UK Racing Tips

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Cheltenham Day 4

We’re into the home straight with the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. Yesterday had a monstrous high-profile casualty with Envoi Allen destroying futures bets across the globe when tumbling early in the race.

The Gold Cup is run on Day 4, and it’s a truly fascinating renewal with far more depth than the last two years. The ground should remain on the quicker side & hopefully, no watering takes place.

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This year’s renewal shouldn’t have anywhere near the drama of last year when Goshen unseated at the last (yes, still not over it). There are some extremely promising novice hurdlers here and ZANAHIYR is the eye-catcher. He’s swept all comers since transitioning to jumps, and the promising run of Saint Sam the other day has boosted his form. It’s a different ball game around Cheltenham however, and he may be taken out of his comfort zone by the stiff track & hill.

ADAGIO & HAUT EN COULEURS appeal at big prices. Adagio burst the bubble of Nassalam last time out, with Elham Valley and Houx Gris also in behind meaning there’s a little bit of depth to the form. Adagio also has experience around Cheltenham to hold him in good stead.

Haut En Couleurs won his only start in France before being shipped off to Willie Mullins. Whilst he only scraped in, there is substance to the form. The third horse who finished 15L behind has won at G2 level, while the 5th and 7th are both listed-placed.

I’m happy to chance both these at prices out past $20 as I feel they will start shorter.

TRITONIC has been electric since switching to jumps but I am concerned by the switch to a left handed track when he’s only raced right handed.

QUILIXIOS could be anything, and I would respect a dramatic late plunge on him. Cheveley Park have had a great week at Cheltenham, as has the flying Rachael Blackmore.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) — Adagio for 1 unit win and place

BACK (EW) — Haut En Coulers for 0.5 units win and place

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THIRD TIME LUCKI could live up to his name here and win at his third attempt around Cheltenham for the Skeltons. They’ve won three of the last 5 renewals of this race and this horse was 4th in the bumper last year. He does very well 2nd-up so it’s easy to pen the pipe-opener he had as he’s been set for this. Assuming he doesn’t make a complete mess of his jumps like at Musselburgh, he’s in this with a big say.

CAPTAIN KANGAROO won’t know himself with a flyweight of 64kg when he’s been carrying 75kg or higher at each career start. He’s run consistently without winning so today might be the day where he puts in his best run yet. He famously beat Champion Bumper Kilcruit on debut.

GANAPATHI is another that is weighted to do serious damage, and drops to 68kg from 74kg in G1 company. This is far easier. Follow any market plunge on him.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) —Ganapathi for 1.75 units

BACK (WIN) —Third Time Lucki 1.25 units

BACK (WIN) —Captain Kangaroo 1 unit

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STREETS OF DOYEN has been the plunge of the week. He opened $33 with some bookies and is now $8 at time of writing. It’s hard not to see why as he gave Flooring Porter a decent touch up when they met, and that horse bolted in yesterday. Good ground is his go, and the longer it goes on the better it’ll get for him and he may well start favourite under $5.

STATTLER brings Gaillard Du Mesnil form which has been enhanced this week, I just worry that he’s only a mudlark but am happy to take him on trust.

ADRIMEL looks as though he’ll stay all day. Only career defeat was in the bumper at Cheltenham last year and has been unstoppable since. He’ll surely be in the finish and I’m happy to take the price to find out.

FAKIERA is a shorter price than Stattler who beat him which is strange, and TORYGRAPH next best.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Streets of Doyen for 2 units

BACK (WIN) — Stattler for 1.5 units

BACK (WIN) — Adrimel for 1 unit

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AL BOUM PHOTO has won the last two runnings of this and both were notably easier. This year he meets better rivals, and some of last year’s rivals with tinkered gear. He’s no doubt going to give a good account of himself and punters a run for their money but scraping past a lazy Santini doesn’t fill me with confidence.

A PLUS TARD is also overestimated by the market and benefited from MINELLA INDO crashing at the 8th at Leopardstown. That horse went off a 3.5 favourite that day, with A Plus Tard more than double the price. I get the impression that without the fall, that race would’ve unfolded in a completely manner and we’d be looking at substantially different prices here.

For that reason, MINELLA INDO has to be a bet at double figures. His jumping was rubbish last start but I actually think returning to Cheltenham will bring out the best in him once more and he can run a blinder ahead of CHAMP, the horse who steamrolled him late on in the piece in the RSA last year. He has the best finishing burst in the field and is suited by the Gold Cup journey, it’s just that he jumps like a brick & is prone to mistakes.

SANTINI gets a visor to sharpen him up and hopefully fights out the finish once more, he’s just so hard to back with how slow he runs. I’ll be keeping a very close eye on the pace they’re setting in the corner of the screen and if Kemboy and Frodon want to slit each others’ throats up front with some suicidal pace, then Santini becomes a bet as he’ll stay all day. He’s never missed the top 3 in 5 races here

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Minella Indo for 1.75 units

BACK (WIN) — Champ for 1.75 units

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ELIMAY has been crunched into odds-on but simply put I’m not a fan of hers. She didn’t exactly handle the course in her previous start and there are a few here who could serve it up to her:

SHATTERED LOVE was barely getting warm over 2 miles when they last met and needs this longer trip. The jockey barely rode her for maximum effort so they’ve clearly had this in mind.

MAGIC OF LIGHT pings off good ground and has an impressive 2nd to Tiger Roll. She’s versatile and can outrun her price here.

COLREEVY won a G1 two back before thrashing Mount Ida at G2 level. That horse came from last and 1000 in-running to wipe the floor with them yesterday at the festival, so there is depth to the form.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) — Elimay for 4 units


Total Units Staked: 521.50

Total Units Returned: 519.15

ROI: -0.45%


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