{"id":9528,"date":"2023-07-18T11:39:14","date_gmt":"2023-07-18T01:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/?p=9528"},"modified":"2026-07-15T14:35:38","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T04:35:38","slug":"open-championship-tips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/sports\/golf\/open-championship-tips\/","title":{"rendered":"EXPERT GOLF TIPS: THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The 154th Open Preview: Birkdale, Baked<\/h2>\n
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Model-based betting preview for the 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Southport, July 16\u201319.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nine years after Jordan Spieth wandered onto a driving range on the 13th hole and somehow emerged three shots clear, the Claret Jug returns to Southport for the 11th time \u2014 a tally bettered only by St Andrews. It arrives at a course that has been quietly rebuilt beneath the R&A’s feet and then set upon by a British heatwave, leaving it the colour of an overcooked shortbread. Scottie Scheffler ($10 Betfair \/ $11.53 model) defends as favourite despite missing his first cut in four years last week; Rory McIlroy ($11 Betfair \/ $18 model) arrives having spent Sunday in Scotland loudly questioning his own competence; and Tommy Fleetwood ($18 Betfair \/ $18.07 model) plays an Open on the links he grew up sneaking onto, with a mural of his face on a wall down the road. England hasn’t produced a Champion Golfer since Faldo in 1992, and no Englishman has ever won an Open at Birkdale at all. The market has noticed.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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The Course: How Royal Birkdale Will Play<\/h2>\n
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Birkdale plays as a par 70 at 7,223 yards, which is 67 yards longer than the layout Spieth solved in 2017 and, by modern major standards, barely worth mentioning. Both nines play to 35 and both return to the art deco clubhouse. The front nine has actually been trimmed by 22 yards; the back has gained 89, loading the harder questions into the closing stretch.<\/p>\n

Off the tee, Birkdale’s fairways sit flat in valleys between dunes rising 20 to 40 feet, which makes it a links without the usual weirdness \u2014 no blind shots, no hidden trouble, nothing bouncing sideways into the gorse for reasons nobody can explain. What it gives you instead is a set of corridors framed by marram grass, gorse and fescue, with the landing zones tightening exactly where the good players want to land it. The fairway targets are meaningfully narrower than what this field faced at Aronimink in May or Shinnecock in June. The rough is red fescue, marram and native grasses, and in a normal year it’s the primary defence. This is not a normal year.<\/p>\n

The greens are small by major standards and relatively tame in contour, kept that way to survive a wind that typically blows 15 to 30 kph off the Irish Sea. Most are bunkered at four and eight o’clock rather than across the front, which leaves a ground route in if you can read the approach. The bunkers are the real teeth: revetted pits, many raised above the water table during the recent works, and most of them genuinely can’t be advanced from. Tom Mackenzie has touched all 18 holes since 2024 \u2014 new tee complexes, rebuilt bunkers, reshaped green surrounds. The headline changes are a completely redesigned par-4 fifth, now 321 yards with a visible green, new fairway bunkering and a runoff behind it that the head pro sums up as “do not go long”; a rebuilt par-3 seventh with a raised green, steep runoffs and the deepest bunkers on the property; the old par-3 14th retired; and a brand new par-3 15th at over 240 yards, playing into the prevailing wind and effectively impossible to hold with an aerial shot. The four par 3s now run 219, 151, 186 and 241 yards.<\/p>\n

Historically the venue has been wildly inconsistent. In 2008 it played to a 74.87 scoring average \u2014 still the highest of any course professional golf has visited this century, and Padraig Harrington’s three-over aggregate remains the only over-par winning score of the 21st century. In 2017, Branden Grace shot the first sub-63 in major history on a Saturday that averaged 69.03. Strip out the wind and rain and Birkdale is entirely happy to be had.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Course History and Course Fit<\/h2>\n
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There isn’t much course history, and what exists comes in two clumps separated by nine years and a substantially different golf course. Only a handful of players \u2014 Stenson, Rose, Noren, Scott, Harrington, Duval \u2014 have played both editions. Stenson has the best combined record in the field, gaining close to two and a half strokes per round in adjusted SG and running well over a stroke above expectation. Spieth’s 2017 week remains the standout single performance at better than four and a half strokes per round, and Haotong Li’s third-place finish that year was nearly three strokes above his expectation, which looks predictive right up until you check what he’s done since. McIlroy’s T4 in 2017 was quietly excellent. Rose has the volume of history but not the substance \u2014 T70 and T54, a full stroke per round below expectation, and a small negative adjustment for his trouble. Fleetwood’s T27 in 2017 landed almost exactly on his expected number, which is neither endorsement nor indictment. All the adjustments are tiny, mostly a few hundredths of a stroke either way, and shouldn’t move anyone’s needle.<\/p>\n

The course fit overlay is more interesting, and unusual. Driving distance underindexes sharply against the Tour average. Accuracy, approach, around-the-green and putting all sit at or fractionally below average importance. In plain terms this is a course that mostly declines to reward anything in particular, which is what happens at Opens. The skill distribution compresses. The two prior Birkdale Opens produced skill separation figures of 0.6 and 0.72 against an expected value of 1.0, and Open venues as a class have averaged 0.83 since 2004. Short hitters overperformed at both editions here \u2014 by better than half a stroke per round in 2017.<\/p>\n

That distance de-emphasis drives the whole adjustment table, and the result is a leaderboard of players nobody is backing. The biggest beneficiaries are shorter-hitting qualifiers and journeymen \u2014 Kobori, Kaneko, Higa and the amateur Howard all pick up somewhere between a fifth and a third of a stroke per round. Among names that matter, Rai, Noren and Henley collect around a seventh of a stroke. At the other end, the bombers are being taxed. McIlroy takes the largest hit in the field at roughly a third of a stroke per round, with DeChambeau, Gotterup and Nicolai Hojgaard close behind. Min Woo Lee, Rahm, Schauffele, \u00c5berg and Niemann all shed around a fifth. Almost all of it is driving distance; the short game and approach components round to nothing for essentially everyone.<\/p>\n

Here’s the wrinkle, and it’s a real one. That fit plot is built on 2008 and 2017 \u2014 two Opens with wind, rain and proper rough. The Birkdale this field is playing has been baked out entirely. When links courses get genuinely firm, the historical pattern is that the rough penalty vanishes and long, inaccurate players go on a rampage: Hoylake in 2006 was a crap shoot – skill explained the second-lowest amount of variance of any tour event or major since 2004, and both there and at St Andrews in 2022 the bombers thrived. That doesn’t automatically transfer here \u2014 the dunes stay nasty regardless of moisture, and the penalty for a genuinely wild miss at Birkdale is severe enough that it plausibly cancels out the randomness that usually helps wayward drivers. But it’s worth holding those distance penalties loosely. The model is describing a Birkdale that may not turn up this week.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Player News and Storylines<\/h2>\n
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Scottie Scheffler ($10 Betfair \/ $11.53 model)<\/strong> defends, seeking to become the first back-to-back Open winner since Harrington, and arrives having just snapped a 78 tournament cut making streak at the Scottish Open \u2014 his first miss since July 2022. He has framed this as a chance to arrive early at a course he’d never seen, which is the sort of silver lining available only to the world number one. The season has been odd – one win, at the American Express in January, then thirteen starts of relentless top-tens and no trophy. The culprit has been approach play, well down on his 2024\u201325 peaks, though it’s been sharpening lately. He has never finished outside the top 25 in five Opens. The model has him slightly longer than the market so no value to be had this week.<\/p>\n

Rory McIlroy ($11 Betfair \/ $18 model)<\/strong> is the market’s second favourite and the model’s clearest fade at the top. He was audibly heard calling himself “so bad at golf” during Sunday’s final round in Scotland, then shot 64 and finished top five. That is the McIlroy experience compressed into an afternoon. He’s been fighting a left miss all year, sits outside the top 110 on tour in both proximity and scrambling from rough, and cops the worst fit adjustment in the field. The counter-case: T4 here in 2017, six top-sevens in nine major starts since his 2014 Open, a Masters already banked this year, and a genuine love of links golf. But $11 against a model price of $18 is a very wide gap for a player this heavily traded, and the volume is stacked on his side of the book.<\/p>\n

Tommy Fleetwood ($18 Betfair \/ $18.07 model)<\/strong> is Southport-born, arrives with no worse than 14th in his last five worldwide starts, and ranks fifth on tour tee-to-green and third around the green. He says he sees “only positives” in the attention. The unavoidable subtext is that Fleetwood has entered a major as a genuine contender roughly a dozen times without winning one, with runner-up finishes at the 2018 U.S. Open and the 2019 Open to show for it. He was T27 here in 2017. The Exchange and the model agree almost to the cent, which is a polite way of saying nobody can find an edge.<\/p>\n

Matt Fitzpatrick ($18 Betfair \/ $20 model)<\/strong> has been the most consistent player in the world outside Scheffler \u2014 three wins plus four more top-fives \u2014 and contended again at the Renaissance last week. He’s a precise player whose profile suits a compressed-skill Open venue, and he draws a neutral fit adjustment rather than the penalty handed to the bombers. His price chart is the story of the season: trading around $120 last September, $58 by January, ground steadily down to $18 by results. He plays with McIlroy and Schauffele.<\/p>\n

Jon Rahm ($28 Betfair \/ $30 model)<\/strong> has been flat as a pancake around this number for months, which is roughly what he’s been doing to his major record since joining LIV. Elite in his own ecosystem, largely invisible on the big stages, and shedding a fifth of a stroke per round to a course that doesn’t want his length. The market has essentially declined to form an opinion.<\/p>\n

Xander Schauffele ($30 Betfair \/ $36 model)<\/strong> is one of the few players whose major performance consistently beats his baseline, which is precisely the sort of thing that gets a punter into trouble at $30. He takes a distance penalty and his matched volume is thin relative to those around him \u2014 the money isn’t chasing.<\/p>\n

Viktor Hovland ($38 Betfair \/ $36 model)<\/strong> beat Scheffler in a Monday playoff at the Travelers, which is a reasonable way to arrive, and owns an Open record that lurches between T4 and missed cut. He’ll also spend the week being reminded by a large English gallery that England knocked Norway out of the World Cup on Saturday.<\/p>\n

Collin Morikawa ($34 Betfair \/ $57 model)<\/strong> is the biggest disagreement among the elite tier \u2014 the model wants better than $20 more than the market. He’s a former Champion Golfer with the best wind-flighting iron game of his generation, which is presumably what the money is paying for. Whether the putter cooperates is another question.<\/p>\n

Justin Rose ($38 Betfair \/ $55 model)<\/strong> is the sentimental pick and the model’s least favourite type: 45 years old, back at the venue where he holed out on the 72nd hole as a 17-year-old amateur in 1998 to finish T4, and with a record here since of T70 and T54. He’s been superb in majors this year \u2014 T3 at Augusta, top-11s at the other two \u2014 but the model wants nearly $17 more than the market offers.<\/p>\n

Wyndham Clark ($40 Betfair \/ $58 model)<\/strong> won the U.S. Open wire-to-wire and hasn’t finished outside the top 11 in six starts. He’s also wide off the tee, which at a firm Birkdale is either fatal or a windfall depending on which theory of baked links golf you subscribe to.<\/p>\n

Tyrrell Hatton ($38 Betfair \/ $58 model)<\/strong> is putting as well as anyone in the world and has the disposition of a man being slowly reversed over. Birkdale, which punishes without offering explanations, should produce content.<\/p>\n

Chris Gotterup ($36 Betfair \/ $56 model)<\/strong> has three wins this season including the John Deere and contended at the Scottish, but takes one of the larger distance penalties as one of the longest in the field.<\/p>\n

Robert MacIntyre ($36 Betfair \/ $40 model)<\/strong> is the model’s pick of that tier. **Bryson DeChambeau ($90 Betfair \/ $127 model)** is trying to avoid a Grand Slam of missed cuts in 2026 and gets the second-worst fit adjustment going, which is not the combination you want.<\/p>\n

Jordan Spieth ($120 Betfair \/ $169 model)<\/strong> skipped the Scottish to arrive early and relearn a course he has good reason to remember fondly. He’s been talking about walking up the 18th again. He’s also been talking about five-irons running 300 yards and bunkers sitting exactly where a five-iron finishes, which suggests the golf brain is engaged even if the golf isn’t.<\/p>\n

Tom Kim ($65 Betfair \/ $65 model)<\/strong> arrives straight from a Scottish Open win, trying to become the first since McIlroy in 2014 to win the week before a major and then the major itself. The Renaissance ranks 105th out of 121 tour courses for similarity to Birkdale, so file that under momentum rather than transferable skill.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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Weather<\/h2>\n
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This is where the week gets interesting. Merseyside is mid-heatwave and Birkdale has burned out completely \u2014 players are calling it the firmest ground they’ve played. Fairways are reportedly running so fast that a non-trivial number of caddies think they may end up quicker than the greens by Sunday. The fescue rough, ordinarily the venue’s most reliable defence, has been reduced to decoration.<\/p>\n

Expect low-to-mid twenties \u00b0C through the championship, climbing towards 27\u201328\u00b0C, with rain chances in single digits Thursday and Friday and only creeping towards 20% for the weekend. Winds will be moderate rather than punishing \u2014 steady rather than gusty \u2014 and predominantly from the north for the first two rounds, which is not the prevailing south-westerly the course was routed for. Anyone who survives the cut may get the prevailing wind back on the weekend, which means the field effectively plays two different golf courses.<\/p>\n

The tactical read – distance off the tee is largely neutralised, because firm links turf doesn’t much care how hard you hit it and cares very much whether you can stop it short of the bunker at 300. Spieth’s observation that five-irons are running out to 300 yards, and that the architecture has helpfully placed sand at precisely that number on half the holes, is the whole week in a sentence. Positional golf with a fairway metal or long iron, and then the hard part: holding a firm, raised green from a firm, running fairway. Distance control into the greens decides this. With no wind and no rough to speak of, the 2017 template \u2014 Grace’s 62, Spieth at 12-under \u2014 looks a lot more likely than 2008.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Betting Markets<\/h2>\n
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The Open outright has matched over $2.1 million across 156 selections, with no obvious liquidity holes at the top.<\/p>\n

The headline structure is Scheffler at $10 ($228k matched) and McIlroy at $11 ($250k) \u2014 and McIlroy has outdrawn the defending champion and world number one on volume, which tells you where the retail money lives. Both have been stable over the last 24 hours, trading in narrow bands. The season-long charts show the pair grinding slowly shorter since last September, which is to say the market picked its favourites a long time ago and has spent ten months confirming the choice.<\/p>\n

The real movement has been in the tier below. Fitzpatrick’s long-term chart is a slow-motion collapse from $120 to $18.50, punctuated by a sharp crash in March as the wins piled up, and he now sits alongside Fleetwood at the head of the English contingent with $128k matched. Fleetwood himself has traded in a tight $17\u2013$19 band for months \u2014 steady, well-supported, $123k matched, with no sign of the hometown money doing anything dramatic. Over the last day Fitzpatrick has drifted a fraction while Fleetwood has held.<\/p>\n

Further down, Morikawa at $34 with $85k matched is the most heavily backed player in that tier, and that volume against Schauffele’s $46k at a similar price is worth noting \u2014 the money likes Morikawa’s iron play in the wind. Rahm has taken $95k and drifted gently over the last 24 hours. Gotterup’s chart is the season’s other big move – $120 in December, out to $65 in early July, then crashed back to $36 after the John Deere. Hatton has attracted $70k and drifted slightly; MacIntyre has firmed marginally on $56k.<\/p>\n

The overall read – efficient at the very top, increasingly generous as you go down. The model’s biggest disagreements with the market sit in the $30\u2013$60 band \u2014 Morikawa, Rose, Clark, Hatton, Lowry \u2014 where the market appears to be paying a premium for links pedigree and English hope. And its single largest objection is an $11 McIlroy being handed the worst course fit adjustment in the field.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Top Picks<\/h2>\n
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A note on what follows. These are all small plays. The Kelly output this week has produced something genuinely unusual: the largest stake sits on a $240 shot, and the shortest price among the five is $60. Kelly is not supposed to behave like this. It normally clusters its money on players it half-believes in \u2014 the $30s and $40s where a modest edge on a reasonable probability produces a meaningful bet. Instead it has spread a series of thin stakes across a group of accurate, unspectacular ball-strikers and told us it likes the long shots best. That is what a compressed-skill Open venue does to a model: when the favourites have no separation to exploit and the price is short anyway, the value drifts to the guys the market has forgotten. Stake accordingly.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n

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Betfair’s golf analyst provides Open Championship tips including course insight, player fits and betting advice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":37425,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"tipster_notification_checkbox":false,"send_notification":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,16],"tags":[],"brand":[],"class_list":["post-9528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-expert-tips","category-golf"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Open Championship Tips | Preview & Strategies | Betfair Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Betfair's golf analyst provides the Open Championship tips including course insight, player fits and betting advice.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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