Your Expert NBL Tips

Our local basketball experts never lost their love for the NBL and will be on hand all season to share their exclusive NBL tips.

They will be previewing three games per round on the Betfair Hub.

We’re pleased to share that you’ll find all the primary NBL betting markets on the Betfair Exchange too. Go where the value is for your head to head, total and line bets this season.

A maximum bet will be 3 units.

Perth Wildcats v Brisbane Bullets

The Wildcats get the chance to avenge their home loss to the Breakers last week when they host Brisbane on Friday night and I can’t see them having too many issues in doing so. While Perth have won just two of their last four, they are a significantly deeper and better team than their Bullets counterparts.

The hosts have been comfortably the best team this season, owning a net rating of 8.8, while the Bullets are third-last at -3.3 and Lamar Patterson’s continued poor production means that the visitors have quite a low ceiling this season.

The Cats also have an amazing record at home, having covered the number at a 62% clip since 2013 which makes them a very tempting bet on Friday. Perth have won 11 of their last 13 games, with eight of those 11 wins coming by 7+ points. All Perth need to do is contain Nathan Sobey and they should be en route to a routine win.

BACK — Perth -6.5 for 2 units

Brisbane Bullets v NZ Breakers

The Breakers were on the wrong side of several officiating calls in their loss to Melbourne on Thursday night, seeing the Kiwis’ losing streak extend to four games, and I forecast that streak growing to five when they take on Brisbane on Saturday.

The Bullets beat the Breakers by 21 points a week ago and will have had a full seven days’ break to prepare for the rematch, putting them in good position to notch up another win. They’ve won eight of their last 13 at the Armory and 10 of their last 16 there when jumping as favourites.

Nathan Sobey and Vic Law have proven to be one of the league’s best all-round pairings and with Colton Iverson under an injury cloud, it’s possible that the Breakers’ already sizeable injury list is going to grow for Saturday’s clash.

There are just too many things going against NZ at the moment and the $1.70 on offer for the Bullets is value.

BACK — Brisbane to win for 2 units

Perth Wildcats v Adelaide 36ers

Round 10 comes to a close on Monday night when the Wildcats host the 36ers and I’m eyeing up the under in the total points market.

The Wildcats have been on a roll, claiming the NBL Cup and collecting eight wins from their last nine games, and imperative to their hot run has been their defence, which is ranked #2 in the league since the beginning of February.

I struggle to see where Adeliade will generate consistent scoring from with star playmaker Josh Giddey out of this game with an ankle injury. Yes, Brandon Paul has looked good and scored efficiently in his two games, but himself and Daniel Johnson are the only two Sixers capable of generating offence.

All things considered, I struggle to see Adelaide scoring more than 80 points which makes the under at a line of 178.5 points a pretty appealing bet.

BACK — Under 178.5 for 2 units

Brisbane Bullets v Adelaide 36ers

Brisbane are the form team of the NBL right now and while their price looks about right to win the game, the total looks a bit high.

The Bullets are the number one team for pace in the league with the 36ers coming in 6th. With Adelaide so poor offensively, they’ll need to take care of the ball and limit fast break points to be a winning chance tonight. In other words, play at a snail’s pace.

If Adelaide is serious about winning this game, they’ll do everything possible to make sure this isn’t a track meet. I think they can be competitive enough to make sure this one stays under.

BACK — Under 177.5 for 2 units

New Zealand Breakers v Cairns Taipans

Cairns has been incredibly disappointing in this NBL Season but they have a great chance to start turning things around again tonight against the Breakers.

The Breakers have certainly found their groove over the last three games. The absence of Patterson has unleashed their full potential which is some Ewing theory areas right now for them. Their shooting levels however are just completely unsustainable and I expect a drop-off tonight with the length of Cairns causing them plenty of issues.

Look for Oliver to get a bit of form back against Iverson who should be far too slow to hang with him and for the Taipans to win at a good price.

BACK — Cairns at $2.10 or better for 2 units

South East Melbourne Phoenix v Melbourne United

Phoenix fans must be salivating at the thought of their chances going forward with the pending debut of Ryan Broekhoff. He won’t be playing tonight but they’re great odds to knock off United.

Melbourne, as mentioned multiple times this season, has not been impressive. They’ve just done what they had to do, racked up wins and coasted along, knowing what the end goal is for them. Goulding looked great in his return in their loss to the Bullets and will get more minutes tonight but could disrupt their offence slightly as he gets back up to speed. No Hopson and White as well are key losses.

The Phoenix has always been able to match it with United ever since they entered the league and I can’t see a blowout tonight.

BACK — Phoenix +3.5 for 2 units

Cairns Taipans v Sydney Kings

Cairns, simply put, have been awful this season. According to SpatialJam, they have a -8.8 net rating and come into this game off three straight losses, including a 20-point blowout against Brisbane on Sunday.

Sydney’s record isn’t all that impressive at 5-6, but their 5.8 net rating is good for third in the league and their bench is giving them good production which I think is where the Kings will win this game.

The Taipans have covered just three of their 12 games in NBL21 and Sydney are building well, having covered five of their last seven. Also interesting is that Sydney have covered 19 of 29 against Cairns since 2013 — I think the Kings are the clear bet here.

BACK — Kings -3.5 for 1 unit

New Zealand Breakers v Brisbane Bullets

NZ were fantastic in their latest win over the 36ers, winning by a ridiculous 44 points but the market has completely overreacted to that and the Bullets look a great betting opportunity.

Brisbane is going very well themselves, fresh off a 20-point win over the Taipans where they had 51 bench points. That’s going to be the key for me as NZ struggle big time when both Websters aren’t on the floor.

The only reason I can see why the odds are so close is that NZ has had an extra day off and to me, with no travel happening, that’s completely irrelevant here.

There won’t be much defence played here but I expect a pretty professional performance from the Bullets and the Breakers to crash back to reality.

BACK — Bullets at $1.72 or better for 3 units

Sydney Kings v New Zealand Breakers

The Kings form has been up and down a fair bit over the season but I think their professionalism will get them a good win tonight over the Breakers.

Sydney is the 2nd best defensive team in the league and NZ are the worst offensive team in the league. Coming off the back of 106 and 94 points scored in their last two, they’ve found a nice rhythm offensively and I don’t see how NZ can stop Casper Ware over 40 minutes.

You have to feel for the Breakers and the situation they’re in. They’ve sacrificed plenty to be apart of the season and the NBL Cup, and it’s not really working for them. I can’t see it turning around tonight.

BACK — Kings -4.5 for 2 units

Adelaide 36ers v Melbourne United

United look a bit short to beat the 36er’s tonight but the total looks a bit high in a game against two top defensive teams.

Melbourne have done what they had to across the season so far and have been performing well with their current injury list. They should win again but the scoring power is still an issue for them at the moment and the pace should be quite slow as Adelaide look to punish them inside with Humphries in the form of his life.

Adelaide is once again on the quick back up so fatigue may play a part here late. I see this playing out similar to their Round 1 clash. Take the unders.

BACK — Under 171.5 for 1 unit

Adelaide 36ers v South East Melbourne Phoenix

I couldn’t have been more impressed when the Phoenix fought back against the Bullets and blew them away after the first quarter. It’s a sign of the form they’re in and I see them continuing that tonight.

Adelaide is regressing back to where most teams had them before the season started. Beaten by almost 20 in their last two, their offence has completely sputtered and their defence hasn’t kept them in games.

With the firepower all over the court from the Phoenix tonight, I don’t see how they’ll be able to keep up. S.E have scored over 90 in five of their last six. Adelaide has done that twice all season.

At home, with Creek firing on all cylinders, the Phoenix should be too good here.

BACK — S.E Phoenix -3.5 for 3 units

Cairns Taipans v Illawarra Hawks

At 2-6, Cairns are on struggle street. Their task gets no easier on Saturday night when they kick off the NBL Cup against the 5-2 Hawks and I think the Taipans are in for another loss.

Cairns are currently a league-worst -6.5 in net rating while the Hawks are behind just United with a 6.3 net rating. That’s a significant disparity and considering this game is at a neutral venue, I think Illawarra’s handicap should be significantly bigger. Tyler Harvey has been playing at an elite level and Justinian Jessup has warmed into the season nicely to provide the Hawks with a major offensive weapon.

Scott Machado and Cam Oliver have been about as advertised but their supporting cast has been nowhere near as strong as what it was last season. That needs to change if the Snakes are to make any major mark on the NBL Cup but I don’t forecast that happening anytime soon. The Hawks are the bet on Saturday.

BACK — Illawarra -3.5 for 2 units

Brisbane Bullets v Adelaide 36ers

The big talking point heading into this game is the potential debut for new Adelaide import Jeremy Kendle, with the prospect of him going up against his former club in his first game as a 36er. A solid but not great import, Kendle should be an upgrade on Donald Sloan, though that import switch shouldn’t have too much of an influence on my tip here — the over.

These two sides have played with intent on offence to start the season, ranking second (Adelaide) and third (Brisbane) in pace through four rounds, per SpatialJam. Not only do they push the ball, but they score it with solid efficiency, with the Bullets and Sixers both in the top four for true shooting %.

Brisbane games this season are averaging 187 points (including one OT game) and since the start of last year, games at the Armory have also seen an average of 187 points — good for an 11-8 overs record. Happy to go with the over at what is a low line.

BACK — Over 173.5 for 2 units

Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United

It’s already been a great week for the Hawks, getting their Illawarra brand back into their name as it should be and I think they’ll keep the celebration going with a win over United.

United, as mentioned last week, have not impressed as of yet, despite their undefeated record. They squeaked out a win against Perth and the 13 point margin over the Bullets flattered them with it being a 1 possession game with three minutes to go.

The problem for United here is their injuries to Goulding and Illi. I don’t think they’re going to be able to cover for them offensively against this Hawks defence. On the road, undermanned and still nowhere near their top gear, I marked them much longer than their current price.

BACK — Hawks to win for 2 units at $1.84

Adelaide 36ers

Ins: Donald Sloan (I), Tony Crocker (I), Isaac Humphries, Josh Giddey (NS), Sunday Dech, Keanu Pinder, Conner Henry (coach).

Outs: Jerome Randle (I), Eric Griffin (I), Ramone Moore (I), Harry Froling, Anthony Drmic, Obi Kyei (retired), Kevin White, Joey Wright (coach).

The inclusions for the 36ers on paper were some of the best in the NBL on paper. Sloan and Crocker both look physical guards who will take no time settling in. Humphries is a nice addition, no matter what they do with him in the rotation. I share the sentiment of a few who wonder how he and Johnson will play together but it could work fine. Dech was a great piece to add as well.

Unfortunately, there just seems to be nothing outside of those four players. It’s hard to know what their identity is going to be as well. Long gone are the days of Jerome Randle and scoring 100 points every time at home. Josh Giddey their Next Stars addition looks like he could be exciting but he can’t be relied on to carry them along.

Marking them the outsiders of the competition is fair. They’re not a Back or Lay proposition to start the season but they are a team we’ll be watching closely.

Brisbane Bullets

Ins: Vic Law (I), Orlando Johnson (I), Anthony Drmic, Harry Froling, Tanner Krebs, Tamuri Wigness

Outs: Lamar Patterson (I), Will Magnay, EJ Singler (I), Cam Gliddon, Taylor Braun (I), Reuben Te Rangi, Mika Vukona

Huge outs of Patterson and Magnay have left a massive hole in the Bullets, along with Gliddon and Te Rangi jumping ship and rumours swirling on Andrej Lemanis maybe not coaching out the season.

For their inclusions, Froling can be handy and Drmic is certainly not a downgrade on the version of Cam Gliddon we’ve seen the last few seasons. Their imports in Orlando Johnson and Vic Law look good on paper but the Bullets, outside of finding Patterson, have been responsible for some of the worst recruitments in the league ever since they returned. Time will tell on how much they can add to their ability to win.

Tamuri Wigness is one to watch as well who could potentially cause teams a lot of havoc off the bench. He’s modelled his game off Patty Mills and could be a shout for Rookie of the Year with enough playing time.

There isn’t a team in the league who has a bigger gap between their best and worst and that leaves a lot of question marks on the Bullets heading into the season. They’re a no bet and they won’t win the title, but we’re leaning that they’ll be far better than their $30 price on the Exchange.

Cairns Taipans

Ins: Mojave King (NS), Jordan Ngatai.

Outs: DJ Newbill (I).

Cairns enter NBL21 as second favourite and have the benefit of roster stability. Next Star player Nojave King, who impressed in preseason, and former Breaker Jordan Ngatai are the only two notable additions, while their only major loss — and a major loss it is — comes in the form of All-NBL Second Team member and Best Defensive Player winner DJ Newbill.

The Taipans finished sixth in the league in offence last year and fourth in defence, good for a 1.8 net rating, on the back of standout seasons from Newbill, fellow imports Scott Machado and Cam Oliver, rookie Kouat Noi and Majok Deng. With all but Newbill back for NBL21, expect growth from the Snakes.

Roster stability is a huge advantage, given the amount of movement across the league in the offseason, and Cairns have one of the deepest rosters in the NBL. Given that they finished 16-12 last season, I’m picking a few more wins for the Taipans in NBL21 and I will be shocked if they miss the top four.

Melbourne United

Ins: Scotty Hopson (I), Jock Landale, Yudai Baba, Jack White.

Outs: Shawn Long (I), Melo Trimble (I), Stanton Kidd (I), Alex Pledger, Tohi Smith-Milner.

Melbourne United are the market favourites to win NBL21 after a great offseason. Last season’s semi-finalists recruited star import Scotty Hopson to go with Boomer Jock Landale, former Duke player Jack White and Japan international Yudai Baba. Although they lost Shawn Long, Melo Trimble, Stanton Kidd, Alex Pledger and Tohi Smith-Milner, the class that they have brought in indicates that United are the team to beat this year.

After a 1-4 start to last season, Melbourne then won six straight before a rollercoaster of results, going 4-4 in their last eight games, to finish fourth. They lost 1-2 to Sydney in a nail-biting semi-final series, finishing second in the league in defensive rating and third in the league in offensive rating.

Expectations are sky-high for Melbourne going into this NBL season and rightly so. They aren’t used to being without an import PG but Mitch McCarron is capable of filling those duties and gaining a local the quality of Jock Landale is a massive advantage. Still with an import slot to fill should they wish, this already strong United team could potentially get better and I have them as clear title favourites.

BACK — Melbourne United to win at anything above $3.50 for 2 units

New Zealand Breakers

Ins: Lamar Patterson (I), Colton Iverson (I), Tai Webster, Rasmus Bach

Outs: Scotty Hopson (I), Brandon Ashley (I), Sek Henry (I), Jordan Ngatai, RJ Hampton, Jordan Ngatai, Tom Vodanovich, Ethan Rusbatch, Ater Majok.

NZ underachieved a little last season and had problems all year with their roster and ownership but they’ve reloaded and are set for a big crack at the title this year.

Scotty Hopson is no doubt a big loss but Lamar Patterson is an effective scorer who should be able to produce the same amount of offence, especially down the stretch. Their big man rotation of Iverson, Delany and Loe should be one of the best in the NBL and the likes of Abercrombie and Webster are proven commodities.

The price here on the Breakers is astounding though. The Breakers are clearly the team that is the most affected due to the shape of the season schedule and because of this, they are an automatic Lay. There is a very significant chance that they play zero games in New Zealand this season, something that no other team will experience.

With their home record so good over the last decade, taking that away is a huge loss. Lay them up to $9 and we can look to trade out later in the season because the talent is clearly there.

LAY — NZ Breakers up to $9 for 3 units.

Perth Wildcats

Ins: John Mooney (I), Todd Blanchfield, Jarred Bairstow, Kevin White

Outs: Nick Kay, Terrico White (I), Dario Hunt (I), Miles Plumlee (I), Damian Martin (retired), Rhys Vague

After winning yet another NBL championship, the Perth Wildcats gear up for another campaign. Bryce Cotton returns after initially opting out, though he will be coming back to a vastly different roster from that of the NBL20-winning side. Nick Kay and Terrico White are the big losses from the side, but also in the departing group are club legend Damian Martin, Miles Plumlee, Majok Majok (injured) and Rhys Vague.

The Wildcats enjoyed a 5-1 October to get their NBL20 season off to a flyer and also finished the season with a hiss and a roar, going 6-1 in their last seven games to finish 19-9 — good for second on the ladder. Cotton again orchestrated a strong offence, finishing first in the league in that metric, though they were sixth defensively.

Cotton will be up there with the best offensive players in the league again but his supporting cast, as mentioned above, has been severely depleted this season. I will be shocked if Perth finish a top-three offence and their defence isn’t shaping up to be overly strong either. It’s not all doom and gloom, though. The fortress that they have built at RAC Arena will help them bolster their record and they should be contending for a playoff position at the business end of the competition, but they don’t look to be classy enough to go all the way.

South East Melbourne Phoenix

Ins: Ben Moore (I), Keifer Sykes (I), Cam Gliddon, Reuben Te Rangi, Yanni Wetzel.

Outs: John Roberson (I), Tai Wesley (retired), Ben Madgen (retired), Keith Benson (I), Jaye Crockett (I), Devondrick Walker (I), Dan Trist.

The South East Melbourne Phoenix enter their second season with a mixture of familiarity and fresh faces as they look to improve on a mediocre start to life in the NBL. The good news is that Mitch Creek returns. The bad news is that sharpshooter John Roberson and Tai Wesley headline their list of departing players.

After a 4-1 start to the season, including an opening night win over United, things were looking rosy for the Phoenix. However, they would go on to win only five of their remaining 23 games, finishing the season on an eight-game losing streak. Defence was the Phoenix’s main struggle in 2020, finishing last in the league in that metric, though they somewhat made up for it offensively with the league’s second-best offensive rating.

New imports Keifer Sykes and and Ben Moore will need to provide significant impact on both ends of the floor for this Phoenix side to be much of a hope of playing postseason ball. Depth looks like it will again be an issue for this SEM side and they just don’t look to have the squad to kick it with the big boys in NBL21.

Sydney Kings

Ins: Jarell Martin (I), Angus Glover, Dejan Vasiljevic, Tom Vodanovich, Adam Forde (coach)

Outs: Jae’Sean Tate (I), Andrew Bogut (retired), Kevin Lisch (retired), Deshon Taylor (I), Will Weaver (coach)

The Kings would feel hard done by that they didn’t get a chance to legitimately win the NBL title last season but they’re going to find it hard to get back into that position again. Departures of Bogut, Tate and Cooks being injured, along with Will Weaver departing has left the Kings with Casper Ware to shoulder the heavy load.

Casper is good enough to get them back to the playoffs by himself but it’s going to take a lot. Didi Louzada will continue his development and be a good option on the wing. Moller and Newly are fine players and their new import, Jarell Martin will look to make his mark like every other big man who comes to the NBL.

They were the number 1 ranked defence last season and near the bottom for offence. I expect that to flip on its head this season. They aren’t a back or lay proposition early in the season but if it turns out they’re winning games without Casper turning into prime Iverson, we’ll look to get involved in the season.

The Hawks

Ins: Justin Simon (I), Tyler Harvey (I), Justinian Jessup (NS), Deng Adel, Cameron Bairstow, Max Darling, Deng Deng, Isaac White, Brian Goorjian (coach).

Outs: LaMelo Ball, Aaron Brooks (I), Darington Hobson (I), Todd Blanchfield, Josh Boone, Sunday Dech, Tim Coenraad (retired), Angus Glover, David Andersen, Matt Flinn (coach).

The Hawks have been on a serious rollercoaster the last 12 months. The hype of LaMelo Ball has returned some life back into the franchise. They’re now just ‘ The Hawks’, they have a new coach and they’ve put together a pretty decent basketball team.

Deng Adel was widely applauded as one of the signings of the offseason with aspirations to make it back to the NBA again. He should really be able to put some teams to the sword and along with Simon and Harvey, it’s a very formidable trio on paper on both sides of the floor.

Just like last season, the depth for their Bigs is slim which could hurt them week to week and they are relatively young across the board, but I really like the Hawks to make a bit of noise this season. They’ll win games off the back of Goorjian’s coaching alone and at above $20, they’re worth a small play.

BACK — The Hawks to win at anything above $20 for 0.5 units

Current Results

Total Units Staked: 37.00

Total Units Returned: 27.30

ROI: -26.22%

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