Below is a plot to show how “accurate” the BSP is. The diagonal is the ideal case. The BSP follows the diagonal for most cases, except where the sample size is small (> 85% BSP – horses priced >$1.175).

The sample below is the output using Australian Thoroughbred data collected from 1st Jan 2013 – 19th July 2017. Only considering races where the BSP overround is >= 95% and <= 110%, resulting in 75,650 races.

As demonstrated below, the Betfair SP is the most accurate predictor of probability. This graph implies that:

  • $2 shots (50%) – win at very close to 50% of the time.
  • $5 shots (20%) – win at very close to 20% of the time.

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