Your Weekly A-League Tips

Your weekly A-League Predictions live here, provided from a pro punter. Exclusive to the Betfair Hub, we will be share expert insight and recommended bets for the biggest games every round.

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Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Saturday 20th October, 7:50pm AEDT, Marvel Stadium

Match Overview

Victory won the Grand Final last year from 4th on the ladder and it is fair to say they were very poor for most of the season. Enter Keisuke Honda and Ola Toivonen straight from world cup duties and they look an outstanding outfit. Added to this I think this will be a big season for “King” Kenny Athiu and the attacking threat is awesome.

City lost Ross McCormack midway through last season and felt it towards the end of the season with a lack of goals. Bruno Fornaroli was also missing for the majority of last season but has looked sharp in pre-season FFA Cup matches. They are tight defensively but will need to be at the top of their game against a Victory team with a strong front 3.

Key Statistics

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)VicCity
Win12 (4)13 (3)
Draw5 (5)4 (8)
Loss10 (4)10 (4)
Goals For43 (3)41 (4)
Goals Against37 (3)33 (2)
Total Shots For p/match12.3 (7)12.8 (6)
Shots on Target For p/m4.3 (4)4.7 (3)
Total Shots Against p/m13.8 (7)11.1 (2)
Shots on Target Against p/m4.1 (3)3.7 (2)
Clean Sheets4 (9)9 (2)
Over 2.517 (4)17 (4)
Under 2.510 (3)10 (3)
Shots on Target Conversion37% (2)33% (6)
Shots on Target Concession34% (7)33% (6)

Verdict

Two high scoring teams last season and their head to head statistics point to even more strongly to goals with 20 of 25 derbies seeing 3 goals or more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) over 3.5 goals at 2.4+ for 1 unit


Wellington Pheonix v Newcastle Jets

Sunday 21st October, 3:00pm AEDT, Wellington Regional Stadium

Match Overview

Coach Mark Rudan makes his A-League debut with Wellington and has a largely settled line-up with the exception of the addition of Englishman Stephen Taylor. He will likely have them very organised, but he is also an attacking coach and as such it is likely not much will change for Wellington home games which generally see goals.

Newcastle were fantastic last year getting all the way to the Grand Final. That loss hurt but potentially the most painful aspect may play out this season with Roy O’Donovan banned for 8 matches. That said they were without marquee Ronald Vargas for a big part of the season and as such he is like a new signing, and a good one at that.

Key Statistics

2017/18 Stats (Rank in brackets)WelNew
Win5 (9)15 (2)
Draw6 (3)5 (5)
Loss16 (10)7 (2)
Goals For31 (9)57 (2)
Goals Against55 (10)37 (3)
Total Shots For p/match13.6 (3)13.6 (4)
Shots on Target For p/m4 (7)5.8 (1)
Total Shots Against p/m14 (8)13.1 (6)
Shots on Target Against p/m5.1 (9)4.2 (4)
Clean Sheets2 (10)7 (3)
Over 2.518 (3)20 (1)
Under 2.59 (7)7 (10)
Shots on Target Conversion29% (10)37% (3)
Shots on Target Concession40% (9)32% (5)

Verdict

Both these teams feature heavily in “overs” matches last season and whilst I think Wellington will be more compact, particularly early in the season I think this match will still see goals and be relatively open

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) over 3.5 goals at 2.2+ for 1 unit

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