{"id":295,"date":"2022-08-30T03:56:59","date_gmt":"2022-08-30T03:56:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bfhubprod.wpengine.com\/hub\/?p=295"},"modified":"2026-03-05T11:52:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T00:52:28","slug":"afl-predictions-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/sports\/afl\/afl-predictions-model\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL PREDICTIONS MODEL"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"model-content block\">\n  <div class=\"container reduced-width\">\n    <div class=\"pb-6\">\n              <div class=\"model-content__widget pb-6 overflow-auto\">\n          <div id='betfair-afl-widget'><\/div>\n<link rel=\"stylesheet\" media=\"all\" href=\"https:\/\/betfair-widgets-prod.herokuapp.com\/assets\/afl-widget-f221eb55d3936809be9a4fff1b3062de67962a0e27585637156438c112d01477.css\" turbolinks=\"true\" \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/betfair-widgets-prod.herokuapp.com\/assets\/client_app\/afl-widget-226673bb5d1f6de250e302275758766832987079884c36650145d92efbf799ba.js\" turbolinks=\"true\"><\/script>\n<script>\n  widgetId = \"afl-model\"\n  window.betfairAflWidget.start(\"https:\/\/betfair-data-supplier-prod.herokuapp.com\/api\",'betfair-afl-widget', widgetId);\n<\/script>\n\n        <\/div>\n                  <h3 class=\"font-bold font-montserrat uppercase mb-6\">AFL PREDICTIONS MODEL<\/h3>\n      <div class=\"model-content__seo-content\">\n        <p>Most people who have taken part in an AFL footy tipping competition would have at one time or another used \u2018gut feeling\u2019 or some other inexact method to make their round-by-round selections. We might have tipped based on club colours. Or because of a personal dislike for a player or club. Or by using some other obscure idea. And for the most part, we more than likely would have been wrong! Betfair\u2019s cutting-edge AFL Prediction Model takes the guesswork \u2013 and randomness \u2013 out of making AFL predictions. The AFL Prediction Model is yet another example of why Betfair is the industry leader when it comes to putting punters first by arming them with the type of information than can significantly enhance their wagering considerations.<\/p>\n<p>Built by Betfair\u2019s resident data scientists using a range of facts and figures including historic game results and more recent game and player trends, the AFL Prediction Model creates probable outcomes for the 198 home-and-away matches played over 23 rounds each season, plus the nine finals including the AFL Grand Final. What exactly goes into determining these probable outcomes designed to help punters make their AFL predictions? Betfair\u2019s data experts source and consider a range of factors, including teams\u2019 recent performances relative to betting lines, how each team\u2019s selected 22-man squad stacks up against its opponent based on player ratings, how the bottom 25 per cent of each team\u2019s squad rates relatively, and team form at specific venues including home-ground advantage. This data is then fed into a state-of-the-art machine learning system to determine the probable outcomes of games.<\/p>\n<p>These probable outcomes are illustrated via an expected score for each team in each game of the 2025 AFL season including finals. The AFL Prediction Model then calculates<br \/>\n\u2018model\u2019 odds based on the expected scores that enable punters to assess the value of a betting consideration by comparing these odds with the market odds on offer via the Betfair Exchange.<\/p>\n<p>Bettors will note that there are often discrepancies between the AFL Prediction Model odds and the odds offered for games on the Betfair Exchange. It\u2019s important to understand that the AFL Prediction Model provides a price it thinks a team should be set at, based on crunching of the critical data. For example, once the data for a game has been calculated, the AFL Prediction Model might set \u2018Team A\u2019 at $2.20. The market, however, might start \u2018Team A\u2019 at longer odds, say $3.00, which would suggest to punters that \u2018Team A\u2019 could provide excellent betting value.<\/p>\n<p>This innovative ability to allow punters to make these types of comparisons when considering AFL tipping is yet another reason why Betfair \u2013 Australia\u2019s largest betting exchange \u2013 continues to enhance its reputation for putting bettors first. Betfair\u2019s AFL Prediction model and its associated score predictor is the optimum tool for punters looking to refine their AFL wagering strategies and extract maximum value from their AFL betting predictions. And don\u2019t forget, Betfair also provides punters with the choice of either backing or laying a team in an AFL match, an option that underlines Betfair\u2019s punter-first philosophy.<\/p>\n<p>Betfair has all the necessary tools \u2013 created by combining critical data analysed scientifically and the informed opinions of savvy sports betting experts \u2013 to help guide punters with their AFL tipping. Visit our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/sports\/afl\/afl-tips\/\">AFL Expert Tips<\/a> page get more AFL tipping content and to start taking advantage of what\u2019s on offer, sign up to Betfair today.<\/p>\n\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Betfair\u2019s internal team of Data Scientists have created an AFL Predictions Model. The model creates probabilities for every game. Including finals. You\u2019ll often notice discrepancies between the AFL odds on the Betfair Exchange and the probabilities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":37683,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"tipster_notification_checkbox":false,"send_notification":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,10],"tags":[],"brand":[],"class_list":["post-295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-models","category-afl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.5 (Yoast SEO v24.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>AFL Predictions Model | 2026 AFL Score Predictor | Betfair Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Betfair&#039;s AFL Predictions Model provides odds and score probability predictions showing you where the value is in the market.\" 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