Tri-Light Series: Week 6

For 10 weeks Racing Victoria will trial a new twilight racing series with an additional meeting each Wednesday. Betfair has engaged three top Professional Punters to battle it out each week with a focus on these meetings. The winner will be crowned Tri-Light Champion.

Our three punters will give their best BACK (3 unit bet), LAY ( risking to lose a 1 unit) and Value (1 unit bet) selection with winner returning the best ROI for the 10 week period.

Leader Board After Week 5

1st – Jack Dickens

2nd – Daniel O’Sullivan

3rd – Dan Kelly

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag - - Youtube MailBagTV - 1st Place

Jack primarily focuses on Mounting Yard Assessments for Victorian Racing, he puts each assessment into a database which along with detailed video and sectional time reviews ( This process allows Jack to identify key horses to follow. Jack has provided form-based betting plans to clients for over three years.  Jack’s Mounting Yard Mail & MailBag-Movers products are available via Jack & Drew Patchell @theprofits provide a weekly preview & review YouTube show for Vic Racing.

BACK – Race 8 #14 Over And Above

A lightly raced “conveyance” this gelding by All Too Hard out of the Hawkes camp, steps 1200 to 1440m today third up, with pedigree and parade I think 1400m will suit and horse has not yet reached its peak (condition wise, this preparation). Over And Above brings the best lead in figures and some of the best closing splits, has more upside than most of these. Main threats #8 Paret and #16 I Have Arrived who seems big odds, BLK first time, Tamasa form is good form. Over And Above was $4.00 at 9am, whacked into $3.4 quickly which I think is closer to the mark.

LAY – Race 5 #8 Think Bleue

Comes from Maiden grade in a slower time than most here and comes up favourite? Brad Rawiller jumps off for Jordan Turner who gets to claim 1.5kg. Had the perfect run in weak Ballarat race where they walked early.

VALUE – Race 5 #12 Shootoutatdawn

Smart win last start at Pakenham in good time, Noel Callow gave her a great steer there and we get Craig Williams on today. Can position up better than midfield today. Form this prep around Pleasuring and Keen which is solid for a race like this. Whilst she steps up from maiden grade it is only fillies & she brings near best figures to it.

Daniel O’Sullivan - @TRBHorseRacing – - 2nd Place

Daniel first attended the races as a 20yo and found himself quickly immersed in Don Scott’s books and racing paper’s such as the Sportsman. With an analytical mind he was quickly focused on times and ratings looking for edges within the market. Daniel developed a database and ratings system and has been a professional punters for over 15 years. He’s now the Director of Betsmart Racing and The Rating Bureau where he educates, analyses races and provides intelligence to a broad spectrum of customers in the racing game.

BACK – Race 2 #12 Sopressa

Comes off a solid second placing at Terang last start in a very strong rating Maiden race, stamped by fast overall time and good sectionals, with the form well and truly holding up. Her run had plenty of merit, giving away seven lengths start and running home well with the best sectionals in the field. Second up here jumping to 1600m from a better draw to settle a couple of lengths closer is an ideal scenario for her to progress to a new peak.

LAY – Race 4 #5 Florida Pearl

It’s a tough day to find lays in the market, but I’ve settled on Florida Pearl. She was a plain second over 1400m last start when given every possible chance in a moderately run 1400m race on her home track, where she has typically raced very well and rated much higher. Two of her three runs this prep have now been well below the standard needed to win this race and the only other time in her career she went to her fourth run in a prep she also rated down. I do concede that on her best form she can win this race, but that last start run does not seem like a good platform stepping up to 1600m here, especially when unproven this deep into a preparation. $5.50 in current markets looks poor value.

VALUE – Race 5 #2 So You Leica

She was just fair over 1600m last start at Sandown Hillside, but did have support ($10 into $8.50) off a moderate rating debut win, so there’s certainly a perception of more talent than we’ve seen so far. Now third up at her third start today and history clearly shows that it’s at this point and beyond in a preparation that Weir horses start to hit their peak. The key is that this is not an especially strong race, so any level of improvement is likely to put So You Leica right in the mix. Add to that the fact that Brad Rawiller sticking with her after also riding the stablemate and current favourite Think Bleue last start and there’s a couple of solid reasons to speculate at good odds in the market.

Dan Kelly –  @winbetdan - Watch Dan on Darren Potter Race Assessments on YouTube - 3rd Place

Dan’s career began his in his early twenties working as a clerk for leading Melbourne Rails Bookmaker Anthony Doughty. Anthony does his own form and creates his own price ratings which peaked Dan’s interest in wagering and before too long he started buying the same videos and began his journey into form & video analysis. In 2008, Dan joined Mark Read’s IAS as a video analyst on Hong Kong races which honed his skills even more, before moving into full time form analysis and trading on Victorian races. IAS merged with Sportsbet following the Paddy Power takeover and soon after Dan decided it was time to have a go out on his own. Since that time Dan has been a been a full time punter ever since.

BACK – Race 8 #14 Over And Above

This talented three-year-old has been super in his two runs to date and I think this race suits him perfectly today. What I like about this horse is that he possesses three factors I value highly as a punter. Firstly, he goes forward, Secondly, he has good acceleration and Thirdly he is a ‘line finder’.

The Hawkes runners also generally improve with a run or two under their belts so with plenty in his favour today I am expecting him to be very hard to beat.

LAY – Race 2 #6 Mujaadil

I am asking for trouble making a Darren Weir improving 3-year-old off good sections last start a lay, but I just feel that from gate nine with the awkward map it has a bit of a task today. I thought the big spacious Sandown straight where he had time to balance up suited him last start particularly coming off a tight track on debut. Being so lightly raced he is still a bit green and developing his racing manners and it’s a totally different conundrum today around Caulfield with the rail +14m so I think there are enough negatives for him to be vulnerable.

VALUE – Race 2 #10 Haylin Rouge

This filly resumed in her second preparation with a sound effort in a good race at Ballarat that tells me she is in for a good campaign. I expect her to roll forward today which will be an advantage with the rail +14m whilst some of the favourites look to settle in the second half of the field. With natural improvement off that first up run I expect her to give her backers a good sight at nice odds.

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