{"id":961,"date":"2022-09-28T06:26:22","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T06:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bfhubprod.wpengine.com\/hub\/?p=961"},"modified":"2024-08-21T16:55:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T06:55:02","slug":"meet-big-bill","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/education\/punter-insights\/meet-big-bill\/","title":{"rendered":"MEET BIG BILL"},"content":{"rendered":"
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WHO IS THE PROGRAMMER?<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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Big Bill says he\u2019d been warned to expect a call from some journo who\u2019d been told he would make for an interesting yarn. Bill had come up with an automated Betfair betting program that for around a decade or so that had been placing rapid-fire bets on any animal that moved \u2013 well, dogs and horses \u2013 and had been consistently, and very, successful.<\/p>\n

Bill\u2019s methodology was somewhat vague when his name popped up as a story subject and not much clearer after a still-fascinating chat over a bottle of Shiraz \u2013 not Pinot, because Bill reckons Pinot tastes like soap \u2013 three schooners and a steak at a Bayside pub.<\/p>\n

Bill was a bit concerned about the chat because he didn\u2019t regard himself as story-worthy, just a former software guy who wasn\u2019t even computer or stats-savvy enough to be regarded as a half-interesting \u201cgeek punter.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

He\u2019d just thrown a heap of random stuff into a program that (to Bill\u2019s endless surprise) kept pinging a profit.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s really not that sophisticated. It came after a lot of trial and error. It relies a lot on volume. But I can\u2019t really say much more than that. It\u2019s pretty random,\u2019\u2019 he said, revealing next to zero; not to be cute but because his program really does seem \u201crandom.\u2019\u2019 he attempted to explain more and slowly gave was as the shiraz emptied, and more on that later.<\/p>\n

Bill instantly reminded me of someone, then someone else.We arrange to meet at 2.30pm; Bill\u2019s 10 minutes early, I\u2019m 10 minutes late. He\u2019s not wearing a carnation for easy identification but says he\u2019s wearing a blue polo shirt and sitting just behind an indoor palm tree. I wander past a gloriously dishevelled fellow with wild uncombed hair in a quite clearly green polo shirt behind the only palm in the alfresco dining area and double back once I realise there\u2019s no-one else about.<\/p>\n

\u201cBill?\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

\u201cYes?\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

\u201cBlue shirt?\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

He looks down. \u201cIt\u2019s sort of blue isn\u2019t it?\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

I think immediately of leviathan punter Andrew Harcourt, who grew up around Caulfield, then became the greatest maths and systems guru on the planet; Hong Kong-based where he\u2019s mastered the triple trio and resides in the hotel he owns in Kowloon, travels the world like a hobo with just a swag over his shoulder and drives a battered up old Datsun 380B whenever he\u2019s in Melbourne.<\/p>\n

A bit later, I\u2019m reminded of trainer Jim Conan who, like Big Bill, is both charming and vague and spends much of his time wandering streets, possibly doing a Dustin Hoffman and avoiding cracks.<\/p>\n

When Conlan received an 18-month disqualification some years ago, he decided to get fit and started walking, like a maniac. It would be nothing for the increasingly lean Conlan to stroll from his home in Malvern all the way along the Gardiner\u2019s Creek trail to the city and back again. Bill arrived early because the google app on his phone told him it would take an hour and a half to get there from his home in Black Rock. On foot.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s usually pretty accurate. I must have walked quickly,\u2019\u2019 he said, revealing he\u2019d been \u201ca walker\u2019\u2019 for as long as he could remember. He and his girlfriend once walked from one side of Portugal to the other. He\u2019s now eyeing off somewhere bigger, maybe Germany, or the religious Camino Trail through Spain.<\/p>\n

\u201cI just like it. I\u2019ve been doing it for years. It gives me a chance to think about things\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Before Bill reveals hints about his great automated Betfair system, he reveals the threads of an early life that maybe, just maybe, explain some of that system\u2019s mystery ingredients. He grew up on a farm near Gippsland and studied physics, chemistry and genetics at a Melbourne University before working for a communications company, then in an ad agency, in software.<\/p>\n

Genetics and evolution fascinated him; how \u201ccertain animals evolved into certain environments, like why certain birds had especially long beaks\u2019\u2019, how breeds of cattle and sheep had been purpose-bred to produce better wool or a better steak, how one thoroughbred was bred to another to produce a certain \u201ctype\u2019\u2019.<\/p>\n

It intrigued him that stayers hadn\u2019t seemed to evolve; that winning times in The Derby at Epsom Downs hadn\u2019t quickened in 50 years but sprinters were getting quicker and quicker. He was interested in trends and sequences, in nature and gambling.<\/p>\n

He\u2019d been born into a family of punters and somewhere along the way Bill\u2019s fascination for genetics parlayed into the punt, then a concoction of a betting system that included absolutely erratic factors, such pet riders (like Brad Rawiller and Jamie Kah) and the probability of horses winning with names that included the letter \u201ct\u2019\u2019.<\/p>\n

The various ingredients came to him one night at the Sunshine Coast. He was there on business and was up late punting on English jumps races, which he says produced factors that interested him, like alarming betting drifts than always proved accurate and warm favourites that almost never lost.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n

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WHAT DOES BILL DO?<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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Half-way home from our lunch, wandering somewhere up near Beach Road, Bill apologises for being vague and unforthcoming and attempts to explain.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat I basically do is \u2026 first,\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cBetfair markets at jump are almost perfect. You can get the biggest bets on in the final 10 minutes so it\u2019s a \u2018cat and mouse\u2019 game I suppose of finding when the market is right or wrong.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cMarkets are close to 100 per cent but individual prices fluctuate, so \u2026<\/p>\n

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  1. I have an idea\/notice a trend. E.g., decide on wet tracks that we track form is initially over factored in.<\/li>\n
  2. X minutes before race, lay wet trackers. Or, I might put in a Betfair starting price bet back with a limit of $5 for something currently $4.50. I might get better than $5 but I\u2019ll get on, provided it drifts, which is what I want\/expect to happen.<\/li>\n
  3. Watch profits! Or, tweak how long before race to do this.<\/li>\n
  4. Or, if losing more than commission. Reverse bets (i.e., back wet trackers early instead. Admit I had the trend wrong, but profit now.)\u2019\u2019<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Bill concludes with \u201cHope this helps explain. It\u2019s not sophisticated. Basically, come up with ideas, maybe ridiculous, and try them \u2026 more bets, lower commission, less risk (of a sort). Half the time I\u2019m betting against myself with different ideas. A bit absurd.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

    Big Bill\u2019s \u201cabsurd\u2019\u2019 system seems perfect for him. He doesn\u2019t particularly look like a genius, with that dishevelled appearance and apologetic manner, but then again maybe he does. Andrew Harcourt looks similar, with his swag and battered up Datsun, and so did scruffy old Albert Einstein.<\/p>\n

    As our steaks arrive, Bill shows me his phone. The screen features a constant stream of settled bets, hundreds per hour. In one month he once matched 250,000 of them. He says he glances occasionally at the plus and minus column but for the most part ignores it and allows the program to purr along.<\/p>\n

    \u201cThe hardest thing is ignoring massive losing streaks. Last January I lost a quarter of the previous year\u2019s winnings in the space of a week.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    It was a similar story last January. Maybe it\u2019s just a January thing,\u2019\u2019 he jokes.<\/p>\n

    \u201cBut I worked out the results were so bad, they were inexplicable, and I ignored them.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

    He says he can sometimes separate himself from his betting system and back one on gut or feel, but always with a squiz at the balance sheet on the phone at the end of the day.<\/p>\n

    \u201cI tend to get a bit curious if I\u2019ve had a particularly big win off a particular horse; check out the replay, usually see it won by the bob of a head; or lose by a bob. I\u2019ve had a stack of them go against me lately.<\/p>\n

    \u201cSometimes you\u2019ll check out one that lost and discover, like one day a year ago, that a 100-1 shot you backed lost because a riderless horse crossed its path and knocked it over as it galloped back to its stables. Or another time, when a 60-1 shot was way in front and the jockey fell off; a $6,000 turnaround.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

    As Bill tightens his shoe laces and prepares to wander back home, perhaps a bit wobbly after the shiraz and schooners, he admits being a tad vague but insists he\u2019s not a \u201crain man\u2019\u2019, just a bloke who had a \u201cfreaky idea\u2019\u2019 and automated it.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n

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    \n\n \n \n \"\"\n \n <\/a>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The Programmer, also known as Big Bill, has had an automated betting strategy on the Exchange for years. Hear his story in our latest customer insight on the Betfair Hub<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":46750,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"tipster_notification_checkbox":false,"send_notification":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"brand":[],"class_list":["post-961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-punter-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMeet Big Bill | Betfair Punter Insights | Betfair Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Programmer, also known as Big Bill, has had an automated betting strategy on the Exchange for years. 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