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UK RACING TIPS | NEWMARKET | 1 MAY 2022
Track Conditions: Good to firm (watered)
Yesterday saw COROEBUS run out an impressive winner of the 2000 Guineas with a generous “without favourite” price of 4.4. There are plenty of horses to follow out of the race, especially the first 6 home.
John Gosden has gone from having the feature race in the bag to no runners at all, so Frankie lends himself to Aidan O’Brien’s cause once more.
I’m not sure they’re going to go all that hard in the 1000 Guineas and that goes against the O’Brien horses who want a brutal gallop set.
BEST BACK OF THE DAY: RACE R4 | #10 Ebaiyra
I’m confident EBAIYRA can bring her solid global form from Hong Kong, Saudi and Fran
Race 1 | UK Racing | Key Runners
6. MIAMI GIRL
1. BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE
No bet. 2yo debut maidens not my game.
Race 2 | UK Racing | Key Runners
5. SIR RUMI
4. GOLDEN FLAME
SIR RUMI always struck me as a dry track 3200m horse so this is definitely in his sweet spot. Jockey is close to most-improved in the last 12 months.
REVOLVER improved massively through the grades last season as has found his level now. Didn’t handle the Doncaster cup.
GOLDEN FLAME will give them something to chase, and RED VERDON is on the two-day back up from Friday
BACK (WIN) – SIR RUMI for 2 units
BACK (WIN) – Revolver for 2 units
Race 3 | UK Racing | Key Runners & Expert Tips
2. CET HORIZON
7. WITH THE MOONLIGHT
CRENELLE & PERIPATETIC beat the same horse by the same margin so they would appear to be on similar terms but Gosden and Dettori have a phenomenal strike rate in these fillies races. However, my eye is drawn to CET HORIZON who beat Voodoo Queen (horse who won on Friday entered in oaks) so she gets my vote as having the stronger form. WITH THE MOONLIGHT appears unders purely due to stable form.
BACK (WIN) – CET HORIZON for 1.5 units
Race 4 | UK Racing | Key Runners & Expert Tips
7. VILLE DE GRACE
5. LILAC ROAD
EBAIYRA is much better than these but she would fare better with some cut in the ground. She is multiple G1 placed and finished behind some stars in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia. Intriguing bit of aggressive placement from connections.
VILLE DE GRACE needs to improve more but should have DREAMLOPER and LILAC ROAD covered.
BACK (WIN) – EBAIYRA for 3 units
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Race 5 | UK Racing | Key Runners
13. WILD BEAUTY
TENEBRISM killed them here last year but that was over 1200m and she got an extremely hot rail that day. Her turn of foot is electric but I’m not keen on her as favourite, and Flotus was thrashed last night so the form isn’t franked.
TUESDAY strikes me as more of the setup Aidan O’Brien likes for a guineas filly, doing better at 3 than 2, and Frankie has a good record on O’Brien 2nd-string types.
JUNCTURE has to be considered on the basis of having the Irish contingent held on form. Couldn’t catch Agartha last prep but that was a leader’s track and hard to make ground. Tune-up win was good.
MALAVATH crosses the channel for this after a big run in the Breeders Cup, where she had a number of these well behind her. With rain she’d be a $4 chance. Drawn middle which isn’t ideal.
WILD BEAUTY is petite and one-paced but the best competitor in this lineup in terms of toughness and attitude. She always finishes her races strongly and lobs on speed which is crucial here.
If they all gravitate to the stand side then Aidan’s pair are in trouble. If they stay middle then they’re in with a shout. My fear is that SANDRINE barely grew at all and remains a tiny sprinting type, otherwise she is the overs of the race at $40+
BACK (WIN) JUNCTURE for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) – MALAVATH for 1.5 units
BACK (WIN) – WILD BEAUTY for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) – SANDRINE for 0.5 units
Race 6 | UK Racing | Key Runners
4. STORMY OCEAN
7. SUPER STARS
2. DESERT ANGEL
STORMY OCEAN always felt like he’d do better as a 3yo and some decent runs behind stablemates as a 2yo. He’s trained on this track so they wouldn’t send him out if he doesn’t handle the undulations. There’s very little to make a case for about the rest so I’m confident he can take this scalp.
BACK (WIN) – STORMY OCEAN 4 units
Race 7 | UK Racing | Key Runners
5. BELL SHOT
6. NORTH LINCOLN
Another race where the field has much too similar profiles and there is no obvious value to pursue. Five horses could win this but all are around the $5 mark.