Tri Light Series

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 1 #3 Liveinthefastlane

Was very unlucky last start, held up just behind the leaders around the turn when travelling so much better than anything else. She ended up getting clear late and finishing okay for second, but that lost momentum at such a critical time was vital.

Even without taking that into account her lead up rating suggests she’s the horse to beat and she presents with strong prospects to run to a new peak.

 BACK – Liveinthefastlane

LAY – Race 7 #4 Gold Mag

You can leave me out of the $2.30 on offer about him.  After a very promising start to his career with two big wins, he’s been disappointing and comes into this with two ratings this prep that are very competitive, but more than matched by multiple opponents in this race. Perhaps 1500m will see him elevate to something like that early potential we saw, but until we see that I have to assess him on face value, which makes him a good chance, but nowhere near as dominant as the market suggests.

 LAY – Gold Mag

Value – Race 4 #1 Herecomesmybaby

Was ridden poorly last start when caught 3 wide no cover from barrier 4 in a solidly run race. Her prior rating at the Sapphire Coast with 64kg can certainly win this race and she has two prior ratings from her previous three starts on a similar level.

That profile says she could easily bounce back to form today and if she does that she’ll be very hard to beat at a nice value price (on a day where it was impossible to find a genuine longshot that has solid claims.)

 BACK – Herecomesmybaby

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 4 #3 Dancing Tycoon

Two scratchings have made Dancing Tycoon almost a moral, 3rd up & yet to have a race run to suit, today King can cross & control. The form all around Dancing Tycoon is strong & enough to put away a Bm70.

 BACK – Dancing Tycoon

LAY – Race 3 #7 Stocktaka

Smart horse in right yard but $1.8 at it’s 2nd ever start seems short to me, I expect the horse will be better over further. I wanna back Judge O’Reilly.

 LAY – Stocktaka

Value – Race 2 #10 Secretly Discreet 

I thought the race was really open, I loved the way she trialled, “could be smart” there has been solid money this morning & the Stokes yard is flying.

 BACK – Secretly Discreet

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 5 #7 No Drama Darci

This talented gelding resumed with a stylish win at Pakenham at short odds and last start here from a wide gate he had to give away to a big map advantage to a smart horse in Age Of Chivalry

but still ran a terrific race to run second. There is no Age of Chivalry in this race and he only really has to beat Permissive Star whose figures from his debut win at Benalla were flattering considering

the circumstances of the day. I think No Dramas Darci has a good margin on that horse and am expecting him to take this race out on his way to better things later in his preparation,

 BACK – No Drama Darci

LAY – Race 3 #7 Stocktaka

This was held up and arguably unlucky on debut at Pakenham when well fancied but how many times do we see that happen from the dreaded gate one. Drawn for more room today suits but he

seems short odds to me with plenty of that “unlucky last start” factored into its current price. Only having its second start its giving up plenty of race experience to its main danger Judge O’ Reilly who also

has the benefit of a massive jockey change. Looking at trainer Mick Kents stats they tell me that the only horses you want to back from his stable at the moment are first starters like this was at Pakenham and

backing the rest would send you express to the ‘poor house’ so all that considered I am happy to lay Stocktaka at the short odds on offer today.

 LAY – Stocktaka

Value – Race 8 #9 Plot The Course

I liked what this 7yo he did late in a totally unsuitable race first up which told me he was back well and last start at Moonee Valley he franked that by far exceeding his market expectations in running a

good second only beaten by a super ride on the winner. I like to compare ‘apples to apples’ when I can and whilst I had to go back a couple of years to find his last run over today’s track and distance it

is significant as it was a terrific run in an Eclipse Stakes where he ran fourth beaten less than a length. Fourth up today off a really good base with the jockey benefiting from having his first ride on it last start

I think he can be in the finish and represents a good value play.

 BACK – Plot The Course

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 4 #4 Tatiara

1st up after a solid trial at Cranbourne 4/2. She should be too strong here provided she’s somewhat FWD in condition. M.Poy sits upon a $2.7 shot drawn in barrier 10 which for me makes the race great to bet into.

B.Melham from Barrier 1 on a horse who’s shown superior ability appeals big time, $10 early was wrong & anything north of $5 is still good betting.

 BACK – Tatiara

LAY – Race 4 #1 Lake District Girl

Lightly raced & some nice form lines, but this race will be tactical for those with early speed, this horse will be in that early battle. I think the horse is somewhat exciting I couldn’t back M.Poy in this Situation at $2.7

 LAY – Lake District Girl

Value – Race 7 #4 Battlecamp

3rd up for new camp, Basterized 1st up when wide & cast beaten by Mr Money Bags, 2nd up wasn’t suited but still managed the 5th fastest last 200m of the day (puntingform.com.au) behind Rox The Castle who’s won again since. I think the Hillside track will suit his style.

 BACK – Battlecamp

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 5 #3 Winning Partner

His last start 2nd in Adelaide over 1250m returned a rating better than the current career peak of any other horse in this race and it presents with more merit than the raw figure indicates. After being slowly away he ended up 8-9L back from the lead with just an even pace up front, before sprinting a fast sustained last 600m to make up a stack of ground.

Even if he just holds that level here, one of the others will need to run a clear new career peak to beat him. However I suspect he can rate even higher up to what looks an ideal 1400m. His peak last preparation came over this distance and if he can get somewhere near that in this race then I can’t see anything else beating him. $2.40-$2.50 in the market looks a great price.

 BACK – Winning Partner

LAY – Race 8 #10 Dental

Won okay last start when dropping back from 1400m to 1000m, but will need to go at least 1-2 lengths better to win this race and there’s a little query if staying at 1000m will now be too short. With a number of others coming into the race with superior figures, she looks a reasonable risk at around $4.40 in the market.

 LAY – Dental

Value – Race 8 #7 Ravens Blaze

She was a total forgive over 955m at MV last start after being caught 3-4 wide, but prior to that has three ratings this preparation that are up to the winning standard of this race. They’ve all been at her home track of Mornington, but I’m not reading too much into that at this stage as her only other run in between them was over 1117m at Moe, which was probably too far and she pulled up lame on that day.

She’ll race right up on the lead in this race and if she can rebound from last start then she’ll give a huge sight at big odds.

 BACK – Ravens Blaze

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 1 #5 La Tene

I made this filly my best bet last week and from gate 1 she ended up in a poor spot three back on the rail which is a very hard position to win races from. On the seven day backup which I like particularly from a strong stable like Godolphin, she is drawn to be able to build momentum today and also has a significant gear change with the blinkers first time.

She looks to have plenty in her favour today and I am expecting an improved performance which will see her very hard to beat.

 BACK – La Tene

LAY – Race 2 #9 Ronan’s Rock

This Hayes trained colt has issues and been disappointing when beaten as a well short in the market at all four starts to date. A regular in the stewards reports, three runs ago he was noted as lame and having a throat issue, then after going over at odds on here first up he was noted as lame again.

He also has a bad habit  laying in at vital stages of the race hence today he has a heap of gear changes to try and help him go straighter. Whilst he has talent and fits in as some sort of winning chance, with his issues and poor racing manners I think he represents a good lay opportunity at the short odds on offer today.

 LAY – Ronan’s Rock

Value – Race 5 #5 Tatunka

Off a sound jump out this bloke debuted with stylish win at Kyneton with the best part of his race being late when hitting the line strongly. He steps quickly up in class and distance today but with the qualities he showed at his first start I think he is capable of taking that step.

His mother won over 2100m so the1400m today should suit and from gate 1 he will get a soft run in transit following the rail as he did on debut. I think he brings a bit of ‘x’ factor to this race and am expecting a good performance at decent odds.

 BACK – Tatunka

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 3 #1 Terbium

His Class 1 win at Racing.com Park on 31/1 had all the characteristics of a horse that is destined to measure up to much stronger races. He ran fast time for the class, showed very good acceleration when asked and was strong through the line.

He’s a dominant top chance in this race and looks well suited on the map settling a few lengths off the lead with genuine speed up front. I couldn’t mark him any longer than $1.60 here.

 BACK – Terbium

LAY – Race 7 #4 Peko

She’s come up $5.00 in the market, I suspect off the back of her 64 grade win two starts ago as favourite, but for me hasn’t yet run the figures needed to justify that price.

There are a number of others in the race at a longer price that have similar or slightly better ratings and the favourite La Tigeresa looks a dominant top chance off the back of her last start win.

 LAY – Peko

Value – Race 8 #10 Ritorno

He’s first up here, but has produced a number of ratings over 1000m that are right up to being in the finish of this race, including first up last preparation.

His career best is a 0.6L 4th to Brave Song at Flemington in a strong Saturday class race, so there’s no doubt he has the talent to win this.  Providing he’s not friendless in betting, he represents a great value prospect.

 BACK – Ritorno

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 7 #5 La Tigeresa

3rd up this prep, 21 days between runs, has gone huge both starts this prep. Recording career peaks at both starts, Melham sticks & the form has stood up from both runs this prep. Maps to get the perfect run. Ticks every box for me.

I also think in r4 #1 Nothin Leica High might finally break through, I suggested a bet on it 2 weeks back & the German Seidl slaughtered it, He jumps off & D.Lane gets on, hard to beat. Villa Sarchi should win r8 too.

 BACK – La Tigeresa

LAY – Race 1 #1 Abraded

This horse was slow whilst in the Weir “set up” now 1st up for Archie in a weak opener tot he meeting I think the horse is well under the odds as fav at $3.7. I couldn’t entertain a bet on the horse at a price under $8. I thought #8 Bullock & even #6 River Hudson were better betting options.

 LAY – Abraded

Value – Race 2 #10 Oriental Lilly

Was backed $26 into $6 at Geelong before being scratched. Then went to the Valley & wasn’t suited by the way the track played that night, but likely will be today on the Hillside track. With a good chance of the horse being suited, It’s a nice “type” & the amount of money for it at Geelong suggesting is has good ability.

 BACK – Oriental Lilly

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 2 #7 La Tene

This Godolphin trained 2YO debuted at Geelong with a sound 3rd running good late sectionals after getting too far back in a moderate tempo. She was subsequently ridden with more intent at her second go but got trapped wide still running really well for second place to a what looks a nice horse in Talented.

She looks really well suited to me 3rd up today out to 1300m from a soft draw and I think she is the one to beat.

 BACK – La Tene

LAY – Race 5 #11 Jungle Fish

Lightly raced mare of Mick Kents who back in April was beaten less than a length in an Adrian Knox Stakes at Randwick and subsequently given a long spell. Off the back of that she resumed at ‘Winx’ like odds in a restricted 4YO+ maiden at Pakenham and won as she was entitled to do but she beat very moderate opposition and the overall figures of the race weren’t that flash.

Her overall time was about 8 lengths slower than the BM64 on the same night and she was only home in similar splits for the last 600m. That says to me she is certainly vulnerable up to BM64 grade herself  2nd up today and appears well found to me as the short price favourite.

 LAY – Jungle Fish

Value – Race 1 #3 Busta Move

In a moderate metropolitan class maiden I thought Busta Move had a solid hope at odds. He has hardly been suited at any of his outings to date and first up at Sale from the awkward gate got back and wide and raced greenly laying in when asked to accelerate.

He has obviously had some issues with maturity and manners and has been back to the jump outs since that first up run and jumped out well.I am hoping today with the low draw and tongue tie going in a more suitable race on we might see a much improved effort.

 BACK – Busta Move

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 7 #4 Gold Mag

Gold Mag resumed from a 158 day spell when a strong 3rd behind Tin Hat at this track over 1200 metres on 16/1. That day he settled behind the speed & then fought hard up the length of the straight.

Last preparation he made good progress from 1st-Up to 2nd-Up runs so I’d expect him to make similar improvement today. He Maps well from an inside barrier & Luke Nolen should find a great spot just off the speed.

 BACK – Gold Mag

LAY – Race 5 #5 Sophies Revenge

This Ex- Darren Weir trained 5YO Mare has only been fair since arrive from WA & hasn’t been able to rate figures to win this race.

Last start she wasn’t able to respond in the closing stages when last in a small field behind French Girl over this track & distance on 28/1/19. Her overall record is not strong & she is probably looking for further now. I doubt if she has the turn of foot to be winning today.

 LAY – Sophies Revenge

Value – Race 6 #2 Metronome

Metronome returned from a short spell when a very good 3rd at Moonee Valley on 29/12 behind Embrace Me, before she was trapped wide thoughout, but still battled on strongly, when 2nd to Street Icon at Sandown over 1300 metres on 23/1.

With a bit better luck today she has the figures to be very competitive. She will go back at the start from a wide barrier but there looks to be strong speed up front which will give Metronome her chance to get over the top of them.

 BACK – Metronome

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 8 #8 Age of Chivalry

Following two sound runs in strong maidens in his first preparation this talented gelding resumed with a powerful win three weeks ago here over the same distance he contests today.

He looks a box ticker to me with the top jockey Damian Lane from a good draw and I expect him to be hitting the line hard as he did first up and be very hard to beat.

 BACK – Age of Chivalry

LAY – Race 7 #15 Declaration of Heart

A combination I don’t warm to is middle distance horses resuming from wide gates and this horse has that scenario today.

This looks to have a particularly tough task given that his two main rivals Gold Mag & Bravo Tango both have fitness runs under their belts and much better draws. He will have to go back and will be giving those fitter horses too big a start and I think he is a good risk on that basis.

 LAY – Declaration of Heart

Value – Race 3 #12 I Can Stay All Day

This 6YO mare who is flying for the new stable was heavily backed and an absolute moral beaten last start stepping up to 2200m at Camperdown when badly held up on the turn.

With that staying run under her belt and only 51kg on her back after the claim I think she can run a cheeky race at good odds up in grade here today.

 BACK – I Can Stay All Day

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 3 #2 Nothin Leica High

The horse has been ridden poorly at all 4 starts this prep, was heavily snicked last start to be cast 3 wide the trip. From 8 surely the German Seidl can put this bloke into a winning position in the run.

Neutral hands from him early can see the horse much further fwd. The horse is set to peak physically today imo & as such I’ll follow my money here again.

 BACK – Nothin Leica High

LAY – Race 1 #2 Game Keeper

A little plain last time at Flemington and now meets a small but tricky field with some potentially sharp unraced 2yo’s. Very well found at $3.40 early.

 LAY –Game Keeper

Value – Race 8 #14 Try Pink 

Provided the track is playing somewhat even I think this horse is great odds in a wide race. The horse made strong late ground at Yarra Valley when not many did all day. Mertens sticks which I like. Any of his 4 runs this preparation competitive here time wise.

 BACK – Try Pink

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 1 #5 Don’t Look Now

Did a good job at Werribee over the mile last start when chasing a very fast pace set up by a 200/1 shot. He was left a sitting shot after taking over on the bend, but still battled on well.

He brings the best ratings into this race, looks like he’ll handle the step up to 2030m no problem and gets a big jockey change from C Douglas to Linda Meech.

 BACK – Don’t Look Now

LAY – Race 1 #1 River Mist

$4.00 in current markets and will be suited by the step up to 2000m, but that last start run while perhaps visually good, was a little flatting given how slow they were running home over the final 400m. She lacks early speed and looks very one paced.

Combined with a rating that is a few lengths short of the standard needed to win this race and her supporters are speculating on significant improvement to win this race. That’s not the type of horse to take $4.00 about in my book.

 LAY – River Mist

Value – Race 6 #6 Algaddon Miss

Algadon Miss ran particularly strong figures on the clock in her maiden win at Cranbourne on 18/1, with good margin spread back through the field.

2nd up on her home track with the ability to race up near the lead looks a nice scenario for her to run something similar again. If she does that then she’ll be extremely hard to beat at a nice value price in the market.

 BACK – Algaddon Miss

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 3 #11 No Shame

Following a sound 2yo preparation she didn’t come up in the Spring and was quickly spelled. Her jump outs this time in suggested she was back in good order and she subsequently ran well first up at Yarra Glen where she had a wide run and was bloused late by Remuera who had a soft run in behind and has since run well at Sandown.

With Rubyanna Jane who likes to roll along in front in the race No Shame should be able to come across with it early, get into a nice rhythm and break her maiden today.

 BACK – No Shame

LAY – Race 8 #10 Clarice Cliffs

This mare bolted in a Class 1 first up but her SP suggested she was entitled to do so in that grade. She steps up to a BM70 with some depth today and whilst a repeat of her first up figure will have her in the finish here I am finding it hard to picture her improving off that run, therefore I think she is well under the odds in the early markets and am happy to lay.

 LAY – Clarice Cliffs

Value – Race 7 #8 Agyle Belle

The Mornington track can be bit of a ‘horses for courses’ type of place and on that basis Argyle Belle should make her presence felt here today. She has had two runs at the 2000m here and won both times most recently a dominant victory 2 starts ago.

Last start was a total forgive when in typical Cranbourne style the race was dominated by those forward on the rail whilst this mare was midfield 3 and 4 wide. From gate 1 today she should get a nice run forward on the rail herself and if she gets the breaks at the right time should be in the finish.

 BACK – Argyle Belle

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 8 #10 Clarice Cliffs

A lightly raced winner from the Greg Eurell yard. She won well 1st up at Geelong running 3 Lengths faster than Bm (puntingform.com.au) Mc Lean gave the mare a gentle snick & horse didn’t have the perfect run yet still ran a career peak by some 3 lengths, She beat La Tigeresa at Geelong who’s since run a best of day figure winning at Sandown. Should settle in an fwd position and be hard to beat.

 BACK – Clarice Cliffs

LAY – Race 2 #10 Indian Rani

This horse has a peak run of 19 lengths slow, she’d need to really improve to be competitive here. Now normally it’s not out of the question for a Weir trained horse to improve 20 lengths but surely after the ‘Events” the “scenes” of this morning in both Ballarat & down at the Magical Waters of TheBool that won’t happen.

There’s simply way too much chaos going on with the Weir stable today to bet at any of his with confidence.

 LAY –Indian Rani

Value – Race 8 #2 Izenashark 

3rd up & bring a strong form into this race. 1st up he was slow away (total forgive) beaten by Star Fall whos gone and won on sat in Sydney. 2nd up, despite it being the 7th race on the card & the fence clearly being NO GOOD, Mitch Aitkin sent Izena straight to the front & on the inside & in the inferior ground up the straight, the horse still managed the 7th fastest L200m of the day. J.Mott jumps on today & from barrier you’d expect a positive ride.

 BACK – Izenashark

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 7 #3 Mystyko

Brings dominant form and rating credentials to this race from his last two starts, particularly his last win at Caulfield where he showed a very nice turn of foot to race clear of his opposition and win impressively.

He has both performance quality and consistency, which can’t really be said for any of the others here.

 BACK – Mystyko

LAY – Race 3 #3 Burgonet

Lines up in a solid BM64 race here with a peak rating that is 1.5L below what looks the minimum figure required to win.

That’s still very competitive and a small new peak could see him win, but with 3 others that have already proven themselves capable of reach that level he looks a little soft as favourite in the market.

 LAY – Burgonet

Value – Race 6 #2 Metronome

Looks a nice value gamble in an even race that is not particularly strong. She was run off her feet first up in a very fast run 1200m race, but did particularly well to close from the back, making ground all the way to the line.

It was a nice effort from a horse that never settled into her own rhythm at any stage of the race. Her performance there returned a very competitive rating for this and with the benefit of that run plus a more suitable tempo to allow her to relax then she could run very well at a value price.

 BACK – Metronome

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 1 #5 Monarchs Court

This Darren Weir trained Redoutes Choice colt ticks a few boxes today. Onto the bigger track 3rd up off two sound runs he also gets a key gear change to help him with blinkers first time.

In a race with little speed on paper it should set up well for a fit horse like him who will roll forward for top jockey Mark Zahra and I expect him to be very hard to beat.

 BACK – Monarchs Court

LAY – Race 7 #3  Mystyko

In a rich vein of form off a dominant win at Caulfield this 5 year old sticks out as the bleeding obvious but I have a couple of queries on him at the short odds on offer today.

As he can race a bit keenly those low draws he has had of late have been a good help to him being able to get some cover an finish off. Drawn out in 8 today might make it a trickier ride particularly for the country class rider who my stats say is going at under 4% win strike rate over the last 12 months or so.

Just with those questions over map and jockey capability alone he appears a risky proposition to me as a short price favourite today.

 LAY – Mystyko

Value – Race 3 #1 Connery

Resuming today over 1400 I think this bloke has a bit of quality about him and am expecting him to run really well fresh. His previous two first up runs were both good with low draws doing him no favours so I like that he is drawn out today to have some room to let down.

He looked in good order in a recent Hamilton jump out and I think everything points to him running well today.

 BACK – Connery

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 2 #3 La Tigeresa

SP’d $9 1st up when ridden without intent & as a consequence wasn’t suited & hit the line hard. C. Douglas jumps off & Benny Melham gets on.

This same setup from J.Warren worked last prep & I think it will again today, From barrier 6 Ben can land further fwd & be winning.

 BACK – La Tigeresa

LAY – Race 1 #8 Zabelarina

I found it really difficult to confidently pen a horse today. I landed on this thing, times from 1st prep are poor, lightly raced yes, but so are most here. Jumped out well & seems to be the main reason behind the early support.

 LAY – Zabelarina

Value – Race 3 #1 Connery

1st up today after 2 jumpouts, My man Nick Noonan rated both jump outs as “good work” particularly the most recent piece of work.

Ethan Brown takes the ride which is key with the horse jumping from 7 and needing a smooth ride. Provided the horse presents well/ fwd in the yard I shall be launching at Connery who’s best runs have all of these well covered.

 BACK – Connery

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 5 #8 Mosh Music

She’s only had three starts as we approach half way through her 4YO season, but clearly has talent and that patience may now be starting to pay dividends. She recorded an excellent win over 1512m at Geelong on 26/12, clocking not only the best time rating of any horse at the meeting but also the best last 600m, 400m and 200m speed ratings.

It’s rare to see a horse top all of those categories at a particular meeting. That type of performance suggests she has Saturday class talent, so $2.80 currently on offer in a 5 horse midweek race looks very appealing.

 BACK – Mosh Music

LAY – Race 5 #2 Pure Scot

Has been racing soundly and does come off a competitive rating last start, but that’s as good as she goes and is more likely to regress a little in this race then improve to a new peak. At her level of form she’ll need both Moshe and Cash Affair to rate down on their recent performances to beat them and it’s hard to see that happening.

Both have good prospects to either hold form or improve to new peaks and in that scenario Pure Scot can run well, but is very unlikely to beat them. $3.50 in the current market looks far too short. $6.00 to $7.00 looks a more realistic price in the five horse field.

 LAY – Pure Scot

Value – Race 6 #8 Sworn Evidence

Has been racing okay over 1200m, unsuited in her last couple by the pace but still recording sound competitive ratings for this. The big key here is the step up to 1400m. Her ratings over this trip from two runs last preparation are clearly better and good enough to win this race.

The way she has been racing suggests she’s looking for that trip now and if she can improve towards those better figures she’ll be hard to beat at a nice value price in the market.

 BACK – Sworn Evidence

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 5 #3 Cash Affair

Was given a real Non-Thinkers ride at Flemington on New Year’s Day, was snicked early despite a lack of tempo & a track favouring those on pace. As a result, he wasn’t suited & hit the line super.

Today’s race will see him sit much closer & be much more suited. Allen off, Zahra on  & out to 1600m are both positives.

 BACK – Cash Affair

LAY – Race 8 #5 Prince Ziggy

Chelsea looked after us last week on Mystyko & I appreciate it, but this ride is scary, over 2000m from barrier 12 she will need luck & timing to slot in without Snicking. The race is full of winning chances & at $3.4 I am happy to lay.

 LAY – Prince Ziggy

Value – Race 8 #4 Nothin Leica High

This horse has been on the receiving end of the German import Seidl’s worst work since arriving on our shores. 4th up today for the prep & Seidl & 2nd go at 2000m are all positives.

I think there’s enough speed her for the team to not be overly negative early. Should “savage” the line with even luck.

 BACK – Nothin Leica High

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 4 #4 Jenkins

Talented colt with plenty of staying upside who after a big maiden win looks to have come back really well resuming with sound effort winning at Cranbourne over 1300m.

Up in distance today to 1600m and with not much speed on paper he should be able get forward and with the 3kg claim will prove very hard to get past.

 BACK – Jenkins

LAY – Race 4 #6  Cinncinnati Red

This mare looks vulnerable to me today particularly drawn barrier 1 in a small field with not much speed on paper. She looks to me to perform best in fast run races with room to wind up and today’s circumstances look to be the complete opposite of that.

She missed her chance to win a moderate race last start and strikes a harder race here with some talented opposition so I am happy to take her on.

 LAY – Cinncinnati Red

Value – Race 4 #5 Senrima Tide

This Mick Price trained gelding came straight onto my radar with a terrific debut at Echuca and followed it up with good efforts at its subsequent 2 runs knocking over his maiden in the process. He was quickly spelled and resumed with a sound effort at Seymour when unsuited from barrier 1 in what is shaping as a solid form race.

With a positive jockey change, up in distance and drawn for more room on a spacious track I will surprised if this bloke doesn’t run really well today.

 BACK – Senrima Tide

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 4 #2 Mr Tipla

This Busuttin trained 4YO Gelding raced well at his first Australian start when a comfortable winner at Seymour over 1422 metres on 20/12. That day he went forward & after settling 3rd just off the speed he made his run 3 wide around the corner & comfortably held them in the straight to win by 0.8 lengths.

I’d expect him to improve on that run & from an inside barrier he should get a nice run up on the speed.

 BACK – Mr Tipla

LAY – Race 2 #6 Numoor

This Hayes trained 3YO Filly looked ok when a comfortable Maiden winner at Sandown Hillside on 12/12, but the figures out of that race were only fair, & there are quite a few runners who can rate higher.

At Sandown she found a perfect spot just behind the leaders & doesn’t Map as well today. Numoor looks poor value at her current price.

 LAY – Goethe

Value – Race 3 #1 Mahis Angel

He can make amends after going under narrowly at Moonee Valley on 29/12/18 behind Catching Beams. That day he was checked at the 700 metre mark & then hit the line strongly after giving the leaders a decent start on the corner. Joe Bowditch, who has won on him previously, regains the ride today & from a middle barrier he maps to get a good run a couple of lengths of the speed. With even luck he will be strong through the line.

 BACK – Mahis Angel

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 6 #10 Mystyko 

First up this prep she was heavily snicked & given a really poor ride. Was as ridden better last start & ran a hole at big odds. Down in grade today & has enough early speed to utilise gate 2.

I am not overly keen to push the best bet with such an inexperienced jockey but with Fred on Numoor in r2 what choice do I have on a weak days racing.

 BACK – Mystyko

LAY – Race 4 #2 Mr Tipla

Whilst the horse is being ridden by the ChopKing E.Brown it does have 60kg & Concussion Plates going onto the front & we are racing on a good 3, So if this horse does run you’d have to assume that Busuttin & Young are in the “Minority” of trainers who want the tracks over watered etc.

Horse is lightly raced, but yet to do anything time wise or to the eye to justify it being favourite in a wide & low race.

 LAY – Mr Tipla

Value – Race 6 #4 Lotza Focus 

This horse has an “Electric” turn of foot when right. running home it’s last 600m 3.5 lengths faster than benchmark (puntingform.com.au). There looks good speed in this race & with the rail out 12 I think its likely horses run on towards the end of the day.

 BACK – Lotza Focus

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 3 #9 Twinspier

I reckon this bloke has some serious ‘X’ factor and and am looking forward to seeing how far he can go. He was heavily backed on debut on the Heavy at Donald where he failed and was sent for a break.

He then resumed over 1400 at Werribee where was a bit tardy out settled at the rear but let down like a real good horse to win impressively. That turn of foot is going to hold him in good stead as he goes up in class and if he can begin a bit better today and put himself in a striking position on the turn I think he will be hard to beat.

 BACK – Twinspier

LAY – Race 2 #2  Fearless Girl

I don’t think there is much ‘guts’ to this fillies form and am surprised she has come up in the market around the $4 quote. She found a weak maiden at Wyong for her debut win and ventured out wide to Taree for her 2nd.

Since coming down to Vic she has been only fair in 2 runs to date and whilst she will take benefit from that second up run at 1400 she has a negative jock change and an awkward draw to contend with today.

 LAY – Fearless Girl

Value – Race 8 #2 Loricain

Whilst getting deep into his first preparation I have been looking forward to seeing this horse run over the 2000m which he gets today. He was hard to miss on debut savaging the line over 1400m at Hamilton and after a couple of subsequent educational runs has really hit his straps particularly once Dean Yendall went on.

His only other run in town at Flemington 2 starts ago was a complete forgive when held up and unable to build momentum at a vital stage of the race so with better luck in running today, I think he can be right in the mix at the end of proceedings.

 BACK – Loricain

Caulfield | Wednesday  | 19 December 2018

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 2 #7 Cryptic Jewel

This mare has taken time to mature but judging by her sound return at Moonee Valley where she had no hope in an unsuitable race, this is the preparation she can put it all together.

Up in distance from a good draw for champion jockey Craig Williams who significantly sticks with her, she should be able to take a much better position in the run and I expect her to be strong late and hopefully be winning this as a starting point to progressing through the grades.

 BACK – Cryptic Jewel

LAY – Race 2 #9  Somnium

I can keep this one pretty simple. Nothing says ‘Lay’ more to me than a favourite in a metropolitan class maiden that is 0/11 and has also missed the place in over half those starts.

 LAY – Somnium

Value – Race 3 #6 Mumbles

This bloke showed some talent in his 2yo preparations and returned really well as a 3yo with a good win a Stawell running the best figures of the day. Last start at Terang he got too far back in a race dominated from the front but hit the line strongly once again.

I think that has him primed for the step up to 1400 for the first time and if Damian Oliver can have an ounce of luck from the awkward draw I think he is in this up to his ears.

 BACK – Mumbles

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 3 #6 Mumbles

His last two ratings over 1200m are extremely competitive in this race and he didn’t have a lot of luck at Terang last start when held up for a run between the 400m and 250m, which was the fastest part of the race. Despite that he still ran the best last 600m, 400m and 200m speed ratings of the meeting.

He looks a 3YO with new rating peaks to come and the step up to 1440m here with D Oliver taking over in a race that should be at least evenly run looks a nice scenario for him to make that step today. $6.5 is an appealing bet. I think he’s more like a $3.80-$4.00 chance.

 BACK – Mumbles

LAY – Race 5 #4 Goethe

Has come up $4.00 in the market, but I can’t find him anywhere near that price. His recent runs have been solid, but he still needs to improve at least 1.5L and run a new career peak to reach the likely winning standard for this race.

In addition to that he’s been slowing away in his last five starts and lacks early speed, so it’s difficult to see him anywhere but well back on the inside, which will be less than ideal on this track. The combination of a negative run style and lack of a rating up to the winning standard of the race is a significant long-term loser.

 LAY – Goethe

Value – Race 8 #2 Ayers Rock

Was ridden poorly first up at Werribee over 1600m last start (possibly to instructions) when he engaged in a hot speed battle in a field of five with a lead at all costs attitude. That saw him work hard early and ultimately set a very fast pace that gave no chance of winning. His rating from that run was respectable enough and he should be fitter for this.

With the prospect of a much easier lead today he can improve towards his better ratings, which include a 2.2L 4th behind Al Gayalel the last time he raced at this track and distance. Something like that would see him give a big sight at double figure odds.

 BACK – Ayers Rock

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 7 #4 Ocean Deep

Gets a Senior Jockey and a hungry Jock in Luke Nolen. The horse has been well backed and performed very good in its last two starts.

From barrier six Luke can find a good spot fwd in the run. Ocean Deep was the 10th fastest L600m at Sandown for the day & fastest of its race. The horse is going well, maps well get’s a snr jock on, Tick Tick Tick.

 BACK – Ocean Deep

LAY – Race 4 #10 Miss Skeptical

Chelsea Macfarlane from barrier 1, no thanks! You should self-report IMO if this appeals to you at $4. Trigger point has more speed early with Damien Oliver and Mark Zahra drawn outside her. No, No, No!

‘Olly’s pipes’ would be at all time levels heading into the Victorian summer after some of the severe restraining’s he’s been doing recently but surely he’s positive here on Kaimu. with Von Mystic, Trigger Point and Anemoi all appealing much more to me than Miss Skeptical at current odds.

 LAY – Miss Skeptical

Value – Race 8 #2 Ayers Rock

Fred Kersley from barrier 10 can cross to lead here. How the Track is playing really key. The horse has a career peak this track & trip. Good Fred is very good and I think his riding style suits his talents.

The race looks a juicy betting race with suspect horses leading the market. Ayers Rock is really fit, gets a positive Jockey change & will make his luck in front.

 BACK – Ayers Rock

Sandown Hillside | Wednesday  | 12 December 2018

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 4 #6 Zou York

The Mick Price Trained 4YO should be fully fit after 2 runs back from a 131 Day Spell. He resumed at Pakenham on 8/11, & after settling up on the speed, he raced strongly up the straight when a narrow 2nd behind Frankel My Dear.

He then raced at Bendigo on 27/11 when a close 5th, beaten 1.5 lengths, behind Phoneme where he didn’t get a lot of clear room in the run to the line. From a good barrier he should find a nice spot just off the lead & with the right run Zou York will be strong through the line.

 BACK – Zou York

LAY – Race 8 #9  Smokin Pierro

This Hawkes Trained 4YO has yet to rate the figures that quite a few in this field can. After finishing a well beaten 6th at Rosehill behind Sky Boy on 6/11 he went around as Favourite at Moonee Valley over 2040 metres on 23/11 & battled on fairly when a well beaten 3rd behind Dandre & Cleos Poet.

His only Career win came in a weak Maiden at Kyneton over 1450 metres & he seems poor value today.

 LAY – Smokin Pierro

Value – Race 5 #6 Shaquiana

She made her debut when a narrow winner at Cranbourne over 1000 metres on 30/11 beating Yulong Mercury. After settling just off the lead she challenged coming to the corner & fought very strongly up the straight before gaining the upper hand near the post.

There was a big margin back to 3rd place in a race that rated good figures. From an inside barrier Shaquiana will settle up on the speed.

 BACK – Shaquiana

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 2 #4 Maslow

Maslow Following an educational late 2yo campaign, this gelding chased home the in form Fill The Flute in a jump out which set him up for a sound return at Seymour. There from the awkward barrier he went back, got held up whilst the winner got a break on him but chased it soundly to the line.

Today with the positives of a better position in the run and the services of champion jockey Damian Oliver I am expecting it to improve of that first up run and be hard to beat.

 BACK – Maslow

LAY – Race 5 #7 Du Well

This filly trialled well and won on resumption at Mornington as she was entitled to though starting a very short priced favourite. There in a small field she sat outside the leader in a moderate tempo and sprinted home but today she finds herself in an actual ‘race’.

There is plenty of speed and talent amongst her opposition in this event and from the outside draw she looks particularly well found in the market against a nice bunch of sprinting fillies.

LAY – Du Well

VALUE – Race 4 #8 Rosso Antico

I have backed this mare a few times in the country recently and as a run on type she has been getting herself in impossible positions but continues to race well doing her best work at the end of her races. The small field today suits as does going onto the bigger track and in what has come up quite a weak race I think she can run a cheeky race at good odds.

 BACK – Rosso Antico

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 1 #6 Young Harry Cool

Blinkers, Tongue Tie and Olly go on to Young Harry Cool today. Harry recorded the 4th fastest L600m of the day on Debut at Moe & was really green doing it.

Hit the line like a horse that might well piss in next start.

 BACK – Young Harry Cool

LAY – Race 6 #2 As It Lies

Fourth up, 18 days between runs and Currie to Lachie King in a race likely lacking tempo. Jockey tactics & tempo are key here & i’m happy to take on the horse & jockey at $2.60.  Three runs at 1100m & now back to 1000m doesn’t make sense to me either.

LAY – As It Lies

VALUE – Race 6 #6 Cataracta

Maps to get a really nice run here fresh. Trial report from Nick Noonan was B grade “looked to move well in her action, work was good, best in the race” Nicks push along with some decent market support are enough to suggest the horse is ready to win 1st up. She is very lightly raced compared to the rest of the field, she has already run time that matches or beats most of these.

 BACK – Cataracta

Sandown Hillside | Wednesday  | 05 December 2018

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag

BACK – Race 6 #5 Flaaj

One of the all-time worst steers on this poor thing the last start, the 3200m race won by YOGi he sat 3 wide most of it & then did about a Km 4 wide, She was jumping 1000m in trip as well. I had at the time & still do now some fears this gelding might be gone mentally after running 4000m in a 3200m race. However, at the price $15 I think the stable is worth trusting, K.Walters (TheStopWatch) can redeem herself & nickname here, get the gelding rolling out in front and be very hard to catch, rock hard fit dropping back from 3 wide Sandown Cup 3200m race to this bm78 over 2400m.

 BACK – $15 is good odds, this is the only horse in the race down in grade.

LAY – Race 2 #8  Really Swish

Best figure are over 1000m & 1200m. Gets S.Baster on after 3 slow goes at 1400m, I don’t mind S.Baster on leaders, however, I think this lands back near last on the fence. Whichever is the reason they are pushing the cold to a 1600m Maiden I can’t see it being a good thing? I think most likely winner but the price $2 is poison.

 LAY – I think most likely winner but the price $2 is poison.

VALUE – Race 8 #2 Vegas Boulevard

Maps really well in a busy “map” race. The horse was luckless 1st up at the Valley for J.Fry. Slick SNICK job mid-race saw the horse requiring severe luck straightening despite leaving the gates on time from a good gate. Travelled nicely into the straight before running into Rump. When out was ok through the line, Given a smoother ride today b N.Lolen & with some luck runs top 3 here.

 BACK – Vegas Boulevard

Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing

BACK – Race 7 #9 Chapoutier

Since stepping up to the 1850m two starts ago, she’s put in two very good runs at this distance. Her last in particular was a big new peak despite a very negative ride where she ended up 9.5L off the lead at the 800m in a race that had some pressure for the first 200m, but then settled into a slow to moderate speed during the middle stages. She had a stack of work to do from that position when the tempo increased near the 800m, ended up 7-8 wide on the bend and unleashed a powerful finish to just miss winning.

She ran the best last 800m and 600m rating of the entire meeting and the 2nd best last 200m rating, only beaten by another horse that had done very little up to that point.

There’s no doubt that if not ridden so negatively, she wins that race in dominant style and comes into this race with an entirely different look to her form.

That last start rating in itself is very competitive in this race and she gets a big positive jockey change from Dylan Dunn to D Oliver from an inside draw again. I can’t possibly see that Oliver will be so negative on her in this race (perhaps he settles 3-4L off at most) and that combined with a more genuine speed courtesy of Saucy Jack is an ideal scenario for her to run to another new peak and prove very hard to beat.

$5.50 in the fixed odds market is a great bet. I think she should be a clear favourite around the $3.30 mark

 BACK – Chapoutier

LAY – Race 6 #2 Ruomaza

I’m always reluctant to pot a Weir horse, but I can’t see $3.20 for this horse being anything but well under the odds. He’s a progressive and improving type, but needs to find a good 2.5 lengths improvement here to measure up to the level of exposed ratings among some of the other top contenders.

Weir horses can do that, but there’s a few others I like in this race so I’m happy to risk Ruomaza.

LAY – Ruomaza

VALUE – Race 5 #4 Lucabelle

His last start win at Moonee Valley returned a rating around 1.2L off the expected winning standard in this race and there’s no doubt in my mind he has the potential to make that improvement here, if not more.

A mid-race ease from Nolen gave away at least 1 to 1.5 lengths in ground that probably wasn’t necessary, especially as the pace was moderate and the way he ran-on once balanced up in the short MV straight suggested to me that she’ll appreciate both a step up to 1400m and the bigger Sandown straight.

With an ideal run just behind the lead and that potential to make improvement on last start, he can give a terrific sight at $9-$9.50 in current markets.

 BACK – Lucabelle

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan

BACK – Race 3 #16 Oneira

This filly resumed with a sound effort at Mornington and then went up in class to a listed race 2ndup here at Sandown where she worked early on a brutal tempo then didn’t have much luck in the straight but still ran admirably. She will go forward today and with a great fitness base will be hard to run down.

 BACK – Oneira

LAY – Race 2 #8 Really Swish

This colt spent his 2yo career as a 1000m horse and now getting deep into his 3yo prep at start no10 he appears for the first time at 1600. Its fair to say that’s not really the platform I am looking for when assessing these types of races. Really Swish also strikes me as one of those horses who gets back and is forever running on and I don’t think he has done anything spectacular doing that at his last couple of runs.

He looks to me to have his work cut out beating his main dangers Rebel Romance & Jungle Jane and seems short odds on that basis.

LAY – Really Swish

VALUE – Race 2 #9 Jungle Jane

Jungle Jane This mare first caught my eye with a sound trial win back in October. On the back of that trial she ran well on debut at Mornington doing her best work late then at her 2nd start here she had the speed map against her when again doing her best work at the end of proceedings. I think up in distance to 1600 today we will hopefully see a more proactive ride from Ben Allen giving her more room to let down in and I expect her to run well

 BACK – Jungle Jane