{"id":6469,"date":"2023-05-03T11:10:44","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T01:10:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/?p=6469"},"modified":"2024-11-06T13:12:54","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T02:12:54","slug":"us-election-betting-tips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/sports\/politics\/us-election-betting-tips\/","title":{"rendered":"EXPERT TIPS: US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION"},"content":{"rendered":"
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RECENT MARKET MOVES<\/h2>\n
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Money has hit hard for Kamala Harris over the last 72 hours with Donald Trump out from a low of $1.45 midweek to around the $1.80 mark. Driven by early voting trends, the highly respected Selzer Poll in Iowa and increasingly desperate messaging from Republicans around electoral fraud in key battleground states has seen a huge surge of wagering support for Harris over the last three days. Harris is currently into $2.24 with all the momentum.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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BETFAIR ELECTION UPDATE (ELECTION DAY)<\/h2>\n
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After a huge rally for Kamala Harris across the weekend, Donald Trump has firmed from $1.80 to $1.62 to reclaim the Presidency over the last 48 hours of the election. The move comes in the face of Nate Silver\u2019s final simulations that gives Harris a razor-thin edge.<\/p>\n

With Election Night upon us, here is what to watch for:<\/p>\n

Turnout
\n<\/strong>At a base level, the higher the turnout, the better the result is likely to be for Kamala Harris and the Democrats. This is not entirely true though. Look for increased turnout in urban areas and areas with disproportionately large African American populations to boost confidence in Harris. Look for increases in rural and suburban counties as a suggestion Trump will win.<\/p>\n

Polls Closing
\n<\/strong>Polls close across the US at different times. First polls close at 11am Australian Eastern Daylight time including Georgia. Others close 30 minutes later including North Carolina. Sixteen states close at midday including key state Pennsylvania. Michigan closes at 1pm Nevada at 2pm. California closes at 3pm while Hawaii closes at 4pm.<\/p>\n

Exit Polls
\n<\/strong>Look for signs in exit polls. Look for Democrats who have switched to Trump (or vice versa) or non-voters who have turned out this time. Anger as a reason for voting will usually lead to support for Trump. Fear will favour Harris.<\/p>\n

Jill Stein
\n<\/strong>Jill Stein, the Greens candidate, is going to have a huge impact on the election outcome. The more her vote increases, the more she is likely to steal votes from Kamala Harris. Michigan, in particular, is well worth watching.<\/p>\n

Georgia
\n<\/strong>Georgia is the first swing state to close its polls. The Democrats were surprise winners of Georgia in 2020, the first time the state had gone blue since 1992. The counties to watch include Washington and Baldwin counties, that slightly went to Biden in 2020, and Fayette County, in the Atlanta suburbs, has seen a huge influx of college educated voters. Trump won Fayette County by 19 in 2016 and 7 in 2020 but Harris will need to go close to winning to claim Georgia.<\/p>\n

North Carolina
\n<\/strong>Trump is a firm favourite to claim North Carolina but the big watch here will be the turnout of African-American voters that will dictate the state. Keep an eye on Mecklenburg and Wake Counties to garner the enthusiasm for Harris as turnout has typically been low in the two blue counties. Nash County is a bellwether county with the winner of it claiming the state at the last three elections.<\/p>\n

Michigan and Wisconsin
\n<\/strong>The \u2018Blue Wall\u2019 has voted together since 1992 so both will be watched closely as not only battleground states within themselves but as part of a greater picture. Muskegon County in Michigan has seen Democrat support fall but is viewed as a good guide for how working class women view Harris. Saginaw County was narrowly claimed by Biden last election but is a view of working class whites on Trump. Harris needs to win big i Dane and Milwaukee Counties if she is to take Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

Pennsylvania<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pennsylvania is the most important battleground state and the winner of the state will almost certainly claim the presidency. Bucks County is one to watch. It is a white working class county that has only recently seen voter registration flip to the GOP. It is a seat that will give indicators as to how Harris resonates with white working class voters. Cumberland County has been tracking for improved Democratic results and Harris will need a good turnout. Northampton County has been a bellwether that has voted for the President all but three times over the last century and has a large hispanic population. Berks County is another with a large hispanic population.<\/p>\n

Nevada and Arizona<\/strong><\/p>\n

Maricopa County in Arizona and Washoe County in Nevada will be the key counties to watch in the Western battleground states. Maricopa was close last time and was a central hub for claims of voter fraud after it went to Biden by 2.2 points. Harris needs to outperform in Washoe County with Clark County expected to go heavily in favour of Trump.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

Betting Strategy<\/p>\n

BACK: Democrats to Win Iowa @ $3.25 or Larger
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\r\nThe Republicans remains firm favourites to retain Iowa with few considering the state to be in play but following the recent Selzer poll in Iowa and given it has been 80 years since Iowans have gone back-to-back without voting for the President, the Dems are over the odds and worth a small play.<\/p>\n

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