For 10 weeks Racing Victoria will trial a new twilight racing series with an additional meeting each Wednesday. Betfair has engaged three top Professional Punters to battle it out each week with a focus on these meetings. The winner will be crowned Tri-Light Champion.
Our three punters will give their best BACK (3 unit bet), LAY ( risking to lose a 1 unit) and Value (1 unit bet) selection with winner returning the best ROI for the 10 week period.
Daniel O’Sullivan – @TRBHorseRacing
Daniel first attended the races as a 20yo and found himself quickly immersed in Don Scott’s books and racing paper’s such as the Sportsman. With an analytical mind he was quickly focused on times and ratings looking for edges within the market. Daniel developed a database and ratings system and has been a professional punters for over 15 years. He’s now the Director of Betsmart Racing and The Rating Bureau where he educates, analyses races and provides intelligence to a broad spectrum of customers in the racing game.
Dan Kelly – @winbetdan
Dan’s career began his in his early twenties working as a clerk for leading Melbourne Rails Bookmaker Anthony Doughty. Anthony does his own form and creates his own price ratings which peaked Dan’s interest in wagering and before too long he started buying the same videos and began his journey into form & video analysis. In 2008, Dan joined Mark Read’s IAS as a video analyst on Hong Kong races which honed his skills even more, before moving into full time form analysis and trading on Victorian races. IAS merged with Sportsbet following the Paddy Power takeover and soon after Dan decided it was time to have a go out on his own. Since that time Dan has been a been a full time punter ever since.
Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag
Jack primarily focuses on Mounting Yard Assessments for Victorian Racing, he puts each assessment into a database which along with detailed video and sectional time reviews (puntingform.com.au). This process allows Jack to identify key horses to follow. Jack has provided form-based betting plans to clients for over three years. Jack’s Mounting Yard Mail & MailBag-Movers products are available via dickosmailbag.com Jack & Drew Patchell @theprofits provide a weekly preview & review YouTube show for Vic Racing.
Lightly raced Colt who gets Damien Oliver on today for a stable who don’t mind putting him on when they’ve put their money on. Early support first up here tells me the stable has this colt forward enough to be winning a weak race, he ran third to Peaceful State at second ever start where he was slowly away, and his starting price was $3.30 against Peaceful State’s $2.05.
Yet to win after three tries at 1000m. Shown glimpses of ability and gets a chance here with a positive switch from Mallyon to Mertens off a somewhat unlucky run last time. Looks priced off Gai Waterhouse/ Adrian Bott factor meaning it’s under the odds at $3.00.
Thought we’d be getting around $2.80-$3.00 with a friendlier map here. Comes from the red hot Holbien race, from which many winners have come. Haunted paraded well but 1-2 away then and was a big run in the race. I’ve been waiting to launch into him ever since. Today we can at each-way odds. I also have plenty of time for Mawzoona who will be better suited at Sandown.
This talented colt who resumes today looks to have plenty of upside and should be taking care of this lot. He was ‘truck loaded’ on debut at Kyneton and ran well but just outsprinted by a horse with race experience. He then was expected to push the classy Peaceful State at Ballarat but raced greenly and was disappointing thus heading straight to the paddock. First up today at a suitable 1400m for an in-form trainer and jockey combination in Laming and Oliver he should be too good for these on his way to stronger assignments later in the preparation.
This Godolphin 3yo has been terrific in his two runs to date but I think he has a few things against him today which could make him vulnerable. The first one being the wide draw which will see him covering ground at some stage which will be a new scenario for him after hardly going around a horse at his two previous runs. Also, whilst there could be another reason for it, when I see gaps between runs like the six weeks he has had I lean towards these sorts runners having had a setback which is not ideal particularly as the early market favourite. There are plenty of talented improving types amongst his opposition today, so I think there enough queries for him to be a risky proposition.
This guy is on quick back-up from Moonee Valley on Friday Night where he was basically held up the entire straight and not tested at all. He draws wide today but I think that suits him better after running well from a similar draw two starts ago and the traffic problems he encountered from the lower gate last start. He also has the versatility to either roll forward if need be like when he won at Yarra Glen first up or come from off them like he did when running his good second to Bowerman. For a horse who looks to me like he will at his best when balanced up, the biggest positive I can see for Tbilisi today is the move away from the tighter turning tracks onto the bigger spacious Sandown track. So, with a bit in his favour I am hoping we can see the best of this horse today and think he presents as a decent value play.
Freshened after a good close third behind Holbein on the Lakeside track back in February. That race rated strongly, and the subsequent form and ratings only confirm that further with Holbein proving himself a Saturday class winner, Bowerman winning at Moonee Valley along with others behind them that were suitably placed to win weaker races with similar ratings. Haunted looks a horse on the way up, suited by 1300m and he gets the blinkers on, which may bring about further improvement.
It goes against my normal philosophy to like a horse that will most likely be in the second half of the field, but there does look to be good pace up front to suit and historically similar conditions at this track has given horses back off the pace a better chance than is normally the case. The $4.20 to $4.40 in the current market has appeal.
Was weak first up over this track and distance when beaten 4.1 length after leading at an even speed. On that performance she’s a longshot here and while her two-previous career runs last preparation had very competitive ratings for this race, they were from synthetic track runs, which is a big query. There are many horses that can’t produce their synthetic ratings back on turf and I’ve found it profitable to not trust those ratings on turf until the horse proves otherwise. That might happen with Weekend Escape but given her only run on turf so far was poor, I’m happy to risk her at $4.80-$5.00 in current markets.
The favourite in this race Raspberry Rose was very impressive at her debut back in October with a rating that could win this easily. However, it was on a Soft track and she did fail the next start over 1200m on a Good 4. That combined with the fact that she’s likely to be a long way back here over 1000m presents some risk and a suitable scenario to look for a much better value runner.
Hampton Classic looks to fit that profile. She’s first up here after just two career runs where she’s been backed and started a short price at Sale and Terang. Her December win at Terang over this distance returned solid ratings that are super competitive in this race outside of the peak rating of the favourite and there’s every chance that she’s improved further with the benefit of a break. Aaron Purcell is a good first up trainer and the booking of Damien Oliver provides some confidence that she’s set to run well. From a good draw she can position up just behind the lead and at up to $7.50 in current markets looks a nice value chance.
Best horse in a weak race, second up and down in grade for a confidence-building kill I hope. Closed off nicely first up with a nice switch to Craig Williams, has the speed to be where ever suits in the run, suspect 2-3 back on the fence. He paraded much better fresh at the valley compared to last preparation, thinking it might springboard off this into better races. Think Borrow is the main threat, it wasn’t suited last start but flashed home.
Looks a competitive race and struggling to see why it’s so short in the market. Will map well back and despite racing at Group level previously she’s yet to do anything of note. Prefer second up at 1600m.
Zahra sticks after a brave third at Valley last start. She is a race fit 1000m mare who makes her own luck up front. Yet to miss a placing over the 1000m at this track.
Sweet Mischief is a quality filly in and in my opinion she is the one in this race going places. Resuming off a sound spring campaign which saw her get all the way to the Victorian Oaks she appears to me to have a class edge on her rivals today and with a first up strike rate of around 25% the McEvoy stable is one camp I am happy to be with when their horses resume. With some wide gates rolling forward there should be a nice tempo which will suit her coming from midfield and showing her strength late. I think she will be winning today and progressing on to much stronger assignments later in the Autumn.
This mare has not put a foot wrong in her two runs to date but I think she has the task ahead of her on to the more testing Sandown track today. She hasa tricky gate to contend with which will see her in the second half of the field and whilst she came from the rear at Moonee Valley last start that race was set up for runners on with the winner back alongside her in the run. With an unfashionable trainer/jockey combination and against some talented opposition who are going to really strong at the end of 1300m I happy to risk Borrow today.
This bloke has had some issues but judging by his sound first up return he is hopefully over them and ready to make his way through the grades. He scored two wins form his first four starts by defeating his classy stablemate Fuhryk on debut at Wodonga and the handy Sunday Pray at Pakenham before obviously running into some problems. He produced the best last 800m of the night when resuming which tells me he is back in good order and with natural improvement off that run he should run well again today and on that basis I think he represents a good value play.
I wasn’t keen on her last start, but she proved me wrong, improving significantly with the blinkers back on to bolt in by 5 lengths with excellent figures. There’s certainly some risk that she regresses here, especially away from her favourite (home) track of Bendigo, but I take some confidence from the fact that the last time she scored a high rating big margin win at Bendigo, she did come out and win easily at Moonee Valley the following start with an identical rating. Anything close to her top performance from last start wins this comfortably and $3.30 in the market looks a great price to gamble she can repeat.
$3.30 in current markets and is certainly a winning chance, but looks to have a few risk factors that make the price too short. He jumps from 1300m to 1600m here with nothing in his speed indicators to suggest that’s a positive. If anything, his two prior runs over 1300m at Bendigo and a prior run over 1400m suggest a step out to 1600m is less than ideal. Further to that he got total control of his Bendigo race last start and that looks unlikely here with Runaway (blinkers back on) engaged. There are enough concerns with his profile to suggest $3.30 is particularly poor value.
Her form doesn’t look great, but after three runs at 1400m, she looks set to improve sharply stepping up to a much more suitable 1600m with blinkers on. Her best ratings in her ‘Queensland days’ where clearly at 1600m & 2000m and the time she did step up from 1300m to 1600m brought about a significant rating improvement on her prior form. I like talented apprentice Ethan Brown taking the ride (great record with Weir) and in a small field she will have the opportunity to settle closer while travelling well within her comfort zone. Those factors combined with the fact that the Weir stable has hit a hot run of horses improving sharply to their peak makes the $6.00 in the market look a great value price.
Chop King Jnr (E.Brown) replaces Ben Allen here which I love. The form around Holy Blade is red hot for this, He drops back in grade from BM78 to BM70 and is the only horse in the market with race fitness. Nice support early this morning tells me the stable have the colt spot on for today with almost three weeks between runs. Keen.
Comes up favourite after running only OK time in a weak on pace dominated BM4 on a Sunday at Ballarat. Her price surely has more to do with Mum (Black Caviar) than anything she’s done to date on the track. She lead and controlled last time which she should find harder to do here, I expect she’s challenged earlier in a much tougher test for her today up in grade.
Sixth up this prep and second go at 1600m, was luckless two back at the Valley then not suited last start. From a yard point of view, this horse is a favourite of mine and I expect peaks today. Smart stable and smart jock can make the most of friendlier draw today, I map Greviste to land 2-3 back likely fence in the run. I can’t have the favourite off its first up run in Australia.
He found fitness and form for Darren Weir last start stepping up to the 3000m at Moonee Valley and winning in dominant style by three lengths. He’s a grinding type ideally suited by these longer trips, evidenced by the fact that his three best ratings in the UK as a 3YO (prior to come to Australia) were over 2800m.
One these types find their form for Weir he has a great record at getting them to hold or improve their rating further, which is ominous for Yangtze’s rivals here. He’s already short in the market at $2.00, but profiles more like a $1.70 chance to me (note: that’s a 59% chance of winning not 99% chance), so the edge is certainly worthy.
She gets the blinkers on here but looks to have plateaued in her ratings at a level below the winning standard of this race and dropping back from 1100m to 1000m, I’m not sure she has the necessary sectional speed to make up ground from well off the lead and win. She’s not totally hopeless but at third-fourth pick in the market at $6 seems a long way under the odds. I have her two times that price.
His first up run was solid at Benalla when he had to chase from a mile back off a tearaway leader, covering a stack of extra ground before hitting the line well to run third. We only must go back to the Spring of last year when he was first up at 1400m and finished third to Royal Symphony with the second best final 200m rating in the race, beating home the likes of Showtime, Mighty Boss and Cliffs Edge.
He comes to this race fitter, second up over 1600m on a more suitable track and with the Blinkers on for the first time out of a stable (Price) that is absolutely flying. What that says to me is “potential for big improvement!” If he can progress to anything like his Spring 3YO form in this race, then he’s going to be very hard to hold out. Double figures odds in the current market (12-$13) is an appealing price to gamble.
I pegged this bloke as a minimum Saturday city class galloper following his eye-catching return at Ballarat and his two runs since have only enhanced that opinion of him. He ran sensational figures winning his maiden at Terang and had no luck at all from the ‘low draw’ at Moonee Valley. With one of the best ‘momentum’ jockeys in the business Dean Yendall on board and drawing to have clear air in the straight he should be winning here today on his way to bigger and better things later in the preparation.
This Weir-trained colt is well exposed fourth run in today and I think he could be vulnerable to some smart horses resuming. He draws the outside which as we saw by his last win here two starts ago is not necessarily a disadvantage for him, but I don’t think he would want to be giving talented types like Seven Year Reward and Vainstream much of a start today. They both trialled well and look to have plenty of scope for improvement resuming in their second racing preparations, so I think Holy Blade will have his work cut out beating them and is therefore a risky proposition.
This mare gets quickly to the 3000m third up today but as we saw again over the weekend with Harlem and Fanatic this camp just ‘get it’ right with their stayers. She was out well last prep with the dominant hurdle wins and last start at Moonee Valley ended up in an ordinary spot back on the rail, got held up early in the straight but found the line late when clear. In what could be a tactical affair the favourite Our Yangtze cops the ‘low draw’ giving its jockey plenty to ponder whilst this mare is another one who draws for clear air and momentum and I am expecting her to be in the finish.
Best horse in the race who from inside gate can race closer to speed today, his ‘SP profile’ is good, 1600m seems ideal. It’s a race full of jumpers resuming which leaves us with only a handful of horses here to win. The 5, 13 & 14 are suited here however with a positive ride early I think Peaky will be too good late.
“New trainer” free this prep and does its best work over more ground, surprised he is so short in the market, I couldn’t back at $3.8 so keen to Lay!
Can cross and lead from Barrier 11, which is perfect for it. Has run good times for a race like this and Semari form should be more than competitive here, at $8 it’s a great play in a race of few chances, Think Cathy is the other I will be winning on
It’s somewhat risky being keen on a first up runner off a 272-day break without getting some insight into the market intelligence as the race approaches, but there’s plenty that lines up here to suggest Vintage Quartz is nice value around $5.00 in current markets.
Two of her three career peak ratings came first up over 1100m and the other was second up. Each of those three figures are clearly better than what any of the opposition in this race have run previously and would almost certainly be good enough to win this race.
She’s had two good jump-outs leading into this race, one on January 12th and the other February 19th, so it appears as though she’s been in work for a while, steadily building up for her return. With that foundation laid and such dominant ratings from previous first up runs, I’m prepared to gamble at around the $5 mark that she’s going to return at least within 1-2L of that mark, which will make her very hard to beat here. The only thing that would perhaps sway me otherwise is if she was totally friendless in the betting market.
She has the flashing light on her here with Weir / Lane and a good closing effort from well back over 1400m last start. She’s certainly an improver, but has a number of lengths to make up to challenge the top chances in this race such as Connery, Han Xin and De Wrinkler, who themselves have plenty of potential to improve.
These types of Weir horses in lower grade Provincial races certainly win races, but there’s a strong history to show they’re overvalued in betting to the tune of 2 x the market average. With that in mind I’ll have to oppose Pelonomena.
She comes off a third last start in a very strong rating 1600m Maiden race at Benalla won by Semari, who is looks a horse well and truly up to city class races.
Apart from the quality of figures out of that race, I liked the way Jedah Aheadah was able to put herself into a good position early and was then strong over the last 50m, providing some substance behind her rating, which stacks up as very competitive in what looks a more average Maiden race here.
On the map there’s a clear lack of speed runners apart from Joie De Dream (1), so from Barrier 11 I expect Jedah Aheadah to push forward, work across to be up near the lead and enjoy a good run at below average speed. With her ability to sustain a strong final 400m sprint at the end of a mile, she can prove hard to run down and looks a nice value bet around the $7.50 in current markets.
This three-year-old has probably the best form lines of any maiden in the state and I think today is the day he can finally break through. He got too far back when resuming but hit the line hard in a race dominated from the front so today with that run under his belt and the blinkers going on I am hoping it equates to him being in a more positive position in running. His only run at 1600m he was arguably unlucky when narrowly defeated by the talented Civil Disobediance so if he runs up to that he should be winning. If he does happen to win, in the words of his famous namesake as Captain Marko Ramius in The Hunt For The Red October it will be “A great day comrades”.
This filly was scratched from a much easier assignment yesterday at Bendigo and I think the connections will end up regretting that decision. Getting deep into her first preparation she still does plenty wrong which is highlighted by the all the gear changes she has had with nose rolls and ear muffs not the sorts of things I warm to when doing the form for a horse early in their career. Going up to 1600m for the first time she has an awkward gate/map and faces some opposition who are racing well with figures at the distance so I think there are enough vulnerabilities today for her to be a risky proposition.
This guy showed some talent in his first preparation prior to changing stables and heading to Jarrod Mclean at Warrnambool where he has had sound runs back for the new camp. Today at peak fitness up to 1200m he gets a significant sign of intent with the blinkers going on and also gets gun jockey Jamie Mott back on board after running well for him first up. Whilst tardy away last time I expect him to be forward today and in a tricky little race he looks a pretty rock solid value play to me.
I’ve got a lot of time for this mare. She continues to parade in excellent order & with some improvement to come. She had no luck last time when posted after some in decision early from Thompson. Jamie Mott jumps on today, she’s back to mare’s grade, from draw with natural gate speed I expect she lands slightly closer in run. If she can, then can ‘close’ as she has been recently, she’s an excellent bet for mine. Miss Adequate does profile well for this race and I’m likely to ‘Dutch’ save it and Macattack pending the Mounting Yard parade.
Horrible last start when right in market, didn’t have easiest run but was still extremely weak late over 1200m. Now 1300m at $2.50 As I type. I couldn’t take near those odds off that run so keen to oppose him here.
33 days fresh after failing fresh but with genuine excuses. He’ll make his own luck on pace and gets Luke Nolen on today. I think she should be favourite. He’s beaten Nature strip, He’s a 1000m horse and should be very hard to catch.
He was disappointing last start but may not have appreciated the fast track.
His two previous runs however returned figures that above the average standard typically needed to win a BM64 and dominant over his opposition today, that otherwise make this a well below average race.
Horses with a strong last start SP, rebounding off a moderate run towards prior dominant ratings has been a profitable angle for me over the years and Trojan Storm fits firmly in that category.
She’s been okay in her last few runs at this trip, but with 61kg here her ratings are comfortably short of the standard that is likely needed to win this race, with a few others ranked ahead of her. She can be competitive, and I can see the market has reacted strongly to her terrific record at this track, but those stats are typically overvalued. On the strength of her recent form I can’t have her anything close to the $5 in the current market.
She found form at Colac over 1200m last start when a close 2nd in an above average rating BM78 race, with a rating that stacks up strongly back to just an average BM70 here.
What I like is that she has strong previous form references to say that last start run was no fluke and that she can repeat today. Last preparation in April 2017 she was a Saturday class winner at Caulfield and then beaten 1.7L in Listed Grade in Adelaide, both over this distance of 1400m with ratings that are right up to the winning standard of this race. With an on-pace running style Plenty To Like looks a terrific value prospect, currently around $6-$6.50 in the market.
I tipped this filly to run well at odds first up in a much stronger race and she certainly did that. Today I like her barrier, I like the blinkers going on and I like the jockey change to Beau Mertens. Whilst the 6 weeks between runs is not ideal, her sharp jump out with those blinkers on last Friday morning suggests to me she is in good enough order to register her first win here.
I couldn’t believe when I looked at the market and Ensisheim & Indrabeel had gone up similar odds as in my opinion this fillies form is much inferior. A limited conveyance by the name of Wujimu ran straight past her when resuming at Ballarat and I don’t think that lines up well against the Royal Symphony/Stylish Missile form lines that Indrabeel possesses, so therefore am happy to risk.
This bloke had some good runs early on behind nice horses like Esperance & Sully but has obviously taken some time to mature. Now in his third preparation he looks to have really hit his straps firstly by knocking over his maiden and with the two sound runs since They ran decent time last start at Wodonga where he had to do the chasing and that form has stood up well with the 3rd horse Blazers coming out and bolting in at its next start.
A lightly raced “conveyance” this gelding by All Too Hard out of the Hawkes camp, steps 1200 to 1440m today third up, with pedigree and parade I think 1400m will suit and horse has not yet reached its peak (condition wise, this preparation). Over And Above brings the best lead in figures and some of the best closing splits, has more upside than most of these. Main threats #8 Paret and #16 I Have Arrived who seems big odds, BLK first time, Tamasa form is good form. Over And Above was $4.00 at 9am, whacked into $3.4 quickly which I think is closer to the mark.
Comes from Maiden grade in a slower time than most here and comes up favourite? Brad Rawiller jumps off for Jordan Turner who gets to claim 1.5kg. Had the perfect run in weak Ballarat race where they walked early.
Smart win last start at Pakenham in good time, Noel Callow gave her a great steer there and we get Craig Williams on today. Can position up better than midfield today. Form this prep around Pleasuring and Keen which is solid for a race like this. Whilst she steps up from maiden grade it is only fillies & she brings near best figures to it.
Comes off a solid second placing at Terang last start in a very strong rating Maiden race, stamped by fast overall time and good sectionals, with the form well and truly holding up. Her run had plenty of merit, giving away seven lengths start and running home well with the best sectionals in the field. Second up here jumping to 1600m from a better draw to settle a couple of lengths closer is an ideal scenario for her to progress to a new peak.
It’s a tough day to find lays in the market, but I’ve settled on Florida Pearl. She was a plain second over 1400m last start when given every possible chance in a moderately run 1400m race on her home track, where she has typically raced very well and rated much higher. Two of her three runs this prep have now been well below the standard needed to win this race and the only other time in her career she went to her fourth run in a prep she also rated down. I do concede that on her best form she can win this race, but that last start run does not seem like a good platform stepping up to 1600m here, especially when unproven this deep into a preparation. $5.50 in current markets looks poor value.
She was just fair over 1600m last start at Sandown Hillside, but did have support ($10 into $8.50) off a moderate rating debut win, so there’s certainly a perception of more talent than we’ve seen so far. Now third up at her third start today and history clearly shows that it’s at this point and beyond in a preparation that Weir horses start to hit their peak. The key is that this is not an especially strong race, so any level of improvement is likely to put So You Leica right in the mix. Add to that the fact that Brad Rawiller sticking with her after also riding the stablemate and current favourite Think Bleue last start and there’s a couple of solid reasons to speculate at good odds in the market.
This talented three-year-old has been super in his two runs to date and I think this race suits him perfectly today. What I like about this horse is that he possesses three factors I value highly as a punter. Firstly, he goes forward, Secondly, he has good acceleration and Thirdly he is a ‘line finder’.
The Hawkes runners also generally improve with a run or two under their belts so with plenty in his favour today I am expecting him to be very hard to beat.
I am asking for trouble making a Darren Weir improving 3-year-old off good sections last start a lay, but I just feel that from gate nine with the awkward map it has a bit of a task today. I thought the big spacious Sandown straight where he had time to balance up suited him last start particularly coming off a tight track on debut. Being so lightly raced he is still a bit green and developing his racing manners and it’s a totally different conundrum today around Caulfield with the rail +14m so I think there are enough negatives for him to be vulnerable.
This filly resumed in her second preparation with a sound effort in a good race at Ballarat that tells me she is in for a good campaign. I expect her to roll forward today which will be an advantage with the rail +14m whilst some of the favourites look to settle in the second half of the field. With natural improvement off that first up run I expect her to give her backers a good sight at nice odds.
Rock hard fit now fifth up and can peak here in a drop back in grade. Will be out of trouble from a wide barrier and with pace drawn inside him should get across for Ben Thompson. Would prefer a jockey change but still think he’ll be very hard to beat.
Hard to understand why she’s so short in the market here. Rises in trip and what looks to be stronger company despite still in BM78 class. Her best figures are at the mile and she wasn’t that dynamic last start.
Higgins to Ethan Brown a perfect switch. Down in grade from a very good race when resuming. I like the way he presented in the yard on that occasion. I expect the horse to be better over further than 1200m but at $17 in this event is worth an each-way bet.
Apart from one poor run at Caulfield, his other three runs this preparation (including his last two) have been particularly good, all of them returning ratings that put him comfortably on top of this field. I particularly like that in his last two starts he’s shown more early speed and has been ridden closer to the lead, resulting in a solid third in a strong race won by Twilight Song and then a big 4L win when dropping back to a Pakenham maiden last start.
Although drawn Barrier 7, he looks to map well here following Bowerman across to settle near the lead again, which I expect will provide an advantage with the way the track is likely to race.
Currently sits at $6.50-$7.00 third choice in the market and while that’s hardly a red-hot chance to pot, I do have her marked twice that price and a standout poor value runner. Her last three runs have been plain and she’s likely to settle back here on a track that is likely to be more suitable to on pace runners. Add to that the fact that the two best chances in the race look likely to settle near the lead and this looks a very tough challenge for Young Hostess to try and turn her form around. She’s well under the odds at the moment.
She improved sharply last start, equally her career best figure when winning by four lengths at Mornington in particularly good overall time. Anything close to that run here puts her right in the finish of this race and while a repeat off a 44 day freshen is a natural query, it’s worth noting that the Laming stable is flying and does have a particularly good fresh record from their limited runners. A positive ride from the inside draw should see her lead this race and if the track is favouring front runners, she can give a big sight at nice odds.
Following a sound debut at Moe back in August, this four-year-old resumed with a terrific effort at Pakenham. Never on the track and raced greenly but still managed to run a game second. With that run under his belt he should be forward in what could be a messy little race if the masters of the ‘anchor drop’ Dwayne Dunn & Michael Walker happen to get control of the tempo. Most of his opposition today are either resuming or looking for more ground so I think it’s a good opportunity for Jacky Paper to get his first win.
This colt resumed in his second preparation with an OK effort where he railed all the way in a pressure race at Pakenham. Whilst much fitter for the run I think he maps ordinary today in what looks to be a completely different race shape and is a risk under those circumstances.
This bloke is fourth up today and should finally be a peak fitness for this assignment. He was half fit but still bolted in first up, ran into a nice horse second up in Knight Commander and then needed the run in the distance range last start in a race they ran good time in. Whilst I appreciate the factor of the bush jockey ‘The Golden Greek’ Stan Tsaikos is a negative it does go forward and seems big odds to me at the $21+ in the early markets.
Fifth up this preparation and now surely ready to peak. Won well and was brave at this track and distance two starts back. Last start at Flemington I noted: “Did stack of work early and needed the run”. He is an on pacer who makes own luck and should be suited today. Almost three weeks between runs should have him in great order and hard to run down.
Talented horse, who could be in for exciting prep, in my opinion however she is a genuine stayer and will find this decent maiden way too short, there are two decent sprinters here in Musuta and over and above who should fight the race out.
Tongue Tie on for the first time, Liam Riordan to Craig Williams switch is a big tick. Fourth up with a senior Jock who can find good spot forward and prove hard to catch. The Weir stable have Peaceful State resuming which is very scary here and if forward in condition will be hard to beat.
I liked his debut back on 17/1 in the first twilight meeting at Caulfield when second to Twilight
There’s no doubt he’s the most talented horse in this race, so I’m opposing more on ‘race scenario’ rather than ability. First up here from the Weir stable with Autumn carnival targets in mind, I’m sure he’ll be one or two runs short of his peak and from a wide draw I’d imagine he’ll be ridden conservatively, especially with 60kg as a mid-season 3YO against older horses.
It will take a big effort to give this field 4-5 lengths and pick up with the weight to run them down and while it wouldn’t surprise me if he did it, I can’t find him anywhere near $3.00 currently on offer in the market.
This is not a strong race at all, with all the top market chances have either a query about their rating credentials or coming off a questionable last start run. That makes it a good race to speculate on a longshot and the one that looks most likely to me is Atlantic Express at around $15 in current markets.
He ran okay third up over 1600m at Caulfield last start when beaten 1.8L, but what I like in the 12 months prior he’s had seven runs at the mile and returned a rating in five of them that can potentially win this race.
I’m gambling on him improving to that level again here, but from Barrier 2 he looks like getting an ideal run up near the lead, which will give him every possible chance.
After showing good talent at the Flemington jump outs I thought this filly was outstanding on debut at Caulfield. She covered a bit of extra ground and raced greenly but still managed to reel off good sectionals right through the line to score. Looks to have plenty of ‘X’ factor to me and should be winning again today on her way to stronger assignments during the Autumn.
This filly is resuming off a lengthy break and will need the run today. Her only run was over 1400m, so this will be too short for her. With two smart horses Masuta & Over And Above in the race I think she is well under the odds around the current quote of $5.
A horse this deep in a preparation is not normally something that appeals to me but when it comes to an ‘in form mare’ then it’s another story. Since having a five week freshen up back in November this Mare is racing in great heart. She bolted in at Werribee and has had little luck her past two runs but today with good speed on and top jockey Craig Williams aboard for the second time I can see her rounding them up.
There was a bit to like about his last start run at this track where he worked early in a strongly run 1600m race, travelled up stylishly in the straight and then just peaked over the final 150m. That performance presents him with the best recent performance rating in the race, supported by clearly the best overall time rating. With the potential to rate even higher here back to a more moderately run 1400m with an easier run in transit, he looks a rock solid favourite with a respectable betting edge around the $2.50 mark.
She overachieved at 20/1 SP last start when 1.8L 4th to Magnesium Rose at Caulfield. That rating is certainly very competitive here, but the influence of that SP and the fact that all of her other runs are well below the standard needed to win this race sets her up as a runner that seems more likely to regress, rather than hold or improve her rating. That combined with the fact that inside drawn pace runners have historically been poorly suited at similar meetings in the past makes her seem well under the odds at $4.60 in current markets.
Her last start run over 1800m at Caulfield looks plain, but she was poorly suited by a very slow pace and pulled up lame with a slow recovery rate. Prior to that she was racing well, with a 1600m win at Bendigo and then 0.3L 4th over 1600m at Caulfield which gave the impression that 1800m could be more suitable. If she was to run up to either, of those ratings then she would be in the finish of this race and a slight improvement up to 1800m can certainly see her win. There’s always some uncertainty coming off a poor last start run, but the Weir stable has hit a hot run with their metro runners in the past couple of weeks (11 wins from past 33 +66% POT), which provides some confidence Rising Hope can bounce back and at $13 in current markets the price is certainly right to gamble
Black Booked from Flemington when good very good behind Sohool (Who has since failed). I marked the horse as almost at top from the yard and keen to back it next start on the prevision that it came up in the right race. I think he finds a very winnable race here and horses should be at no disadvantage coming off the rail and swooping tonight. I think at $5.00 it is a great bet.
I cannot get this horse near $2.6. Looks closer to a $3.8- $4.00 chance for mine with a difficult setup looking at the speed map, will be well back and need luck.
Has been a costly conveyance this preparation, last start led them along at brutal pace and folded up late. My mounting yard notes were “At top, backed heavily, brutal race and could peak next start off that run with three weeks”. There is a small chance the horse is over the top off its last run but provided a strong parade and holds in condition it may have brought the horse right on.
This Darren Weir trained mare is racing in great form and I am confident she will run out a strong 1400m today at her first go at the distance. She was too far back her last couple of starts but with the positive jockey change to Damian Lane I am hoping he can land her in a much better position today ahead of her main danger Weapon and prove very hard to run down.
This filly ran OK on debut at Yarra Valley in what first appeared to be a strong race but times can be deceiving at that particular track. With the winner of that race, ‘Penalty’ failing yesterday and other beaten runners out of the race not exactly setting the world on fire at their next starts. I doubt that form is strong enough to beat the likes of Hermanito in this race.
This lightly raced mare looks a progressive staying type and I thought there was a lot to like about her last start win at Geelong. Whilst I concede, the favourite did not compete after throwing the jockey at the start, the way she went about it I think she would have won anyway. In the right stable and with an in form jockey on board I expect Corrs to be hard to beat today.
He has had no luck at his last two starts and should be suited by the small field today. Prior to his last two runs he was rating figures that give him a clear edge over this opposition. He should break his Maiden status today.
This field is very evenly matched and the Waterhouse/Bott trained 4YO is yet to run a figure that normally wins this class of race. There are quite a few others that have so it’s hard to find Potentate at the price.
He should be fit enough after three runs back from a long spell and he rated well at Sandown on 10/1 behind Mutarakem over 1800 metres. He steps up to a favourable distance today and has been able to carry big weights in the past.
I was really impressed with this horse when I first saw him at Pakenham. Fourth up back to a mile suits, he ran third last start weakening late over 1712m to Mr Churchill who ran very well last Saturday at Flemington. He maps to get an easy lead and Stephen Baster should control on a track, which I think, will favour leaders. Baster must be wearing the spurs for me to ‘bet up’. (Watch for in yard!)
First up today on after 111 days off and one reasonable jump out a Caulfield. Yet to win out of maiden grade despite some very short SP’s. He is a ‘get back, run on’ style of horse who finds excuses more often than he finds the line. He has featured in the Stewards report six of his last seven races, has the lowest win strike rate in field 12.5%.
Third up down in grade ($100k BM84 mare’s race at Flemington to this $30k BM70 against the males. Expecting Ben Thompson to be proactive and land the mare in first few pairs on settling, the race lacks early speed horses and any natural leaders. The Betfair market will likely let us know via a drift or firm with the market usually pushing hard for leading horses. She brings the best lead in figure to the race and only Cannot Be Serious has a better peak run in last two years. I think she represents great value and presents as a great trade horse (Back with a Corporate then lay on Betfair), she was $17 at 9am I think she’ll start much shorter.
The lone 3yo in this field had shown good talent in his first preparation and resumed in the very strong Nature Strip race at Sandown where he had no hope but stuck on soundly. He should race more forward, appreciate the step up to 1200m here and with gun jock Damien Lane having his second ride on the colt I think he will be hard to beat today.
This colt ran well on debut at Stawell in what I originally thought to be a solid form race. With the winner, Black Mosheen failing yesterday and the third and fourth horses also running below expectations at their next runs now I am not so sure. It is quickly up in distance to 1400m against some nice horses kicking off their careers and autumn campaigns so I am happy to oppose.
In what appears to be a moderate staying affair this looks to me to be the horse going places. He savaged the line late at Sandown in a good maiden and then bolted in at Geelong in a fast run race. The main query is the 41 days between runs but this trainer does things a bit differently so happy to give the benefit of the doubt and think he will race well again.
He has his foot on the till with two close seconds at his latest two runs. Last start he didn’t have much luck finding a run early in the straight and then hit the line well when clear, to just fail behind Simply Splashing at Sandown on December 30. He has consistently rated figures which give him an edge over this field.
He resumed from a short 47 day break at Caulfield on Boxing Day and found a little trouble but was only fair in finishing fourth behind Pravro. That day he rated a similar figure to his past ratings and that puts him behind a good portion of this field. He looks no value at the current price.
He has been racing very consistently this preparation without breaking through for a win. He should get a nice drag across at the start, following the likely leader Ransom Money and looks to get a great run just behind the pace. With the right run he looks to be very hard to beat.
This horse has been on my radar ever since showing good talent winning his first two starts. It was a sound return off a freshen up here on Boxing Day and with the better map, up 100m in distance and gun jock Damien Lane having his second ride on the gelding he will be hard to hold out today.
Well ridden to blend away from a low draw out to the better ground last time at Sandown. With the rail +12m I am not sure the inside will be the best place again today so it finds itself in a similar conundrum and I am happy to risk.
This filly resumes for her autumn campaign and I think she is one to follow. She has shown talent but raced greenly in her first two preparations. I have been happy with her jump outs this time in and am hoping she has developed and will progress to a decent level. Should get a good run from Barrier 6 and be strong late so I think she is worth a throw at the stumps today at the big odds.
I have followed this horse closely this preparation and feel he likely peaks today from a yard point of view. His SP profile reads well. He goes inside gate to outside and gets a jockey switch. From that draw, I expect Ben Thompson will roll across to be OSL, or one back 1 off the fence.
47 days fresh and I will be laying him. A poor parade and market drift will only enhance my confidence. 3yo Colt in semi hot stable who is yet to run any decent times. If he has improved lengths, hopefully we can see that in yard but I suspect as a colt they have bigger aims for it than a Wednesday at Caulfield.
This mare should be nearing peak fitness today mapping to get soft lead, she brings some solid form into this and does not need luck. Jockey sticks here which I like, expect to see spurs on in parade, which will ‘green light’ the bet for me.
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