database and platform. It’s more than just a database. Everything is positioned for me to be able to service business to consumer clients,” Pfundt said.

“It was a calling maybe, I don’t know. In the early days when I was spending a lot of time on it and not selling anything it was really just an academic exercise.”

“But around 2020 when I started playing with sectional data and track speed that people might actually want to use.”

“I thought those technical factors and the data edge I had in my previous life made this quite unique.”

“I didn’t touch sectional data until 2020,” Pfundt said.

“Before that it was largely historical form guide data. That has since been taken over by sectionals, weight data, weather etc.

“After that it comes down to your eye and how you feel about it. Your eye can see things that might defy a stat or falsify a piece of data.”

“I start with the data and finalise it with what my eyes tell me.”

“I need to get a feel for how strong the race is and how many chances there are in it.”

“I like to turn off public odds before I do my form. I don’t want to be anchored by what I know the odds are.”

“Things like peak form. You just now the market zones in on those really fast times. Sometimes at their peril. The late markets will correct that quite often. So, it’s important to be aware of that.”

“Beware if an entire race goes too well. Peak runs for 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th etc. Be careful with those.”

Pfundt said he discovered Betfair, “early in 2016 when I started to have a regular bet on the weekends. The thing I loved immediately was that you could get the information you needed that I couldn’t get anywhere else.”

“The data was very hard to find around the place. I remember actually googling for horse racing data, thinking it has to be out here somewhere.”

“So I started scraping for my own learning activities.”

“I didn’t touch sectional data until 2020,” said Pfundt.

“Before that it was largely historical form guide data. That has since been taken over by sectionals, weight data etc.”

“After that it comes down to your eye and how you feel about it. Your eye can see things that might defy a stat or falsify a piece of data.”

“I start with the data and finalise it with what my eyes tell me. I need to get a feel for how strong is this race? And how many chances are there in it.”

“I like to turn off public odds before I do my form. I don’t want to be anchored by what I know the odds actually are.”

“Things like peak form, recent peak form. You just now the market zones in on those really fast times. Sometimes at their peril. The late markets will correct that quite often. So it’s important to be aware of that.”

“Beware if an entire race goes too well. Peak runs for 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th etc. Be careful with those,” Pfundt explained.

“It’s quite a process. I’m supported by a huge framework of formula and data I’ve built. I have a specific formula for every 200m split on track speeds at different venues,” he explained.

“Pre-race a computer makes a guess as to how strong a race is. And post-race once you have verified times available and critically sectionals, how fast did they run early? And did that change the outcomes?”

“Everything is a factor. Moving the barriers, moving the rails, on the day track bias etc.”

“If you can stamp the bias before everyone else, you can have an edge there.”

“It was a calling maybe, I don’t know. In the early days when I was spending a lot of time on it and not selling anything it was really just an academic exercise.”

“But around 2020 when I started playing with sectional data and track speed I found that people might actually want to use it.”

“I thought those technical factors and the data edge I had in my previous life made this quite unique,” Pfundt recalls.

“Hands down, Betfair is the most important wagering product in Australia for shaping and understanding markets,” he said.

“Everyone follows Betfair, and Betfair moves Australian markets. It is the only thing I have open late before a race.”

“Betfair is truly on your side. The margins in the Betfair markets are so much less. You won’t get a fairer go anywhere.”