Wimbledon 2017 Betting: Women’s Semi Finals

Garbine Muguruza v Magdalena Rybarikova

These two have met four times before with two wins apiece. This is the 10th time Rybarikova has made the main draw at Wimbledon and she’d lost in the opening round in eight of her previous nine attempts. In fact her record in majors is woeful everywhere as she’d won just 17 matches in 35 Grand Slams before this fortnight.

Muguruza’s has impressed on her return to the semi-finals and she’s been installed as the tournament favourite heading into the semis. She’s certainly benefitted from a good draw as Kuznetsova’s game doesn’t really suit grass and Kerber has been in a slump all year (although that was a high quality match), while she now gets a player ranked 87th in the world. However, she’s lost six of her last seven semi-finals, albeit two were retirements, and that includes five defeats out of six when starting as the favourite (one via retirement). Furthermore, five of her last eight completed semi-finals as a favourite have gone to a third set.

Rybarikova has played 19 matches on grass since the French Open and has already knocked out two of the favourites here in Karolina Pliskova and Coco Vandeweghe. She was helped in the last round by her opponent getting just 42% first serves in but has certainly not looked overawed. Furthermore, she beat Muguruza in their last meeting, which came on grass two years ago. With the Spaniard being as capable of first round exits as title-winning performances and the Slovak completely untested at this level this isn’t an easy match to predict but it could lead to some swings and we’ll back this to go the distance.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Three Sets at 2.60


Venus Williams v Johanna Konta

Williams won when these two met in Rome in May but given Konta’s record on clay that result shouldn’t mean too much here. Particularly since the Brit won their three meetings prior to that, including bigger matches at Miami (semi-final 2017), as well as the Stanford final last year. Furthermore, she won their only previous clash at a Grand Slam, at the Australian Open last year.

Williams has benefitted from playing some relatively wild players in the last few rounds as her opponents have struggled to keep their errors down against her extra power. That’s unlikely to be such a factor here against Konta, who has the game to move her about the court, and since 2016 Venus has lost seven of 10 matches against the current top 10 including five in straight sets.

Konta will have a raucous centre court crowd behind her and after coming through a second consecutive high quality three-setter she increasingly looks like she has what it takes to claim the title. This will be her 16th match on grass since the French Open and she’s beaten the top two in the world in that time while she’s provisionally up to fourth in the world herself come Monday. It’s only her second major semi-final but she’s made five finals in the last 12 months and doesn’t look to be fazed under pressure. She’s won six of her last eight matches against the current top 10 (and Venus will return to that list next week) and the two defeats were against Halep on clay and against Serena Williams so this is definitely an easier task and we expect her to be playing in the final on Saturday.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Johanna Konta at 1.90


related articles

Bettor Form: Daily Tennis Selections

Form Labs search their unrivaled tennis database to find relevant matchup information for the professional tennis circuit. They then ...

Read More

Tennis: ELO Modelling

In the previous article, I gave an overview of the different approaches used to model tennis matches. In this ...

Read More

Tennis Modelling: Points Based Models

In the last article, I wrote about Elo Modelling, which was found to be the best-performing published model for ...

Read More