Tri Light Series

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 4 #2 Mr Tipla

This Busuttin trained 4YO Gelding raced well at his first Australian start when a comfortable winner at Seymour over 1422 metres on 20/12. That day he went forward & after settling 3rd just off the speed he made his run 3 wide around the corner & comfortably held them in the straight to win by 0.8 lengths.

I’d expect him to improve on that run & from an inside barrier he should get a nice run up on the speed.

 BACK – Mr Tipla

LAY – Race 2 #6 Numoor

This Hayes trained 3YO Filly looked ok when a comfortable Maiden winner at Sandown Hillside on 12/12, but the figures out of that race were only fair, & there are quite a few runners who can rate higher.

At Sandown she found a perfect spot just behind the leaders & doesn’t Map as well today. Numoor looks poor value at her current price.

 LAY – Goethe

Value – Race 3 #1 Mahis Angel

He can make amends after going under narrowly at Moonee Valley on 29/12/18 behind Catching Beams. That day he was checked at the 700 metre mark & then hit the line strongly after giving the leaders a decent start on the corner. Joe Bowditch, who has won on him previously, regains the ride today & from a middle barrier he maps to get a good run a couple of lengths of the speed. With even luck he will be strong through the line.

 BACK – Mahis Angel

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 6 #10 Mystyko 

First up this prep she was heavily snicked & given a really poor ride. Was as ridden better last start & ran a hole at big odds. Down in grade today & has enough early speed to utilise gate 2.

I am not overly keen to push the best bet with such an inexperienced jockey but with Fred on Numoor in r2 what choice do I have on a weak days racing.

 BACK – Mystyko

LAY – Race 4 #2 Mr Tipla

Whilst the horse is being ridden by the ChopKing E.Brown it does have 60kg & Concussion Plates going onto the front & we are racing on a good 3, So if this horse does run you’d have to assume that Busuttin & Young are in the “Minority” of trainers who want the tracks over watered etc.

Horse is lightly raced, but yet to do anything time wise or to the eye to justify it being favourite in a wide & low race.

 LAY – Mr Tipla

Value – Race 6 #4 Lotza Focus 

This horse has an “Electric” turn of foot when right. running home it’s last 600m 3.5 lengths faster than benchmark (puntingform.com.au). There looks good speed in this race & with the rail out 12 I think its likely horses run on towards the end of the day.

 BACK – Lotza Focus

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 3 #9 Twinspier

I reckon this bloke has some serious ‘X’ factor and and am looking forward to seeing how far he can go. He was heavily backed on debut on the Heavy at Donald where he failed and was sent for a break.

He then resumed over 1400 at Werribee where was a bit tardy out settled at the rear but let down like a real good horse to win impressively. That turn of foot is going to hold him in good stead as he goes up in class and if he can begin a bit better today and put himself in a striking position on the turn I think he will be hard to beat.

 BACK – Twinspier

LAY – Race 2 #2  Fearless Girl

I don’t think there is much ‘guts’ to this fillies form and am surprised she has come up in the market around the $4 quote. She found a weak maiden at Wyong for her debut win and ventured out wide to Taree for her 2nd.

Since coming down to Vic she has been only fair in 2 runs to date and whilst she will take benefit from that second up run at 1400 she has a negative jock change and an awkward draw to contend with today.

 LAY – Fearless Girl

Value – Race 8 #2 Loricain

Whilst getting deep into his first preparation I have been looking forward to seeing this horse run over the 2000m which he gets today. He was hard to miss on debut savaging the line over 1400m at Hamilton and after a couple of subsequent educational runs has really hit his straps particularly once Dean Yendall went on.

His only other run in town at Flemington 2 starts ago was a complete forgive when held up and unable to build momentum at a vital stage of the race so with better luck in running today, I think he can be right in the mix at the end of proceedings.

 BACK – Loricain

Caulfield | Wednesday  | 19 December 2018

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 2 #7 Cryptic Jewel

This mare has taken time to mature but judging by her sound return at Moonee Valley where she had no hope in an unsuitable race, this is the preparation she can put it all together.

Up in distance from a good draw for champion jockey Craig Williams who significantly sticks with her, she should be able to take a much better position in the run and I expect her to be strong late and hopefully be winning this as a starting point to progressing through the grades.

 BACK – Cryptic Jewel

LAY – Race 2 #9  Somnium

I can keep this one pretty simple. Nothing says ‘Lay’ more to me than a favourite in a metropolitan class maiden that is 0/11 and has also missed the place in over half those starts.

 LAY – Somnium

Value – Race 3 #6 Mumbles

This bloke showed some talent in his 2yo preparations and returned really well as a 3yo with a good win a Stawell running the best figures of the day. Last start at Terang he got too far back in a race dominated from the front but hit the line strongly once again.

I think that has him primed for the step up to 1400 for the first time and if Damian Oliver can have an ounce of luck from the awkward draw I think he is in this up to his ears.

 BACK – Mumbles

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 3 #6 Mumbles

His last two ratings over 1200m are extremely competitive in this race and he didn’t have a lot of luck at Terang last start when held up for a run between the 400m and 250m, which was the fastest part of the race. Despite that he still ran the best last 600m, 400m and 200m speed ratings of the meeting.

He looks a 3YO with new rating peaks to come and the step up to 1440m here with D Oliver taking over in a race that should be at least evenly run looks a nice scenario for him to make that step today. $6.5 is an appealing bet. I think he’s more like a $3.80-$4.00 chance.

 BACK – Mumbles

LAY – Race 5 #4 Goethe

Has come up $4.00 in the market, but I can’t find him anywhere near that price. His recent runs have been solid, but he still needs to improve at least 1.5L and run a new career peak to reach the likely winning standard for this race.

In addition to that he’s been slowing away in his last five starts and lacks early speed, so it’s difficult to see him anywhere but well back on the inside, which will be less than ideal on this track. The combination of a negative run style and lack of a rating up to the winning standard of the race is a significant long-term loser.

 LAY – Goethe

Value – Race 8 #2 Ayers Rock

Was ridden poorly first up at Werribee over 1600m last start (possibly to instructions) when he engaged in a hot speed battle in a field of five with a lead at all costs attitude. That saw him work hard early and ultimately set a very fast pace that gave no chance of winning. His rating from that run was respectable enough and he should be fitter for this.

With the prospect of a much easier lead today he can improve towards his better ratings, which include a 2.2L 4th behind Al Gayalel the last time he raced at this track and distance. Something like that would see him give a big sight at double figure odds.

 BACK – Ayers Rock

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 7 #4 Ocean Deep

Gets a Senior Jockey and a hungry Jock in Luke Nolen. The horse has been well backed and performed very good in its last two starts.

From barrier six Luke can find a good spot fwd in the run. Ocean Deep was the 10th fastest L600m at Sandown for the day & fastest of its race. The horse is going well, maps well get’s a snr jock on, Tick Tick Tick.

 BACK – Ocean Deep

LAY – Race 4 #10 Miss Skeptical

Chelsea Macfarlane from barrier 1, no thanks! You should self-report IMO if this appeals to you at $4. Trigger point has more speed early with Damien Oliver and Mark Zahra drawn outside her. No, No, No!

‘Olly’s pipes’ would be at all time levels heading into the Victorian summer after some of the severe restraining’s he’s been doing recently but surely he’s positive here on Kaimu. with Von Mystic, Trigger Point and Anemoi all appealing much more to me than Miss Skeptical at current odds.

 LAY – Miss Skeptical

Value – Race 8 #2 Ayers Rock

Fred Kersley from barrier 10 can cross to lead here. How the Track is playing really key. The horse has a career peak this track & trip. Good Fred is very good and I think his riding style suits his talents.

The race looks a juicy betting race with suspect horses leading the market. Ayers Rock is really fit, gets a positive Jockey change & will make his luck in front.

 BACK – Ayers Rock

Sandown Hillside | Wednesday  | 12 December 2018

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 4 #6 Zou York

The Mick Price Trained 4YO should be fully fit after 2 runs back from a 131 Day Spell. He resumed at Pakenham on 8/11, & after settling up on the speed, he raced strongly up the straight when a narrow 2nd behind Frankel My Dear.

He then raced at Bendigo on 27/11 when a close 5th, beaten 1.5 lengths, behind Phoneme where he didn’t get a lot of clear room in the run to the line. From a good barrier he should find a nice spot just off the lead & with the right run Zou York will be strong through the line.

 BACK – Zou York

LAY – Race 8 #9  Smokin Pierro

This Hawkes Trained 4YO has yet to rate the figures that quite a few in this field can. After finishing a well beaten 6th at Rosehill behind Sky Boy on 6/11 he went around as Favourite at Moonee Valley over 2040 metres on 23/11 & battled on fairly when a well beaten 3rd behind Dandre & Cleos Poet.

His only Career win came in a weak Maiden at Kyneton over 1450 metres & he seems poor value today.

 LAY – Smokin Pierro

Value – Race 5 #6 Shaquiana

She made her debut when a narrow winner at Cranbourne over 1000 metres on 30/11 beating Yulong Mercury. After settling just off the lead she challenged coming to the corner & fought very strongly up the straight before gaining the upper hand near the post.

There was a big margin back to 3rd place in a race that rated good figures. From an inside barrier Shaquiana will settle up on the speed.

 BACK – Shaquiana

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 2 #4 Maslow

Maslow Following an educational late 2yo campaign, this gelding chased home the in form Fill The Flute in a jump out which set him up for a sound return at Seymour. There from the awkward barrier he went back, got held up whilst the winner got a break on him but chased it soundly to the line.

Today with the positives of a better position in the run and the services of champion jockey Damian Oliver I am expecting it to improve of that first up run and be hard to beat.

 BACK – Maslow

LAY – Race 5 #7 Du Well

This filly trialled well and won on resumption at Mornington as she was entitled to though starting a very short priced favourite. There in a small field she sat outside the leader in a moderate tempo and sprinted home but today she finds herself in an actual ‘race’.

There is plenty of speed and talent amongst her opposition in this event and from the outside draw she looks particularly well found in the market against a nice bunch of sprinting fillies.

LAY – Du Well

VALUE – Race 4 #8 Rosso Antico

I have backed this mare a few times in the country recently and as a run on type she has been getting herself in impossible positions but continues to race well doing her best work at the end of her races. The small field today suits as does going onto the bigger track and in what has come up quite a weak race I think she can run a cheeky race at good odds.

 BACK – Rosso Antico

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 1 #6 Young Harry Cool

Blinkers, Tongue Tie and Olly go on to Young Harry Cool today. Harry recorded the 4th fastest L600m of the day on Debut at Moe & was really green doing it.

Hit the line like a horse that might well piss in next start.

 BACK – Young Harry Cool

LAY – Race 6 #2 As It Lies

Fourth up, 18 days between runs and Currie to Lachie King in a race likely lacking tempo. Jockey tactics & tempo are key here & i’m happy to take on the horse & jockey at $2.60.  Three runs at 1100m & now back to 1000m doesn’t make sense to me either.

LAY – As It Lies

VALUE – Race 6 #6 Cataracta

Maps to get a really nice run here fresh. Trial report from Nick Noonan was B grade “looked to move well in her action, work was good, best in the race” Nicks push along with some decent market support are enough to suggest the horse is ready to win 1st up. She is very lightly raced compared to the rest of the field, she has already run time that matches or beats most of these.

 BACK – Cataracta

Sandown Hillside | Wednesday  | 05 December 2018

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 6 #5 Flaaj

One of the all-time worst steers on this poor thing the last start, the 3200m race won by YOGi he sat 3 wide most of it & then did about a Km 4 wide, She was jumping 1000m in trip as well. I had at the time & still do now some fears this gelding might be gone mentally after running 4000m in a 3200m race. However, at the price $15 I think the stable is worth trusting, K.Walters (TheStopWatch) can redeem herself & nickname here, get the gelding rolling out in front and be very hard to catch, rock hard fit dropping back from 3 wide Sandown Cup 3200m race to this bm78 over 2400m.

 BACK – $15 is good odds, this is the only horse in the race down in grade.

LAY – Race 2 #8  Really Swish

Best figure are over 1000m & 1200m. Gets S.Baster on after 3 slow goes at 1400m, I don’t mind S.Baster on leaders, however, I think this lands back near last on the fence. Whichever is the reason they are pushing the cold to a 1600m Maiden I can’t see it being a good thing? I think most likely winner but the price $2 is poison.

 LAY – I think most likely winner but the price $2 is poison.

VALUE – Race 8 #2 Vegas Boulevard

Maps really well in a busy “map” race. The horse was luckless 1st up at the Valley for J.Fry. Slick SNICK job mid-race saw the horse requiring severe luck straightening despite leaving the gates on time from a good gate. Travelled nicely into the straight before running into Rump. When out was ok through the line, Given a smoother ride today b N.Lolen & with some luck runs top 3 here.

 BACK – Vegas Boulevard

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 7 #9 Chapoutier

Since stepping up to the 1850m two starts ago, she’s put in two very good runs at this distance. Her last in particular was a big new peak despite a very negative ride where she ended up 9.5L off the lead at the 800m in a race that had some pressure for the first 200m, but then settled into a slow to moderate speed during the middle stages. She had a stack of work to do from that position when the tempo increased near the 800m, ended up 7-8 wide on the bend and unleashed a powerful finish to just miss winning.

She ran the best last 800m and 600m rating of the entire meeting and the 2nd best last 200m rating, only beaten by another horse that had done very little up to that point.

There’s no doubt that if not ridden so negatively, she wins that race in dominant style and comes into this race with an entirely different look to her form.

That last start rating in itself is very competitive in this race and she gets a big positive jockey change from Dylan Dunn to D Oliver from an inside draw again. I can’t possibly see that Oliver will be so negative on her in this race (perhaps he settles 3-4L off at most) and that combined with a more genuine speed courtesy of Saucy Jack is an ideal scenario for her to run to another new peak and prove very hard to beat.

$5.50 in the fixed odds market is a great bet. I think she should be a clear favourite around the $3.30 mark

 BACK – Chapoutier

LAY – Race 6 #2 Ruomaza

I’m always reluctant to pot a Weir horse, but I can’t see $3.20 for this horse being anything but well under the odds. He’s a progressive and improving type, but needs to find a good 2.5 lengths improvement here to measure up to the level of exposed ratings among some of the other top contenders.

Weir horses can do that, but there’s a few others I like in this race so I’m happy to risk Ruomaza.

LAY – Ruomaza

VALUE – Race 5 #4 Lucabelle

His last start win at Moonee Valley returned a rating around 1.2L off the expected winning standard in this race and there’s no doubt in my mind he has the potential to make that improvement here, if not more.

A mid-race ease from Nolen gave away at least 1 to 1.5 lengths in ground that probably wasn’t necessary, especially as the pace was moderate and the way he ran-on once balanced up in the short MV straight suggested to me that she’ll appreciate both a step up to 1400m and the bigger Sandown straight.

With an ideal run just behind the lead and that potential to make improvement on last start, he can give a terrific sight at $9-$9.50 in current markets.

 BACK – Lucabelle

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 3 #16 Oneira

This filly resumed with a sound effort at Mornington and then went up in class to a listed race 2ndup here at Sandown where she worked early on a brutal tempo then didn’t have much luck in the straight but still ran admirably. She will go forward today and with a great fitness base will be hard to run down.

 BACK – Oneira

LAY – Race 2 #8 Really Swish

This colt spent his 2yo career as a 1000m horse and now getting deep into his 3yo prep at start no10 he appears for the first time at 1600. Its fair to say that’s not really the platform I am looking for when assessing these types of races. Really Swish also strikes me as one of those horses who gets back and is forever running on and I don’t think he has done anything spectacular doing that at his last couple of runs.

He looks to me to have his work cut out beating his main dangers Rebel Romance & Jungle Jane and seems short odds on that basis.

LAY – Really Swish

VALUE – Race 2 #9 Jungle Jane

Jungle Jane This mare first caught my eye with a sound trial win back in October. On the back of that trial she ran well on debut at Mornington doing her best work late then at her 2nd start here she had the speed map against her when again doing her best work at the end of proceedings. I think up in distance to 1600 today we will hopefully see a more proactive ride from Ben Allen giving her more room to let down in and I expect her to run well

 BACK – Jungle Jane