{"id":157,"date":"2022-08-05T05:44:28","date_gmt":"2022-08-05T05:44:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bfhubprod.wpengine.com\/hub\/?p=157"},"modified":"2025-06-13T15:01:13","modified_gmt":"2025-06-13T05:01:13","slug":"australian-guineas-tips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.betfair.com.au\/hub\/racing\/horse-racing\/australian-guineas-tips\/","title":{"rendered":"FEATURE PREVIEWS: AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS"},"content":{"rendered":"
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AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS<\/h2>\n
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Track: <\/strong>Flemington\u00a0| Distance:<\/strong> 1600m | Condition:\u00a0<\/strong>3YO SW | Rail Position: <\/strong>+2m | Track Condition: <\/strong>Good 4 | Prizemoney:\u00a0<\/strong>$1,000,000<\/p>\n

Fine weather forecast for Thursday to Saturday. The track should be perfect.<\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span>Won in recent years by quality 3yos including Southport Tycoon, Legarto, Mosheen, Shamus Award, Palentino, Hey Doc, Grunt, Alligator Blood & Hitotsu.<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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HISTORICAL PROFILING (LAST 12 YEARS)<\/h2>\n
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Days since last start <\/span>7-10 (0\/27), <\/span>14 (7\/105), 15 (1\/3), 17-20 (1\/4), 21 (2\/45), 30-40 (1\/3), 110-140 (1\/4)<\/span><\/p>\n

1<\/span>st<\/span> up (1\/4), 2nd up (4\/73), 3rd up (6\/75), <\/span>4<\/span>th<\/span> up+ (2\/39)<\/span><\/p>\n

Pace\/Handy\/Midfield (12\/119),<\/b> Back (1\/72)<\/span><\/p>\n

Colt (8\/116), Filly (3\/21),<\/b> Gelding (2\/54)<\/span><\/p>\n

Same Jockey As Last Start <\/span>No (4\/90), <\/span>Yes (9\/101)<\/b><\/p>\n

Last Start Favourite No (4\/156), <\/span>Yes (9\/35)<\/b><\/p>\n

Finishing Position Last Start 1<\/b>st<\/b> (7\/41), 2<\/b>nd<\/b> (3\/29), <\/b>3<\/span>rd<\/span> (1\/28), 4<\/span>th<\/span> (1\/26), <\/span>5<\/span>th+<\/span> (1\/67)<\/span><\/p>\n

SP $2.70-$8 (9), $10-$19 (3), $301 (1)<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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PRICE ADVANTAGE HISTORY <\/h2>\n
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Southport Tycoon’s 2024 victory was a tremendous result for Betfair followers, with the $25.01 price a whopping 22% better than the corporate average and 31% better than best tote after commission.<\/p>\n

In 2023, Legarto’s victory at $7.71 was 10.5% better than best tote after commission.<\/p>\n

It was a similar story in 2022 with Hitotsu’s $8.19 BSP victory coming in 8.7% better than best tote after factoring in commission.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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SPEED MAP <\/h2>\n
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Average speed expected here with Stay Focused<\/strong> the likely leader, with Opening Address and Feroce<\/strong> pushing forward from wide gates.<\/span>
\n<\/span>Savaglee and Goldrush Guru<\/strong> should be handy from decent gates.<\/span>
\n<\/span>Sepals, Plymouth, Detroit City, Savour The Dream and Another Prophet<\/strong> midfield. <\/span>
\n<\/span>Red Aces, No Strings Attached and Statuario<\/strong> back of midfield.<\/span>
\n<\/span>Point And Shoot, Angel Capital, Royal Insignia, Henlein and Ndola<\/strong> out the back. <\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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KEY RUNNERS AND COMMENTARY<\/h2>\n
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1. Goldrush Guru\u00a0 – <\/b>VRC Derby winner in the Spring who ran a solid 4th in the CS Hayes leadup when sitting outside the leader on a strong tempo. Can run better with cover here.
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\n<\/b>2. Savaglee\u00a0 – <\/b>Kiwi raider who has won 4 of his past 5 starts in NZ at G1 and G2 level. Can win.
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\n<\/b>3. Feroce\u00a0 – <\/b>Ran 2nd beaten a head in the G1 Caulfield Guineas last prep. Was a solid 3rd first up in the CS Hayes.\u00a0
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\n<\/b>4. Angel Capital\u00a0 – <\/b>Was an impressive winner first up in the Autumn Stakes running the quickest last 600m of the day. Rates highly, though gets back which is usually a negative for this race.\u00a0
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\n<\/b>5. Henlein\u00a0 – <\/b>Ran 2nd in the Spring Champion last prep. Wet track may not have suited first up in the CS Hayes. Gets back.
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\n<\/b>7. Point And Shoot\u00a0 – <\/b>Has run excellent late sectionals in his past two dominant wins at Randwick at Benchmark level. Up in grade and gets well back
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\n<\/b>10. Ndola\u00a0 – <\/b>Settled last and ran home strongly for 2nd in the CS Hayes. Right in it with a repeat of that run, but does get well back.
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\n<\/b>11. Royal Insignia\u00a0 – <\/b>Won 3 in a row and then didn\u2019t handle the wet track last start in the CS Hays. Can bounce back but another that gets well back.
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\n<\/b>12. Sepals\u00a0 – <\/b>Has won 3 in a row including a dominant CS Hayes win last start. Repeat of that would make him hard to beat here. In first prep.
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\n<\/b>13. Savour The Dream\u00a0 –\u00a0 <\/b>Has won past two at Saturday Metro level in QLD. Can measure up here.
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\n<\/b>16. Another Prophet\u00a0 – <\/b>Won the Thousand Guineas last prep. May not have handled the wet track last start. Can bounce back.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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DEAN EVANS’ SELECTIONS<\/h2>\n
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4. Angel Capital
\n1. Goldrush Guru
\n2. Savaglee
\n16. Another Prophet<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n

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BETTING STRATEGIES<\/h2>\n
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Open race. Traditionally this race is won by runners in the front half of the field.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However many of the key chances such as Angel Capital, Point And Shoot, Henlein, Ndola and Royal Insignia all map far back.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Goldrush Guru, Savaglee, Feroce and Sepals map in the front half and look quality chances.<\/span><\/p>\n

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**Dean Evans monitors market fluctuations, track conditions, weather, scratchings, stewards\u2019 notifications, and general news before submitting his betting strategies for Victorian Group 1s. Make sure you\u2019re following Dean Evans on the Betfair App and turn on notifications to get alerted when he shares his strategies\u2014sometimes as close as 30 minutes before a race.**<\/em><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

Betting Strategy<\/p>\n

BACK: 1. Goldrush Guru (WIN) for 0.5 unit<\/p>\n

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Dean Evans<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/a>\n \n

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