U.S. Open 2018 Preview

Venue Name

Shinnecock Hills Golf Course, New York, June 14-17, 2018

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Course Details

Historically the U.S Open has placed a premium on driving the ball straight, with its renowned narrow fairways and thick rough. In recent years the fairways have become wider, the U.S Golf Association reflected on the U.S Open last year at Erin Hills, and have made a decision to narrow the fairways marginally. The Par 70 layout has also been lengthened by 446 yards and fairway bunkers will now be closer to the line of play. We will see a different looking layout to that of the 2004 Championship at Shinnecock Hills and I believe that the fairways are still on the generous side for a typical U.S Open, averaging 28-34 yards in landing areas, therefore the shorter straighter players may be disadvantaged.

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Weather Report

Thursday – A few passing clouds. Low 53F. Winds light and variable

Friday – Partly cloudy. Low 57F. Winds W at 5 to 10mph

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Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year	Winner	Runner Up
2007	Angel Cabrera	J Furyk*, T Woods*
2008	Tiger Woods*	R Mediate
2009	Lucas Glover	P Mickelson*, D Duval, R Barnes
2010	Graeme McDowell*	G Harvet
2011	Rory Mcllroy	J Day*
2012	Webb Simpson	M Thompson, G McDowell*
2013	Justin Rose	J Day*, P Mickelson*
2014	Martin Kaymer	E Compton, R Fowler
2015	Jordan Spieth	L Oosthuizen, D Johnson*
2016	Dustin Johnson*	J Furyk*, S Piercy, S Lowry
2017	Brooks Koepka	H Matsuyama, B Harman

Players contending more than once *

Players contending more than twice **

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Top 20 World Rankings performance at the event the past 5 years

Player	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	Adjusted Scoring Average
1.        Justin Thomas	280 (T9)	288 (T32)	DNP	148 (MC)	DNP	71.83
2.        Dustin Johnson**	148 (MC)	276 (1st)	276 (T2)	281 (T4)	297 (55th)	71.2
3.        Justin Rose	146 (MC)	148 (MC)	285 (T27)	283 (T12)	281 (1st)	71.75
4.        Jon Rahm	149 (MC)	287 (T23)	DNP	DNP	DNP	72.75
5.        Jordan Spieth	289 (T35)	289 (T37)	275 (1st)	283 (T17)	153 MC)	71.75
6.        Rory Mcllroy*	149 (MC)	148 (MC)	280 (T9)	286 (T23)	294 (T41)	72.45
7.        Rickie Fowler	278 (T5)	151 (MC)	154 (MC)	279 (T2)	287 (T10)	72.05
8.        Jason Day**	154 (MC)	282 (T8)	280 (T9)	281 (T4)	283 (T2)	71.3
9.        Brooks Koepka**	272 (1st)	284 T13)	283 (T18)	281 (T4)	DNP	70
10.      Hideki Matsuyama	276 (T2)	152 (MC)	283 (T18)	288 (T35)	287 (T10)	71.6
11.      Tommy Fleetwood**	277 (T4)	DNP	285 (T27)	DNP	DNP	70.25
12.      Paul Casey*	286 (26th)	148 (MC)	286 (T39)	294 (T56)	295 (T45)	72.75
13.      Patrick Reed	282 (T13)	148 (MC)	282 (T14)	288 (T35)	DNP	71.6
14.      Sergio Garcia**	284 (T21)	280 (T5)	283 (T18)	288 (T35)	295 (T45)	71.5
15.      Henrik Stenson	147 (MC)	W/D	285 (T27)	281 (T4)	291 (T21)	71.87
16.      Marc Leishman*	287 (T27)	286 (T18)	150 (MC)	DNP	153 (MC)	73
17.      Alex Noren	150 (MC)	152 (MC)	148 (MC)	DNP	DNP	74
18.      Francesco Molinari	147 (MC)	DNP	285 (T27)	286 (T23)	152 (MC)	72.62
19.      Bubba Watson*	148 (MC)	292 (51ST)	147 (MC)	146 (MC)	293 (T32)	73.2
20.      Phil Mickelson	DNP	147 (MC)	293 (64th)	287 (T28)	283 (T2)	72.25

Note – Defending champion Brooks Koepka has very strong form at the U.S Open, the only query is, he is not long back from injury. Dustin Johnson and Jason Day also have good consistent form at the event and are both in good current form, therefore they could easily find themselves in contention again. Rory Mcllroy has struggled at this event the past couple of years, along with Justin Rose. It will be interesting to see how they both fair this year, as they are in strong form.

Poor Form* Alex Noren leads the way with the worst form at the U.S Open, Marc Leishman, Bubba Watson, John Rahm, Paul Casey and Rory Mcllroy also have a poor adjusted stroke average the past 5 years. John Rahm’s has only played twice though.

Good Form** Brooks Koepka leads the way with lowest stroke average the past 5 years, Tommy Fleetwood is not far behind on 70.25, however Tommy has only played twice. Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Sergio Garcia are the other three notables with strong form at the U.S Open.

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Top 20 World Rankings Current Form Review

The top 20 players and their last 5 events with placings

Player	Event 1	Event 2	Event 3	Event 4	Event 5	Adjusted Scoring Average
1.       Justin Thomas	T8	T11	T21	MC	T17	70
2.       Dustin Johnson**	1st	T8	T17	T16	T10	68.7
3.       Justin Rose**	T6	1st	T23	T19	T12	68.55
4.       Jon Rahm**	T5	T63	MC	4TH	1st	68.94
5.       Jordan Spieth	MC	T32	T21	T41	MC	69.81
6.       Rory Mcllroy	T8	2ND	MC	T16	T5	69.72
7.       Rickie Fowler	T8	T14	MC	T21	2nd	69.5
8.       Jason Day	T44	T5	1st	T34	T20	69.8
9.       Brooks Koepka	T30	2nd	T11	T42	MC	69.27
10.    Hideki Matsuyama*	T13	T16	MC	T76	19	70.58
11.    Tommy Fleetwood	T23	T20	T7	MC	T4	69.22
12.    Paul Casey	T5	MC	T15	1st	T12	69.72
13.    Patrick Reed	T29	T41	8th	T7	1st	69.2
14.    Sergio Garcia*	MC	70	MC	MC	MC	72.83
15.    Henrik Stenson	T26	T13	T23	T19	T5	69.3
16.    Marc Leishman	T62	2nd	T63	MC	9th	69.94
17.    Alex Noren	T3	T23	T17	MC	MC	70.37
18.    Francesco Molinari	1ST	2nd	T17	MC	MC	69.62
19.    Bubba Watson	T44	T57	T28	T5	T66	70.75
20.    Phil Mickelson	T12	T13	MC	T5	T36	70.61

Note –  Players in good current form averaging under 69 **

Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose are in peak form at the right time heading into a major. Dustin with his history at the U.S Open and current form review, will easily be my favorite for the tournament. John Rahm has also been in solid form winning the Spanish Open recently.

Players in poor current form averaging over 70 *  

Sergio Garcia has missed 4 of the past 5 cuts and is “way off” form. Hideki Matsuyama also continues his poor run form. Alex Noren despite a 3^rd place at the BMW Championship, has been ordinary recently. Bubba Watson despite winning the Dell World Matchplay and 5^th at the U.S Masters  is hard to “catch”, he is inconsistent in recent stroke play events, along with Phil Mickelson.

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My adjusted Stroke Averages for the Top 20 World Ranked Players

Player	Adjusted Stroke Average
1.       Dustin Johnson	69.56
2.       Tommy Fleetwood	69.81
3.       Brooks Koepka	69.87
4.       Justin Rose	69.88
5.       Henrik Stenson	70.25
6.       Jason Day	70.28
7.       Patrick Reed	70.36
8.       Justin Thomas	70.39
9.       Jon Rahm	70.53
10.    Jordan Spieth	70.58
11.    Rickie Fowler	70.63
12.    Rory Mcllroy	70.69
13.    Paul Casey	70.76
14.    Phil Mickelson	70.92
15.    Hideki Matsuyama	71.02
16.    Marc Leishman	71.14
17.    Francesco Molinari	71.32
18.    Alex Noren	71.45
19.    Bubba Watson	71.51
20.    Sergio Garcia	71.72

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under’s and over’s

I am happy to oppose Sergio Garcia in any head to head tournament match betting, and top 10 betting for the U.S Open, as his form is not up to “scratch”. On the flip side Dustin Johnson is flying at present, and I think he will be very hard to beat. Brooks Koepka looks to be recovering well from injury and has a very impressive recent history at the U.S Open, must consider for any better along with Tommy Fleetwood, who are both “overs” in the market at $28 and $55 respectively.

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In Play Trading Opportunities

Assess the scoring average of the morning players Day 1. If scoring is tough we could see an opposite market trend to what we normally see on the PGA Tour week in and week out. What I mean by this is that players could easily shorten in the market after their morning round Day 1 until they commence play in the afternoon Day 2. The reason for this is because their position on the leaderboard could get better as the afternoon players Day 1 have to play two rounds before the morning players Day 1 go out again. Therefore if the course is playing tough like it normally does at a U.S Open, you should see the morning players Day 1 move up the leaderboard as the players on the opposite side of the draw come unstuck on the course playing 2 rounds.

I will be trading the 3^rd, 4^th and 6^th holes on the front nine. These holes are where players are most likely to make mistakes from tee shots and miss greens. They are tough Par 4’s and wind direction could be a disadvantage. I will look to be placing a lay bet and then a back bet once they have completed the hole or series of holes. On the back nine I will be trading 14 & 18. The same as mentioned previously.

Note – Any in-play “backing” and “laying” strategies should only be applied if there is ample liquidity in the market and the back & lay markets are compressed.

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Tactical Hints

I generally don’t like to back a leader after day 3 that is only leading by a shot, history shows on the PGA Tour that 75% of players leading by a shot entering the final round don’t win. They average worse than the yearly tour scoring average. This is great for two ball match betting, tournament betting etc. Something to keep an eye on!

Assess the odds of players in the clubhouse, compared to those on the course. As a general rule, players on the course are favored over those in the clubhouse, however if scoring is tough, players in the clubhouse may make up ground.

Before placing any 2 ball or 3 ball match bets, download the stroke averages of players Round 1, 2, 3, & 4 stroke averages from the PGA Tour Website. Assess if they are a fast finisher, slow finisher, quick beginner or slow beginner.

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Betting Strategy

As mentioned previously, I generally don’t like to place any bets pre-tournament, this is usually done after round 2, there are too many starters in a golf tournament. There is value elsewhere in my opinion.

As of Tuesday morning this week there is large liquidity in the outright betting market, however not so for any of the other markets. Stay tuned for better betting opportunities in the post-cut article after Day 2.

You can set up a back & lay book off my rankings above, betting to under’s and over’s in the market.

LAY – Sergio Garcia for top 10 – 1 unit (If you can get matched at $5)

 BACK – Tommy Fleetwood for top 10 – 1 unit (If you can get matched at $8)

 BACK –  Dustin Johnson Top 10 – 3 units