Wimbledon 2017 Betting: Women’s Quarter Finals

Garbine Muguruza v Svetlana Kuznetsova

Muguruza has won the last three meetings between these two and is increasingly looking like the player that reached the final here two years ago and won the French Open in 2016. Her win over Kerber yesterday was a high quality affair and she gets to face another opponent who likes to stand deep behind the baseline. This is Kuznetsova’s best run here for 10 years but she’s never been past the quarters at Wimbledon. Her kick serve doesn’t get up high enough on grass to be as effective as on other surfaces but she’s yet to face an opponent who could take advantage of that as the likes of Makarova and Radwanska are struggling with their own form.

However, nine of Kuznetsova’s last 12 matches as an underdog have gone the distance with two of the other three seeing tie-breaks so she won’t make life easy. Meanwhile, six of Muguruza’s last eight completed matches against the current top 25 have had at least 23 games with five going to a deciding set. Kuznetsova’s game should suit Muguruza but it’s likely to be a tight affair so we’ll back the ‘overs’ and the Spaniard to come through 2-1.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Muguruza 2-1 at 4.3

 BACK – Over 21.5 Games at 1.9

Jelena Ostapenko v Venus Williams

After dispatching the youngest remaining player in the last round Venus takes on the youngest left in the quarter-finals. Ostapenko has improved with each match and now stands a great chance of joining Jennifer Capriati and Venus as the only players in the last 40 years to win a second major straight after her maiden success. However, she plays a similar style to Williams’ last opponent, Ana Konjuh, and the lack of margin for error in her game could be exposed with the greater power of Williams reducing her setup time. Venus has also got better with each match and since 2014 her record here is W13-L3 with those defeats coming against Kvitova, Serena and Kerber. She’s also won her last two Grand Slam quarter-finals and her experience on center court could edge this one.

However, Ostapenko’s attacking nature lends itself to changes of momentum and that has resulted in eight of her last 10 matches going to a third set with all 10 having at least 22 games. Venus has had at least 23 games in four of her last five matches so we expect some tight sets and it could go all the way.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Venus Williams  at 1.78

 BACK – Over 21.5 Games at 1.75

Magdalena Rybarikova v Coco Vandeweghe

Rybarikova has won both her past meetings with Vandeweghe but one of those was six years ago and the other was on clay at the French Open six weeks ago. Vandeweghe reached the semis at the Australian Open and is yet to drop a set this fortnight, while she thrashed Konta in Birmingham. This is the third year running she’s made the second week here while she’s a two-time champion in Den Bosch so this is undoubtedly her favourite surface. However, the same is true of Rybarikova, who has already knocked out the big favourite for the tournament in Karolina Pliskova. That follows on from ITF titles on grass in Surbiton and Ilkley last month and a semi-final run in Nottingham. Nevertheless, this is a first Grand Slam quarter-final for her while its Coco’s third and it’s hard to argue with the American being the shortest favourite of the day.

Rybarikova has started slowly in her previous matches as she’s been a break down in the opening set in three of her four matches. Given her lack of experience at this level we think that might be the case again and she could take a while to get going. Vandeweghe has received first in all four of her matches while Rybarikova has served first in three of her four so 6-4 to Coco looks a great bet as the correct score in the first set – it’s also landed in four of her last seven matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Set 1 Correct Score – Vandeweghe 6-4 at 6.0

Jo Konta v Simona Halep

The bookies are struggling to separate these two with Simona Halep, who will move to the top of the world rankings next Monday if she wins this match, the slight favourite. However, the last time she had that opportunity she suffered a shock defeat in the French Open final. Halep beat Konta comfortably when they met on clay in the Fed Cup in April but Konta won a tight three-setter in March on hard courts while they’ve never met on grass. The surface should give the Brit an edge as she’s now won 12 matches on grass since the French Open and she should be battle hardened after two tight matches in her first four rounds. Halep is yet to drop a set here but her opponents have been relatively lowly ranked and she’s lost all four of her past matches on grass against the current top 10. Five of her last six matches against the current top 10 on all surfaces have gone to a third set with the exception being her Fed Cup win over Konta, who is not at that level on clay, and while Konta should have the edge this will surely be another nail-biter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Konta Win at 2.10

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