{"id":942,"date":"2022-09-28T05:19:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-28T05:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bfhubprod.wpengine.com\/hub\/?p=942"},"modified":"2024-08-21T17:07:49","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T07:07:49","slug":"the-picker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/education\/punter-insights\/the-picker\/","title":{"rendered":"MEET TIM"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tim\u2019 is a 33-year-old Melbourne-based greyhound punter who came to this endeavour partly by chance in his mid-20s. Tim bumped into \u2018Bob\u2019, who shared his experiences on Betfair with Tim.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe had an old computer program focused on betting on the dogs. He said he\u2019d be happy to show me. He also said he\u2019d shown it to others before but they hadn\u2019t been able to make it work but it really pricked my interest.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019d spent a lot of time working in pubs and having the occasional bet and found that I was generally able to win on the dogs but not on the horses, so obviously his approach struck a bit of a chord with me,\u2019 Tim said.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

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VIDEO ANALYSIS<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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The approach centres on profiling each greyhound via video and times analysis.<\/p>\n

\u201cI want to know the idiosyncrasies of each dog and generally they\u2019re not that difficult to read. When you see a first starter, drawn out, go straight to the fence you can be pretty confident that will be its pattern throughout its career.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can work out early whether the greyhound is chasing the lure or chasing other dogs. Many will go to the leader and not go past. Maybe one in ten of that type will go past the leader but if they\u2019re 6\/4 pops I\u2019ve got an edge taking them on,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n

The video analysis is married with clocking the first splits of a race and having a feel for overall times at the various tracks.<\/p>\n

\u201cRule one is never miss a run. If I don\u2019t know a certain dog, I\u2019ll watch all its videos. The computer spits out a printout of my ratings and then I frame a market which will be adjusted according to the box draw.\u00a0 For example, the best dog might be drawn in three but if those drawn in four, five and six are all \u2018fence crashers\u2019 you have to reassess and would immediately look to those drawn seven or eight,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

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BETTING APPROACH <\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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A typical meeting sees Tim spend two to three hours creating his markets; doing the videos between races and perhaps just five minutes in actual betting.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019re generally waiting until the last couple of minutes for the liquidity to build in the market and it can be strong enough now on Betfair even on a greyhound race, with as much as almost $20,000 matched. I\u2019m a \u2018picker\u2019 of the market rather than a price setter and I\u2019m happy to wait.<\/p>\n

\u201cBetfair\u2019s vital for me with the tote diminishing and limited access to the corporates. The Betfair market is strong enough for me to get on a favourite. I can have a decent bet, in the last minute or so, on a favourite,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Tim\u2019s fundamental bet strategy is to back two or more runners in every race he bets on and his bet size is usually instinctive.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe object is to consistently make money so I\u2019m happy to hedge. I\u2019m happy to back two at, say, $4 and be content with the evens. I\u2019m 90% win betting and 10% quaddies. I know my sweet spot which is dogs around the $2.60 to $3.0 mark. Betting up is usually instinctive but there are two key factors. The first is that I expect the dog will get a clear run, according to my map, and the second is that the dog is at its peak.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re animals, not robots, so your maps will not always work out. The map might be right three or four times out of 12 but that\u2019s enough if you\u2019re opting to play the right races. I also keep my betting statistics at each track. It makes sense to spend more on the tracks where you\u2019re having success\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

His methodology typifies that of most successful punters \u2013 as it\u2019s based on hard work, discipline and finding an edge. But, in his case as he candidly admits, his edge is no secret.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy edge is out there for everyone to see. Understanding the racing pattern of the greyhound. Plenty of people do the form but they need to do more in terms of videos. It\u2019s not hard. Just go to\u00a0The Watchdog<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0at GRV (Greyhound Racing Victoria). It\u2019s about 30 seconds a race to watch a greyhound race video.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are other factors of course as it\u2019s one thing to read a race and another to make money out of it but it can be done,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n

Another of those factors is discipline which is vital according to Tim. \u201cI had a very good mentor who taught me to shut down the computer. If there\u2019s a couple of races to go but no perceived value, then just shut down and walk away. I\u2019ve also learned that many crumbs equal a loaf.\u201d<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

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“THE FAIREST OF THE THREE CODES”<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n \n \n
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\u201cPatience is a virtue. I started with a small bank and bet modestly but gradually increased and even now, if things aren\u2019t rolling my way, I\u2019ll pull back,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n

Tim takes an interest in the thoroughbred code but bets almost exclusively on greyhound racing and is a great advocate of the sport.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think greyhound racing is the fairest of the three codes. I think the integrity\u2019s very good. I\u2019m never second guessing myself. The prize money is too good, relative to costs, for trainers or owners to worry about trying to be \u2018tricky\u2019,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n

He would like to see some innovation including greyhound match races. \u201cThere hasn\u2019t been too much evolution in greyhound racing. Match races might work given that young punters seem to prefer to bet on things like the footy where it\u2019s simple, A versus B,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n

The Melbournian has no regrets about his chosen path or abandoning his earlier pursuits which might have led to a grander sporting stage. \u201cI guess you could say this is my sport now,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do you want to hear from a real pro punter and learn about his greyhound betting strategy? Tim from Melbourne is the man, and a real Betfair client. Get all the details of his greyhound betting strategy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":46762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"tipster_notification_checkbox":false,"send_notification":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"brand":[],"class_list":["post-942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-punter-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMeet Tim | Betfair Punter Insights | Betfair Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Do you want to hear from a real pro punter and learn about his greyhound betting strategy? 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