Wimbledon 2017 Betting: Men’s Final

Marin Cilic v Roger Federer

Match Odds

 

Much like the women’s final the men’s features one of the all-time greats against a one-off major champion, but this time we have a clear favourite. Cilic beat Federer on his way to the 2014 US Open but that is his only success in seven previous meetings, although he did lead 2-0 when they met in the quarter-final here a year ago.

Cilic undoubtedly has the power to cause Federer problems and his form leading in was far better than any of the Swiss’s opponents up to now. However, the confidence that Fed has built from winning the Australian Open and then Indian Wells and Miami earlier in the year has produced some imperious tennis over the past few weeks, first at Halle and now here at Wimbledon. Heading into the semis he actually had the lowest winning percentage behind his first serve of the four remaining players (although they were all excellent) but his 68% won on second serve was a long way ahead of the rest.

Cilic showed some weakness in his quarter-final with Gilles Muller and then again against Sam Querrey as he made hard work of things courtesy of playing badly on the break points. He’s generally been excellent since stepping onto the grass last month, however he lost the final at Queens when he was the better player (he won eight more points) and he’s looking a little shaky in clutch situations. However, all three of his titles since 2016 have come as an underdog and he is arguably more dangerous with less pressure on him as he’s got a W5-L3 career record in finals against the current top 10. Nevertheless, since 2010 he’s lost 27 of 28 matches when starting as at least a 3/1 underdog. That includes nine Grand Slam defeats of which four were in straight sets, four were 3-1 and one went the distance, while they were all by at least five clear games and eight were by six or more.

Federer’s record in Grand Slam finals is 18-10 but that improves to 18-6 when excluding his matches with Nadal at Roland Garros. In fact other than Nadal and Novak Djokovic the only player to beat Federer in a Grand Slam final is Juan Martin Del Potro and his record excluding the former two greats is a superb 14-1 while when starting as a 1.6 or shorter favourite he’s 15-1 in major finals. Of those 15 wins seven have been 3-0, six 3-1 and two have gone the distance. However, so secure does his game look right now that we can’t see him being pushed to the limit the way Nadal did here in 2007 and Roddick managed in 2009.

 

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Federer -5.5 Games at 2.10


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