Your UFC 229 Betting Predictions

Conor McGregor is back. The most popular mixed martial artist of all time returns to the Octogan to face the unbeaten Lightweight Champion. It’s a perfect clash of styles and personalities. Are you with the striker or the grappler? The flair or the bear?

We preview the betting for the biggest fights and give you an unwavering prediction for the main event.

Aspen Ladd vs Tonya Evinger

We wanted to preview the Michelle Waterson vs Felice Herrig Strawweight matchup but the betting looks accurate there. Felice Herrig should be the marginal favourite against ‘Karate Hottie’ but the contest could go either way.

In the Women’s Bantamweight division, we have an interest in Aspen Ladd. The 23-year-old is only six professional fights in, but you can’t ignore her undefeated start. She also went 8-1 as an amateur.

Ladd’s opponent on the other hand, Tonya Evinger, is 37. Her last fight was a TKO loss to Cyborg in 2017. Plus the long break was because she was injured.

We’re going with youth here as Aspen Ladd should be able to press the action and accumulate points each round.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Aspen Ladd to win

Sergio Pettis vs Jussier Formiga

Another preliminary fight that has our attention.

Jussier Formiga is a submission expert from Brazil who has slightly shortened in betting markets. From $2.55 to $2.35. However, we’re going against the market.

‘The Phenom’ is the third best ranked Flyweight in the UFC, with a tonne of experience for a 25 year old. We’re expecting him to control the pace on the feet and avoid Formiga’s jiu-jitsu advantage. He should be able to grind out another decision victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sergio Pettis to win

Derrick Lewis vs Alexander Volkov

Two legitimate heavyweights collide in the cage with Alexander Volkov trying to continue his accent up the UFC rankings. The big Russian has won his last six fights but we’re not ready to write off Derrick Lewis.

This fight looks like a battle of the heavy feet and hands but Lewis could easily catch Volkov’s kicks and take it to the ground. From there he’ll accumulate points and potentially finish the fight.

This fight is a coin toss so we’ll take the market overs on Lewis.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Derrick Lewis to win

Ovince Saint Preux vs Dominick Reyes

The market has Dominick Reyes $1.40. The 9-0 Light Heavyweight is a serious fighter with tremendous upside but we can’t justify the price.

OSP has the experience advantage and we see him grinding out Reyes at the price. He’ll stick to his wrestling advantage and take this fight to the distance.

Reyes is too short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Dominic Reyes to win

Tony Ferguson vs Anthony Pettis

The Phenom’s big brother, Anthony, has arguably the toughest challenge of UFC 229. He has to take on Tony Ferguson, a man who hasn’t lost in the UFC for six years. He’ll be in the main event the next time the Lightweight strap is on the line.

We’re expecting fire works early, as Pettis can throw, but Ferguson will eventually take it to the canvas and apply his ‘d’arce choke’. You can load up at the short odds or go for extra value with the submission. We’ll take the $1.30.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Tony Ferguson to win

Khabib Nurmagomedov (c) vs Conor McGregor

Wrestler vs striker. A vintage UFC fight in the Tank Abbott vs Dan Severn mould. It’s what the UFC is built on. Only this time, the audience has never been bigger.

According to Anthony Pettis, Conor should be the defending champion, not the challenger.

they had to move it forward, but if it was true to the game, Conor would be the champion.”

“I think Conor wins,” Pettis matter-of-factly stated. “Knockout. I don’t know what round.”

Pettis isn’t the only one with an opinion. You can check out what some of the other pros are predicting too:

  • “If I had to put my house on it, I’d have to choose Khabib over Conor.” – George St Pierre
  • “Conor just has that left hand. He’s fast. He’s going to be able to use those angles.”- TJ Dillashaw
  • “I have to give the edge to Khabib.” – Eddie Alvarez
  • “Luke Rockhold says Khabib doesn’t lose a round. He just smashes everyone (at training).” – Joe Rogan
  • “I think Conor would sleep him” – Kevin Lee

The polarizing opinions confirms two things. Conor is either going to KO Khabib or he’s going to be outworked, and probably stopped, on the ground.

And haven’t we been here before? Eddie Alvarez was supposed to take down ‘Mystic Mac’. So was Jose Aldo. So was Chad Mendes. All of them knocked out inside two rounds.

However, Khabib is different. Unlike Alverez, he’s not going to trade egos on the feet. He’s going to do what everyone thinks he will and repeatedly shoot. He’ll take him down in the first, grounding and pounding the will out of the Irishman. And then he’ll do it again in the second, potentially finishing him with a rear naked choke.

The Dagestan’s biggest advantage is McGregor’s biggest weakness.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Khabib Nurmagomedov to win

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