Golf Prediction Model

The Data Scientist’s Golf Model identifies the best value BACK and LAY bet opportunities across the majority of PGA Tour events.

The Model uses a deep set of variables which are updated weekly, seeking form players whose strengths suit particular courses.

US Open

Shinnecock Hills in upstate New York hosts the season’s second major this week. Since last hosting the event in 2004, the course has grown 444 yards and lost basically all trees, putting it firmly in links territory. With so little cover, weather could be a massive factor here. However given it’s proved near impossible find a consistent forecast this week, we’ve gone mostly on model prices for the tips, with a sprinkling of GIR and scrambling. We’ve dug right into the card and have come up with no less than six big value plays.

Over the odds

Henrik Stenson

Elite driving and top flight scrambling combined with loving the tough courses? Stenson absolutely jumps off the page even before considering the hefty overlay on offer.

BACK – Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

The Englishman’s form has up there with the best of them this season – OK maybe not quite DJ or JT standard… but he’s paying a solid $55 bucks (and has dropped $15 while I’ve been typing this up!)

BACK – Paul Casey

Steve Stricker

A favourite of this column, the Strick probably doesn’t have what it takes to win, but does have what it takes to trade below his current $210 price.

BACK – Steve Stricker

Emiliano Grillo

Another who loves a struggle, the Argentine has been in great form of late, with four top 10s in his last 10 starts. Has a very solid all round game, the only knock is his scrambling which may hurt him given the near 100 bunkers in play.

BACK – Emiliano Grillo

Ian Poulter

The Englishman loves the tough courses and this week is looking like anything below par might get the job done. Recovered nicely since a couple of missed cuts early in the season.

BACK – Ian Poulter

Charles Howell III

The man hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire but his four top 10 finishes this year show he can put four rounds together. Will only take on good one to trade below his lengthy current price.

BACK – Charles Howell III

Under the odds

Tiger Woods

The feel-good pick and we would’ve loved for him to show up short in the model output, but just too much quality in the field to justify his short price. His driving has been all over the place and this isn’t a course you want to be missing the fairways on.

 LAY – Tiger Woods

Branden Grace

The market has a strangely long memory of his incredible run of form in the Majors a couple of years back. Unfortunately his performances recently just haven’t been good enough for him to be this short.

 LAY – Branden Grace

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