US PGA Championship: Half-Time Analysis 2018

Venue Name – Bellerive Country Club, Missouri, St Louis, Aug 9-12, 2018

Weather Report

Saturday – Sunny, 33 Degrees C, Humidity 46%, Wind 8-13km/h, Precipitation 10%

Sunday –  Mostly Sunny, 33 Degrees C, Humidity 47%, Wind 11-14km/h, Precipitation 10%

Leaderboard Day 1

1st G Woodland -6
2nd R Fowler -5
T3 B Stone -4
T3 Z Johnson -4
T5 A Cook -3
T5 I Poulter -3
T5 P Perez -3
T5 J Day -3
T5 B Gay -3
T5 S Cink -3
T5 0 Schniederjans -3
T5 D Johnson -3
T5 K Kisner -3
T5 J Rose -3
T5 T Pieters -3

Leaderboard Day 2

1st G Woodland -10
2nd K Kisner -9
3rd B Koepka -8
T4 D Johnson -7
T4 C Schwartzel -7
T4 T Pieters -7
T4 R Fowler -7

Course Details and Round by Round Summary

Round 1 Summary

Justin Rose’s back injury looks fine this week, and after a slow start Justin played very solid for the remainder of the round, he looks in a strong position to continue his incredibly consistent form. Dustin Johnson is also in the same boat after a sloid 3 under par, despite dropping a couple of shots late. Jordan Spieth however looked awful at times, struggling off the tee, missing short putts, acting emotional on the range, and as predicted in the pre-tournament article should be well down the list in price. Jordan is having an awful year with the putter and is outside the top 150 in strokes gained putting. Until Jordan can show a turnaround in form, I am happy to keep opposing him.

Jason Day made a solid start to the PGA Championship, an event he has been performing very well in for several years now. Rickie Fowler also made a lovely start to the Championship with a solid 5 under par round, however for my liking he just doesn’t win enough for the amount of times he gets himself into contention. Of my top 5 pre-tournament rankings, its great to see 4 of these players all inside the top 5 after Day 1 (Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose).

Round 2 Summary

The course as expected continues to play soft and the “cut” late on Day 2 looks to be even par, which indicates a low scoring Championship. Gary Woodland backed up his fine performance Day 1 with another solid round of 4 under par, while world number 1 Dustin Johnson and world number 4 Brooks Koepka are both well in contention, only a few shots back. Jason Day hands came off his club a few times today, as it did late last week, which is a little concerning.

In-play betting for Round 3 & Round 4 –

Option 1 . The course is playing very soft and I cannot see it firming up much. This PGA Championship should continue to be conducive to low scoring. As mentioned in previous articles, players on the course are usually favored than those in the clubhouse. Naturally you must access the weather and how the course is playing, but like the trade I did on Rickie Fowler today, these types of trades should serve us well for the remainder of the tournament. Rickie Fowler finished his round early, as Rickie had a morning tee time Day 1, this means that Rickie will play in the afternoon on Day 2. Note – What this means is that the players that played in the afternoon Day 1 will have a morning tee-time Day 2 and they will play two rounds before Rickie plays his afternoon round. After accessing that many players were shooting under par rounds on a condensed leaderboard provides a perfect opportunity to lay Rickie Fowler when he completed his first round, with the intention to “re-back” Rickie before he commences his Day 2 round. Rickie was $6.60 to “lay” after completing his round and after afternoon play was completed Rickie was already out to $8.20, it will be interesting to see what price he will be when tees off tomorrow afternoon, however right now I am very happy with my trade position.

Option 2.  Below is a list of the hole by hole scoring averages, from hardest to easiest. You can see that holes 6,4,10,15,16 and 5 are all playing the hardest. From a trading perspective, I like to group some these holes together, meaning that I can tell that when players arrive at the 4th tee they are about to commence a difficult stretch of holes until the complete the 6th hole and the “law of averages” tells me that I’m a strong chance to profit using a trading strategy. Since the holes are averaging well over par for this stretch of holes, I will place a “lay” bet a player on the 4th tee and “re-back” that player after they have completed the 6th hole. This can also be done on the 15th and 16th hole and the 10th hole will be the only hole that will stand alone for this strategy. These are 3 sections of the course for trades that should serve you well during the championship.

Pre – Tournament Bets

Of the pre-tournament bets

  1. Jason Day and John Rahm looks like they will have a weekend shoot-out. I still think Jason Day can have his measure on the weekend though.
  2. Rickie Fowler is in a strong position to take care of Tommy Fleetwood
  3. Patrick Reed was disappointing missing the cut. Lost to Xander Schauffele
  4. Justin Thomas and Tiger Woods will have a good battle on the weekend
  5. Brooks Koepka is in a strong position to take care of Jordan Spieth
  6. I am still confident about “laying” John Rahm for top 10

I am still confident about Jason Day for top 20 finish

Betting Strategy

Below are some weekend bets to consider, you may also want to read the in-play betting notes as well

Back – Brooks Koepka will be full of confidence in this major after his U.S Open win, he should easily finish top 10.

If you can get $1.55 – 3 units Top 10

Back – Gary Woodland would need to check himself into hospital if he doesn’t finish Top 10 from here

If you get $1.70 – 2 units Top 10

Back – I would expect on form Justin Rose to work his way back into a top 10 position.

If you can get $2.80 – 1 unit Top 10

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