FEATURE PREVIEWS: TJ SMITH STAKES

The TJ Smith Stakes is a G1 race won in recent years by Nature Strip (3 times), Chautauqua (3 times), Santa Ana Lane, Lankan Rupee & Black Caviar! Dean Evans of Winning Edge Investments provides his TJ Smith Stakes tips, historical data, speed map, race analysis and betting strategies available on the Betfair Hub now!

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Dean Evans

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T J SMITH STAKES

Heavy rain forecast Thursday to Saturday.

Outstanding G1 race won in recent years by Nature Strip (3 times), Chautauqua (3 times), I Wish I Win, Santa Ana Lane, Lankan Rupee, Trapeze Artist & Black Caviar!

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

1^st/2^nd up (1/44), 3^rd up (7/58), 4^th up (4/23), 5^th up+ (0/14)
7-day break (1/7), 14-day break (1/51), 21-23-day break (4/28), 28-35 day break (6/28), 40+ day break (0/16)
Leader/2nd (4), Settled 3rd-6th (3), Settled 9^th-15^th (5)
Barrier 1-4 (5/48), Barrier 8-12 (7/46)
3yo (1/22), 4yo (3/35), 5yo (2/33), 6yo (5/27), 7yo+ (1/22)
Geldings (9/83), Colts (1/13), Fillies (0/8), Mares (1/20), Entires (1/15)
Tab Number 1-3 (9/36)
Last Start Distance 1500-1600 (2/7), 1300-1400 (0/12), 1200 (6/55), 1100 (1/49), 1000 (3/16)
Gear Change (0/12)
James Mcdonald (3/9), Tommy Berry (3/9)
Chris Waller (3/6), Hawkes (3/8)
Favourite Last Start No (5/144), Yes (7/25)
Finishing Position Last Start 1-3 (11/65), 4-5 (1/26), 6+ (0/48)
Finishing Position Second Last Start 1-4 (11/89), 5+ (1/50)
Last Start Finishing Position 2L+ win (3/6), Under 2L loss (8/81), 3L+ loss (1/52)
Last Start Track Flemington (5/32), Randwick (4/21), Rosehill (2/61), Moonee Valley (1/17)
- Average Prizemoney Index (API) $9-$60K (1/72), $70K-$100K (6/48), $200K+ (5/19)
- Official Handicap Rank 1 (5/12), 2-3 (4/24), 4-9 (3/69), 10+ (0.34)
- Official Handicap 80-90 (0/9), 100 (2/63), 110+ (10/67)
If we combine analysis of the TJ Smith G1 1200m at Randwick with the Everest which is also a major 1200m race at Randwick in the Spring, from the last 12 years (19 races), 12/95 have won 3rd up and 5/34 have won 4^th up. Only 2 horses have won 2^nd up. 1^st/2^nd up horses only 2 winners from 78 runners. No horses have won either race first up.

SPEED MAP

Coal Crusher should lead with Magic Time, Cylinder, and Imperatriz all handy.

Chain Of Lightning, Willinga Beast and Sunshine In Paris can settle forward of midfield.

Mazu, Private Eye & Bella Nipotina caught wide and need to slot in.

Johnny Rocker & Aft Cabin back of midfield.

I Wish I Win, Buenos Noches & Espiona out the back.

TJ SMITH STAKES | KEY RUNNERS

1. I Wish I Win – We successfully backed him heavily to win this race last year. Golden Eagle winner prior and ran 2nd in The Everest last start. First up in this race is a big challenge.

5. Aft Cabin – Had no luck in The Galaxy. Ran well first up. Has run very well at this track/distance and on wet tracks previously. Could be the knockout at odds.

8. Imperatriz – 19 wins from 26 starts including 10 wins and 2 close 2nds from her past 12 starts. The obvious favourite.

9. Bella Nipotina – Grows a leg in the wet and last time she had those conditions won the Manikato by 5L. Has been racing consistently well for a long time. The wet track brings her right into this race.

10. Espiona – Another who is racing well and handles the wet. Can certainly figure here.

11. Sunshine In Paris – 4 wins and 3 close placings from her 7 starts. G1 winner who was 2nd beaten a nose in The Galaxy last start. In the mix.

12. Cylinder – Impressive winner of the Newmarket two starts ago. Was poor at Moonee Valley last start. Forgive that and he is right in this.

13. Magic Time – Talented mare. Only second up here which is the challenge, but has the ability to give this a shake.

SUMMARY

Bella Nipotina loves the wet. If it’s heavy looks the one to beat.
Aft Cabin and Espiona can win this at odds.
Cylinder, Magic Time, I Wish I Win & Sunshine In Paris can all be competitive.
Imperatriz a strong chance but must bet around her at the prices.