The US Election odds can be used as a strong guide of who will be the next President.
With $1,300,000,000 traded already, it is arguably the biggest betting market of all time. It’s certainly the biggest betting market in the history of the Betfair Exchange.
Here are the exact US Election odds, in real time:
Back, Lay and Trade on the world’s biggest betting market. Use the Betfair Exchange.
There have been plenty of fluctuations in the US Election odds during an insane 2020. As Covid-19 was starting to spread aggresively through the United States, Joe Biden was trading at a high of $36 in February.
Since becoming the presumed Democratic nominee in early March, Biden no longer traded above $4.00.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, was a dominant favourite in February. Trading at $1.65, before drifting as 2020 took hold. Covid-19, Black Lives Matters, and other domestic challenges, pushed the President out to underdog status from June.
More recently, Trump has floated around $3 and is expected to start at those odds, or longer, before the votes are counted.
The most popular political prediction website in the US is FiveThirtyEight.
They have a Model, that’s updated daily, which gives Joe Biden an 89% chance of winning the Election.
That converts to odds of $1.12.
Our favourite resource has been the host of articles we’ve read from full time political gambler, Paul Krishnamurty.
Long ago, when Biden’s odds were larger, he recommended Backing Biden to win the Election, and backing Donald Trump to win Florida. It was effectively a hedging strategy, where both options can still win.
Today, we got this final quote from him:
Biden at $1.50 is a historic opportunity.
He’s also great value in all six of the electoral college handicap markets.
These targets are much better value than individual states, because they have multiple paths to win and allow for the odd reversal. Win Florida or Texas, and I expect Biden will land all six, up to the -140.5 band.
Paul thinks that Biden will comprehensively win.
Tavis Rendell, our other expert, gives Trump more hope than many full time political traders. However, Biden is still the value at the current odds.
Joe Biden provides a historic betting opportunity.
The polling data and prediction models make him a 9 in 10 chance of winning, yet the betting odds say he is two in three.
The political experts believe the market is held up by recreational money and Trump’s previous win.
But 2020 looks even harder than 2016. You can see that in the polls and the swing state graphs.
Biden just has too many states within reach and looks tremendous value in the current market.
BACK — Joe Biden at $1.50
Electoral College Vote Handicap -140.5
BACK — Joe Biden -140.5 at $2.82
Pennsylvania
BACK — Democrats at $1.53
Alaska
BACK — Democrats at $9.40
Minnesota
BACK — Republicans at $4.80
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