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BEST BACK
Gosford | R1 #2 Judge Judi
Now trained by Kim Waugh & having her 2nd run her as well as it being the horses 2nd up run. She is currently 2 from 2 2nd up & judging by her 1st up 2nd placing over 1400 at Kembla 14 dyas ago, where after racing on the pace, she was narrowly btn by Myprayer & in good figures, it did nothing to say she won’t make it 3 from 3 here.
1600 around here should suit, she will race on pace, or lead in race that won’t be run at any tempo. Zavance is a danger, but it doesn’t jump the best & will most likely be giving JJ a start, which if pace isn’t on, may be a touch difficult to do.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Judge Judi
BEST LAY
Corowa | R7 #1 Yousay Bolt
He is by far & away the best horse in the race, so he has no dangers on ability, his danger is the Corowa track, it is a massively on pace biased track & there is a chance that Yousay Bolt gets crossed more than once early, if he does, then he will be in traffic needing a bit of luck.
He had his 1st race start over this C&D, didn’t jump the best, was well back all the way & never looked likely. To back at 1.25, you want C&D to be perfect, not just have them covered class wise.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Yousay Bolt
BEST BACK
Muswellbrook | R1 #4 Beaufort Park
Horse has only raced once & it was a total forgive run. It was over 1300 at Goulburn, where it was slowly away, then well back all way to turn & then held up all the way in the straight until 50m from home to run 7th of 13 btn 2.14L.
If it leaves the gates on terms with the field, it will race on pace & is the horse they will have to beat. It has firmed from 5.00 overnight, into current quote of 3.1. If he jumps I think he is closer to a 2.25 chance.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Beaufort Park
BEST LAY
Muswellbrook | R2 #2 Healing Hands
Has only had 1 race start & it was for what looked a fairly impressive win, it was over 1010m at Dubbo, where it was wide in run, around midfield to turn, then ran on well to by 1.25L, but he was the widest in the straight, which was the best going on the day.
He steps up to 1280 here, but doubt that is as much a problem for him, as is the class rise, as this looks a fairly strong C1 line up opposed to him. 31 days between runs is also a slight concern, so at 2.35 that he is currently, does look a short.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Healing Hands
BEST BACK
Orange | R7 #12 Bush Rambler & #7 The Long Run | 5:30pm
Bush Rambler
Even though he is a maiden with only 1 run under his belt & taking on C1 race here, I think he did enough in running 3rd btn just over 1L by Elenara at only start, it was over 1000m here, where he missed the jump & was back with the winner all the way, came widest on turn, but still went to line as well as the winner. Concern is the start, but does get G.Ryan up today & jumps from gate 1.
The Long Run
Has only had 4 starts, for a fair 6th here behind Indicators over 1000m, when wide all the way, then won maiden at non tab meet. Then 5th to the smart Jetgirl over 1100 at mudgee, then last run was 2nd to Music Miss over 1200 at Warren, where it was 3 & 4 wide the whole way, yet still worked to line to be btn 1.47L into 2nd place.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Bush Rambler (2 units) and The Long Run (.5 units)
BEST LAY
Orange | R6 #7 Perigod | 4:50pm
He is probably the best horse in the race & is being ridden by leading country rider G.Ryan, so has plenty going for him so far, but what I think is against him, is the step up from 1100m to 1400m.
Has had 3 runs for a 3rd over 1000m at Kembla, then two 2nds both over 1100m, one at Mudgee then last one behind Exceltic at Gosford, so form easily strong enough against this moderate opposition.
In all 3 runs he showed early speed, but also raced keenly early, so I expect he does the same here & possibly over-races even worse as it’s over 1400. So current quote of 1.70 looks a bit skinny when distance is a big query.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Perigord
BEST BACK
Kembla | R4 #7 Soir De Lune
Last two runs both at this track and distance, where it over-raced in both, yet only beaten 2.6L two runs back & 1L last run. Drawn to get a nice run tracking the speed & if strips fitter here, then looks fair EW value at current quote of 31.00.
NB Last 2 runs were for new stable, so hopefully horse has settled in & they have him close to his peak.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Soir De Lune
BEST LAY
Kembla | R2 #5 Emshalky
Horse is 3rd up here off 2 forgive runs, both were over 1300m. She is a winner over 1400 at this track, where rider wanted to settle midfield, but was trapped 3 wide & pace slowed, so he rolled to front, set slow pace & she held on.
She tends to over-race early, also she’s had 1 try over this distance, where she did over-race early & then did little in the straight. All of her opponents will run the 1600 whereas she may struggle to run it out strongly, hence early quote of 3.50 looks a bit thin.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Emshalky
BEST BACK
Inverell | R6 #1 Bullseye Score & #3 Mellore
This horse was very good 1st up from a spell in leading all the way over this distance at Taree & recording very good figures in doing so. He then went to Moree over 950, where from a wide gate was 3 & 4 wide duelling for the lead, he boxed on well to run 3rd btn 1.03L. Back up to the 1000m here, he should find rail early.
If they attack him in front, then Mellore will be the horse running over them, so a saver on him.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Bullseye Score 2 Units
BACK (WIN) Mellore 0.5 Units
BEST LAY
Kensington | R2 #3 Smiling Manolito
Has led & walked in lead at last 3 runs for two 2nds & a last start win, all be it a bit lucky as 2nd horse should’ve won clearly. Not sure he gets it as easy in front here & there are 4 or 5 horses that can win, aslo some are of them are on pace & some off, so no matter the tempo, some of his dangers will be suited. For those reasons, 3.20 looks a bit thin
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Yalanji
Betfair is a low margin exchange, just like Airbnb. We create markets for punters to take on punters. And we want winners.
Dec 20
BEST BACK
Goulburn | Race 1 | #1 Only Choice
This is a far inferior field to his last run, which was in a C3 Highway, where nothing went right, he was back & wide the whole way, still worked to line ok.
From gate 1 in the small field, he will be within striking distance & 1400m is his ideal trip, will just need rider to get him off rail as the track is a Soft 5 & the rail is normally the worst going when track is rain affected.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Only Choice
BEST LAY
Goulburn | Race 2 | #8 Yalanji
Was a fair winner of maiden at Canberra over 1000m 1st up, then ok in running 4th over 1100 at Mudgee 2nd up. This race looks to have a fair bit more depth to it than last races he contested, with 3 or 4 live chances against him.
Newtown Is Coming has a good chance, has won 4 races, but with the apprentices claim, only gives Yalanji 2kgs. Yalanji looks short at current quote of 2.45
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Yalanji
Dec 18
BEST BACK
Armidale | Race 2 | #11 In Ya Skyrocket
Only had the 1 start for a very good 4th over 1006 at Port Macquarie, where he went head & head with Miss Powerbelle, he boxed on very well to be btn just over 1L in a race that was solidly run & returned good figures. This track will suit & with no Miss Powerbelle engaged to go with him early, he looks the horse to beat.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) In Ya Skyrocket
BEST LAY
Armidale | Race 1 | #4 So Good To Me
Always a touch risky laying a horse that looks to get the box seat run & from gate 1 she should get it fairly easily. She will be sitting on one of her dangers in Sunny Afternoon, who she beat home last start, but SA did a bit of work to get to lead from wide draw & then set a fast pace to knock up over the last 150m, but SA jumps from gate 2 here, also the track & distance will suit her better, which will mean SGTM will have to do the chasing as opposed to SA coming back to her like last start.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) So Good To Me
Dec 13
BEST BACK
Warrnambool | Race 3 | #3 Madja
Progressive mare who was a strong maiden winner, tipped out and resumed off a 38 week spell. Trialled up very well leading into her 1st up run where she set a hot tempo and boxed on very well to be beaten 1/2 length by one who had a charmed run in behind.
Out to 1200m perfect off that run. She should be able to cross, dictate and is the one to beat.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Madja
Warrnambool | Race 5 | #7 Delightful Cat
Delightful Cat was bursting for a win when taking out a BM58 over this trip 20 days ago. I’m not sure she leads these with a couple drawn outside her capable of pressing. But she does have options; if gifted, take it up or make the two work to cross her.
She looks well set up given either scenario. If they over do it up front, the two coming home strong will be Magna Carta and Splashette. Happy to be with Delightful Cat EW at the current quote.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Delightful Cat
BEST LAY
Warrnambool | Race 1 | #6 Wild Moon
Granted he doesn’t have much to beat but he has had every chance his last two over 1350 and 1400m. Last run, had the leaders back in running and boxed on fairly to be beaten just under a length. Better suited at 1500m to the mile off that run and I couldn’t entertain the red odds available.
The first starter Sandman has jumped out well enough on two occasions and is much more enticing at double figures.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Wild Moon
Dec 11
BEST BACK
Wagga | Race 2 | #4 Miss Crompton & #5 Cherro
#4 Miss Crompton has only had the 1 start, was over this C&D for a very good 3rd btn just under 1L. She was a fraction slow away, showed good speed to be the widest in a line of 4 into the 1st turn, then raced head & head with another runner all way to turn, then got headed at 200, where she was entitled to knock up, but she boxed on well to the line.
#5 Cherro is making debut off a fair trial at Tatura 21 days ago. Has come up with gate 1 & should be able to get a nice run on speed, with the concern being she was a touch slow away in trial.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) 4. Miss Crompton for 0.75 units
BACK (WIN) 5. Cherro for 0.25 units
BEST LAY
Wagga | Race 4 | #2 Olifants
He is a speed horse that has drawn the outside gate in a race where there are 2 other speed horses engaged, so if he is going to cross, he will be setting a fast pace which won’t enable him to be strong late. He has been run down in easier fields than this one. He doesn’t just have 1 danger, there are 3 or 4 of his opposition that can win & will relish a fast pace. Currently 4.40, which looks very very short.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Olifants
BEST BACK
Gosford | Race 3 | #7 Laguna Mountains
Won its maiden 11 days ago over this distance at Goulburn at only his 2nd start in a race, now stepping up to a C1 at the provincials, but his win was very impressive, he raced on the speed in solidly run race, yet he was still very strong to the line, suggesting he has more wins in store. Rubino Veloce may be worth a small save for the place.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Laguna Mountains
BEST LAY
Gosford | Race 1 | #9 Nivalis
That Song & Impurity have run better races in far stronger maidens than she has & I think she will be lucky to beat one of them home, let alone both of them. That makes her current quote of 3.70 very skinny.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Nivalis
BEST BACK
Scone | Race 3 | #7 The Sparkle Legend
Is making his debut, has had plenty of experience though, as he has trialled on 4 occasions & shown a bit of ability in all 4. He has a good draw, should hold an on pace spot. Danger looks to be Fort Jackson & apart from him, it looks a fairly average line up.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) The Sparkle Legend
BEST LAY
Scone | Race 5 | #10 Power Transformer
Horse has only had the 1 start, it being in a 1550m maiden at a Canterbury night meeting 18 days ago & although dropping from city maiden to a country maiden, he did very little when the pressure was applied in last 400 & was basically btn as they turned for home. Besides the winner of that race, the others are pretty ordinary conveyances. He is currently 4.60 which looks a bit short.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Power Transformer
Nov 29
BEST BACK
Wyong | Race 4 | #7 Enjoy Elsie
Her 1st prep consisted of 1 trial & 1 race. She trialled quite well to run 3rd btn 1.8L in good time, then 11 days later she had her 1st race & again went quite well to run 3rd btn 2.3L by the handy Royal Witness.
She is 1st up here off a very nice trial where she jumped to front & gapped them in fast time. A repeat of that should see her do the same here.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Enjoy Elsie
BEST LAY
Wyong | Race 5 | #6 The Seven Falls
Have been against this bloke at his last 3 runs where he was btn in two ordinary country maidens both at Orange & both over 1600m. In between those he ran 3rd in a 4yo+ Newcastle maiden over 1850.
He can over-race in the early to mid stages of a race & with the step up to 2100 there is a good possibility he does again, which won’t help him late in the race. This is a C 1+ Mdn Plt & stronger than his previous 3 runs, so he looks a bit short at current quote of 3.00.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) The Seven Falls
Nov 27
BEST BACK
Port Macquarie | Race 8 | #3 Red Cupcake & #6 Lingalonga Lass
Red Cupcake was impressive winner of its maiden over this C&D 12 days ago, it was her 1st race start, she jumped ok from wide gate, eased back to 3rd line travelled strongly to turn & then hit the line well in fair figures. She should settle similar position here & think she’ll be hard to hold out again.
Lingalong Lass was also an impressive winner of her maiden two starts back, then was just fair 2nd up. She has a positive rider change today, should find the early lead & be the horse to run down.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Red Cupcake
BACK (WIN) Lingalonga Lass
BEST LAY
Port Macquarie | Race 8 | #4 Complete Faith & #5 Bearly Thinking
Complete Faith was ok winning over 1100 at Grafton, where she got to line well, so don’t think the drop back to 1000 will suit.
Bearly Thinking has only won one of 20 starts & it was over 1200, she is another not well suited at the 1000m.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Complete Faith
LAY (WIN) Bearly Thinking
Nov 22
BEST BACK
Queanbeyan | Race 6 | #5 Hercegovka | 5:50PM AEDT
She is an 8yo mare that has found a new lease of life winning her last two starts, 2 back she won a non tab BM over 1400 at Tumut, but did space the field, then came here over 1200m, where she did a bit of work OSL until crossing to front about 700m out, then boxed on well to win.
She steps up to 1460, but with C&D stats of 7: 2-2-1, it’s a positive if anything, also she handles the wet. If they leave her lead on her own, she will be very hard to run down.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Hercegovka
BEST LAY
Kensington | Race 5 | #2 Discussions | 5:30PM AEDT
He led all the way over 1300m here 22 days ago & recorded a fair win, but he was left alone in the lead. The same won’t occur here as there is a bit of early speed in it, so he won’t get things his own way, also tempo will be quicker here & he also has an inexperienced 3kg apprentice riding today.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Discussions
Nov 20
BEST BACK
Dubbo | Race 7 | #1 Fine Hero | 4:50PM AEDT
He was a very impressive winner 1st up over this distance at Orange 11 days ago. He was close to 3L off lead at 600, improved 4 wide around the turn & when the girl asked him for an effort in the straight, he put paid to them in a couple of strides. If the girl can give him a fair ride in this, then he should be very hard to beat again.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Fine Hero
BEST LAY
Dubbo | Race 6 | #5 Worldly Pleasure | 4:15PM AEDT
Won her maiden at her last start, it was over this distance at Orange, he led most of the way, beat an ordinary line up & recorded ordinary figures in doing so. Considerable class rise here, so will need to have improved a few lengths to trouble these. Current quote of 4.60 looks very short.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Worldly Pleasure
Nov 15
BEST BACK
Port Macquarie | Race 2 | #5 Wild Sheila | 1.50PM AEDT
She was good at her 1st race start over 1200m at Tamworth, where she was last of 7 to turn, then had to change course a couple of times in straight & still worked home well. Stepping up to 1500 at her 2nd race start looks ideal. If the girl can give her a good steer, I think she is the horse to beat & fair value at current quote of $4.50.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Wild Sheila
BEST LAY
Port Macquarie | Race 8 | #3 Total Power | 5.30PM AEDT
Won his maiden at 1st run over 1200m at Tamworth 17 days ago, where he led all the way setting a moderate tempo, so race couldn’t have been run more to suit, also the opposition was quite ordinary. Up to C1 race here & not a bad one at that, this field is far superior to what he beat at Tamworth. Even if he finds the front here, his dangers will be right on his tail. He looks quite short at current quote of 2.80
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Snippets of Rain
Nov 13
BEST BACK
Quirindi | Race 5 | #6 Princess Pattern | 4.35pm AEDT | save #7 Velaro
She will get back, so will need a little luck, but she does know how to hit the line, there looks a bit of pace i the race, with Dreamnomore sure to roll across from the outside gate, also Apache Lad & Disgraceful should be on pace in run. Hardest to beat will be the fave Velaro, who should get a nice run in transit in a stalking position & he will appreciate dropping back to 1600 & also the dry surface.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Princess Pattern for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) Velaro for 2 units
BEST LAY
Quirindi | Race 2 | #10 Snippets Of Rain | 2.40PM AEDT
Will most likely lead, but isn’t the strongest conveyance & there looks to be a couple of handy maidens in it, in Supreme Streak & Resinite, who have both only had the 1 start for a 3rd placing each & neither had the best of luck in transit.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Snippets of Rain
Nov 8
BEST BACK
Randwick | Race 3 | #5 Round of Applause | 1.00pm
He has only had the one start, resulting in a fair 3rd just under 1L behind Restrained (Who won again last Saturday) over 1200 at Newcastle 17 days ago.
He settled in 3rd running line on the fence, raced a bit keen in transit, then had to change course in straight, but still hit the line off only a moderate tempo. Looks a fair EW play at current quote of 17.00.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Round of Applause
BEST LAY
Randwick | Race 1 | #2 Orcein | 11.55pm
This is his 5th run up, he won off a perfect ride in a pretty ordinary maiden line up over 1600m 2nd up. Was fair at his next two starts. He isn’t the most tractable horse, as he has a high head carriage & can also over-race in run.
He is stepping up to 1800m for the 1st time, so there is a good chance he may over-race early here, which will be detrimental to him in the latter stages of the race. He is currently the race fave at 4.00 which looks quite thin considering his 6 opponents all have winning chances.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Orcein
Nov 6
BEST BACK
Randwick | Race 3 | #5 Round of Applause | 1.00pm
He has only had the one start, resulting in a fair 3rd just under 1L behind Restrained (Who won again last Saturday) over 1200 at Newcastle 17 days ago.
He settled in 3rd running line on the fence, raced a bit keen in transit, then had to change course in straight, but still hit the line off only a moderate tempo. Looks a fair EW play at current quote of 17.00.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Round of Applause
BEST LAY
Randwick | Race 1 | #2 Orcein | 11.55pm
This is his 5th run up, he won off a perfect ride in a pretty ordinary maiden line up over 1600m 2nd up. Was fair at his next two starts. He isn’t the most tractable horse, as he has a high head carriage & can also over-race in run.
He is stepping up to 1800m for the 1st time, so there is a good chance he may over-race early here, which will be detrimental to him in the latter stages of the race. He is currently the race fave at 4.00 which looks quite thin considering his 6 opponents all have winning chances.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Orcein
Nov 1
BEST BACK
Sapphire Coast | Race 2 | #2 Gorush Lightning | 2.25pm
Has raced on pace in all of his 6 starts, with most of them being solidly run affairs, steps up to 1608 for 1st time in a race with no other speed in it, s he should find the front without much effort here & if left to control tempo, should be hard to run down.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Gorush Lightning
BEST LAY
Gosford | Race 5 | #3 Rare Episode | 3.55pm
He gapped a maiden field over 1100m here at his 1st start on a Heavy track, but figures weren’t great on the day. He then went to Wyong over this distance, where he looked home turning but tired the last 100m to be btn .9L.
The equal fave in this race is Coterie who is drawn directly outside him & who was an impressive winner of his maiden at Wyong 21 days ago. He was 4 wide in line of 4 for lead early, rider eased back, still wide improved from 600, joined lead 4 wide at 400 & came away late to record a strong win. His form is overall stronger than that of Rare Episode & think he should be the fave.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Rare Episode
Oct 30th
BEST BACK
Grafton | Race 1 | #7 Bromach | 1.20pm
Is stepping up to this trip for first time, but he is a last start 2010m winner at Coffs Harbour where he was strong to the line. Run before was 1900m at Armidale where he ran on ok for third off slow tempo. Has hit form as his distances have increased. He comes in on the limit weight, just want him to settle in run and he will be hard to beat.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Bromach
BEST LAY
Stawell | Race 1 | #6 Mischa | 1.30pm
Small field with four first starters and the raced Mischa resuming. She wasn’t disgraced in handy races in her first prep and has jumped out fairly leading into this. I don’t think she is without good competition in the Weir pair, both who have jumped out smart enough to win this. Fairy Song, one of the Weir pair, was sharp and composed. For that reason I’m going against Mischa.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Mischa
Oct 25th
BEST BACK
Hawkesbury | Race 1 | #8 Polhampton | 1.20pm AEDT
He is 1st up from a spell in this, had 2 runs last prep, 1st was one over 1000m he missed the kick, was near last to turn & worked to line ok in a race dominated by 1-2-3 in run.
He then went to midweek over 1200, jumped better from wide out, but was eased back racing a bit keen, went 4 wide turn to only plugged home to be beaten by 4.6L.
Had 1 trial leading into this where he was leaders back well on the bit, so from gate 2 he should race handy in a race that doesn’t have much in it. 14.00 EW looks fair odds.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Polhamton
BEST LAY
Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #1 and #11 All the Wine and Banjos Voice | 3.10pm AEDT
All The Wine is lining up for his 29th start still a maiden & even though this is a prov/ctry restricted maiden, it looks a bit strong for him. 5.50 looks short
Banjo’s Voice has led them up & not been real strong late, last run was 1280 at Orange, where he did do a little work to cross & lead, but tempo was only average, he would’ve finished closer had he not veered into rail & put in a couple rough strides in straight, but was an ordinary ctry mdn. 4.40 looks short as well.
Wild Kingdom & Lexi’s Choice are the 2 hardest to beat.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) All the Wine and Banjos Voice
Oct 23rd
BEST BACK
Muswellbrook | Race 6 | #5 Sunday Swindler | 4.20pm AEDT
He is 1st up in this, he goes well 1st up, handles a rain affected track, races on pace, all positives for this race, as it looks like it will be moderately run, which won’t suit the fave Yambaah Prince as he gets back.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Sunday Swindler
BEST LAY
Muswellbrook | Race 2 | #10 Macal | 1.55pm AEDT
She has had 4 runs this prep, from 1100 to 1250, she hasn’t looked a like a 900m horse in any of them. She has had a freshen up from winning a trial 25 days ago, but it it in slow time. The unraced fave has trialled better than it.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Macal
Oct 18th
BEST BACK
Moe | Race 9 | #13 Botti | 5.10pm
Botti had his Australian debut over 1755m at Geelong and class prevailed. Traveled, held up in the straight, once out, really knuckled down to win smartly. Step up ideal and was nommed for Saturday but they’ve elected to come here. He’ll be closer in running from the rails draw, a touch of luck when it matters and he looks to have a bit on these.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Botti
BEST LAY
Moe | Race 8 | #3 Royal Ace | 4.35pm
Sat closer last start over the mile and was only shaded late by a pretty smart one in Mahamedeis. He’s drawn barrier 7 of 9 here with a bit of speed under him and will need luck slotting in.
If they elect to go back and they over do it up front, he still has to get past others with strong finishes in Top Of The Range and Bad Wolf, who I think will both be more forward and get softer runs runs than Royal Ace today. Given the above, even money seems much too skinny to consider.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Royal Ace
Oct 16th
BEST BACK
Newcastle | Race 5 | #3 Front View | 4.20pm
His 2nd to Carano over 1600m at Gosford on 14/8 was a very good run, then had 6 weeks gap until 28/9 where he trialled over 1200 at Gosford, he went very well in open trial running 2nd to Sense of Occasion & looked to trial better than it. looks a fair price. The closer to a Good 4 rating, the better his chances. 7.00 ew
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Front View
BEST LAY
Newcastle | Race 1 | #3 Shadow Bridge| 1.50pm
Although this horse has trialled well on 2 occasions leading into this, he did race a bit hard in his last one. Another concern is it’s been 25 days since last trial, making it 39 days since 1st trial, quite a long time for a horse going into a 900m race. I also have a doubt about him finding lead as horse in gate has speed & the 2nd fave Paris Lights, aside from missing the jump, she went quite well in her trial 21 days ago & think she is the horse to beat if she jumps away with them.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Shadow Bridge
Oct 11th
BEST BACK
Wyong | Race 8 | #8 Celer| 5.25pm
He was very good in running 3rd to Power Rush beaten 1.26L 1st up over 1000m here 18 days ago. He looks to get a solid speed to follow. If the inside is fine come the last, then save on Sophiella.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Celer
BEST LAY
Wyong | Race 1 | #7 Segalas | 1.05pm
Only had the one start, it was over 1200m here 18 days ago, where it had every chance sitting OSL in a slowly run race. It hit the lead turning and got run down to be beaten 1L. If it handles the Heavy, it will be hard to beat, but you don’t want those queries when taking 1.85.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Segalas
BEST LAY
Wyong | Race 5 | #3 Fast Train | 3.35pm
This looks a risky lay as the horse couldn’t have been more impressive in destroying a maiden field by 6.33L over 1800m at Hawkesbury 21 days ago. He was on pace in a fast run race and had it won before the turn, but he also over-raced for close to the 1st 1000m. If he over-races again here with an extra 300m to travel and on a heavy track, he may be vulnerable late. For those reasons I think 1.85 is a touch short.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Fast Train
Oct 9th
BEST BACK
Goulburn | Race 3 | #4 Maid in Milan | 2.25pm
Looks to lead at her leisure here, has only had 2 race starts & went well in both. 1st one she was chasing the smart Mansa Musa over 1100 at Gosford. She then stepped up to this distance at Bathurst for a narrow win, but it was more impressive than it looked, as she, jumped well then half got shuffled back to midfield when rider grabbed, overraced for a couple hundred metres in race that tempo suited leaders.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Maid in Milan
BEST LAY
Goulburn | Race 7 | #3 King’s Peak | 4.50pm
His paper form is the strongest in the race, but I think it’s a touch flattering. 1st start was in a maiden a lot stronger than this one, but he only plugged away to run 5th of 8 btn over 5L on a Soft 7. 2nd run he ran 2nd in a weak maiden at Kembla, where he ran on from well back, but race was fast run, winner did a good job to lead all the way, he ran on due to winner getting tired in run to line & not to mention they came home in slow figures.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) King’s Peak
Oct 4th
BEST BACK
Wangaratta | Race 3 | #13 Lecture | 2.30pm
Going with the first starter Lecture here in what looks a maiden that lacks much depth. Has been very sharp in recent jump outs, showing good early speed and in the most recent, getting to the line with a bit still under her.
She should cross from the barrier to sit handy to the speed and I think she’ll be very hard to beat. Her current quote seems more than fair.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Lecture
BEST LAY
Gosford | Race 7 | #3 Spin Bowles | 4.50pm
He is an average conveyance & been beaten in weaker races than this one. His 1st up run was ok, when he ran on from well back to run 3rd btn 3.25L to Cyclonite over 1000m at Hawkesbury, but flattered by the fast pace.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Spin Bowles
Oct 2nd
BEST BACK
Coffs Harbour| Race 3 | #3 Gunnaza, save on #6 Super Tonic | 2.40pm
Gunnaza should find the lead fairly easily here, exactly how you want a short course leader to find lead. If he does find it easy, he will hard to run down. 1000 is his best distance & his stats at this C&D are 4:2-1-1.
Save on his danger, the fave Super Tonic, who is 5 from 10 & 1 from 1 at C&D. She should be fairly handy in run being 1st up & the small field will suit.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Gunnaza
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Super Tonic
BEST LAY
Nowra | Race 1 | #4 Graterra | 1.50pm
1st starter from a good stable & comes up with barrier 1, but that may not be enough. He has had 2 trials, the 1st ordinary, 2nd was a bit better but still not real flash. The horse drawn next to him, Commissioner has better race form than Graterra has trial form & is the horse to beat.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Graterra
Sep 27
BEST BACK
Hawkesbury | Race 8 | #9 Happy Partner | 5.20pm
He is coming into this off what looked a below average run last start, it was over 2100m at Gosford, he was well off pace in a moderately run race, he made his run 750 out, loomed up on turn, then only plugged on the last 200, but rider dropped his whip there & horse basically ran to line under his own steam.
He is back to 1800 here, where he as acquitted himself well previously & the Soft 7 track will suit him, whereas it won’t all of his opposition. At 21.00 he looks value on an ew basis.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Happy Partner
BEST LAY
Hawkesbury | Race 5 | #5 Another Shadow | 3.25pm
It was our back last week and was beaten the nose in the last bound at huge odds. Today it steps up from 1100 to 1300, which may not suit as well. Also the field is a fraction stronger & she is only 4.00.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Another Shadow
Sep 25
BEST BACK
Grafton | Race 2 | #4 Smokin Suzy | 1:45pm
Smokin’ Suzy is resuming here, her previous form is only average. She ran third in trial, where she was beaten over 9L, but she wasn’t let go. The winner of the trial was Cheat’m, is a fast horse that’s won three races & he was ridden along the lat 150m. Smokin’ Suzy has drawn a nice gate, in what looks an average maiden field & at around the 19.00 mark, looks a fair ew play.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Smokin Suzy
BEST LAY
Mildura | Race 7 | #2 Solsay | 4:30pm
Solsay comes up quite short here considering he was gifted the win last start this C&D. The field was pushed wide by a rogue runner and he avoided congestion to sneak away. He is drawn outside a bit of speed making him vulnerable in running and I don’t think carrying the extra 2kg he will be able to pick them up if they elect to settle worse than midfield.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Solsay
Sep 20
BEST BACK
Hawkesbury | Race 3 | #5 Another Shadow | 2:10pm
Her form on paper is terrible, but this is a very ordinary maiden race that is restricted to provincial & country trained horses. Even though she was beaten 6.5L 1st up over 1300m here, she was wide all the way in a solidly run race, she also overraced in it, suggesting drop back to 1100m should suit it better.
With C.Brown to do the steering today, she should get every chance & is worth an EW ticket at 34.00.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Another Shadow
BEST LAY
Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #2 Grand Soleil | 2:40pm
This horse has its share of ability, but is its own worst enemy, the way it gets head up & overrraces early in its races. She did it two runs back over this distance at Taree & got away with the win. She did work early there so was still fairly impressive, but looked better than it was as tempo wise, on pace was place to be.
She has a top rider in Avdulla up today & if he can settle her, she will be hard to beat, but doubt he will be able to.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Grand Soleil
Sep 18
BEST BACK
Kembla Grange | Race 7 | #2 Ligulate | 4:40pm
She was fair in winning first up here over 1000m, then up to this trip at Randwick 14 days later, where she was eased back to near tail early. Was wide all the way and still worked home well to be only beaten 2.9L into sixth place.
Hopefully from gate 1, her rider is a touch more positive and has her closer in run.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Ligulate
BEST LAY
Kembla Grange | Race 6 | #2 Veranes | 4:05pm
The race has fallen away due to scratchings and now not a lot of depth to the race, but I don’t think there is a lot of depth to Veranes either.
She hasn’t done a lot in her two runs in NSW, her last start third at Wyong over 1200m was only average and in average figures. At the current quote of $1.60, shes too short.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Veranes
Sep 13
BEST BACK
Grafton | Race 6 | #9 Manhattan Road | 2:45pm
This horse is currently way too long in the market at around 71.00. He is second up here and his second up form is ordinary. However, so is his first up form. Did run a nice closing fifth first up over 1250m at Kempsey 19 days ago, where he worked home well late off a moderate tempo. He has raced against and beaten better company than this.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Manhattan Road
BEST LAY
Grafton | Race 2 | #11 Jahez | 12:25pm
An ex Godolphin horse, starting for the first time under racing conditions here. It led all the way to win a trial in average fashion over 1006m here 12 days ago. Now lines up in a fairly strong looking maiden and at current price of $6.00 it looks very well found.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Jahez
Sep 11
BEST BACK
Tamworth | Race 3 | #2 Maui Princess | 2:10pm
You could make a case against a horse that was an odds on pop, beaten over 5l by a 33/1 outsider at its last run, but she got too far back from her draw, ran on well late to run 2nd, after going very wide on home turn, while the winner led all the way and ran excellent figures in doing so.
Today’s race is an extra 200m in distance, she is drawn in closer, which will enable her to settle closer to speed, both big positives. Autumn Ridge has trialled up nicely and worthy of a small save to ‘chop out’ on if it wins.
Betting Strategy
BACK (WIN) Maui Princess
BEST LAY
Tamworth | Race 5 | #5 Hammoon Bridge | 3:25pm
She’s had two starts for its new trainer, both this distance and both good runs. She led at a solid speed on both occasions. The first time run down at Quirindi to be beaten .75L by Albert of Monaco, then went to Dubbo on a Heavy 9, led all the way, pulled hard and still bolted in by over 7L.
But, her dangers were nowhere near her in run, whereas today she is up in class, both on official grading of race and actual field strength. Furthermore, there will be a few stalking her in running with five or six of them that can all win.
Betting Strategy
LAY (WIN) Hammoon Bridge
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