We’re delighted to have Terry Leighton on the Betfair Hub as our resident WA Racing analyst, providing his Belmont Tips and Ascot Tips.
Terry, who was the resident tipster for Turf Talk, has years of Perth betting experience. You can expect his expert predictions to be on The Hub every Wednesday & Friday morning.
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A much-anticipated card for the racing nuffies out there with some cracking match races and the return of a few smarties.
With the markets having such a singular focus around those top-liners, and rightly so, the key for the day is the decision making processes in what the right price is (or how many beers you’ve needed to have) to hop into some of these shorties.
It would be remiss of me not to have a gander at the salivating clashes between Laverrod and Kay Cee in the Raconteur and then Showmanship and Resortman later in the program. Neither market has a great deal of juice in it currently, but we will have a look at the race, my book and then monitor the Exchange to see what type of betting opportunities present late. The perfect card to utilise the best tool at our disposal.
The weather gods were clearly aware of the bonanza of battles upcoming and have given us perfect racing conditions, with a 25-degree day and only some very light easterlies. With the rail at the 8m pad for the first time this season and a track playing in a manner we can thus far trust, there is no reason to consider a bias. But that does not mean there won’t be one. Duck and weave accordingly.
On a day littered with class and quality, it’s the lowly maiden which I head toward for my best bet on the card. I’m a man of simple tastes.
I was pretty keen on Mr Delegator when he made his debut back in March and was somewhat disappointed at the time that he couldn’t reel in the $30 pop, Cliffs Of Comfort. As it turns out, I shouldn’t have been too disappointed. That fellow went on to easily account for Laverrod (favourite for the Raconteur later in the program) before doing the same to the progressive River Beau.
That maiden only gets better the further you go back. The very smart cerise and white runner, Giant Leap was in third, with Karijini Aurora back in fourth. She went on to win her next three and lines up alongside Laverrod in the listed Raconteur Stakes later on the day. Very simply, the form-lines are just in a completely different ball-park to the rest of these and a repeat of that run wins this.
The speed map looks ideal with Peter Knuckey having options from the good draw (barrier 3). I can see no reason why they wouldn’t simply jump and run them along here, but if he is taken on from the likes of Rubychino (7) or Vrum (8, though the blinkers have been removed and he was ridden quietly in a recent trial, leading me to believe we’ll probably see the same tactics here), he can park. I do expect he will lead them from start to finish, however.
I have absolutely no lack of confidence in backing the Tiarnna Robertson yard first-up without a trial. We’ve seen a slew of recent runners (Altani, Fabergino, False Statement) return from a break and easily account for their opposition, in what is quickly becoming one of the states more imposing smaller yards.
I am hoping there is some support for a few of the other backable runners in this race, to give our price a bit of a face lift. Rapid Transit wins a race very shortly after a good first-up effort behind a smart one. Alien From Mars continues to hit the line well and should be better at the 1200m.
Western Rhythm was a smooth moving trialler for William Pike, but the outside gate makes it awfully hard to map a victory on debut, while Rubychino in my mind may be the biggest danger. A pair of seconds in Albany don’t necessarily enthuse, though the form from those two maidens has stacked up.
More importantly, it’s worth noting that the stable had two maiden runners midweek for a 1st and a 2nd. I dare say, this Maschino mare might have been the pick of that yard’s non-winners as she’s been held over for the weekend maiden. Hard to knock a form stable/jockey.
While this is a nice maiden, I am very much of the opinion that Mr Delegator is simply better than these. $2.10 or so is available at the time of writing, and while I dream of something with a touch more meat on it closer to jump, anything north of (or even nearing) even money is good shopping. I’ve marked him $1.75.
BACK (WIN) – 6 units to win Mr Delegator
Laverrod v Kay Cee. The twitter-sphere has already gone into a semi-meltdown about this clash, with opinions looking well and truly divided between two very sharp three-year-olds.
The 2019 Rising Star, Kay Cee will be hoping that her career takes a different trajectory to that of fellow Rising Star winner Rhys Palmer, with her being no shoo-in here.
While opinions will be well and truly divided on the outcome of this race, there will also be a plethora of different speed maps mooted. Karijini Aurora (barrier 2) is an obvious chance of taking up the running, though I do think a couple of the other camps who have their eyes on the ball, will see the lack of natural tempo in this event and may look to roll the dice and head forward. Platinum Bullet (4) and the big fella Power Of St George (7) are two who I would not be shocked to see some aggression from.
With the latter, I actually think it could be beneficial to his racing future. This big son of Patronize takes a while to work through his gears, so rolling along in front at a genuine tempo, may be beneficial for him. He doesn’t have a huge amount of early speed, so a race like this, where he can muster his way to the top around a slack speed could be a blessing in disguise. From barrier 7, he either attempts to go forward and lead, or ends up last alongside Kay Cee and attempts to outsprint that filly. I’d be rolling the dice.
If that speed doesn’t eventuate, Laverrod (3) could well end up facing the breeze outside of Karijini Aurora, but it would be an extremely leisurely pace. I’m near certain something will roll forward, providing Carbery with cover just behind the speed. Kay Cee (6) will be in the last pair in the run.
I am fairly confident that Laverrod will get the job done. Continuity in a campaign is huge and Laverrod has been building solidly for the past couple of months. He dispelled any concerns about running out a strong 1400m (Festival Miss, who ran second, franked that form further a week ago) at his most recent outing, suggesting if anything he will only get better the further he goes.
Carbery will know he has the fitter and more forward horse and will make sure he’s off and gone by the time Kay Cee has to work through her gears. While I am expecting the Kingston Town winner to hit the line with gusto, I think the bird may have already flown.
I’ve marked the big Toronado gelding $1.85, with Kay Cee at $3.45. There will no doubt be some support around for the group one winning filly, meaning we can hopefully shop somewhere in the low 2’s closer to jump.
BACK (WIN) – 4 units to win Laverrod
Showmanship v Resortman.
The most anticipated match-up since the Carey and Jakovich battles of the ’90s.
I’ll pre-fix this little blurb, with the fact that I am fence bound. With both runners around the ~$2.15 mark, there is very little juice in this market, but there are some major bragging rights on the lines.
Team Resortman is suggesting their fledging star will roll forward, dominate the contest from the fence and be too strong.
Team Showmanship will be pointing to a highly suitable map, which should allow them to be within touching distance of this new kid on the block on straightening (who has actually had the same amount of starts, the hype is just a bit fresher) and will undoubtedly run slicker final splits with the softer run.
The speed map funnily enough, does look perfect for both. There are three nags underneath Resortman who could try to hold the top from him. Bruce Almighty (barrier 1) was a strong winner last time out when grabbing the back of Zephyr Queen. I can’t imagine there will be any other thought process than to tag the rear end of a very smart one. Could be his ticket to sneaking into third.
Flying Roar (7) will be instructed to be ridden aggressively but has really lacked that gate speed in recent times, while Salamaat (6) has shown improved barrier manners under the tutelage of Tiarnna Robertson. Long story short, if Resortman can cross and lead Fuhrer with the ease he did a fortnight ago, then I suspect the top will be his for the taking if Kyra Yuill so desires.
Showmanswept’s (sorry Darren), short career has been highlighted by fast-finishing efforts, but he has shown the ability to leave the gates cleanly and I do believe he can take up a prominent position in the run. William Pike will be fully aware he can’t let the smart Helmet gelding sneak away, or he’ll be cooked.
The key for Showmanship will be getting the right cart, timing the right run and then being able to race truly enough to gun down the horse with the favours out in front. The reason I say, race truly enough, is he did lay out quite badly his first up. It’s a rarity you’ll see Pike pull the stick on one of his Ferraris that early in the straight. The lugging bit and winkers go on, in an attempt to have him racing a little truer. He can’t be doing things wrong if he wants to win this.
While I am heavily fence bound, I do have the slightest of leans to the cerise and white. We see these up and coming Bob Peters runners improve ten-fold, second up in their campaigns and to be getting in only a kilo above the minimum from a good draw is extremely hard to resist.
I’ve marked Showmanship $2.15 and Resortman $2.40 (around 88% of the market, if you were backing anything else – do it late, they’ll all be cricket score odds). At this stage, I’ll be staying out, but I’ll have no reservations about backing either of the pair if they drift to a mark 15-20% above my marked quote.
Monitor Betfair late using the instructions given above.
Total Units Staked: 1574.25
Total Units Returned: 1447.37
ROI: -8.06%
Despite the unfavourable ROI, results are measured at the Betfair Starting Price. As any Terry follower will know, these horses are often well found in the market and often start significantly shorter than earlier in the day. If you used Betfair Live on every recommendation, your ROI could improve these results.
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