Your Expert NBL Tips

Our local basketball experts never lost their love for the NBL and will be on hand all season to share their exclusive NBL tips. Their focus will be on the Thursday and Friday night matches and we’ll aim to have these predictions available every Wednesday on the Betfair Hub.

We’re pleased to share that you’ll find all the primary NBL betting markets on the Betfair Exchange too. Go where the value is for your win, total and line bets this season.

Perth vs Sydney

The last time these two teams met was one of only two losses for the year for the Wildcats going down to the Kings by 5 points. That was without Bryce Cotton would be the league MVP at this stage of the season.

This will be a high quality match up, with Perth looking to put further space at the top of ladder behind them and try and edge closer to home court in the play offs, and for the Kings they will look to continue their red hot form having won 7 of their last 9 but not having won in Perth since 2008.

This looks to be a classic battle of offence and defence, with Perth averaging 92.3 compared to 87.5 for the Kings. Both sides play very good defence with Perth leading the league with 82.9 points against and Sydney next best with 83.5 points against.

Bryce Cotton is a huge inclusion, and when you add him to a well drilled outfit that execute their offence so well and with a solid home court advantage  it’s hard to see the Wildcats getting beaten here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth $1.40 or above

Brisbane vs Adelaide

Brisbane are coming off a winning double last round over Melbourne United, including winning by 16 in the latest match, whilst Adelaide had a heartbreaking 1 point defeat to Illawarra

The Bullets have definitely got their defence working in the last few weeks and now have the 3rd best points allowed in the league with 88.4 but they need to lift their scoring only collecting  89.5 PPG. Adelaide have a negative differential scoring 94.2 PPG but conceding 94.6 points against.

Brisbane had a very even spread of contributors in the last game and will look for that to continue here with a slight increase in output from Cadee they look the likely winners against an Adelaide team which rely heavily on Nathan Sobey .

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brisbane $1.70 or above

Sydney vs Perth

In the preseason this match would’ve been seen as a potential Grand Final preview, but for the unexpected reason, that looks way off here. The Wildcats are absolutely flying at the minute. They sit atop the ladder, having only lost one game all season, and are scoring 94 PPG and only allowing 84.5 PPG, with a gap more than double any other team in the comp.

The Kings on the other hand were seen to be the pre season favourites, with the addition of Bogut, and he has certainly helped them on the defensive end, with Sydney only allowing 86.2 PPG, however they are only scoring 90.4 PPG and this has been the area that has let them down.

Sydney went down last week in an all time classic against Melbourne by 2 points and the Wildcats took care of the Breakers twice. Perth have the clear scoring advantage, with Bryce Cotton leading the league with 24.2 PPG and surrounded by a great supporting cast. The Kings rely too heavily on Jerome Randal with 21.5 PPG and the it drops right off with Lisch averaging 15.1.

Sound the wrong favourite klaxon here folks, because there is no way the Kings should be favs based on recent form. Even if Bryce Cotton doesn’t play tonight being under an injury cloud, im happy to take the value on Perth here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth $1.85 or above

Cairns vs Illawarra

Very hard to get inspired by this meeting of the two worst teams in the comp. Both teams beat the Adelaide 36er’s last week, and both would love back to back wins.

Cairns have been inept on offence, only averaging 86.4 PPG, whilst conceding 94.3 PPG and the Hawks have been slightly better on offence scoring 90.6 PPG but their putrid defence has allowed the league worst 97.1 PPG.

The real shining light for Cairns this season has been Melo Trimble. He’s averaging 24 PPG and is an absolute joy to watch but has no real support around him. Illawarra has no real stand out on offence and that has held them back this year,

Cairns are at home but the don’t inspire much confidence, and Illawarra have been very average over the last couple of weeks.

Betting Strategy

No Bet.

Brisbane VS Illawarra

This match is the definition of a do or die battle. Both teams have struggled in recent times and losing this match really will really put the play offs out of the picture for the loser.

Brisbane have been decent lately, hanging tough with Melbourne last week before the class took over. Illawarra on the other hand got blown apart by Adelaide to the tune of 25 points last week, and they are also in the look ahead situation with Adelaide back on deck on Sunday.

The Bullets have been on a 3 game losing streak but have a 16 day break after this game, so will want to go on the break with some confidence and they’re in front of their home fans.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brisbane $1.6 or better

New Zealand VS Perth

The greatest rivalry of the past decade in the NBL is renewed here. They traded championships with Perth winning 2010,14,16&17, with New Zealand winning 2011,12,13&15. Perth currently sit on top of the ladder and have only dropped one game so far for the season. They have done this by having both the best offence 93.9 points and the best defence only allowing 83.3.

New Zealand have been a muddling team only scoring 89.9 PPG while allowing 91.9. There is a key stat here that is overly effecting the price in the match. New Zealand have won their last 5 at home and Perth have only ever won at Spark Arena once, and that was back in 2013. Perth are rolling at the minute and there is no way they shouldn’t be favourites

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth $1.85 or Better

Adelaide VS Cairns

Cairns super star Melo Trimble was probably responsible for the play of the season last week, when he pulled off the huge 4 point play in the Taipans narrow overtime loss to Perth at Home. Adelaide are full of confidence after crushing Illawarra by 25, and now play in front of their home crowd.

The key battle in this match will be the point guard battle between Trimble and Nathan Sobey, who had a triple double the last time these two teams played. If Sobey plays any where near that level here expect a comfortable 36ers Victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Adelaide $1.35 or better

New Zealand Breakers v Melbourne United

Both of these teams got out of jail last Sunday. The Breakers were saved by an Abercrombie jump shot late in the game to win by a point over the Bullets, however they should’ve never been in that position after leading by as many as 23 in the 2nd quarter.

For the Breakers to be competitive in this match, they will need a similar performance from Patrick Richard, who had 21 points including 6/11 from beyond the arch.

United were also 7 point winners on Sunday in a come from behind win over the Cairns Taipans. This was largely due to the huge performance of Casper Ware who had 34 points and 6 assists and set up the game winner.

Another performance of note was that of Mitch McCarron who had 16 points, and this helped the reigning champs start to look like title contenders again.

Melbourne look to be gathering momentum this season and look to have too much class for the Breakers, home court helps them but not enough to get them over the line

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Melbourne at $1.70 or better

Melbourne United v Brisbane Bullets

By the time Sunday comes around, United are going to be exhausted and this looks a perfect opportunity for the Bullets to capitalise.

Brisbane have been the surprise team this season, playing great team ball and if it wasn’t last second daggers from Tom Abercrombie and Bryce Cotton, they’d be 6-3.

United will be coming back from a grueling New Zealand trip and while they may have enough in the tank to just hold on for a win like they did against Cairns, the line looks really appealing here for the Bullets.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bullets +6.5 for 2 units

Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United

Another peculiar quirk of the fixture sees Round 5 open on Thursday night with the third meeting of these two teams already this season.

United have won both games, the first being the Quadruple Overtime classic in Round 1 and winning by 6 in Round 3, where the Hawks were as far as 22 behind before fighting back.

Sadly that has been the story of the season so far for the Hawks, having lapses during games, where they fall into a bad hole, but always fight back before coming up short.

That trend should continue here and even though the Hawks are at home, expect another United victory to follow up on their Cup Eve win over the Kings. No Goulding just means a boost to the price.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Melbourne United at $1.60 or better

New Zealand Breakers v Cairns Taipans

A couple of the league strugglers meet here, both desperate for a win. The Breakers were good in their last home game beating Adelaide by 20.

Contrast of 2 styles here, New Zealand are last in the league for scoring averaging 86.2 PPG while Cairns are the worst in the league in defending, conceding 92.2 PPG, but they have no problem scoring averaging 87.8 PPG.

It has been hard not to be impressed with Melo Trimble so far the season as he leads the league in points, and with a little bit of support from those around him, it could possibly lead to an upset.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Cairns at $2.85 or better

Perth Wildcats v Brisbane Bullets

Brisbane have been flying in the last couple weeks, with a win against the Wildcats in Brisbane, then beating Adelaide both home and away.

The key to this game will be 3 point shooting. The Bullets have been on fire in this department, shooting 38.9% as a team. This has seen them put up scores of 100/108/93 in their last 3 games. They have made 41 more 3’s than any other team.

There looks to be a real opportunity here for the Bullets and with import Lamar Patterson getting his dog out of his hand luggage and spending a week practising with the team, they may be able to over the tough trip to Perth.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brisbane at $3.50 or better

Melbourne United v Sydney Kings

It’s the match-up we’ve all been waiting for since the start of the season and we’re getting fantastic odds on the Sydney Kings here. United have been their usual selves on offence but on the other end, they’ve been poor.

The Kings are rolling now led by Andrew Bogut who is just bullying opposing centres. Boone is good enough to keep him honest but if Bogut gets involved early as a facilitator, he won’t be able to stay close to the rim.

The gamble to play Chris Goulding against the Taipans didn’t pay off, only playing 5 minutes when they ended up winning by double digits. Even if he does play tonight, chasing around Kevin Lisch when not 100% is going to be a mammoth task.

Ware and Randle cancel each other out but i just can’t see United outperforming in all the other match-ups. Take the Kings.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney Kings to Win for 3 Units

Brisbane Bullets v Adelaide 36ers

It’s a bit difficult to get a read on the Bullets at the moment. They’re 2-3 yet the two wins came against NZ on the road and Perth at home, both teams who are in the second tier behind the Sydney Kings.

Their problem is scoring, averaging 81 a game which is by far the lowest in the league and I expect the 36ers to be too strong here. They won’t have an import sorted before the game and even though Alonzo Gee provided nothing offensively, he’s still a loss on the other end.

The 36ers have been a little up and down but I just can’t see the Bullets scoring enough to keep it close. The line looks good.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Adelaide 36ers -3.5 for 2 Units

Sydney Kings v Illawarra Hawks

The Hawks want to be the team that dominates the paint and they’re going to have their work cut out against the Kings who are building very nicely after a slow start.

The Taipans took the Kings to OT last week off the back of 17 second chance points but I can’t see the Kings letting that happen here against the Hawks. They were down 20 to United on Monday and only got back into the game off fatigue.

The Hawks struggled to guard Melbourne with half the offensive firepower the Kings will have here. I expect them led by their stellar back court to make it three wins in a row here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sydney Kings -5.5 for 1 Unit

Brisbane Bullets v Perth Wildcats

Round three opens up on Thursday night with the Perth Wildcats travelling across country to take on the Brisbane Bullets. Perth remain undefeated and sit atop the ladder with three wins, whilst Brisbane has only one win, catching New Zealand off guard to start the season.

Brisbane somehow need to find 15 points to turn around the margin that Perth beat them by last week.

Bryce Cotton was the star again for the Cats with 28 points, 4 Assists and 3 Rebounds and was backed up by Nick Kay 16 Points 10 Rebounds and Martin scoring all his 12 points from beyond the Arc.

Perth have shot to the top of my power ratings and even though this game is on the road, it would be a major surprise to see the Bullets win this. It’s not always wise to tip road favourites but this looks a great spot for Perth.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth Wildcats at $1.45 or above

Cairns Taipans v Adelaide 36ers

This looks to be a very even match up. Cairns have had some fluctuations in their form so far, whilst Adelaide have been very solid and nearly pinched last Sundays game against Melbourne United on the road.

Adelaide are on the road again heading to Cairns but may be encouraged by Illawarra beating the Taipans by 11 on the weekend.

This game looks very even and im happy to stay out here. No bet.

Adelaide 36ers v Sydney Kings

After an unbelievable Round 1 of the NBL, we bounce straight into Round 2 on Friday night with the Adelaide 36er’s hosting the much hyped Sydney Kings. Adelaide have owned the Kings recently, winning the last 10 meetings and 14 of the last 15.

They meet last week in Sydney in Bogut’s league debut, but it was one to forget for the big man, with an 94-83 loss. Bogut did however control the glass with 14 boards and 4 blocks.

It was a wonderful Blue Collar effort by the 36er’s who had great contribution’s from Johnson, Sobey, Wiley and Drmic, while the Kings were lead by Randle with 28 points.

We were left with some real questions about the Kings. Can Gaze coach? Can Bogut score? Are there enough pieces around Randle? The market seems to still have a fair bit of hype built into it.

That leads to a great opportunity in this game. There is no way known the Kings should be favourites on the road. When you mix the recent form, Sydney still coming together and gelling a team and the Adelaide home crowd, this looks a great spot for the 36er’s

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Adelaide at $1.80 or above

Illawara Hawks v Melbourne United

Melbourne United performed well in North America, with narrow loses to both the Philadelphia 76er’s before running out of gas against the Toronto Raptors. United have a very settled line up, who started slowly last season but they look to have overcome any chemistry issues, that slowed their roll at the start of last season.

Illawarra have added a few pieces for this season and that makes them very interesting. They added Dave Andersen as well as Todd Blanchfield and Cedric Jackson from Melbourne.

The key battle here will be on the glass. Josh Boone averages 9.4 Rebounds per game, so AJ Ogilvy who averages 7.7 rebounds per game will need to set up to try and control the game. The area that United have the edge is 3 point shooting, with Chris Goulding leading the way.

With a more NBA emphasis on coaching and a focus on the three ball, this gives them a clear edge.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Melbourne United at $1.50 or above

New Zealand Breakers v Brisbane Bullets

The most anticipated NBL season in living memory kicks of tonight, across the ditch.

Coming off the back of a hugely successful pre-season tournament in the USA against NBA opposition, interest in tonight’s double header will be enormous.

The Breakers enjoy a huge home court advantage and with the loud fans behind them and Tom Abercrombie just 16 points away from the all time scoring record, this looks a great spot to start the season.

The Bullets should improve this season but we can’t see them beating New Zealand at home.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New Zealand Breakers at $1.40+

Adelaide 36ers v Perth Wildcats

Clash of traditional rivals, who renew hostilities after the 36er’s beat the Wildcats by a single point in last years semi-final.

A lot has been made of Perth losing to the Utah Jazz by 58 points. However, few conversations acknowledge that they pushed another NBA franchise, the Denver Nuggets, and only lost by eight points.

Bryce Cotton and the Perth Wildcats look value here and we’re backing them at odds of $2.20 and above.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Perth Wildcats at $2.20+

Extra Resources

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