Your 2019 Oscars Betting Guide

The who’s who of Hollywood will congregate on Monday Night to celebrate the Oscars 2019 ceremony.

To help you find an edge, The Analysts have previewed all of the main awards in their comprehensive betting guide of the 91st Academy Awards.

Go where the value is on the Betfair Exchange.


Best Picture

Favourite: Roma

Best picture is an interesting field this year with Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma favourite to take out the award. After picking up best picture at the BAFTAs last week, Roma has shortened into 1.45 on the Exchange. A Roma win would be Netflix’s (the production company) first success in this category and foreshadow a significant presence at the awards in the coming years. Green Book is seemingly the only legitimate challenger to Roma, currently sitting at $4.50 on the Exchange.

The film has been under a cloud of controversy recently with some public doubt cast on the accuracy of the story and the surfacing of some old racially charged tweets by one of the films writers. This moved the market which may have over adjusted the film’s chances of taking out the award. The film still took out a number of awards at the Globes and the BAFTAs and seems like the kind of film that could get up in this race, especially as a point to underscore some of the racial issues currently surfacing in the US. Could be enough there for a small 1 unit bet on Green Book.

There are a few puzzling nominations in the race this year: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born. All films stick out badly in this prestigious category and each is a near impossibility to take home the award. Laying all would be a value play (albeit all currently $42, $42, and $80 on the Exchange) if you had the bankroll.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Green Book (1 unit)

 BACK – Back Roma (4 units)


Best Actor

Favourite: Rami Malek

Rami Malek (known best playing Mr. Robot) put together a captivating performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. so far he’s run the gamut, picking up the best lead actor award at the Globes, SAG awards, and the BAFTAs. It’s hard to see the acadamy not following suit here and handing him the award. His performance also closely resembles the role profile of previous winners of the last five years: Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking, Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln.

On a similar theme Christian Bale as Dick Cheney might be the risk here but I don’t think he (or the movie) did enough to ultimately hoist the award. Might be worth a small hedge on Bale if you want to limit your risk. Although Rami is short, it still looks like value at $1.20 on the Exchange. Potentially wait to see if you can find a stronger price.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Rami Malek (3 units)


Best Director

Favourite: Alfonso Cuaron

Alfonso Cauron has taken home the best director award for Roma at both the Globes and the BAFTAs in recent weeks. He’s the overwhelming favourite to take out the award after shortening to $1.10 on the Exchange. Smart money is probably to back him here, but if you’re looking for an alternative Spike Lee looks like your best smokey at $16-20 on the Exchange.

Nominated for his work on BlacKkKlansman, his first nomination for best director, in some universe he gets the nod as tribute to an outstanding directorial career; especially if Roma is cleaning up in other the categories. Lee has been directing for decades and has been a part of some classic films, potentially accruing enough recognition with his peers to be worth a 1 unit long-shot bet here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spike Lee (1 unit)


Best Actress

Favourite: Glenn Close

This race is drawing comparisons to Leo DiCaprio’s award for The Revenant in 2015. Although this might not be Glenn Close’s finest career performance she’s been nominated in this category 6 times and those dynamics (many times recognized, never a winner) seem to be a are a real force in these lead actor races. Close has come out on top in 3 main best actress races (SAG, Globes, Critics Choice Awards) but was surprisingly beaten by Olivia Colman at the BAFTAs.

Olivia Colman’s performance as Queen Anne in The Favourite is the only real challenger at the Oscars but there are reasons to be skeptical of her chances here. As mentioned Colman has now picked up the BAFTA and Golden Globe (best lead actress in a Comedy or Musical), however, I’m not sure she has enough left to pick up the big one.

Her lead performance was somewhat overshadowed by two other excellent performances by Emma Stone and Rachael Weisz (Weisz in particular), and she doesn’t have the decorated career that Close does yet. Close as The Wife is the bet in this race, but if you’re looking for a little more risk you could back Colman to surprise at near 10s on the Exchange.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Glenn Close (3 units)


Best Supporting Actor

Favourite: Mahershala Ali

This looks like the lock of the night. Ali is everywhere at the moment after bursting on to the scene on House of Cards, he then picked up the best supporting actor award at the 2017 Oscars for his role as Juan in Moonlight, and is currently leading critically acclaimed True Detective TV series with a blistering performance. This cultural visibility and his outstanding performance as Dr Don Shirley in Green Book should be more than enough for him to take home the award. Short odds but there’s a reason for that.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Mahershala Ali (3 units)


Best Supporting Actress

Favourite: Regina King

Regina King is the favourite in this race at $1.40 for her performance as Sharon Rivers in If Beale Street Could Talk. She’s an interesting favourite as she was surprisingly not nominated in this category at the SAG awards; this is a rarity. The last time a best supporting actress winner didn’t earn a SAG nomination was in 2001. She won the award at the Globes but was also omitted from the nominations at the BAFTAs.

Rachel Weisz looks like good value here at about 10’s on the Exchange for her impressive performance in The Favourite. The film has been widely lauded in reviews and with Olivia Colman likely missing out on the lead actress award, awarding Weisz would be an easy way to recognize the film. Given Emma Stone is also nominated it might detract from Weisz’s chances of winning marginally, however, Weisz was the standout in the film and she should be value to back at 10s.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Rachel Weisz (2 units)


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