We’re delighted to have Terry Leighton on the Betfair Hub as our resident WA Racing analyst, providing his Belmont Tips and Ascot Tips.
Terry, who was the resident tipster for Turf Talk, has years of Perth betting experience. You can expect his expert predictions to be on The Hub every Wednesday & Friday morning.
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While the Eastern Seaboard is blessed with the presence of our #1 hoop, there is an eerie, empty feel to a Pike-free Saturday.
While we can’t settle the debate over one Saturday’s racing, it will be intriguing to not only see how the likes of short-priced favourites; Celebrity Queen, Star Exhibit and Inspirational Girl perform in his absence, but also how the market reacts.
While clearly his booking significantly adds to a runners chance of victory, I suspect the market might overreact late. There could be some good value late shopping on the Exchange, for some nice horses with a jockey downgrade.
The rail is at the 3m pad, with those pesky Easterlies forecast. While they don’t have a great deal of strength behind them, you’d still be well advised to allow for a clear advantage to those on speed runners, especially early on the card.
“This is a very poor maiden”. It feels like I nearly write that exact same quote every week. Well, it’s Groundhog Day.
Very similar to last week’s selection of Eristic, I’m happy to get involved with a horse who should race on speed and has had some genuine excuses at her first two career outings.
Perfect Harmony is from the unfashionable Barry Newnham yard and was reasonably well thought of in the market on debut, when running a credible sixth to the winner of the final race on this card (scroll to race 9), Long Beach. She showed her inexperience in the straight with Kristy Bennett never able to fully ride her out.
Mollie Clark took the reins at her second career outing, when making a mess of the jump before mustering around the field to take up the running. To only be beaten 1.6 lengths was huge considering the rail was colder than your missus after getting home at 3am after a night out with the lads.
Bruce Almighty is $2.60 which really does tell you something about the quality of this race.
If Jade can step this mare out cleanly and lead this race, I’m confident with the Easterly in play she’ll be hard to get past. I’ve marked her $3, but from the unfashionable stable we should always see considerably more.
BACK (WIN) – 3 units to win Perfect Harmony
There is a big chance I’ll be openly weeping after this event when Kelly’s Gem (who I’ve re-mortgaged the house on at her last two) storms past this lot.
From a speed map point of view, I found it impossible to look past Sakarya. Returned to the form yard of David Harrison after a brief spell in Gero and has looked a far more accomplished mare upon her return. She proved a long priced win was no fluke at her most recent outing, when boxing on doggedly in a reasonable quality Saturday class event.
With no noted front runners engaged, this speed map could not look any more suitable. I suspect the plan will be to take this mare to the front from barrier 3 and control proceedings. This race was in danger of deletion when nominations were first called for, so after extended noms, we see a few runners from Esperance and Albany make the journey to town.
Kelly’s Gem will be back last with the 60kg’s and with the Easterly winds in play and a lot of visiting roadblocks in her path, it’ll be awfully difficult to run down an in form on-pace runner.
While the market is collapsing around this mare, I have marked her $2.70 and she’s still trading around the $3 mark. Hopefully there are a few punters trying to recoup their Kelly’s Gem money, pushing her quote out late.
BACK (WIN) – 3 units to win Sakarya
I’ve got a lot to write here (for a change).
The all-conquering Burning Pride is a fascinating horse to dissect statistically. William Pike has ridden her at 10 of her 24 career starts for 6 wins. She has not won on the other 14 occasions. That makes the $2.40 about this mare look thinner than Ally McBeal.
Morning Song is the second horse in the market and had genuine excuses at her most recent outing, when racing on the inferior part of that Pinjarra track. She looks the mapped horse here, but concerningly the bar plates go on, making her a risky betting proposition.
With some question marks hanging over the two fancies in the market, there are three runners I want to get stuck into.
Here Comes Lenni is an out and out stayer. Raced fresh over the 1900m at Narrogin, when giving Burning Pride the dream cart into the race and boxing on for an admirable second. Will derive a tonne of benefit from that outing and this tactic from the Warwick camp of giving this bloke a little freshen up has worked in the past, with second-up success. Look for him to settle midfield and make a move from the 600m mark.
While Here Comes Lenni is a clear on top selection, I want to have something small on both Saxon Saxoff (around the $65 quote) and Blue Tracer (~$31).
Saxon Saxoff is a very particular animal. He needs to find a race he can control the pace, and he needs to be at full tilt from about the halfway point in that race. You want to see him 4 lengths in front on the bend with jockey Ben Paterson, treading a fine line with the whip rules. If he ends up with the weaker brigade of Patchirac (barrier 1), Juicing Carrots (3) and perhaps Prescience (10) in the spots behind him, they could well act as a roadblock for the strong gallopers coming from the rear.
If they are forced to sustain a run around those tiring gallopers, this bloke can be as tough as an $11 steak at your local. Yes, there is every chance he’ll be gone at the 600m, but this is a bloke who does win at big prices when you least expect it. Brock Lewthwaite’s stayers are starting to go OK, and he’s worth something at a big quote. At that price, you don’t need much on.
Blue Tracer is simply a forgotten stayer. All three runs this campaign have been meritorious (his most recent outing was a ‘put a line through me’ job when he nearly went through the running rail on straightening) and he is another out and out stayer. A tick over a year ago ran second to Mississippi Delta with some quality nags behind him. Not impossible at a big quote.
Taking a stand against Burning Pride has opened multiple betting avenues here with Here Comes Lenni ($4.60), Saxon Saxoff ($61) and Blue Tracer ($31) all well above my marked price.
BACK (WIN) – 2.5 units to win Here Comes Lenni
BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win Saxon Saxoff
BACK (WIN) – 1 unit to win Blue Tracer
The lucky last of the day is also our best, with the progressive Long Beach a standout.
These Bob Peters three-year-olds just seem to have a mortgage on these 60+ graduation’s and despite the absence W. Pike, this doesn’t look to be any different.
His first-up victory rated through the roof, with several subsequent winners coming from that event and unlike a lot of the Peters brigade, this bloke does possess some reasonable early speed. With motor coming from the likes of She’s Alight (barrier 4), Akiko (7), Nanga Parbat (10), Lipstick Flickers (11) and Mr Genoa (13), the gaps should open up and CJP should have no problems finding cover forward of midfield.
Mr. Genoa might just about be the best horse in this race, but from barrier 13 with 60.5kg’s after Jade’s claim, he’ll need to be superman. While I am expecting this bloke to put in a fighting effort, characteristic of his trainer after a few coronas, I’m expecting the 54kg’s and the fuel-saving run of Long Beach to tell a story late.
While Mr. Genoa and Lipstick Flickers do tend to attract support, I’m expecting the conditions of this event will make Long Beach the runner the punters want to get out on at around the $3.50 quote. We’ll have to forget ‘Pike in the last’ for a week and instead roll with ‘Peters in the last’. Let’s be honest; it’s usually the same thing.
BACK (WIN) – 5.5 units to win Long Beach
Total Units Staked: 1202.00
Total Units Returned: 1048.96
ROI: -12.73%
Despite the unfavourable ROI, results are measured at the Betfair Starting Price. As any Terry follower will know, these horses are often well found in the market and often start significantly shorter than earlier in the day. If you used Betfair Live on every recommendation, your ROI could improve these results.
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