Trentham: Saturday 18th March 2017 – New Zealand Oaks

R8 New Zealand Oaks G1 3YOF SW 2400m

Tempo: Average

Major Players

1. Bonneval: The race favourite after winning her past two starts. She overpowered the Fillies in the Sir Tristram Stakes at Group Two level over 2000m. Followed up when lunging at Savvy Dreams on the line in the Little Avondale Stakes, Group 3 at 2100m. Rising to 2400m now suits with her determination to win a great sign of class looking at how strongly she went through the line last start.

2. Dreamcrafter & 3. Dame Margo Fonteyn: Both horses finished behind Eleonora (second and third) who would have been the race favourite for the NZ Oaks had she not sustained an injury this week. Both the runners had good runs in transit and fought very well in the straight going down between 0.2L (Dreamcrafter) and 0.8L (Dame Margo Fonteyn). I can see them both running good races however they were both so evenly matched when going across the line I could not split them and therefore have decided to bypass them both on this occasion. It looks such an evenly matched field.

4. Nicoletta: Has been leading up the field at her past two starts and only going down in the final stages over the 2000m & 2100m. She lacks a turn of foot, which on one hand says she’ll be better placed getting over the Oaks trip of 2400m, while on the other hand she keeps running into horses who are finishing over the top of her late. At this point, I would have to pass on her unless there becomes so advantage to be on speed.

6. Date Night: Is the ‘new form’ to a certain extent coming from the Sunline Vase at Ellerslie where she had excuses with interference in running. The other run I liked was the Eight Carat Classic where she finished in front of Devised and not far back from winner Volpe Veloce. She looks set to find the favourites back and if she gets a soft cart into the race, she can be a surprise packet late.

10. Fashionably: She’s the real danger to Bonneval after losing the favourites back approaching the turn before maintaining a two length margin over the concluding 200m in the Little Avondale Stakes. 150m after the post she had run past Bonneval, indicating the step out to 2400m could be ideal. Looks a great chance at good odds.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Bonneval 8 units at $2.50 or more

 BACK (WIN) Fashionably 3 units at $9 or more

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