Your Expert WA Racing Previews

We’re delighted to have Terry Leighton on the Betfair Hub as our resident WA Racing analyst, providing his Belmont Tips and Ascot Tips.

Terry, who was the resident tipster for Turf Talk, has years of Perth betting experience. You can expect his expert predictions to be on The Hub every Wednesday & Friday morning.

Go where the value is for WA Racing and head to the Betfair Exchange.


Ascot Preview – 12/10/19

Having a few issues with the world currently. How on earth does something called ‘Masked Singer’ get more coverage than the return to racing at Ascot. Masked Singer. Stop and take a few seconds to consider where the world is at. ‘Jackie O (does she not have a full last name?) brought to tears by the monsters voice’. Are you genuinely serious? In the words of Greta Thunberg; ‘HOW DARE YOU’.

I feel better now.

Finally, we are back at Ascot and if you couldn’t tell, I’m a little bit excited. Mainly to have a beer at a venue that has a roof which passes council regulations. But also, for the racing.

Traditionally opening day at Ascot can play a little on pace, especially early in proceedings but with the rail at 3m it may pay to watch the opening couple of maidens (why are there maidens on opening day?) to get a feel.


For this supplier, a max bet is 10 units.

The permanent marker has been plucked out of the pencil case early, with a thick black line going through runners 3 to 11. The mathematicians out there, will see this leave us with two winning hopes.

Bunker Buster is a serious horse who wouldn’t have been out of place in a recent Kalgoorlie Cup. Luckily for connections, they opted against the little sojourn 6 hours East, as it was an unwinnable track unless you lead or your trainers name ended with Fernie.

It’s impossible to knock his recent efforts, but if Swift Platinum does take off as expected and put a gap on these, it may well be stablemate, At The Ready who has the ability to reel off the quickest final splits.

Handled by apprentices at 7 of his 9 runs this time in, it could be argued an astute ratings camp were looking to do a bit of subtracting from his kilogram column. William Pike has ridden him only twice this campaign, with the most recent effort an eye catcher.

On a dawdling speed, he was back last on the turn, before motoring late, finishing under a length from the eventual Kalgoorlie Cup winner, Spiritual Warrior.

While there was a significant gap between Bunker Buster and At The Ready at their most recent outing, William Pike was not in the saddle. His presence on a horse of this nature, is hard to quantify by lengths.

A watch on Truly Gold to run a big race at $50+ late. Has been dying for a gate.

At around the 5 buck mark, compared to the low 2’s of Bunker Buster, I’m happy having something small on the Wizard to pick their pockets.

SELECTIONS

  • At The Ready
  • Bunker Buster
  • Truly Gold
  • Mosseratti

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – 3 units to WIN At The Ready

Found this a tricky little event to decipher, but after 7 nurofen and a new computer monitor, I’ve somewhat confidently landed on Nelson’s Flight.

Can be a difficult horse to catch, but his most recent efforts have really put the writing on the wall. Got into a blue at his penultimate start, that Ali and Foreman would have been proud of, with neither jockey willing to give an inch in a near race long bumping duel.

Cooked the race for them both (Cup Night was the other, who proved how much it took out of them by winning brilliantly next time out). Very interesting watch on the replay, as he really picked up again and found the line late.

His most recent outing was another case of getting going when seemingly beaten, climbing over the heels of the leaders.

The key to this selection is the jockey change, with Paul Harvey taking over. His last couple of outings, he’s looked like a horse who’s needed a stronger jockey and one who will give him more expansive running room.

Both attributes are at the top of the Pontiff’s CV. Should be able to tuck in just behind another willing tempo set by Beaucount and let rip before they bend with the shorter Ascot straight.

Jedaffair can win again, but was the beneficiary of a ‘right time, right place’ type run at his most recent outing, while Missile Launch is the big class dropper. From the barrier, it’s likely he’ll have a tough old run.

Velago is the definition of an enigmatic galloper, with the instructions of riding him 5 deep no cover a must if you want to retain the ride. I’ve taken him on here purely for the fact you need to be special to purposely sit deep without cover on a hot speed to win.

One runner I do want to have a little spec on here is Sovereign Trade. Was involved in a race with a fall a fortnight ago, which caused all sorts of issues. He looked to be absolutely bolting on the bend and hit the line nicely. Bernie Miller might have him back nearing his best.

Main bet Nelson’s Flight around the $7 mark and a small spec on Sovereign Trade to muscle over them late at ~$20.

SELECTIONS

  • Nelson’s Flight
  • Sovereign Trade
  • Jedaffair
  • Missile Launch

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – 3 units to WIN Nelson’s Flight

BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to WIN Sovereign Trade

The only black type event of the day has delivered a cracking bunch of three year old’s to do battle over the short-course.

There should be no shortage of speed in this event with outsiders in the field, Amarillo Rose (barrier 2) and High Range (3) unlikely to have any plans to relinquish the front.

Where this leaves the arguably more talented Simon Miller pairing of Amelia’s On Fire (12) and Platinum Bullet (13) remains a mystery.  My guess would be, that it ends ugly.

The speed map really does make this an intriguing race as you’d suspect the above lack the quality to absorb the pressure and have enough left in the tank to hold out the quality closers.

Miss West Coast and Celebrity Queen look the stand outs at the weights, with Celebrity Queen the one with the draw and the jock to get this done.

She showed reasonable gate speed on debut, when settling close to the speedy Some Sort (who made that debut form look handy) and should be able to park around three pairs back in this.

William Pike is riding like a man possessed at the moment and only needs a slither of daylight to create a hole.  Main rivals Miss West Coast and Dig Deep are likely to be giving her a big head start.  If the gaps don’t appear for Pike, they’ll be the two flooding home late.

I’m going to tip the shock of the century, with Bob Peters to claim the first three year old feature of the Ascot season.  With some quality horses engaged, I’d want to shop at 2.5+.

SELECTIONS

  • Celebrity Queen
  • Miss West Coast
  • Dig Deep
  • Jericho Missile

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – 6 units to WIN Celebrity Queen

Lady Sass has always been a well-regarded type, but went to another level last campaign. While only winning midweek, her efforts had an air of arrogance and class about them which come with a horse who is about to rise through the grades at a rapid rate.

First up, she was chucked out for a bit of a midweek pipe opener, when the hyphenator only needed a couple hundred metres of clear air along the rail, to make her opposition look ordinary.

Since the start of her last campaign her only losses have come in races at 2200m+. Her strength is her closing speed and I don’t think she’ll end up making a stayer as she loses a lot of that sprint from her legs. Second up at the 1400m here, I reckon she has panels on this field.

The reason we’re getting $5 and not $2.50, is the (19) next to her name. She’ll jump from the outside gate. I don’t necessarily think she has to go back to dead last, as was witnessed by her second up victory last campaign.

Clint Johnston-Porter who could not have ridden her better during their short affiliation, rolled her forward and found a spot just behind them. Again, she made them look second rate.

There will be question marks as to how much speed is in this event. I actually think it’ll be pretty willing, and there’s no stars amongst them.

Sharpbob (barrier 3) rolls forward with Fork Handles (8) and I am expecting Lorentinio (13), Adrian Makfi ((16) after rolling forward and running 2nd a fortnight ago at 100/1, the tactics will not change) and even Comparative (18) to all roll the dice. It could end up being a mess up front.

Being the final event on the card, it really does allow CJP to assess the conditions of the day and ride this smart mare accordingly. If she doesn’t win the race, we will be referring to her as either the ‘hard luck story’ or the ‘best run’ of the day. Let’s hope we are talking about the win of the day.

Peppijack should get the run of the race and is clearly the danger if reproducing his first up effort. At around the 6 or 7 dollar mark, he’s a long enough quote to save.

The stable have referred to Lady Sass as a potential Railway horse. Let’s see if they’re right.

SELECTIONS

  • Lady Sass
  • Peppijack
  • Fork Handles
  • Express Flirt

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – 6 units to WIN Lady Sass

BACK (WIN) – 1.5 units to WIN Peppijack


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 723.50

Total Units Returned: 572.11

ROI: -20.92%

Despite the unfavourable ROI, results are measured at the Betfair Starting Price. As any Terry follower will know, these horses are often well found in the market and often start significantly shorter than earlier in the day. If you used Betfair Live on every recommendation, your ROI could improve these results.


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