Your Australian F1 Grand Prix: Betting Preview

2019 kicks off with Formula 1 Melbourne at Albert Park this weekend, and the money is on Sebastian Vettel. The five-time Australian Grand Prix winner is favourite to win again. And if he does so, he’ll tie Michael Schumacher’s record for six Aussie titles and three in a row.

Vettel has been backed in from $3 to $2.5, after Ferrari impressed during pre-season training. With Lewis Hamilton drifting from $3 to $4.2. Interestingly, despite Vettel’s success at Albert Park, he hasn’t started on pole position in a Ferrari. Hamilton is more likely to win the battle on Saturday.


Lewis Hamilton

The five-time World Champion has started on pole and finished second in Australia three years in a row. The average losing margin has been 7.69 seconds, so it hasn’t even been close. The market drift reflects recent history so if you want to back Hamilton, take the shorter odds for pole.


Who Else Is In The Market?

A lot has been made of Charles Leclerc in the offseason. Many experts are predicting the young Monégasque driver to challenge his Ferrari teammate, and Hamilton, for the Drivers Championship. In fact, he’s been backed in from $12 to $6. Similarly, Leclerc is third in the market for Melbourne. He’s currently trading at $4.8.

Daniel Ricciardo’s old teammate, Max Verstappen, is next in Australia Grand Prix betting at $9. The young Dutchmen finished 2018 with five podium finishes but we’re not convinced the Red Bull can keep up with the two premier teams. The off-season change to Honda, with inconsistent testing, makes it hard to back Verstappen with confidence. In fact, we anticipate weaker results than last year.


What About Ricciardo?

As you know, the likeable Australian is in the yellow and black of Renault during 2019. He’s optimistic the French constructor can make up ground on the top three, particularly Red Bull. But the distance is significant.

Given Ricciardo has never finished on the Australian podium, in faster cars, it’s terribly hard to back him to do that this year. In fact, if the weight of patriotic money is on Ricciardo, it represents a brilliant Lay opportunity. We’ll be laying Ricciardo for a Podium Finish, and even consider the shorter odds of a Top 6 finish.


Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sebastian Vettel  Winner – 3 units (at $2.40 or higher)

 LAY – Lewis Hamilton Winner – 1 unit (at $4.8 or lower)

 LAY – Daniel Ricciardo Podium Finish – 3 units ($19 or less)

 LAY – Daniel Ricciardo Top 6 Finish – 2 units ($3 or less)


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