The Betfair Insider: Flemington & Rosehill Saturday 12 September Review

Posted: September 14, 2015 at 11:52 am

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Review: Flemington, Saturday 12 September 2015

R4 Danehill Stakes 1200m G2 3yo SWP

Kinglike defied the profile to win here with connections bullish post-race about the Colts ability, be careful reading into the hype as plenty of that talk is either ‘stallion marketing’ or Glen Boss looking to secure the ride going forward.

We identified Kinglike as a major player in the preview based off his first start defeat to Bassett who went on to be very unlucky in the JJ Atkins G1 Doomben at his second ever start.

Given the stable wrap, work at home and strong trial only a few punters were aware of the colt’s ability accounting for only 2.3% of volume traded on the race. Drifting heavily from $10.50 to Betfair SP of $19.

Our suggested back bet Ready For Victory accounted for 60% of volume traded pre play. Reaching a high of $4.30 starting at $3.25. His racing pattern has now cost him two victory’s this preparation and lacked the explosive turn of foot from his first up performance in the Vain Stakes. There’s a chance the colt is already looking for the mile.


Betfair Data

Pre Play

Kinglike

Maximum Price: $21

Minimum Price: $10.50

Betfair SP: $19

% of volume traded on winner: 2.3%

The Others

SUPERTAB: 13.50

UNITAB: 12.80

NSW TAB: 12.20

Best Corporate SP: 19

 

In Play

Kinglike

Maximum Price: $48.00

Minimum Price: $1.01

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Raphael’s Cat $1.50

3rd – Ready For Victory $3.15


R7 Makybe Diva Stakes 1600m G1 WFA

Fawkner reminded us of his class becoming the first horse to win the race 1st up since Littorio in 2011. A good training performance from Team Williams, matched only by a 10/10 Damien Oliver ride. We over looked Fawkner as a major player doubting his race fitness, map position and price within the market. He’s now Cox plate favourite!

Our suggested back bet each way Rising Romance unlucky in the home straight failing to get clear running. Her BSP of $18 staggering, as was her place SP of $4.27. She’s flying and will drop 4kgs from Weight-For-Age here to handicap conditions in the Caulfield Cup making her very hard to beat.

Alpine Eagle has improved dramatically at all of his 8 race career starts. He was given little hope from a wide alley and loomed up like he would run past them but gave out in condition.

Mongolian Khan was terrific first up for a horse targeted towards the Melbourne Cup. He is ballot exempt for the Cox Plate so keep him very safe if uses that option as his lead up run.

Volkstok’n’barrel beaten 3.85 lengths to finish last,  vetted post-race with no abnormality, he’s still a few runs away from his peak but will need to improve remarkably next start to be a betting proposition going forward.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

Fawkner

Maximum Price: $6.83

Minimum Price: $4.50

Betfair SP: $5.90

% of volume traded on winner: 28%

The Others

SUPERTAB: 5.00

UNITAB: 5.20

NSW TAB: 5.4

Best Corporate SP: 7.00

 

In Play

Fawkner

Maximum Price: $20.00

Minimum Price: $1.01

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Rising Romance $15.00

3rd – Entirely Platinum $12.00


Review: Rosehill, Saturday 12 September 2015

R6 Golden Rose Stakes G1 1400m 3yo SW

Our suggested bet Exosphere was the profile standout pre-race and delivered in devastating fashion. He looks very hard to beat in Guineas Prelude and then a decision will be made to race onto the Caulfield Guineas or freshen up into the Coolmore Stud Stakes.

Press Statement had a day to forget, Tye Angland may have been better off to cross and hold the fence but it’s easy to say when you’re not in the pilot’s seat. He still hit the line strongly so his claims for the Caulfield Guineas have taken no harm for mine. Is he the Cox Plate 3yo??

I’d still prefer to be on Exosphere over Kinglike should they meet in the Coolmore Stud Stakes later in the carnival. I’m reluctant to bet into the Caulfield Guineas markets at this stage until more cards are on the table.

 

Betfair Data

Pre Play

Exosphere

Maximum Price: $4.60

Minimum Price: $3.04

Betfair SP: $3.20

% of volume traded on winner: 44%

The Others

SUPERTAB: 2.90

UNITAB: 3.20

NSW TAB: 3.00

Best Corporate SP: 3.20

 

In Play

Exosphere

Maximum Price: $3.55

Minimum Price: 1.01

 

In Play Placing’s Minimum Price

2nd – Speak Fondly $2.00

3rd – Sebring Sun $10.00

 

Follow @Betfair_Aus to see more analysis this week when I preview:

Caulfield – TBA

Randwick – George Main Stakes

 

*All prices published include commission