{"id":7733,"date":"2023-06-14T17:22:03","date_gmt":"2023-06-14T07:22:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/?p=7733"},"modified":"2026-06-17T11:31:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T01:31:09","slug":"us-open-golf-tips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/sports\/golf\/us-open-golf-tips\/","title":{"rendered":"EXPERT GOLF TIPS: US OPEN"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The 126th U.S. Open Preview: Shinnecock Bites Back<\/h2>\n
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Model-based betting preview for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, June 18\u201321.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The 126th U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York – a venue that has hosted five previous Opens across three different centuries and has managed to generate controversy in roughly half of them. Brooks Koepka won here in 2018 at one over par, the same week Phil Mickelson swatted a moving ball off a green and the USGA resorted to hosing down putting surfaces mid-round. Before that, the 2004 edition produced a final-round scoring average north of eight over and became a case study in how not to set up a golf course. The USGA, to its credit, appears to have absorbed the lesson. This time, they’re promising to let Shinnecock be Shinnecock – wider fairways, slower greens, and a setup that trusts the architecture rather than trying to manufacture misery. Whether the weather cooperates is another question entirely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scottie Scheffler arrives as the $7.80 favourite on the exchange (model price: $8.40) chasing the final leg of the career Grand Slam, with Rory McIlroy ($15.50 Betfair \/ $17.45 model), Jon Rahm ($19.50 \/ $22), and Xander Schauffele ($21 \/ $20) forming a predictably elite top tier. The market has matched over $1.7 million so far – a little subdued as the World Cup currently dominates bettor interest. All of these prices are miles better than what the corporates are offering, as the Exchange remains by far the best place to bet on stick ball\u2026 and pretty much everything else!<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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The Course: How Shinnecock Will Play<\/h2>\n
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Shinnecock Hills is a William Flynn design sitting on the windswept eastern tip of Long Island, playing as a par 70 at approximately 7,440 yards. The routing is triangular – holes run in multiple directions, which means the wind never helps for long and hurt is always around the corner. Flynn’s genius was in using the natural sandy terrain, elevation changes, and coastal exposure to build a course that defends itself without gimmickry. The green complexes are crowned with shaved run-offs, collection areas, and enough internal contour to make a lag putt feel like parallel parking.<\/p>\n

The headline change for 2026 is fairway width. The USGA has committed to playing Shinnecock at its original 1931 Flynn dimensions for the first time in U.S. Open history. Fairways will average around 45 yards wide, compared to 28 yards in 2004 and roughly 47 yards in 2018. The 2018 data showed driving accuracy at 71.5% with those wider corridors – considerably higher than the U.S. Open average of 62.9% and even above the PGA Tour norm of 65.3%. Reports suggest 2026 will be at least as generous off the tee.<\/p>\n

Wider fairways sound easier, but that’s the trap. More width means more options, and more options at Shinnecock means more ways to get the angle wrong. The course’s real teeth are everywhere else. In 2018, approach play from under 150 yards was the second-hardest in the entire shot-level database (behind only Augusta National in 2024), while fairway chip shots around the green were the single most difficult on record. The greens themselves will start on the Stimpmeter just above 11 – the slowest at a U.S. Open in recent memory, and a stark contrast to Oakmont’s 15.5 last year. McIlroy noted in his Monday practice round that even with moderate gusts, balls wouldn’t hold the 11th green, suggesting the USGA will need to exercise caution with speeds as the wind builds.<\/p>\n

The rough is a Fescue\/Poa blend that has historically been savage. In 2018, the missed-fairway penalty was 0.5 strokes – well above the PGA Tour average of 0.36 – and hack-outs averaged 1.3 per round. The penalty areas themselves rarely came into play, but the rough more than compensated. In variance terms, 2018 Shinnecock produced a score standard deviation of 3.2 strokes versus the Tour average of 2.7, with approach play contributing a whopping 40% of total variance – far above the Tour norm of 35%.<\/p>\n

Last time we were here the raw data told us the track firmly favoured accuracy over length. However, a deeper dive tells a more nuanced story – longer hitters didn’t lose distance off the tee relative to the field, but the correlation between driving distance skill and in-tournament driving distance was unusually low. The course rewarded keeping the ball in play above all else, but it didn’t specifically penalise length. This lines up with Shinnecock overindexing on importance of all strokes gained categories, meaning Shinnecock rewards overall skill more than the average Tour event.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Player News and Storylines<\/h2>\n
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Scheffler ($7.80 Betfair \/ $8.40 model)<\/strong> has the kind of week ahead that scriptwriters would reject for being too on-the-nose. The final round falls on his 30th birthday and Father’s Day, and a win would make him the seventh player to complete the career Grand Slam – and just the second in the modern era to do it on his first attempt, after Tiger Woods. The narrative practically writes itself, which is exactly the kind of thing golf enjoys subverting.<\/p>\n

His 2026 season has been frustrating by the absurd standards he has set. One win (The American Express in January), six top-fives, three runner-up finishes, and an 11-start winless drought – his third-longest since his maiden victory. The underlying numbers tell an interesting story: unlike his previous winless stretches, the putter has actually been an asset this time around, gaining +0.5 strokes per round. His overall game sits at +2.8 SG per round – still comfortably the best in the world – but his approach play has slipped to +0.9, ranking roughly 10th. For a player who led the PGA Tour in approach by half a stroke in 2024, that’s a significant regression.<\/p>\n

Zooming out, Scheffler’s skill level has drifted down from the peak he hit last August, reducing by about half a stroke per round. The gap between him and the field remains wide, but it’s no longer a chasm – it’s more like a contested lead that two or three players could realistically close. At the Masters, he roared back from 12 shots behind McIlroy at halfway with a 65-68 weekend to finish solo second, one shot back. At the PGA, he was T14 after opening with a 67 before fading. He arrives at Shinnecock having found something in his game at Augusta that he hadn’t shown for months – whether it’s still there is the question.<\/p>\n

McIlroy ($15.50 \/ $17.45)<\/strong> defended his Masters title in April, joining Nicklaus, Faldo, and Woods as back-to-back winners, and now sits on six career majors. He’s looked slightly off since Augusta – his only start between majors produced a T19 at the Truist, where he cratered on the weekend with five bogeys in 11 holes – but McIlroy has always treated non-major weeks as expensive practice rounds. His price has barely budged from the $14\u201316 range all year, drifting slightly wider since the PGA. The 24-hour charts show flat, listless trading around $15.50, which suggests the market views him as priced about right.<\/p>\n

His relationship with Shinnecock is complicated. He missed the cut here in 2018 and has historically run hot and cold at U.S. Opens – though his recent run (three top-10s in the last four) suggests the reinvented, more patient McIlroy has figured out how to play this championship. The wider fairways should suit his length off the tee, and his scrambling has been strong enough to handle Shinnecock’s brutal surrounds.<\/p>\n

Tommy Fleetwood ($23 \/ $26)<\/strong> finished runner-up to Koepka in the 2018 edition here, posting a true SG of +4.12 for the week – the best performance of anyone in the field who has played Shinnecock. That’s only four rounds and therefore more descriptive than predictive, but it’s hard to ignore.<\/p>\n

Matt Fitzpatrick ($23 \/ $26)<\/strong> has won three of his last five starts to become arguably the form player in golf right now, but his profile creates an awkward tension with this course. He won the 2022 U.S. Open at Brookline, so he knows what it takes to survive this championship, and his previous Shinnecock showing was strong – a T12. The problem is that Fitzpatrick is an accuracy-first, shorter-hitting player, and Shinnecock’s wide fairways reduce the premium on his primary weapon.<\/p>\n

Cameron Young ($28 \/ $31)<\/strong> grew up on classic Northeast parkland at Sleepy Hollow Country Club and is having the season of his life – two wins including The Players Championship, a six-shot demolition at the Cadillac Championship, and a T3 at the Masters. He’s a New York kid playing a New York U.S. Open on a course that looks and feels like the architecture he grew up on. The concern is that he’s never been the favourite at a major, his final round 74 at the Truist featured a four-putt, and major pressure is a different beast. His<\/p>\n

Rahm ($20 \/ $22)<\/strong> remains an enigma at majors since joining LIV. His results in majors post-defection read T45, MC, WD, T7, T38, and T2 (at the PGA, his best result). His head-to-head record with Scheffler in events they’ve both played is brutal – and his career-long major performance relative to model expectations is essentially flat, unlike players like Schauffele and Koepka who consistently outperform their baseline at the biggest events. The model still rates him highly – he’s second in the model rankings and has been dominant on LIV – but the $20 Betfair price feels about right for a player whose talent is beyond question but whose major gear remains unproven.<\/p>\n

Koepka ($60 \/ $70)<\/strong> won the 2018 U.S. Open at this very course – his second consecutive national championship. The romance of a return to the scene of his greatest triumph, however, is colliding with reality. He withdrew from the Canadian Open last week after numbness in his ring and pinky fingers made it difficult to grip the club. Medical scans of his C5 and C6 vertebrae came back clear, but his team is investigating a potential ulnar nerve flare-up or thoracic outlet syndrome. He skipped Monday’s practice, arrived Tuesday, and declared himself fit to play – but at $60, the market has priced the risk accordingly.<\/p>\n

Schauffele ($21 \/ $20)<\/strong> is one of the few elite players whose major performance consistently exceeds his baseline. He’s never finished outside the top 15 at a U.S. Open, and his 2018 Shinnecock performance was outstanding – T6 and SG stats strongly above expectation. The model prices him slightly shorter than the market at $20.08 versus $22, so he\u2019s a decent play if you\u2019re interested.<\/p>\n

Defending champion J.J. Spaun ($75 \/ $65)<\/strong> won last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont as a 300-1 shot and has since added a Valero Texas Open title plus three top-fives. He’s gone from afterthought to legitimate threat, though the $65 price suggests the market views his Oakmont win as a course-specific outlier rather than a paradigm shift. His model price agrees.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Course History and Course Fit<\/h2>\n
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Course history is doing almost nothing predictive this week. Shinnecock last hosted a PGA Tour event in 2018, and most contenders have either four or zero rounds at the venue. Only Justin Rose, with six rounds across the 2004 (missed cut) and 2018 (T10) editions, has enough data to generate a meaningful adjustment – and even this is tiny. The standout individual performances from 2018 belong to Koepka , Fleetwood, Dusty Johnson and Patrick Reed. On the flip side, Rahm (missed cut) and McIlroy (missed cut) had weeks they’d rather forget. The model treats these four-round samples with appropriate scepticism – performance adjustments max out around 0.03\u20130.04 strokes per round.<\/p>\n

The course fit radar tells a more useful story. Shinnecock’s profile overindexes heavily on driving distance – while driving accuracy and approach play also explain more variance in scoring than at a typical event.<\/p>\n

Putting, by contrast, underindexes quite sharply, and around-the-green play sits roughly at the Tour norm. The message is that Shinnecock rewards the complete ball-striker who can carry the ball a long way and control approach shots into contoured greens, and it doesn’t particularly reward putting wizards. That’s a profile that suits Scheffler (+0.15 total course fit adjustment), Fleetwood (+0.15), Fitzpatrick (+0.10), Morikawa (+0.10), and Hovland (+0.09) – all of whom pick up meaningful positive adjustments through some combination of short game and approach play. Notable losers include McIlroy (who would usually take in a big positive overlay but is neutral here), who gets dinged for his distance advantage being somewhat neutralised by the wide fairways reducing the accuracy premium, and DeChambeau, whose distance-heavy profile actually hurts because the accuracy component of his game underperforms at a venue that still demands precision.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Weather<\/h2>\n
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The four-day forecast reads like a stress test for course management. Thursday looks like the toughest draw, with highs around 29\u00b0C and wind gusts pushing 47\u201348 kph from the south-southwest – enough to turn Shinnecock’s crowned greens into skating rinks and make those long-iron approaches into par-4s genuinely terrifying. There’s a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms, which could create a significant split between the morning and afternoon waves. Friday eases slightly with highs near 27\u00b0C and gusts to 42 kph. Saturday brings sunshine, temperatures around 26\u00b0C, but the wind actually peaks with gusts to 50 kph. Sunday is the friendliest day – highs near 27\u00b0C, gusts dropping to 34 kph, and minimal rain chance.<\/p>\n

The wind directions rotate through the week, which is significant on a triangular routing – no group of holes will play consistently downwind for four days. The early starters on Thursday should have a material advantage if the afternoon storms materialise, and shrewd punters will be watching the wave draw closely.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Betting Markets<\/h2>\n
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The Betfair outright winner market has matched A$1.7 million<\/strong>, with Scheffler’s $189k in volume accounting for about 11% of the total. The market structure at the top has been remarkably stable – Scheffler has hovered between $7.40 and $8.40 all season<\/strong>, and despite the winless streak, nobody’s rushing to lay him. McIlroy’s price-over-time chart shows a gentle drift from $10 post-Masters to $15.50<\/strong>, reflecting a market that’s cooling slightly on his chances without losing faith in his credentials. Rahm, as mentioned, has been immovable around $20.<\/p>\n

The more interesting stories are in the middle tier. Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood have converged around $23\u201324<\/strong> after dramatically different trajectories – Fitzpatrick crashing in from $80+<\/strong> on the back of three wins, Fleetwood drifting steadily shorter as his European form translated. Young has compressed from triple digits to $29 as his breakout season has unfolded. \u00c5berg ($32 \/ $29.32)<\/strong> sits just behind them, attracting $34k in matched volume that seems disproportionate to his recent major form.<\/p>\n

In the $40\u201355 band, Si Woo Kim ($42 \/ $41.20)<\/strong> has been a dramatic mover – in from $240 since January as his season form has exploded. His 24-hour chart shows stable trading with $58k in volume, the highest in this tier. Sam Burns ($44 \/ $48.08)<\/strong> and DeChambeau ($48 \/ $54.31)<\/strong> round out the group, though DeChambeau has missed the cut at both majors this year and the model considers him overpriced at $50 against a fair value closer to $54.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n

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Looking for 2026 Golf US Open tips and predictions? Our Golf Experts have you covered! Find the most up to date information on this years Major tournament ahead of the first round at Shinnecock Hills in New York.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":56,"featured_media":37844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"tipster_notification_checkbox":false,"send_notification":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,16],"tags":[],"brand":[],"class_list":["post-7733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-expert-tips","category-golf"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS Open Tips 2026 | Golf Betting Predictions | Betfair Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get the edge on the 2026 US Open with our US Open (Golf) tips and predictions. Elevate your wagering and stay ahead of the competition. Join us now!\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/sports\/golf\/us-open-golf-tips\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EXPERT GOLF TIPS: US OPEN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Get the edge on the 2026 US Open with our US Open (Golf) tips and predictions. Elevate your wagering and stay ahead of the competition. 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