{"id":969,"date":"2022-09-28T06:40:18","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T06:40:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bfhubprod.wpengine.com\/hub\/?p=969"},"modified":"2022-10-25T04:03:14","modified_gmt":"2022-10-25T04:03:14","slug":"the-new-age-trader","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/education\/punter-insights\/the-new-age-trader\/","title":{"rendered":"MEET SAM"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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It\u2019s long odds against meeting a more intriguing character, in the world of gambling and horse racing or perhaps in any sphere, than 24-year-old Melbourne-based Betfair trader Sam.<\/p>\n

That I\u2019m sure of after an extended conversation with the self-confessed high school dropout. But despite the length of our chat, I\u2019ll admit I\u2019m still not entirely sure precisely how he uses Betfair.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n

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ABOUT SAM<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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Later we\u2019ll explore his approach in his own words. In the interim we must note that he\u2019s focused on the mental preparation for a day\u2019s trading. He\u2019s passionate and focused on many contemporary well-being tools and yet seems grounded (and eminently likeable) as he stops short of fanaticism and is not inclined to preach or indoctrinate. \u201cIt\u2019s just what works for me,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

His betting approach is 100% manual which seems almost contradictory to his \u2018new age\u2019 approach and somewhat mind-boggling given his modus operandi. It is based on an entirely intuitive read of the market. \u201cIt\u2019s unbiased. I\u2019m happy to let everyone else tell me what\u2019s happening and interpret the betting data,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve got 10,000 hours of experience reading the betting patterns; everything in life is pattern related and the market tells me what smarter people think whether that\u2019s based on form or \u2018intel\u2019,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

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ENAHANCING FOCUS AND SWITCHING OFF<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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Just as importantly for Sam is the \u2018focused mind\u2019. He\u2019s a walking, talking advocate for the age-old adage \u2018men\u2019s sana in corpore sano\u2019 which dates to the Romans of the first century, but Sam\u2019s approach is very much 21st century. We\u2019re talking ketogenic diets, ketosis, yoga and even fasting.<\/p>\n

\u201cYoga is huge for me along with diet, meditation, supplements and I know that I perform better when I\u2019m fasting or have fasted. I\u2019ve looked at what variables I can control and therefore change in my betting and one of them, of course, is that I can change me.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe correct physical and mental state and controlling the mental headspace is the key to my success and to achieve that I take a holistic approach, seven days a week. Part of the process includes designated and planned down time. I set aside blocks of days or a week where I switch off mentally and completely let go to reset, it\u2019s as critical\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s a devotee of Dave Asprey and Bulletproof Coffee (a coffee loosely blended with butter and Coconut oil). \u201cI\u2019m not hungry when fasting, it\u2019s all about improving mental clarity\u2026.,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

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SAM’S APPROACH<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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The holistic approach however does not include any preparation linked to the actual races or form.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn that score, I do absolutely zero preparation. Couldn\u2019t even tell you where the races are tomorrow,\u201d he said when we met on a Friday.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cAnd I\u2019d say I\u2019m terrible at maths. I see $3.00 and what happens at that price is part of a pattern rather than a percentage of 33%. All my intuition is based on pattern recognition. I don\u2019t bet on sport as the markets are less volatile than on horse racing which doesn\u2019t suit my approach\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI used to prefer betting on the lower grade races but I\u2019m confident now I can get the same read on the better class races as well. I will play on every thoroughbred race shown on Sky 1 on main race days, \u201che said.<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery race,\u201d I asked. \u201cWell every race except New Zealand so it pretty chaotic,\u201d was the reply.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s almost incomprehensible that anyone could sustain that level of concentration. Note to self, must start Yoga and Bulletproof coffee. \u201cOh, I\u2019ll be frenetic at times, moving the yoga mat around and I have a small trampoline in the office. I\u2019m often on the move rather than sitting the whole time,\u201d Sam explains.<\/p>\n

So, what is this pattern recognition he seeks?<\/p>\n

\u201cWell, I suppose anything which is intuitive is hard to explain. Just because something firms in the market doesn\u2019t mean that it wins but I am looking for the \u2018smart\u2019 money on Betfair; there\u2019s a few specific things I look for, most notably aggression on a price at any given time.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe over-riding notion is that I want to be on the ones who are trying to win the race and the market is often the best indicator of this,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

And, somewhat quaintly, he explains he has a fundamental drive not to lose money. \u201cI\u2019ve made mistakes and I\u2019ve learned from them. I know now that if I try and make the market I get burned. I learned that one day when I lost $20,000 so I decided it\u2019s a good idea not to lose money.\u201d<\/p>\n

He doesn\u2019t necessarily watch the races as such even though he has multiple TVs set up. He also listens to the radio to avoid any possible broadcast delay. \u201cI\u2019m more inclined to watch the betting in play than the race itself and I\u2019m happy to bet in play especially if I think there\u2019s an emotive over-reaction. I used to love Hilton Donaldson who would virtually shout in some sort of condemnation when a favourite was last in the run,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

High staking is also being instinctive and intuitive. \u201cSometimes it\u2019s best to treat it as a game and treat the outcomes as your score. If I was thinking about every dollar I would bet less, and my approach could be compromised.<\/p>\n

\u201cI have zero rules for staking. I bet more when I\u2019m confident, as simple as that. And I\u2019m not aiming to arbitrage, that was more a focus early on but now I think it\u2019s stupid to minimise potential profit. I can only imagine you\u2019d do it if you\u2019re scared of losing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

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WHERE IT ALL BEGAN<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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\u201cI take a very dispassionate approach which is entirely market driven. Betting for fun?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m normally having fun when betting, but for me, fun = winning, sure there\u2019s losing days and races but if I lose on a race it\u2019s something I can let go quickly.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So, how did it all begin and what is the background of this thoroughly modern player?<\/p>\n

\u201cI used to live next to Caulfield Racecourse and started going when I was 15 or 16 and took my laptop to the races probably before that was the norm. I was looking for patterns even then and this time roughly coincided with the advent of Betfair, so I guess I\u2019ve not known betting without it (Betfair).<\/p>\n

\u201cI played with every possible model at the track; tried the form but concluded doing the form was flawed in terms of consistently making a profit.\u00a0 For a very brief time, I tried looking at the horses but probably didn\u2019t know what I was looking at or for\u2026betting on the roughest dog or the one and the eight.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a myriad of reasons why I win, a clear mind, an ability to see and read the patterns, interpret the market, no sense of pressure, no wife, no kids.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

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FINDING BALANCE<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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Sam left school at the end of year 10. \u201cI haven\u2019t ever felt the need to have a piece of paper to define me and have always believed I would be successful. I have the ability to learn from my mistakes,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He briefly studied international business and, at the age of 16, was offered a job by entrepreneur Ruslan Kogan. \u201cI think he saw a bit of himself in me but a couple of weeks later the offer was withdrawn, perhaps he thought I was too young.<\/p>\n

\u201cPerhaps he did me a favour. My betting approach has been very good to me. Especially now as I have learned less is more with the focus only on main race days. Seven days a week was too much, and I used to hate gambling, but I love it now, creating balance is key\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Sam did give betting away for a while to focus on self-development and travel but has returned to what he does best. \u201cIt overwhelmed me for a while when I was betting seven days a week.\u201d<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

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ADDRESSING DOUBTERS<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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Pessimists who know Sam\u2019s story have assumed that he must be a lucky person, but his outlay would convince those people otherwise. He\u2019s spent the following on his setup:<\/p>\n