{"id":6880,"date":"2023-05-11T14:38:04","date_gmt":"2023-05-11T04:38:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/?p=6880"},"modified":"2026-05-14T08:50:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T22:50:49","slug":"pga-championship-tips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/sports\/golf\/pga-championship-tips\/","title":{"rendered":"EXPERT TIPS: PGA CHAMPIONSHIP"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The 108th PGA Championship Preview: Aronimink Awaits<\/h2>\n
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The 108th PGA Championship brings the Wanamaker Trophy to Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania \u2014 the first men’s major at this venue since Gary Player won here by a single shot in 1962. That’s a 64-year drought, which means virtually nobody in the field has meaningful course history and the modelling exercise this week leans more heavily than usual on course fit overlays, skill decompositions, and the broader form lines coming into the week. Scottie Scheffler defends his title as the $6.60 favourite, with back-to-back Masters champion Rory McIlroy ($11), breakout star Cameron Young ($14.50), and the ever-polarising Jon Rahm ($18) rounding out a top tier that the Betfair market has been pricing in for months.<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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The Course: How Aronimink Will Play<\/h2>\n
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Aronimink is a Donald Ross design that plays as a par 70 at 7,394 yards – 114 yards longer than when it last hosted a PGA Tour event, the 2018 BMW Championship. The fairways average roughly 30 yards wide, the rough is a Tall Fescue\/Poa blend cut to 3.25 inches, and approximately 180 bunkers are scattered across the layout. The greens are Penn A-1\/A-4 bentgrass cut at .100 inches, featuring the bold contours and severe slopes Ross was famous for. Several green complexes are bordered by water, collection areas, and deep bunkers – the 11th demands such precise spin control that a slightly short approach can roll 50 yards back down the fairway, and the 17th, a long par 3 with water running the entire left side, should produce Sunday afternoon theatre.<\/p>\n

Despite the classic aesthetics, the data tells a counter-intuitive story. Historical results from the three PGA Tour events held here since 2010 show Aronimink playing as moderately bomber-friendly. Longer hitters separated off the tee in all three tournaments, gaining roughly a yard of distance advantage per yard of power – well above the tour average. The missed-fairway penalty was about average: the rough was punishing, but penalty areas rarely came into play. Gil Hanse’s 2017 restoration widened fairways and removed trees, further reducing the premium on accuracy. McIlroy was blunt about it in his practice round presser: “Strategy off the tee is pretty nonexistent. It’s, basically, bash driver down there and then figure it out from there.”<\/p>\n

The approach profile is also unusual. The front nine should produce a lot of wedge approaches, while the 15th and 18th have been lengthened by roughly 30 yards each since 2018, creating a polarised distribution – lots of shots from inside 150 yards and from 200-plus, with fewer than normal from the 150\u2013200 yard bin that typically dominates on tour. Players who excel with wedges and long irons into contoured greens should thrive.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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PLAYER NOTES<\/h2>\n
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Scheffler ($6.60)<\/strong> arrives on the back of three consecutive runner-up finishes and is winless in his last eight starts \u2014 only his third drought of that length since his maiden tour win. The underlying cause was a dip in approach play to its lowest level since 2022, but that metric has recovered sharply since the Masters. His statistical trajectory mirrors 2025 almost exactly: nine starts, multiple top fives, one win heading into the PGA. Last year, that sequence ended with a five-shot Wanamaker victory.<\/p>\n

McIlroy ($11)<\/strong> defended his Masters title last month – beating Scheffler by one after nearly coughing up a record six-shot halfway lead \u2014 to become just the fourth player to win back-to-back green jackets. He’s now on six career majors, tying Faldo, and a win this week would make him the first player since Spieth in 2015 to take the year’s first two majors. His only post-Augusta start was an uninspiring T19 at the Truist, but McIlroy has always treated inter-major weeks as warm-up acts. He also gets the best course fit adjustment in the field at +0.16 strokes per round.<\/p>\n

Young ($14.50)<\/strong> is having a career-defining season – two wins (The Players and the Cadillac Championship by six shots over Scheffler), a +0.12 course fit adjustment, and the fact that he grew up at Sleepy Hollow Country Club on classic Northeast parkland architecture virtually identical to Aronimink. He’s also won on another Donald Ross design (Sedgefield). The concern is a final-round 74 at the Truist last week, featuring a four-putt, and the question of whether he can handle major favouritism for the first time.<\/p>\n

Fitzpatrick ($29)<\/strong> has won three of his last five starts but gets only a modest +0.04 course fit adjustment – his accuracy-dependent, shorter-hitting profile is slightly penalised at a venue that rewards distance over precision off the tee. His driver cracked during practice at the Truist, leading to a T52, but that should be sorted by Thursday.<\/p>\n

Morikawa ($50)<\/strong> is battling a lingering back injury that has plagued him since The Players, where spasms forced a withdrawal after one hole. His caddie has been handing him his water bottle to avoid unnecessary bending. He managed a T7 at the Masters and T4 at the Heritage while injured, but his course fit adjustment is -0.05 – distance deficit and accuracy orientation working against him here. The market has drifted him from around $25 pre-injury to $50, which feels about right.<\/p>\n

Rahm ($18)<\/strong> remains elite on LIV \u2014 two wins, three seconds, barely outside the top five all year – but his major record since joining the breakaway league is hard to ignore and not in a good way: he has just three top 10s across nine starts. What’s particularly striking is that this isn’t just a post-LIV blip. Across his entire career, Rahm’s major performance relative to model expectations is essentially flat – unlike Scheffler, Schauffele, Morikawa, and Koepka, who all consistently elevate above their baseline at majors. The head-to-head record with Scheffler underlines it: 10-0-2 in their last twelve starts together, with Rahm’s last win over him dating to the 2023 Open. Eleven LIV players are in the field this week, and the PIF funding withdrawal hanging over the league adds an extra layer of distraction.<\/p>\n

Spieth<\/strong> makes his tenth attempt at the career Grand Slam but hasn’t posted a top-10 in 12 starts this season. He’s returning from wrist surgery and described his form as “Whack-a-Mole” – leading in putting one week, driving the next, never all at once. His only Aronimink start produced a T55 in 2018. The romance is real; the form says fade.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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WEATHER<\/h2>\n
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Thursday carries a 35% chance of rain with temperatures around 20 degree and wind gusts to 50 km\/h \u2014 enough to complicate long-iron approaches into Ross’s tilted greens. Friday is slightly milder but still breezy. Saturday brings sunshine and warmer temperature, while Sunday should be the pick of the week: high-20s, minimal rain, easing winds. The region is in a mild drought, which should keep the course firm and fast. This is almost exactly the inverse of the 2018 BMW here, which copped over seven inches of rain from Friday to Sunday.<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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COURSE HISTORY AND FIT<\/h2>\n
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Course history is doing almost nothing to model outputs this week. Rose leads the field with 12 rounds at Aronimink; most contenders have four or zero. Schauffele’s 2018 BMW performance \u2014 nearly three strokes per round above expectation, finishing T3 – is the standout, but at four rounds it’s descriptively interesting rather than predictive.<\/span><\/p>\n

The course fit overlay is more useful. Aronimink’s radar profile elevates driving distance, short game, and approach play while de-emphasising accuracy. The top beneficiaries among contenders: McIlroy, Young, DeChambeau, Min Woo Lee , Scheffler, and Schauffele all take small but significant overlays in here with the Irishman’s sixth of a stoke the largest in the field. The message is clear – Aronimink rewards the complete player with a distance advantage, and penalises accuracy-first profiles that lack length.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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BETTING MARKETS<\/h2>\n
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The Betfair outright winner market has matched over A$2.74 million, with Scheffler alone accounting for roughly A$340k – about 12% of total volume. The market structure has been remarkably stable at the top: Scheffler has barely budged from $6.60 all season despite the winless streak, and McIlroy has hovered between $10 and $11.50 for months, tightening slightly after the Masters repeat. Rahm has been flat as a pancake around $18 since the market opened \u2014 the market has essentially shrugged at both his LIV dominance and his major struggles, pricing him as a known quantity that nobody’s rushing to back or lay.<\/span><\/p>\n

The dramatic movers tell the season’s story. Cameron Young opened around $70-100 back in September and has crashed to $15 – a Players Championship win and a six-shot demolition at Doral will do that, though A$160k matched suggests the liquidity has followed the form rather than anticipated it. Matt Fitzpatrick has traced a similar trajectory, collapsing from $80-95 to $30 on the back of three wins in five starts. By contrast, Morikawa has drifted sharply from $25-30 to $50 as the back injury has lingered \u2014 classic injury drift that the market has priced efficiently.<\/p>\n

In the middle tier, \u00c5berg ($22) has attracted a surprisingly heavy A$237k in matched volume – more than Schauffele ($21, A$100k) despite sitting at a similar price. That looks like retail money chasing the name; \u00c5berg has historically been overpriced by the markets at majors relative to model expectations, though the gap has narrowed this week. Koepka ($46) saw a sharp shortening when he returned to the PGA Tour in January before drifting back out \u2014 a market that got excited about the narrative and then remembered the form.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n\n\n\n

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Want to learn how to lay bet?<\/h3>\n \"Expand\"\n <\/div>\n\n
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When you place a lay bet, you are betting on something not to happen. Let\u2019s think about the Melbourne Cup again. Remember: there can only be one winner. But what about the others trailing behind them? If you place a lay bet in a \u201cWin\u201d market, you can celebrate if the runner tails off at the back of the field.<\/p>\n\n

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Looking for expert PGA Championship tips? Find comprehensive insights, analysis, and betting strategies right here from Betfair’s Golf Analyst. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":56,"featured_media":37238,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"tipster_notification_checkbox":false,"send_notification":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,16],"tags":[],"brand":[],"class_list":["post-6880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-expert-tips","category-golf"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPGA Championship Tips 2026 | Predictions & Best Bets | Betfair Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Looking for expert PGA Championship tips? 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