WA Derby Final Preview, Friday 15th April 2016

Track:  Gloucester Park

Length of Home Straight: 143m

Circumference: 804.50m

There is NOT a sprint lane.

R7 Group 1 WA Derby Final – 2536m Mobile Start

Past Winners

2015 – Beaudiene Boaz

2014 – Three Blind Mice

2013 – Alta Christiano

2012 –  Im Victorious

2011 – Seel N Print

Speed Map

Gloucester Park is always challenging – a small track, no sprint lane means it can be “on for young and old” so to speak. Lets Chase The Dream will look to lead – showed good gate speed in New Zealand. Chicago Bull will get run of the race, getting a nice trail to replicate its effort last week. The Art Form may also look for the early lead – whether it hands up to the favourite will be up to Mark Reed.

Major Players

1. Ideal Tyson: The winner of 9 of 17 starts – he crossed the Nullabor for an attempt at the Victorian Derby but could only manage a sixth in its heat. Following that effort he went north to win a race at Menangle but again could only manage an 8th in a heat of the NSW Derby. Looks more suited back at home and is drawn well – ran well placing 3rd in the Derby Prelude last week. Each way chance from a great draw.

4. The Art Form: Smart kiwi who beat Lets Chase The Dream at Alexandra Park in December. Two runs in the West have resulted in a 5th and a 4th to Chicago Bull. I think he will need to get cover to win here making him a knockout chance at best.

5. Mach Time: Another ex-kiwi who won 2 in a row in easier company in New Zealand before coming to Western Australia where he won his debut race at Bunbury as a $1.20 favourite. At his next start ran second to Lets Chase the Dream when forced to go 3 wide without a trail. Gary Hall’s second stringer but that has resulted in a victory on multiple occasions in feature races.

6. Chicago Bull: Has won 8 of 15 starts including his last five! Gary Hall Jnr gave him the perfect run behind Cant Refuse in the one-one in the Prelude before unleashing a powerful sprint in the home straight, defeating his rivals in a matter of strides. He will need to get a similar trail again here I would think but winning form is good form and he’s capable of making it six straight.

7. Lets Chase The Dream: Very smart kiwi who kept running into Lazarus in New Zealand. The winner of 9 from 18 starts and trained by the All Star Stable of Mark Purdon. He’s coming off a 2nd to Lazarus in the Northern Derby in New Zealand, followed by a huge run in the Prelude and was stuck three back on the fence until the 600m when Chris Lewis extricated him from the fence to win. I expect him to be driven more aggressively here making him very hard to beat.

10. Cant Refuse: Came to Australia as a relatively “unknown”, but definitely isn’t one now. Ran a credible 4th in the VIC Derby final behind Lazarus – followed by a 3rd in the NSW Derby heat when only beaten 2.1 meters behind Our Waikiki Beach in the NSW Derby Final after racing outside the leader. His two runs here in the W.A have been good – the latest when forced to ‘the chair’ over the 2500m and beaten in the final few strides by Chicago Bull. He’s a strong each-way chance with any luck from the awkward inside second row draw.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Lets Chase The Dream (7) > $1.50 for 3.5 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Cant Refuse (10) >$7.00 for 0.5 units

race assessment