Turkish Airlines Open: Expert Preview

14/11/18

Author

The Analysts

Your expert preview of the 2018 Turkish Airlines Open. Held at the Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort in Antalya, Turkey. Nov 01 – 04.

Event and Course Details

Carya Golf Club, in Antalya’s Belek Region, is the first classic, heathland style golf course to be built on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. Set on undulating sand hills, Carya is a championship golf course at the heart of Turkey’s coast.

The heather shapes define the course into a truly magnificent spectacle that measures 7186 yards. The par 72 layout is a demanding test of golf strategy with free flowing holes that run between pine and eucalyptus trees and across a dramatic sand ridge.

Weather Report

Thursday – Sunny, 29 Degrees, Precipitation 2%, Humidity 30%, Wind 8km/h

Friday – Sunny, 28 Degrees, Precipitation 2%, Humidity 31%, Wind 3km/h

Past Winners and Runners Up

Year Winner   Score To par Margin of Runner(s)-up
2017 Justin Rose 266 −18 1 stroke Nicolas Colsaerts, Dylan Frittelli
2016 Thorbjørn Olesen 264 −20 3 strokes David Horsey, Li Haotong
2015 Victor Dubuisson (2) 266 −22 1 stroke Jaco van Zyl
2014 Brooks Koepka 271 −17 1 stroke Ian Poulter
2013 Victor Dubuisson 264 −24 2 strokes Jamie Donaldson

Current Form Review

Player Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5 Scoring Average
1.        Tommy Fleetwood T7 T11 T8 T24 T20 – 2.00**
2.        Thorbjorn Olesen T7 MC T20 T20 4TH – 1.94**
3.        Eddie Pepperell 1ST T44 T2 T6 T56 – 2.40**
4.        Tyrrell Hatton T22 T14 T2 T29 T12 – 2.10**
5.        Russell Knox 68TH MC T43 MC T35 + 0.50*
6.        Lucas Bjerregaard T69 T9 1ST T20 2ND -1.5
7.        Alexander Bjork T28 2ND MC MC MC -0.07
8.        Ryan Fox T30 MC T24 T27 MC -0.6
9.        Justin Rose T3 T4 2ND 2ND MC – 2.55**
10.     Brendon Stone T46 T81 T10 T12 T53 0
11.     Kiradech Aphibarnrat T4 MC T45 MC T31 -0.06
12.     Jorge Campillo T54 MC MC T44 T15 -0.12
13.     Matt Wallace T50 T16 T28 T44 T51 -0.25
14.     Haotong Li T11 T9 T5 T27 T24 -1.7
15.     Chris Wood MC MC T12 2ND T23 -1.76
16.     Shubhankar Sharma T69 MC MC MC T69 + 2.57*
17.     Julian Suri T64 T5 T19 T28 MC + 0.06*
18.     Thomas Pieters T18 60TH MC T34 T9 -0.83
19.     Andy Sullivan T62 T9 T10 T20 T28 -0.75
20.     Alexander Levy T28 T42 T32 T82 T20 -0.5
21.     Adrian Otaegui T62 MC MC T24 MC 0.67
22.     Andrea Pavan T22 T16 T5 T20 MC -0.94
23.     Erik Van Rooyen T22 MC MC T11 T35 -0.06
24.     Ross Fisher T34 T32 T40 MC T59 -0.11
Lucas Herbert T3 T7 T2 T28 MC – 2.00**

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par – Shubhankar Sharma, Russell Knox, Julian Suri and Brendon Stone are all in poor current form at present.

Good Form** – Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Eddie Pepperell, Tyrell Hatton, Lucas Herbert and Thorbjorn Olesen all lead the way with the best recent form.

History at Event - Last 3 Years

Player 2017 2016 2015 Scoring Average
1.       Tommy Fleetwood T23 T22 T60 -1.25
2.       Thorbjorn Olesen 5TH 1ST T41 -3.25
3.       Eddie Pepperell T6 DNP DNP -2.66
4.       Tyrrell Hatton T16 T10 T26 -2.25
5.       Russell Knox DNP DNP DNP -2.24
6.       Lucas Bjerregaard T48 T31 T26 -1.16
7.       Alexander Bjork T48 DNP DNP -1.66
8.       Ryan Fox T48 DNP DNP -1.66
9.       Justin Rose 1ST DNP DNP -3.27
10.    Brendon Stone 74TH T52 DNP -0.25
11.    Kiradech Aphibarnrat T6 T25 3RD -3.33
12.    Jorge Campillo T35 T17 T20 -1.75
13.    Matt Wallace T54 DNP DNP -1.77
14.    Haotong Li T66 T2 T26 -1.67
15.    Chris Wood T23 DNP 5TH -2.82
16.    Shubhankar Sharma DNP DNP DNP -2.24
17.    Julian Suri T8 DNP DNP -2.85
18.    Thomas Pieters T11 DNP T26 -2.47
19.    Andy Sullivan T61 T25 T60 0
20.    Alexander Levy T30 T25 T18 -1.75
21.    Adrian Otaegui 73RD T13 DNP -1.05
22.    Andrea Pavan DNP DNP DNP -2.24
23.    Erik Van Rooyen DNP DNP DNP -2.24
24.    Ross Fisher DNP DNP T68 -1.52
25.    Lucas Herbert DNP DNP DNP -2.24

Good History at Event – Thorbjorn Olesen and Kiradech Aphibarnrat have arguably the strongest form at the event the previous 3 years. Justin Rose will be a player to follow as the defending champion.

Poor History at Event – Andy Sullivan has struggles at the event, along with Brendon Stone, surprisingly Lucas Bjerregaard and Tommy Fleetwood have not had one top 20 finish in 3 years.

My Rankings

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Player Stroke Av My Rankings My Price Betfair
1.       Justin Rose 69.6 -2.62 7 5
2.       Eddie Pepperell 69.91 -2.34 9
3.       Thorbjorn Olesen 69.91 -2.21 12 16
4.       Tyrrell Hatton 69.85 -2.14 16
5.       Tommy Fleetwood 69.71 -1.97 20 9.4
6.       Lucas Herbert 70.62 -1.83 22 46
7.       Chris Wood 70.59 -1.82 25
8.       Haotong Li 70.48 -1.63 28 25
9.       Lucas Bjerregaard 70.44 -1.45 32 36
10.    Andrea Pavan 70.25 -1.42 36 60
11.    Thomas Pieters 70.31 -1.39 40 30
12.    Ryan Fox 70.25 -1.16 44 80
13.    Kiradech Aphibarnrat 70.29 -1.15 48 28
14.    Alexander Levy 70.77 -1.07 52 75
15.    Erik Van Rooyen 70.06 -1.05 56 80
16.    Andy Sullivan 69.96 -1.05 60 46
17.    Matt Wallace 70.6 -0.89 65 42
18.    Alexander Bjork 70.29 -0.88 70 65
19.    Jorge Campillo 70.11 -0.86 75 120
20.    Ross Fisher 70.78 -0.72 80 60
21.    Julian Suri 71.04 -0.67 85 50
22.    Russell Knox 70.7 -0.56 90 65
23.    Adrian Otaegui 70.45 -0.35 95 200
24.    Brendon Stone 71.68 -0.14 100 100
25.    Shubhankar Sharma 70.78 0.51 150 200

 “The Big Overs” – Lucas Herbert is a nice over this week, along with Andrea Pavan, Ryan Fox, Alexander Levy and Erik Van Rooyen

 “The Big Under’s” – Tommy Fleetwood is under’s this week, along with Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Matt Wallace and Julian Suri.

Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.

In Play Trading Opportunites

Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.

Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. This can be a great strategy for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3.

Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find themselves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.

Pre-Tournament Bets

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool. Below are some bet options to choose from.

Last week we were on fire with all 6 pre-tournament match bets profiting, hopefully we continue this week!

 BACK – Rose to beat Fleetwood at $1.70 for 3 units

 BACK – Olesen to beat Lowry at $1.84 for 2 units

 LAY – Julian Suri for Top 5 at $9 for 1 unit

 LAY – Julian Suri for Top 10 at $4.50 for 2 units

 BACK – Lucas Herbert Top 20 for 1 Unit

 LAY – Russell Knox for Top 20 at $2.70 for 1 unit

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