Wyndham Championship Expert Preview

Sedgefield CC, Greensboro, North Carolina, Aug 16-19, 2018


Event & Course Details

The last event to qualify for the Fed Ex Cup has arrived, and what a stunning course to host the Wyndham Championship. Sedgefield Country Club is private golf course that opened in 1926 that measures 7130 yards from the longest tees.

Previously called the Greater Greensborough Open, the Wyndham Championship is the oldest regular stop on tour and includes past old champions such as Sam Snead, Byron Nelson and Ben Hogan. In years gone by, the field average of fairways hit is 71%, therefore it is very generous off the tee, however playing into greens can prove a little more challenging, but not overly difficult, as the field average has hovered around 63%. The Bermuda greens are expected to be running between 11-12 on the stimpmeter.


Weather Forecast

Thursday Weather – 34 Degrees, Partly Cloudy, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 53%, Wind 5-13km/h

Friday Weather – 33 Degrees, Partly Cloudy, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 60%, Wind 8-16km/h


Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year Winner Runner Up
2017 Henrik Stenson Ollie Schniederjans
2016 Si Woo Kim Luke Donald
2015 Davis Love Jason Gore
2014 Camillo Villegas Bill Haas & Fredrik Jacobson
2013 Patrick Reed Jordan Spieth
2012 Sergio Garcia Tim Clark
2011 Webb Simpson George McNeil
2010 Arjun Atwal David Toms
2009 Ryan Moore Jason Bohn and Kevin Stadler
2008 Carl Petterson Scott McCarron
2007 Brandt Snedeker B Mayfair, J Overton, T Petrovic


Current Form Review

Please note that a lot of the world’s top 50 ranked players will take a rest week before the Fed Ex Cup commences, however it will provide many players their last chance to qualify, which will make for an exciting week and we just might find some sneaky value!!

Rankings below are the top 15 in Betfair Market order as of Tuesday morning.

  Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5 Scoring Average To Par 72  
1. Webb Simpson T19 T24 T12 T47 MC -0.67 71.23
2. Henrik Stenson MC T39 T35 T6 T26 + 0.33* 72.33*
3. Rafael Cabrera Bello T10 T17 74TH T36 T17 -0.15 71.85
4. Shane Lowry T12 T12 MC MC T30 0 72
5. Brandt Snedeker T42 T8 MC T3 MC -0.88 71.13
6. Daniel Berger T12 T48 MC T67 T6 + 0.22* 72.22*
7. Joaquin Niemann T71 T37 T23 T5 T17 – 1.95** 70.05**
8. Billy Horschel T35 MC T2 T17 MC – 2.13** 69.87**
9. Ryan Moore T59 T12 T55 T13 MC – 1.11** 70.88**
10. Russell Henley T50 MC 10TH T6 T25 -0.38 71.61
11. Sergio Garcia MC T39 MC MC MC + 1.42* 73.42*
12. Si Woo Kim MC T10 T29 T67 MC -0.06 71.93
13. Matthew Fitzpatrick MC T48 MC T12 T46 + 0.75* 72.75*
14. Harold Varner T17 6TH T5 T41 MC – 2.55** 69.44**
T15. Steve Stricker T50 T43 T20 T18 T32 -0.85 71.15
T15. Julian Suri T19 T28 T29 T58 T8 -1.35 70.65

Averaging under 71** – Players in good current form and averaging under 71 are Harold Varner, Billy Horschel, Joaquin Niemann and Ryan Moore.

Averaging over 72* – Players in poor current form averaging over par include Sergio Garcia, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Daniel Berger and Henrik Stenson.


High Profile Players Performance at the Event the past 5 years

Player 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Scoring Average To Par 72  
1. Webb Simpson 3RD T72 T6 T5 T11 -2.35 69.65
2. Henrik Stenson 1ST DNP DNP DNP DNP – 5.50** 66.50**
3. Rafael Cabrera Bello DNP T5 DNP MC DNP -2 70
4. Shane Lowry T7 T42 DNP DNP DNP -2.87 69.13
5. Brandt Snedeker DNP T3 T43 T5 MC -2.5 69.5
6. Daniel Berger DNP DNP MC DNP DNP + 2.00* 74.00*
7. Joaquin Niemann DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
8. Billy Horschel T60 T5 MC T47 DNP -1.85 70.15
9. Ryan Moore T24 T53 T10 DNP DNP -2.41 69.58
10. Russell Henley DNP T46 DNP DNP DNP -1.75 70.25
11. Sergio Garcia DNP DNP DNP DNP T29 -1 71
12. Si Woo Kim DNP 1ST DNP DNP MC -2.16 69.83
13. Matthew Fitzpatrick DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
14. Harold Varner T10 MC DNP DNP DNP -1.83 70.17
T15. Steve Stricker DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
T15 Julian Suri DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP

You will notice a lot of these players have not regularly played this event over the years, therefore it’s difficult to get accurate form guide on who performs well at this event and who doesn’t.

Good History at Event **    Henrik Stenson has played here on one occasion, and won & Webb Simpson has been consistent without winning.

Poor History at Event *      Daniel Berger has played here once and missed the cut.


Adjusted Stroke Averages for the “High Profile” Players

Player My Handicap Adjusted Stroke Av To Par 72
1.       Joaquin Niemann -1.81 70.18
2.       Billy Horschel -1.78 70.22
3.       Harold Varner -1.56 70.44
4.       Steve Stricker -1.53 70.47
5.       Ryan Moore -1.49 70.51
6.       Webb Simpson -1.41 70.59
7.       Henrik Stenson -1.37 70.63
8.       Brandt Snedeker -1.32 70.68
9.       Julian Suri -1.26 70.74
10.    Russell Henley -1.02 70.98
11.    Shane Lowry -1.01 70.99
12.    Rafael Cabrera Bello -0.98 71.02
13.    Hideki Matsuyama -0.97 71.03
14.    Si Woo Kim -0.74 71.26
15.    Daniel Berger -0.56 71.44
16.    Matthew Fitzpatrick -0.31 71.69
17.    Sergio Garcia -0.02 71.98

You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Note – I have added Tiger Woods into the form review, as he is one of the world’s fastest rising players!


Market Notes

In my opinion, there is a lot of discrepancy in the market this week. A young player called Joaquin Niemann heads the list as tournament favorite for mine. With a great Amateur career, this 18 year old is also backing it up in the Pro Ranks and is definitely a player to follow moving forward. Sergio Garcia and Matthew Fitzpatrick continue their poor run of form and even though it’s an easier field to beat here, I still cannot have either of them.

Joaquin Niemann should be $14 not $30

Billy Horschel should be $20 not $40

Harold Varner & Steve Stricker should be $25 each, not $50 and $75 respectively

Hideki Matsuyama – would rank 13th on my list and should be $44 not $18


In Play Trading Opportunities

Historically being a low scoring event, I will be looking closely at the scoring after the morning play Day 1 and accessing options on player to “lay” and then “re-back” before they commence their second round.

Sedgefield is an easy course with two very reachable Par 5’s that play as some of the easiest on tour. In fact of the 900 holes played on tour, one of the par 5’s ranks 5th easiest and the other ranks 63rd Great for placing a “back” bet and then a “lay” bet after the hole has been completed.


Pre Tournament Bets

Below are some examples of some pre-tournament bets to consider this week

 LAY – Matsuyama for top 10 @ $3.50 for 1 unit

 LAY – Sergio Garcia for top 10 @ $5 for 1 unit

 BACK – Joaquin Niemann for top 20 @ $2.80 for 2 units

  BACK –  Billy Horschel for top 20 @ $2.80 for 2 units

 

Like last week, Betfair placed the same tournament match bets markets as Sportsbet, if they do so again I like the following match

 BACK – Billy Horschel to beat Russell Henley @ $1.90 for 2 units


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