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Newmarket - Saturday

We’re onto the final day of the Newmarket July Festival which is highlighted by the G1 July Cup, one of the bigger feature sprints in Europe due to it being open to geldings.

At the time of writing 19 acceptors are in the field in what looks an open contest, sure to have one or two hard luck stories.

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I was keen on RIKNNAH at Royal Ascot before she was scratched due to the weather. She was then placed smartly to get the hat trick of wins together and now looks well-placed with a light weight and wide draw. James Doyle has been riding well this week with the exception of Global Storm and I expect her to be fighting out the finish.

SAMOOT was crunched in the Sandringham and ran superbly, just bumping into a total mudlark but accounting for the remainder of the field. She was ridden as if she was the best horse in the field that day and I imagine the stable regard her as a group horse. I think 1400m suits her better than the mile at this point too.

SHE DO managed 4th of 21 in the Sandringham but was 9L behind Samoot, I don’t see where the improvement will come to beat her but she’s potentially much better on dry ground.

KINGMANIA has been beating up the little kids in class 4 and 5 races and needs a big step forward to take this.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Samoot for 2.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Riknnah for 1.5 units

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ROYAL FLEET got better the longer the race went at Yarmouth and quickened smartly to put the race to bed. He’s getting weight off two smart 2yo group performers in QAADER and LATEST GENERATION and in time he should tackle 2000m. For just his third start this looks like another winnable assignment though the price is a touch short for my liking. $3 is a backable price though.

KAHEALL benefited from some Marquand magic last time out after the gelding op, and that was the difference for mine. He’s had his last three starts – all wins – on synthetic and now tackles turf for the first time since his debut where he ran 3rd on soft ground. It’s possible he could continue the winning thread but this is a far tougher task.

LATEST GENERATION was in some good races behind One Ruler as a 2yo and hasn’t quite made the step at 3yo yet. He didn’t see out the 2000m behind Hurricane Lane despite being a Frankel, and then failed to put away a weak handicap against the older horses so maybe he has found his level as Royal Hunt Cup type handicapper.

QAADER was good behind Perotto in the Britannia Stakes finishing 7th of 29 and drawn the wrong side of the track. He didn’t exactly set the world alight when 4th at this meeting last year, comfortably held by Tactical. Personally I think he’s suspect at 1600m giving the field 2kg but would be a bet at 1400m.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Royal Fleet for 4 units

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It looked like Charlie Appleby unleashed one at Sandown with NATIVE TRAIL romping to a 4L win on debut under minimal urgings from William Buick. He was smashed in betting that day and was physically a better type by some way, and I expect a similar type scenario here where he has to account for one with Sweeping form in DHABAB, who was unlucky at Royal Ascot.

He’s the horse in everyone’s Blackbooks and that’s why we’re getting something of a price for Native Trail who has already answered the 1400m question, DHABAB hasn’t. I expect the two to jump the same price.

PRIVATE SIGNAL and AUSTRIAN THEORY are set for a rematch from their Doncaster maiden when the latter narrowly got the better of the former. Intriguingly, Stormy Ocean ran well behind the stablemate yesterday to give a form boost to Private Signal’s maiden win at Leicester, though I’m expecting something similar to yesterday with Appleby taking the prize with the stable #1

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Native Trail for 4 units

BACK (WIN) — Private Signal for 1 unit

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The big one sees a cracking field take their places in the lineup, mostly seeking redemption from Royal Ascot save for the defending champ Oxted who announced himself here last year.

Many thought ROHAAN was hard done by in the Commonwealth Cup as he beat DRAGON SYMBOL who was first past the post before losing to Campanelle in the Stewards’ room, as he’s been gelding and was ineligible from contesting the race. A lot of punters were queuing up to back him for this in futures markets will feel aggrieved as his price is now longer on raceday than he was in futures markets. Rohaan has continued to improve all throughout this prep coming from BM60 grade all the way to G1 level, though his run against CREATIVE FORCE catches my eye.

The godolphin gelding shredded him to the tune of 5L, and hasn’t looked like getting beat this prep. He sprouted wings to collar the stablemate at Royal Ascot from a seemingly impossible position and his ability to lead if required makes him a bombproof conveyance for a race like this where you need luck, or to make your own. He’s a big, big chance here.

SUPREMACY is a one trick pony who has benefited from a bias in each win of his career thus far. He got no bias to aide him on his seasonal reappearance and was made to look something of a fraud when finishing last and finding all of nothing under pressure. The one key thing in his favour here is he’s drawn 19 and may benefit from hugging the rail for the entire race (again) and if that is the case and the rail is hot, he’s a potential bet.

STARMAN is the other horse I am most keen on here, after Ed Walker pulled him out of Ascot. I think the stable are extremely bullish about his chances or they may have kept him in and “hoped” he’d get a G1. It seems to me like they expect him to take this and that’s why he’s been saved for it, with better ground to suit him. Tom Marquand has been trusted to deliver, and gate 4 is perfect for him in a race like this. Dry ground a massive boost to his chances too, as softish tracks have blunted his speed.

EXTRAVAGANT KID back up to 1200m is good and he’ll surely run better than his price. He wasn’t all that far behind Oxted who benefited from a suicidal gallop in the King’s Stand as well as bashed Extravagant Kid out of the way with a large bump.

It’s worth checking betting about OXTED again as he was smashed with money from $10-$5 in the King’s Stand.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Creative Force for 2.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Starman for 2.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Supremacy for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Extravagant for 0.5 units


Total Units Staked: 766.00

Total Units Returned: 766.02

ROI: 0.00%


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