AFL Round 22: Market Movers Providing Value

Posted: August 29, 2015

AFL Betting: Round 21 Preview

 

There’s two games that stand out this weekend as we approach finals football. Both have had some serious movements in the match odds and now present value for punters.

 

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

North Melbourne are in red hot form and have a solid record over the Bulldogs. But this is a new Bulldog outfit they come up against this weekend who are full of confidence and playing well above what was expected in 2015.

Both have performed at a similar level this year yet North head into the match firm favourites – currently at the $1.70 mark.

North Melbourne Price Movements

North Price Movements

My initial thoughts on the current prices is that the recent form of North has punters confident they have switched into their best footy at the perfect time. I’m a strong believer in looking further back rather than just recent form.

2015 statistics to note:

  • Points per game rank – North ranked 4th v Bulldogs 5th
  • Etihad Stadium – North have won 4/5 of their last 5 v Bulldogs 5/5
  • Hitouts per game – North ranked 4th v Bulldogs 14th
  • Average contested possessions – North 135.4 v Bulldogs 139.6
  • Average clearances – even
  • Average effective disposals – even

These teams are closer than the market currently suggest. I can’t split these two sides based on this year’s form and putting the firm North price down to an overreaction to last week’s performances. This is going to be a tight contest and the Doggies will need to dig in as they have done throughout the year if they are going to come close. All the value sits with the Bulldogs currently in the match odds.

Recommended Bet

Back Western Bulldogs $2.44

 

Adelaide v West Coast Eagles

Adelaide have been on the move over the last 24hrs and now settling into $2.16 for the big Sunday clash at Adelaide Oval. Similar to the Doggies v North, these two sides are in good form and both preparing for finals football. This is a must win for Adelaide and for West Coast another win would add to their outstanding form leading into finals – they don’t want to stop this momentum.

Adelaide Crows Price Movements

Adelaide Price Movements

2015 statistics to note:

  • Points per game rank – Adelaide 3rd v West Coast 2nd
  • Adelaide Oval – Adelaide 4/5 of their last 5 v West Coast 2/2
  • Average Hitouts per game – Adelaide 43.0 v West Coast 52.4
  • Average contested possessions – Adelaide 144.2 v West Coast 140.8
  • Average clearances – Adelaide 42.3 v West Coast 40.3
  • Effective disposals – Adelaide 253.5 v West Coast 277.8

The recent movements in the market have made West Coast an extra special proposition. They have drifted to $1.85 offering punters plenty of value in the match odds. I’ll be backing them in to win.

Recommended Bet

Back West Coast – $1.85