Golf Betting Tips: Prediction Model

Betfair’s Golf Betting Prediction Model provides golf betting tips for the PGA and European tournaments. The data science tool rates every player’s probability for a particular course. It knows the strengths of each player, pulling data from PGA Tour Stats, and what courses they suit. As well as recent form and a variety of other metrics.

You get golf betting tips, and complementing copy, each week on the Betfair Hub. Plus you can see the model outputs for every player. Compare those with the odds on the Betfair Exchange and you’ll identify value betting opportunities. Both to Lay and to Back.


Last Week’s Recap

In what was a surprisingly entertaining contest, organisers got very creative with pin positions to pose a decent challenge to the cream of the Euro crop. Rory looked like he was going to walk it in before he collapsed on the back nine while Collin Morikawa went full Terminator to run away with both the tournament and the year-long Race to Dubai. It caps off an unbelievably good year for the youngster which included a Major victory and a WGC title.


This Week’s Event

The lack of a break before the start of the 2022 campaign caught us napping, but we’re straight back into the action as the Euro heads down to South Africa for a three week stint leading into the Christmas break. Not surprisingly, it will be a second-string field dominated by local talent as the big names take a well earned break after a very busy 2021 schedule – even defending champ JB Hansen has chosen to put the clubs down!


The Course

The host for this week’s Joburg Open will be the Firethorn Course and Randpark Golf Club. We’ve seen a little bit of the track after it took over hosting duties in 2017 and while there is plenty in the way of hazards, they haven’t stopped players posting some pretty low totals. With that said, the final three holes of the 7,506 par-71 are absolutely brutal so we’d suggest hedging out if you’re holding the leader’s ticket down the stretch.

While long the distance is somewhat ameliorated by the altitude and with tree-lined fairways and water hazards the norm across the track, it’s accuracy off the tee that becomes the key to success.


Weather

Conditions are looking pretty difficult over the four days, with high winds and a bit of rain about. We’d expect the course to play a fair bit tougher than prior years as a result


Betting Strategy

It’s a pretty rare event that Dean Burmester comes in as a $12 favourite but there’s a distinct lack of quality in the field and he’ll be getting a bump for being a local boy. We think he’s a little short. We think this is a great week to target some really long shots so we’ll be scattering our bank across a number of relative unknowns.

Julien Brun

We’ll admit we had to look up the Frenchman as we don’t pay much attention to the Challenge Tour other than the stats. He’s posted a couple of Ws already this year and should like his chances here.

BACK (WIN) — Brun for 0.3 units at $55+

Ricardo Gouveia

Another Challenge Tour regular, he also has two wins to his name in 2021 so he knows how to get it done.

BACK (WIN) — Gouveia for 0.2 units at $75+

Hugo Leon

This was the only one of the names we were familiar with as Leon plies his trade on the top-tier Euro Tour. While he hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire, he’s had a few top 20s and will relish the weaker competition this week.

BACK (WIN) — Leon for 0.1 units at $85+





Current Results

Biggest Winners

2021 ISPS Handa Word Invitational — Daniel Gavins at $140

2019 Andalucia Masters — Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $140

2021 Sony Open — Kevin Na at $70

2020 Sanderson Farms Championship — Sergio Garcia at $65

2020 Genesis Invitational — Adam Scott at $38

2020 RBC Heritage — Webb Simpson at $30

2020 Memorial Tournament — Jon Rahm at $25


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