14/11/18
Your expert preview of the 2018 Turkish Airlines Open. Held at the Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort in Antalya, Turkey. Nov 01 – 04.
Event and Course Details
Carya Golf Club, in Antalya’s Belek Region, is the first classic, heathland style golf course to be built on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. Set on undulating sand hills, Carya is a championship golf course at the heart of Turkey’s coast.
The heather shapes define the course into a truly magnificent spectacle that measures 7186 yards. The par 72 layout is a demanding test of golf strategy with free flowing holes that run between pine and eucalyptus trees and across a dramatic sand ridge.
Weather Report
Thursday – Sunny, 29 Degrees, Precipitation 2%, Humidity 30%, Wind 8km/h
Friday – Sunny, 28 Degrees, Precipitation 2%, Humidity 31%, Wind 3km/h
Past Winners and Runners Up
| Year | Winner | Score | To par | Margin of | Runner(s)-up | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Justin Rose | 266 | −18 | 1 stroke | Nicolas Colsaerts, Dylan Frittelli | |
| 2016 | Thorbjørn Olesen | 264 | −20 | 3 strokes | David Horsey, Li Haotong | |
| 2015 | Victor Dubuisson (2) | 266 | −22 | 1 stroke | Jaco van Zyl | |
| 2014 | Brooks Koepka | 271 | −17 | 1 stroke | Ian Poulter | |
| 2013 | Victor Dubuisson | 264 | −24 | 2 strokes | Jamie Donaldson |
Current Form Review
| Player | Event 1 | Event 2 | Event 3 | Event 4 | Event 5 | Scoring Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Tommy Fleetwood | T7 | T11 | T8 | T24 | T20 | – 2.00** |
| 2. Thorbjorn Olesen | T7 | MC | T20 | T20 | 4TH | – 1.94** |
| 3. Eddie Pepperell | 1ST | T44 | T2 | T6 | T56 | – 2.40** |
| 4. Tyrrell Hatton | T22 | T14 | T2 | T29 | T12 | – 2.10** |
| 5. Russell Knox | 68TH | MC | T43 | MC | T35 | + 0.50* |
| 6. Lucas Bjerregaard | T69 | T9 | 1ST | T20 | 2ND | -1.5 |
| 7. Alexander Bjork | T28 | 2ND | MC | MC | MC | -0.07 |
| 8. Ryan Fox | T30 | MC | T24 | T27 | MC | -0.6 |
| 9. Justin Rose | T3 | T4 | 2ND | 2ND | MC | – 2.55** |
| 10. Brendon Stone | T46 | T81 | T10 | T12 | T53 | 0 |
| 11. Kiradech Aphibarnrat | T4 | MC | T45 | MC | T31 | -0.06 |
| 12. Jorge Campillo | T54 | MC | MC | T44 | T15 | -0.12 |
| 13. Matt Wallace | T50 | T16 | T28 | T44 | T51 | -0.25 |
| 14. Haotong Li | T11 | T9 | T5 | T27 | T24 | -1.7 |
| 15. Chris Wood | MC | MC | T12 | 2ND | T23 | -1.76 |
| 16. Shubhankar Sharma | T69 | MC | MC | MC | T69 | + 2.57* |
| 17. Julian Suri | T64 | T5 | T19 | T28 | MC | + 0.06* |
| 18. Thomas Pieters | T18 | 60TH | MC | T34 | T9 | -0.83 |
| 19. Andy Sullivan | T62 | T9 | T10 | T20 | T28 | -0.75 |
| 20. Alexander Levy | T28 | T42 | T32 | T82 | T20 | -0.5 |
| 21. Adrian Otaegui | T62 | MC | MC | T24 | MC | 0.67 |
| 22. Andrea Pavan | T22 | T16 | T5 | T20 | MC | -0.94 |
| 23. Erik Van Rooyen | T22 | MC | MC | T11 | T35 | -0.06 |
| 24. Ross Fisher | T34 | T32 | T40 | MC | T59 | -0.11 |
| Lucas Herbert | T3 | T7 | T2 | T28 | MC | – 2.00** |
Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par – Shubhankar Sharma, Russell Knox, Julian Suri and Brendon Stone are all in poor current form at present.
Good Form** – Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Eddie Pepperell, Tyrell Hatton, Lucas Herbert and Thorbjorn Olesen all lead the way with the best recent form.
History at Event - Last 3 Years
| Player | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | Scoring Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Tommy Fleetwood | T23 | T22 | T60 | -1.25 |
| 2. Thorbjorn Olesen | 5TH | 1ST | T41 | -3.25 |
| 3. Eddie Pepperell | T6 | DNP | DNP | -2.66 |
| 4. Tyrrell Hatton | T16 | T10 | T26 | -2.25 |
| 5. Russell Knox | DNP | DNP | DNP | -2.24 |
| 6. Lucas Bjerregaard | T48 | T31 | T26 | -1.16 |
| 7. Alexander Bjork | T48 | DNP | DNP | -1.66 |
| 8. Ryan Fox | T48 | DNP | DNP | -1.66 |
| 9. Justin Rose | 1ST | DNP | DNP | -3.27 |
| 10. Brendon Stone | 74TH | T52 | DNP | -0.25 |
| 11. Kiradech Aphibarnrat | T6 | T25 | 3RD | -3.33 |
| 12. Jorge Campillo | T35 | T17 | T20 | -1.75 |
| 13. Matt Wallace | T54 | DNP | DNP | -1.77 |
| 14. Haotong Li | T66 | T2 | T26 | -1.67 |
| 15. Chris Wood | T23 | DNP | 5TH | -2.82 |
| 16. Shubhankar Sharma | DNP | DNP | DNP | -2.24 |
| 17. Julian Suri | T8 | DNP | DNP | -2.85 |
| 18. Thomas Pieters | T11 | DNP | T26 | -2.47 |
| 19. Andy Sullivan | T61 | T25 | T60 | 0 |
| 20. Alexander Levy | T30 | T25 | T18 | -1.75 |
| 21. Adrian Otaegui | 73RD | T13 | DNP | -1.05 |
| 22. Andrea Pavan | DNP | DNP | DNP | -2.24 |
| 23. Erik Van Rooyen | DNP | DNP | DNP | -2.24 |
| 24. Ross Fisher | DNP | DNP | T68 | -1.52 |
| 25. Lucas Herbert | DNP | DNP | DNP | -2.24 |
Good History at Event – Thorbjorn Olesen and Kiradech Aphibarnrat have arguably the strongest form at the event the previous 3 years. Justin Rose will be a player to follow as the defending champion.
Poor History at Event – Andy Sullivan has struggles at the event, along with Brendon Stone, surprisingly Lucas Bjerregaard and Tommy Fleetwood have not had one top 20 finish in 3 years.
My Rankings
Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s
| Player | Stroke Av | My Rankings | My Price | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Justin Rose | 69.6 | -2.62 | 7 | 5 |
| 2. Eddie Pepperell | 69.91 | -2.34 | 9 | |
| 3. Thorbjorn Olesen | 69.91 | -2.21 | 12 | 16 |
| 4. Tyrrell Hatton | 69.85 | -2.14 | 16 | |
| 5. Tommy Fleetwood | 69.71 | -1.97 | 20 | 9.4 |
| 6. Lucas Herbert | 70.62 | -1.83 | 22 | 46 |
| 7. Chris Wood | 70.59 | -1.82 | 25 | |
| 8. Haotong Li | 70.48 | -1.63 | 28 | 25 |
| 9. Lucas Bjerregaard | 70.44 | -1.45 | 32 | 36 |
| 10. Andrea Pavan | 70.25 | -1.42 | 36 | 60 |
| 11. Thomas Pieters | 70.31 | -1.39 | 40 | 30 |
| 12. Ryan Fox | 70.25 | -1.16 | 44 | 80 |
| 13. Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 70.29 | -1.15 | 48 | 28 |
| 14. Alexander Levy | 70.77 | -1.07 | 52 | 75 |
| 15. Erik Van Rooyen | 70.06 | -1.05 | 56 | 80 |
| 16. Andy Sullivan | 69.96 | -1.05 | 60 | 46 |
| 17. Matt Wallace | 70.6 | -0.89 | 65 | 42 |
| 18. Alexander Bjork | 70.29 | -0.88 | 70 | 65 |
| 19. Jorge Campillo | 70.11 | -0.86 | 75 | 120 |
| 20. Ross Fisher | 70.78 | -0.72 | 80 | 60 |
| 21. Julian Suri | 71.04 | -0.67 | 85 | 50 |
| 22. Russell Knox | 70.7 | -0.56 | 90 | 65 |
| 23. Adrian Otaegui | 70.45 | -0.35 | 95 | 200 |
| 24. Brendon Stone | 71.68 | -0.14 | 100 | 100 |
| 25. Shubhankar Sharma | 70.78 | 0.51 | 150 | 200 |
“The Big Overs” – Lucas Herbert is a nice over this week, along with Andrea Pavan, Ryan Fox, Alexander Levy and Erik Van Rooyen
“The Big Under’s” – Tommy Fleetwood is under’s this week, along with Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Matt Wallace and Julian Suri.
Compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find outright betting “overs” and “under’s”, and also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.
In Play Trading Opportunites
Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.
I will be playing the Par 5’s this week as I usually always do. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed, particularly if they have an iron into the green and the green is not heavily surrounded by trouble.
Note – 75% of leaders that lead by a shot entering the final round don’t win, and they average worse than the PGA Tour average. This can be a great strategy for 2 ball match betting and laying the leader in play, but only if they are below $3.
Difficult driving holes and players with poor driving accuracy percentages. If they find themselves in contention, lay tee-shots and re-back after the ball comes to rest.
Pre-Tournament Bets
I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool. Below are some bet options to choose from.
Last week we were on fire with all 6 pre-tournament match bets profiting, hopefully we continue this week!
BACK – Rose to beat Fleetwood at $1.70 for 3 units
BACK – Olesen to beat Lowry at $1.84 for 2 units
LAY – Julian Suri for Top 5 at $9 for 1 unit
LAY – Julian Suri for Top 10 at $4.50 for 2 units
BACK – Lucas Herbert Top 20 for 1 Unit
LAY – Russell Knox for Top 20 at $2.70 for 1 unit
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