Tour De France Betting: Your Expert Guide

How To Find A Stage Winner In The Tour de France

Churchill, speaking in 1939, was talking about the difficulties of predicting Russia’s actions in World War II, but he could equally have been summarising the difficulties any punter faces when predicting the outcome of 176 riders racing for five hours across the French countryside.  For Churchill, the “key” to his Russian riddle was their “self-interest”, and as a starting point for unlocking the mysteries of a stage in the Tour de France, we could do worse than follow his lead.

Very few riders will be seeking a stage win on a given day

Punters are rarely asked to operate in markets where there are 176 different possible outcomes, but thankfully it’s possible to easily eliminate most options by understanding rider self-interest.  As we saw in our “How To…” article on picking a Yellow Jersey winner, cycling is a team sport, and different riders will have clearly defined roles based on their team’s overall objectives, which will become explicit as the Tour progresses.  For example, during the mountain stages in 2018, Team Sky’s Egan Bernal’s was lieutenant-in-chief for Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas, setting a relentless pace at the front of the peloton to discourage attacks from their main rivals.  On flatter days, he rode as a windbreak for the duo, aiming to shield them from unnecessary effort and protect them from calamity.  Bernal’s clearly defined role meant that, on most stages, it was easy to rule him out for an individual stage victory.

Very few riders can seek a stage win on a given day

Although one skeletal bloke in a skin-tight gimp-suit looks much like another, any seeming similarity likely belies significant differences in their pedalling preferences. Stages in the Tour de France are classified as either flat, hilly, or mountainous and, once you’ve rejected most of the peloton because you know they’ll be fulfilling a team role rather than seeking individual glory, it’s possible to eliminate still more for whom the stage profile isn’t suitable.

Knowing what type of stage riders face on a given day is a crucial first step.  This information is easily gleaned from the official Tour de France website, which provides descriptions of each stage and useful graphics showing its contours.

Follow the sprinters on the flat stages

Stages where the closing kilometres are flat and which contain no significant climbs are the realm of the sprinters, who will spend most of a stage hidden in the peloton, doing as little work as possible, only emerging to contest the intermediate sprint (and then only if they have an interest in the Points Competition), and the stage finish itself.  The best sprinters – of which there are usually half-a-dozen in any year’s Tour – have the support of their entire team, with their colleagues cossetting them through the day, before the final kilometres sees the team create a lead-out train: a line of riders who set a high pace at the front of the peloton, with the one at the front periodically dropping off as they become unable to punch a hole through the air whilst sustaining the required pace.  Whilst teammates are sacrificing themselves in this way, the team leader freewheels in the train’s slipstream.  The perfect lead-out train leaves their superstar protected until the final couple of hundred metres, at which point his job is to explode into a final sprint against the other favourites, all of whom have received similar treatment from their own teams.

It rarely works this neatly in practice, though.  The competition between lead-out trains, including those of outfits targeting not stage wins, but the relative safety of the front of the peloton for their overall classification contender (not to mention the twists, turns, and road furniture (bollards and the like which litter the run-in to any French town)), create something altogether more chaotic, meaning that the most successful sprinters are those that remain opportunistic, sometimes abandoning the lead-out train of their own team and following the wheels of other riders that may position them best for a final effort.

Identify the climbers for hilltop finishes

In every Tour de France, there are usually half-a-dozen or so stages that finish at the summit of climbs.  The most iconic of these end up in the high-altitude ski-towns of the Alps and Pyrenees, after riders have climbed for hours up steep gradients.  On these stages, it is only the grimpeurs – lithe, macaque-like creatures, usually weighing less than 60kg – who can win.  Complicating matters on these stages, though, is that it is often these same riders who will be seeking glory in the overall classification, meaning they become less interested in winning the stage, and more interested in riding defensively: marking the moves of their yellow jersey rivals rather than chasing other, avaricious climbers, who have no designs on the overall classification.  Again, we need to understand self-interest.

A subspecies of climber is the puncheur, light but powerful riders who specialise in short, uphill finishes, often to a citadel or church at the centre of a medieval town.  These can often be the most unpredictable stages, relying on tactical nous as much as physical prowess: the climbs are short, and it is crucial for a winning rider to time their effort perfectly.

A breakaway win is rare

Sprinters win the most stages, followed by climbers, followed by puncheurs.  Occasionally, though – perhaps once in any Tour – a rouleur (all-rounder), will win a stage as part of a breakaway, a group of riders who form on nearly every stage and are allowed to build up an advantage, before (usually) being caught in the closing kilometres.  A breakaway allows the sports lesser lights, clad in the logos of their team sponsors, long television exposure, all set against the backdrop on the bucolic French countryside.  These breakaways are encouraged by the main contenders for stage victory and overall classification, as they allow the peloton to settle into even-paced riding, preventing attempts by more-talented rivals to spring surprise attacks which may be more difficult to control.

Allowing these media-hungry peripherals the distance they crave comes with risks, though.  The strategy demands that the peloton keeps the breakaway catchable, aiming to apprehend them inside the last few kilometres of the stage, whereupon the sprint trains take over.  It’s remarkable how consistent the peloton is in judging this perfectly but, on occasion, “the catch” never comes, and rouleurs can claim an unlikely stage win.

Time trials are a specialist affair

Most years, there will be a time trial, where riders compete individually against the clock, with the fastest rider over the course at day’s end being declared the winner.  Sometimes these courses are short, flat, and fast; sometimes long, hilly, and arduous. Understanding the route’s profile, then, is vital.  Most time trials, though, are the preserve of a specialist breed of speedster, who spends the season targeting these niche affairs.

Where to find out which rider is which

The peculiarities of cycling can make it seem impenetrable to the once-a-year fan, and it’s certainly true that in order to fully understand the capabilities of every rider it is necessary to follow the sport closely over a number of years; however, there are also shortcuts to possessing much of the information that a life of fandom can glean.  Websites abound with stage previews and rider profiles, and just a small amount of research on a site like Procyclingstats can tell you everything about a rider’s past victories, neatly summarised with a rating for the different types of stages cycling has to offer.  If all that sounds too much like hard work, though, remember that daily previews are available on The Hub, guiding you through the contenders for every stage.

Taking it to the next level

The stage information provided by the main media outlets is excellent, giving a sense of where riders will go, and how much of it is up or down.  On some days, more detailed breakdowns are given for significant climbs, showing where the road gets steepest and where it levels off.  This information is never complete, though.

On the small-scale maps provided, what looks like a flat, straightforward run-in to a stage finish can in fact be a far more complex mix of ups, downs, twists and turns.  This increases the chaos and makes it more difficult for the big sprint teams to control the action, diminishing the chance that they will deliver their superstar to the final metres unscathed.

This is where using tools like Google Maps and Strava is key: they can reveal the sharp left-hand turn 150 metres from the finish that will cause the contenders to concertina and then split; or the slight uphill climb to the finish that doesn’t show on the elevation profile but which will blunt the efforts of a sprinter who makes their move too early.

And keeping an eye on the weather forecast for a region can be useful, too.  Generally, the more unsettled the conditions, the greater the chance of calamity and a surprise result: high-profile riders are usually less willing to take the risks that lead to stage victories when conditions are unpredictable.

On flat stages, pay close attention to the wind strength and direction.  Crosswinds – where strong gusts hit the peloton from the side – negate the peloton’s collective aerodynamics and will usually lead to splits in the field.  If a rider is unable to hold their position in the front group, that will usually mean the end of their chance for a stage victory.  Long stretches of straight roads, often on coastal sections, are especially prone, and again, Google Maps can be a saviour in spotting when and where crosswinds might become a factor.  Punting conservatively on these stages is advised.

The risks of overcomplicating your search for a stage winner

As with all punting, there is a risk that we tie ourselves in knots with the possible ramifications of the available information.  Some commentators will fill hours of airtime – and, in fairness to them, on a 220km stage, they have hours of airtime they have to fill – with predictions of which riders will want to celebrate their birthday by being in the breakaway, or which will want a stage victory in their aunt’s home town, or which team will be seeking glory because their sponsor’s factory is passed on route.  This kind of information is not without value, but given how speculative it is, it’s probably better to limit your scope to the fundamentals: which rider is tactically and physically best placed to profit from the peculiarities of the stage in question.

A growing source of information which does have its uses, though, is social media.  Often, after broadcasters have gone off air, riders will post updates, about injuries they have sustained, for example.  Given the complexities of covering 176 riders on a strung-out stage, television crews miss much, and it would be easy to lump on a rider for the next stage without realising that they had been involved in a crash on the preceding day.  However, it’s not necessary to follow all the riders’ social media activities.  Instead, before committing to your bets, have a look at the news feed on a website like Cycling Weekly, which will do the social media scouring for you.

Where does this leave us?

Trying to find a likely stage winner is as much about eliminating the impossible as it is about discovering the possible.  If a stage finishes at a ski resort at 2,000m, there are, probably, only 15 riders in the average Tour de France peloton who can prevail.  Half of these can then be rejected because you know they will have orders to protect their team leader.  What you are left with then is a more manageable list of contenders whose chances can be compared.  How have they ridden on similar stages in the past? How has their form been this season and on the Tour so far?

There is no guarantee that this thought process will lead you to a winner every day, but given the odds available on most riders on a stage, profiting on the Tour de France can often be a case of only needing to find a couple of winners across the three weeks.

How To Bet In Play At The Tour de France

In our last article on “How To…” prepare you to become a winning punter on this year’s Tour de France, we explored how to go about the seemingly impossible task of reducing a field of 176 riders down to a single selection, recognising that, once the type of stage is matched to those riders who have the attributes to suit the course, and for whom a stage victory is a primary objective, the job isn’t quite so overwhelming after all.

Why betting in-play might be advantageous

Not overwhelming, maybe, but not simple either.  Which is why many punters, when dealing with the uncertainties that surround each stage, prefer to call in and utilise Betfair’s in-play service, taking advantage of the increased knowledge about the intentions of teams and riders that can be gleaned from the early kilometres on any given day.  It might mean that odds become skinnier – after all, other punters will also be reacting to events as they play out – but with some savvy insider knowledge as to how stages typically progress, value bets can still be found.

Understanding the role of the peloton

All good academic essays begin with a definition of key terms, and as this article will get academic at points, it’s probably worth us making sure we all have a shared understanding as to what we mean by the term, peloton.

Confusingly, the term is used in two related, but different ways.  First, it can refer to the whole field of riders within a cycling race, as in, “The peloton will begin the stage in the next hour.”  Once a stage starts, though, the meaning morphs slightly, referring to the main group of riders, minus any small groups who are either in front, having formed a breakaway, or behind, consisting of the laggards who are unable or unwilling to match the pace required to stay with the main field.

It’s hard to find a cycling café anywhere in the world whose walls are not adorned with dramatic artwork depicting the multi-coloured mass of a peloton – usually set against the pastoral backdrop of a field of sunflowers – piercing through a French landscape like an aerodynamic swarm of hornets seeking a new nesting place.  And whilst the inevitable comparisons to co-operative animal groups have some merit – it can sometimes seem as if the peloton has a collective conscience – it is also easy to over-romanticise the peloton’s role.

Because it exists for practical reasons.  Physicists (and here comes the academic bit), no doubt desperate for a topic upon which to base their doctorates, have calculated that the collective aerodynamics of the peloton makes it around 40% more energy-efficient than a solo rider.  That efficiency comes at a cost to some, of course: the riders at the front must punch a hole in the air for the others to ride through, meaning that teams will sacrifice less high-profile riders – domestiques – to that role, enabling the stars to preserve their energy: whether they be sprinters wanting to keep their legs fresh for an all-out effort in the final few hundred metres, or contenders for overall race classifications aiming to keep a low-profile until the key climbs.

Omerta: the secret code of the peloton

The peloton is governed by a code of conduct that can be mystifying to the once-a-year fan.  Some have argued that this code – the so-called Omerta – has waned in recent years, but how much of this is a nostalgic reimagining of days of gentlemanly behaviour gone-by, and how much reality, is debatable.  Still today, riders do not attack in designating feeding stations, will often wait for a rider taking a comfort break, and will not attack if someone prominent in the overall classification – especially the yellow jersey – has mechanical misfortune.  When punting in-play on a stage, it’s worth keeping this in mind and being suitably cautious in your bets as a result.  Over-reacting to crashes, for example, can be costly: you might think a favourite is all-but-eliminated after careering off the road, only to have the peloton sit up and wait, as the teammates of the stricken rider – with the help of their team car – pace them back to the safety of the group.

The shape of a typical stage… a dangling breakaway

As we explored in our previous article on picking a stage winner, a breakaway – a (usually) small group of riders who ride ahead of the main peloton – forms on every stage, and is habitually caught with a few kilometres to go, allowing the favourites to fight it out for a stage win.  And of all the things that puzzle rookie cycling fans, it is the role of the breakaway that generates the most questions.  Why does the peloton allow a group of riders such a significant advantage?

The answer is that it makes their life easier, provided it is managed properly.  The first step in this management is to ensure that only low-risk riders are allowed to form a breakaway group.  Anyone who is a contender in the overall classification will not be allowed to escape, with any moves from such a rider quickly shut down.  The breakaway, then, is the preserve of the field’s lesser lights, those riders who pose no threat to the yellow jersey, and can therefore be allowed some leeway as they attempt to garner some media coverage for their sponsors.

With the breakaway detached up the road, there is no longer an incentive for individuals to accelerate away from the peloton, because the only thing that awaits them is a huge exertion of energy, with the prize being simply to join a smaller, weaker, group of riders.  For the main contenders in the peloton, this means they can relax into even-paced riding, at no risk of being subjected to sudden pace changes as yet another rival attacks.  Guaranteeing this even-paced effort is key in surviving the challenge of a three-week stage race.

The second step in managing the breakaway is to ensure that their lead is kept at a catchable limit, and that they are reeled in at the appropriate time.  Caught too quickly and energy-sapping attacks from rivals will be launched repeatedly in the final kilometres; left too late and one lucky rider from the breakaway gets their day of glory at the expense of the stage favourites.  The job of controlling the breakaway falls to the teams who believe they have a rider capable of winning the stage.  On flat days, this will mean the sprint teams.  However, bringing back a breakaway comes at a cost.  It involves sacrificing some of your men to ride at the front of the peloton, meaning they will be devoid of energy in the final kilometres and little use in a sprint train.  This is why there is always a degree of bluffing on the part of rival teams, with each trying to hold their nerve and contribute as little to the chase as possible.  It is in these moments of subterfuge that hope remains for the breakaway:  when the bluffing goes too far, and the peloton start chasing too late, or with insufficient verve, is when the breakaway enjoys a rare success.

Will they, or won’t they?

One of the fascinations of a Tour de France stage is speculating as to the fate of the breakaway.  This speculation is enabled by a time counter in the top left-hand corner of the screen, displaying the advantage the breakaway holds over the main peloton.  Most commentators and fans perform a simple calculation to feed this fascination: on a flat route, a chasing peloton can usually close a minute in every 10km.

This calculation does little to capture the complexities of deciding whether the breakaway will be caught, though.  Usually, the peloton can gain more time when going uphill (although this is not necessarily true on steep climbs, where the aerodynamic advantages of a large group of riders is blunted, and an expert grimpeur can ascend just as quickly as a chasing pack).  However, poor weather can be advantageous to a breakaway.  As can a poorly organised and motivated chasing peloton.  Add some twists and turns to a hard-to-navigate town centre finish, and the breakaway might stand a chance.

One approach to the puzzle is to use a formula developed in 2017 by Ghent University maths professor Hendrik van Maldeghem, which aims to calculate the distance at which the peloton must start its chase to catch a breakaway:

X = Ap {3(p-x) + 6pAc+9 (p-v)2

X = distance at which the peloton should start chasing in kilometres

A = time gap between the breakaway group and the peloton in hours

P = speed of the peloton in kilometres per hour

C = 10-a

a = number of riders in the breakaway group

If you fancy using the formula, there are various calculators on line which do the donkey work for you, but its worth remembering that, whilst interesting, the formula is based on the averages of historic data, and might not, therefore, be wholly applicable to the stage you are watching.  A talented, co-operative, and well-organised breakaway might fall short of van Maldeghem’s calculation, but they might have enough of an advantage to withstand the onslaught of a peloton who is hesitating about which team should lead the chase.

Be mindful of your sources of information

One of the delights of watching the Tour de France is that there is only one television feed, and this is controlled by French directors.  This means being treated to long close-ups of home riders who are extraneous to the real action, and to wide-angled helicopter shots of tourist attractions: the payback to local organisers for hosting a stage.

As a punter, though, it can be frustrating.  As interesting as it might be to read a detailed graphic about a medieval siege as an aerial camera pans around some crumbling ramparts, it can rather get in the way of finding out the fate of a rider who you last saw attacking the breakaway.

And picture delays can be similarly frustrating.  Aside from the usual delays that affect all sports broadcasts – which means locals witness the action before those further away – the Tour de France also has to contend with the difficulties of covering 176 riders, potentially strung out in small groups across narrow mountain roads.  And whilst tracking the action has improved significantly in recent years, there is still a limit to what the cameras can capture.  Added to this, directors – when they are not fulfilling their tourism duties – will also habitually replay significant action, without it always been clear that the picture is not live.

Punting in-play should be done cautiously

Having the option to wait to see how a stage is shaping up before betting can be invaluable, but as we’ve seen, it doesn’t necessarily make the task of picking a stage winner easy.  Vigilance is recommended, as is a conservative approach.  A small bet on a puncheur in a well-organised breakaway that is soon to face a short, uphill finish, and is being chased by an ill-motivated peloton, might be the wise call.  But a balls-deep punt on a lone rider, on a long, flat run-in, on a stage which provides the last opportunity of the Tour for the sprinters to emerge victorious, might not be so wise – especially when the pictures you are viewing are 30 seconds behind the real action.

When betting in-play, caution is the watchword.

Tour de France Odds

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