NFL Week 14: Monday Night Football – New England @ Baltimore

Posted: December 12, 2016 at 4:56 pm
Champion_Bets

Baltimore 44.5 @ New England -7

Tuesday December 13, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Baltimore (7-5)

Baltimore is below average on offense averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.9yps against 6.6yps and 5.1yppl against 5.6yppl. The defence is outstanding giving up just 3.4ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.7yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.6yppl.

New England (10-2)

New England averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.4yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. The defence is allowing just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr but 6.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Despite the defence being below average from the line of scrimmage, they allow just 17 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game.

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • Baltimore G Alex Lewis is doubtful.
  • The Patriots will be without WR Danny Amendola and TE Rob Gronkowski is on IR. TE Martellus Bennett is questionable and banged up. QB Tom Brady is playing on a bad knee.

The Verdict

My numbers favour New England by 5.5 points and project about 41 points. As long as they are road dogs of less than eight points the Ravens qualify in a negative road situation based on their blowout win last week. That situation is 54-24-4 and plays against the Ravens in this game. The same situation played against the Raiders on Thursday night. How good are the Ravens? We don’t know for sure but we do know they are 0-3 ats on the road this year as a road underdog. They seem to be getting healthy and have always had a knack for playing the Patriots tough, having only lost to New England by more than six points once since 2007. This isn’t the same famous defence the Ravens have faced the Pats with before but it’s still a very good defence. What has changed is Baltimore doesn’t attack with the same type of ground game it has had in the past. Since the beginning of last year New England is 9-3-3 ats as a home favourite so they remain very tough at home.

How good is New England? Here’s what we know. Since Tom Brady came back they haven’t beaten a team above .500. They did defeat Pittsburgh but that was without Roethlisberger. Their last three wins have come against lowly San Francisco, the Jets and the Rams. Their defence has allowed more than 17 points only four times with two of those games allowing teams to score in garbage time. Not sure if the Baltimore offense is good enough to take advantage of the New England defence. As good as the Baltimore defence appears to be they have allowed 20 or more points on the road in four of their five road games with the only game being held below that against lowly Jacksonville, who scored 17 points against them. Lowly Cleveland scored 20 so every other team has scored at least 24 points. Their toughest test this year was on the road against Dallas. They played well in that game but lost 27-17. This should be a good game and I’m reluctant to take NE only because a physical Baltimore defence could stifle the New England offense a little because of the injuries on the Patriots offense. The under is probably the better play in this game. New England is running the ball more than they have since 2010, leading towards a lower scoring game as well.

Forecast

New England 24 Baltimore 17

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