For 10 weeks Racing Victoria will trial a new twilight racing series with an additional meeting each Wednesday. Betfair has engaged three top Professional Punters to battle it out each week with a focus on these meetings. The winner will be crowned Tri-Light Champion.

Our three punters will give their best BACK (3 unit bet), LAY ( risking to lose a 1 unit) and Value (1 unit bet) selection with winner returning the best ROI for the 10 week period.

 

Leader Board After Week 7 

1st – Jack Dickens

2nd – Daniel O’Sullivan

3rd – Dan Kelly


Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag - dickosmailbag.store - Youtube MailBagTV - 1st Place

Jack primarily focuses on Mounting Yard Assessments for Victorian Racing, he puts each assessment into a database which along with detailed video and sectional time reviews (puntingform.com.au). This process allows Jack to identify key horses to follow. Jack has provided form-based betting plans to clients for over three years.  Jack’s Mounting Yard Mail & MailBag-Movers products are available via dickosmailbag.com Jack & Drew Patchell @theprofits provide a weekly preview & review YouTube show for Vic Racing.

BACK – R7 #10 Our Peaky Blinders

Best horse in the race who from inside gate can race closer to speed today, his ‘SP profile’ is good, 1600m seems ideal. It’s a race full of jumpers resuming which leaves us with only a handful of horses here to win. The 5, 13 & 14 are suited here however with a positive ride early I think Peaky will be too good late.

LAY – R6 #5 Ceder Grande

“New trainer” free this prep and does its best work over more ground, surprised he is so short in the market, I couldn’t back at $3.8 so keen to Lay!

VALUE – R4 #6 Jeddah Aheadah

Can cross and lead from Barrier 11, which is perfect for it. Has run good times for a race like this and Semari form should be more than competitive here, at $8 it’s a great play in a race of few chances, Think Cathy is the other I will be winning on


Daniel O’Sullivan - @TRBHorseRacing – Betsmart.racing - 2nd Place

Daniel first attended the races as a 20yo and found himself quickly immersed in Don Scott’s books and racing paper’s such as the Sportsman. With an analytical mind he was quickly focused on times and ratings looking for edges within the market. Daniel developed a database and ratings system and has been a professional punters for over 15 years. He’s now the Director of Betsmart Racing and The Rating Bureau where he educates, analyses races and provides intelligence to a broad spectrum of customers in the racing game.

BACK –  Race 5 #3 Vintage Quartz

It’s somewhat risky being keen on a first up runner off a 272-day break without getting some insight into the market intelligence as the race approaches, but there’s plenty that lines up here to suggest Vintage Quartz is nice value around $5.00 in current markets.

Two of her three career peak ratings came first up over 1100m and the other was second up. Each of those three figures are clearly better than what any of the opposition in this race have run previously and would almost certainly be good enough to win this race.

She’s had two good jump-outs leading into this race, one on January 12th and the other February 19th, so it appears as though she’s been in work for a while, steadily building up for her return. With that foundation laid and such dominant ratings from previous first up runs, I’m prepared to gamble at around the $5 mark that she’s going to return at least within 1-2L of that mark, which will make her very hard to beat here. The only thing that would perhaps sway me otherwise is if she was totally friendless in the betting market.

LAY – Race 3 #9 Pelonomena

She has the flashing light on her here with Weir / Lane and a good closing effort from well back over 1400m last start. She’s certainly an improver, but has a number of lengths to make up to challenge the top chances in this race such as Connery, Han Xin and De Wrinkler, who themselves have plenty of potential to improve.

These types of Weir horses in lower grade Provincial races certainly win races, but there’s a strong history to show they’re overvalued in betting to the tune of 2 x the market average. With that in mind I’ll have to oppose Pelonomena.

VALUE – Race 4 #6 Jeddah Aheadah

She comes off a third last start in a very strong rating 1600m Maiden race at Benalla won by Semari, who is looks a horse well and truly up to city class races.

Apart from the quality of figures out of that race, I liked the way Jedah Aheadah was able to put herself into a good position early and was then strong over the last 50m, providing some substance behind her rating, which stacks up as very competitive in what looks a more average Maiden race here.

On the map there’s a clear lack of speed runners apart from Joie De Dream (1), so from Barrier 11 I expect Jedah Aheadah to push forward, work across to be up near the lead and enjoy a good run at below average speed. With her ability to sustain a strong final 400m sprint at the end of a mile, she can prove hard to run down and looks a nice value bet around the $7.50 in current markets.


Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan - Watch Dan on Darren Potter Race Assessments on YouTube - 3rd Place

Dan’s career began his in his early twenties working as a clerk for leading Melbourne Rails Bookmaker Anthony Doughty. Anthony does his own form and creates his own price ratings which peaked Dan’s interest in wagering and before too long he started buying the same videos and began his journey into form & video analysis. In 2008, Dan joined Mark Read’s IAS as a video analyst on Hong Kong races which honed his skills even more, before moving into full time form analysis and trading on Victorian races. IAS merged with Sportsbet following the Paddy Power takeover and soon after Dan decided it was time to have a go out on his own. Since that time Dan has been a been a full time punter ever since.

BACK – Race 3 #1 Connery

This three-year-old has probably the best form lines of any maiden in the state and I think today is the day he can finally break through. He got too far back when resuming but hit the line hard in a race dominated from the front so today with that run under his belt and the blinkers going on I am hoping it equates to him being in a more positive position in running. His only run at 1600m he was arguably unlucky when narrowly defeated by the talented Civil Disobediance so if he runs up to that he should be winning. If he does happen to win, in the words of his famous namesake as Captain Marko Ramius in The Hunt For The Red October it will be “A great day comrades”.

LAY – Race 4 #12 Zebreez

This filly was scratched from a much easier assignment yesterday at Bendigo and I think the connections will end up regretting that decision. Getting deep into her first preparation she still does plenty wrong which is highlighted by the all the gear changes she has had with nose rolls and ear muffs not the sorts of things I warm to when doing the form for a horse early in their career. Going up to 1600m for the first time she has an awkward gate/map and faces some opposition who are racing well with figures at the distance so I think there are enough vulnerabilities today for her to be a risky proposition.

VALUE – Race 2 #7 Voiceover

This guy showed some talent in his first preparation prior to changing stables and heading to Jarrod Mclean at Warrnambool where he has had sound runs back for the new camp. Today at peak fitness up to 1200m he gets a significant sign of intent with the blinkers going on and also gets gun jockey Jamie Mott back on board after running well for him first up. Whilst tardy away last time I expect him to be forward today and in a tricky little race he looks a pretty rock solid value play to me.


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