The Race Club: Best Back & Lay

The Race Club are providers of high quality racing information. Every Tuesday & Thursday this spring they will be offering up two of their very best BACK & LAY selections. Check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for the latest odds.


BEST BACK

Gosford | R1 #2 Judge Judi

Now trained by Kim Waugh & having her 2nd run her as well as it being the horses 2nd up run. She is currently 2 from 2 2nd up & judging by her 1st up 2nd placing over 1400 at Kembla 14 dyas ago, where after racing on the pace, she was narrowly btn by Myprayer & in good figures, it did nothing to say she won’t make it 3 from 3 here.

1600 around here should suit, she will race on pace, or lead in race that won’t be run at any tempo. Zavance is a danger, but it doesn’t jump the best & will most likely be giving JJ a start, which if pace isn’t on, may be a touch difficult to do.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Judge Judi


BEST LAY

Corowa | R7 #1 Yousay Bolt

He is by far & away the best horse in the race, so he has no dangers on ability, his danger is the Corowa track, it is a massively on pace biased track & there is a chance that Yousay Bolt gets crossed more than once early, if he does, then he will be in traffic needing a bit of luck.

He had his 1st race start over this C&D, didn’t jump the best, was well back all the way & never looked likely. To back at 1.25, you want C&D to be perfect, not just have them covered class wise.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Yousay Bolt

BEST BACK

Muswellbrook | R1 #4 Beaufort Park

Horse has only raced once & it was a total forgive run. It was over 1300 at Goulburn, where it was slowly away, then well back all way to turn & then held up all the way in the straight until 50m from home to run 7th of 13 btn 2.14L.

If it leaves the gates on terms with the field, it will race on pace & is the horse they will have to beat. It has firmed from 5.00 overnight, into current quote of 3.1. If he jumps I think he is closer to a 2.25 chance.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Beaufort Park


BEST LAY

Muswellbrook | R2 #2 Healing Hands

Has only had 1 race start & it was for what looked a fairly impressive win, it was over 1010m at Dubbo, where it was wide in run, around midfield to turn, then ran on well to by 1.25L, but he was the widest in the straight, which was the best going on the day.

He steps up to 1280 here, but doubt that is as much a problem for him, as is the class rise,  as this looks a fairly strong C1 line up opposed to him. 31 days between runs is also a slight concern, so at 2.35 that he is currently, does look a short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Healing Hands

BEST BACK

Orange | R7 #12 Bush Rambler & #7 The Long Run | 5:30pm

Bush Rambler

Even though he is a maiden with only 1 run under his belt & taking on C1 race here, I think he did enough in running 3rd btn just over 1L by Elenara at only start, it was over 1000m here, where he missed the jump & was back with the winner all the way, came widest on turn, but still went to line as well as the winner. Concern is the start, but does get G.Ryan up today & jumps from gate 1.

The Long Run

Has only had 4 starts, for a fair 6th here behind Indicators over 1000m, when wide all the way, then won maiden at non tab meet. Then 5th to the smart Jetgirl over 1100 at mudgee, then last run was 2nd to Music Miss over 1200 at Warren, where it was 3 & 4 wide the whole way, yet still worked to line to be btn 1.47L into 2nd place.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Bush Rambler (2 units) and The Long Run (.5 units)


BEST LAY

Orange | R6 #7 Perigod | 4:50pm

He is probably the best horse in the race & is being ridden by leading country rider G.Ryan, so has plenty going for him so far, but what I think is against him, is the step up from 1100m to 1400m.

Has had 3 runs for a 3rd over 1000m at Kembla, then two 2nds both over 1100m, one at Mudgee then last one behind Exceltic at Gosford, so form easily strong enough against this moderate opposition.

In all 3 runs he showed early speed, but also raced keenly early, so I expect he does the same here & possibly over-races even worse as it’s over 1400. So current quote of 1.70 looks a bit skinny when distance is a big query.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Perigord

BEST BACK

Kembla | R4 #7 Soir De Lune

Last two runs both at this track and distance, where it over-raced in both, yet only beaten 2.6L two runs back & 1L last run. Drawn to get a nice run tracking the speed & if strips fitter here, then looks fair EW value at current quote of 31.00.

NB Last 2 runs were for new stable, so hopefully horse has settled in & they have him close to his peak.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Soir De Lune

BEST LAY

Kembla | R2 #5 Emshalky

Horse is 3rd up here off 2 forgive runs, both were over 1300m. She is a winner over 1400 at this track, where rider wanted to settle midfield, but was trapped 3 wide & pace slowed, so he rolled to front, set slow pace & she held on.

She tends to over-race early, also she’s had 1 try over this distance, where she did over-race early & then did little in the straight. All of her opponents will run the 1600 whereas she may struggle to run it out strongly, hence early quote of 3.50 looks a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Emshalky

BEST BACK

Inverell | R6 #1 Bullseye Score & #3 Mellore

This horse was very good 1st up from a spell in leading all the way over this distance at Taree & recording very good figures in doing so. He then went to Moree over 950, where from a wide gate was 3 & 4 wide duelling for the lead, he boxed on well to run 3rd btn 1.03L. Back up to the 1000m here, he should find rail early.

If they attack him in front, then Mellore will be the horse running over them, so a saver on him.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Bullseye Score 2 Units

 BACK (WIN) Mellore 0.5 Units

BEST LAY

Kensington | R2 #3 Smiling Manolito

Has led & walked in lead at last 3 runs for two 2nds & a last start win, all be it a bit lucky as 2nd horse should’ve won clearly. Not sure he gets it as easy in front here & there are 4 or 5 horses that can win, aslo some are of them are on pace & some off, so no matter the tempo, some of his dangers will be suited. For those reasons, 3.20 looks a bit thin

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Yalanji


Betfair is a low margin exchange, just like Airbnb. We create markets for punters to take on punters. And we want winners.


Dec 20

BEST BACK

Goulburn | Race 1 | #1 Only Choice

This is a far inferior field to his last run, which was in a C3 Highway, where nothing went right, he was back & wide the whole way, still worked to line ok.

From gate 1 in the small field, he will be within striking distance & 1400m is his ideal trip, will just need rider to get him off rail as the track is a Soft 5 & the rail is normally the worst going when track is rain affected.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Only Choice

BEST LAY

Goulburn | Race 2 | #8 Yalanji

Was a fair winner of maiden at Canberra over 1000m 1st up, then ok in running 4th over 1100 at Mudgee 2nd up. This race looks to have a fair bit more depth to it than last races he contested, with 3 or 4 live chances against him.

Newtown Is Coming has a good chance, has won 4 races, but with the apprentices claim, only gives Yalanji 2kgs. Yalanji looks short at current quote of 2.45

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Yalanji


Dec 18

BEST BACK

Armidale | Race 2 | #11 In Ya Skyrocket

Only had the 1 start for a very good 4th over 1006 at Port Macquarie, where he went head & head with Miss Powerbelle, he boxed on very well to be btn just over 1L in a race that was solidly run & returned good figures. This track will suit & with no Miss Powerbelle engaged to go with him early, he looks the horse to beat.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) In Ya Skyrocket

BEST LAY

Armidale | Race 1 | #4 So Good To Me

Always a touch risky laying a horse that looks to get the box seat run & from gate 1 she should get it fairly easily.  She will be sitting on one of her dangers in Sunny Afternoon, who she beat home last start, but SA did a bit of work to get to lead from wide draw & then set a fast pace to knock up over the last 150m, but SA jumps from gate 2 here, also the track & distance will suit her better, which will mean SGTM will have to do the chasing as opposed to SA coming back to her like last start.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) So Good To Me


Dec 13

BEST BACK

Warrnambool | Race 3 | #3 Madja

Progressive mare who was a strong maiden winner, tipped out and resumed off a 38 week spell. Trialled up very well leading into her 1st up run where she set a hot tempo and boxed on very well to be beaten 1/2 length by one who had a charmed run in behind.

Out to 1200m perfect off that run. She should be able to cross, dictate and is the one to beat.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Madja

Warrnambool | Race 5 | #7 Delightful Cat

Delightful Cat was bursting for a win when taking out a BM58 over this trip 20 days ago. I’m not sure she leads these with a couple drawn outside her capable of pressing. But she does have options; if gifted, take it up or make the two work to cross her.

She looks well set up given either scenario. If they over do it up front, the two coming home strong will be Magna Carta and Splashette. Happy to be with Delightful Cat EW at the current quote.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Delightful Cat

BEST LAY

Warrnambool | Race 1 | #6 Wild Moon

Granted he doesn’t have much to beat but he has had every chance his last two over 1350 and 1400m. Last run, had the leaders back in running and boxed on fairly to be beaten just under a length. Better suited at 1500m to the mile off that run and I couldn’t entertain the red odds available.

The first starter Sandman has jumped out well enough on two occasions and is much more enticing at double figures.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Wild Moon


Dec 11

BEST BACK

Wagga | Race 2 | #4 Miss Crompton & #5 Cherro

#4 Miss Crompton has only had the 1 start, was over this C&D for a very good 3rd btn just under 1L. She was a fraction slow away, showed good speed to be the widest in a line of 4 into the 1st turn, then raced head & head with another runner all way to turn, then got headed at 200, where she was entitled to knock up, but she boxed on well to the line.

#5 Cherro is making debut off a fair trial at Tatura 21 days ago. Has come up with gate 1 & should be able to get a nice run on speed, with the concern being she was a touch slow away in trial.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) 4. Miss Crompton for 0.75 units

 BACK (WIN) 5. Cherro for 0.25 units

BEST LAY

Wagga | Race 4 | #2 Olifants

He is a speed horse that has drawn the outside gate in a race where there are 2 other speed horses engaged, so if he is going to cross, he will be setting a fast pace which won’t enable him to be strong late. He has been run down in easier fields than this one. He doesn’t just have 1 danger, there are 3 or 4 of his opposition that can win & will relish a fast pace. Currently 4.40, which looks very very short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Olifants


BEST BACK

Gosford | Race 3 | #7 Laguna Mountains

Won its maiden 11 days ago over this distance at Goulburn at only his 2nd start in a race, now stepping up to a C1 at the provincials, but his win was very impressive, he raced on the speed in solidly run race, yet he was still very strong to the line, suggesting he has more wins in store. Rubino Veloce may be worth a small save for the place.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Laguna Mountains

BEST LAY

Gosford | Race 1 | #9 Nivalis

That Song & Impurity have run better races in far stronger maidens than she has & I think she will be lucky to beat one of them home, let alone both of them. That makes her current quote of 3.70 very skinny.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Nivalis


BEST BACK

Scone | Race 3 | #7 The Sparkle Legend

Is making his debut, has had plenty of experience though, as he has trialled on 4 occasions & shown a bit of ability in all 4. He has a good draw, should hold an on pace spot. Danger looks to be Fort Jackson & apart from him, it looks a fairly average line up.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) The Sparkle Legend

BEST LAY

Scone | Race 5 | #10 Power Transformer

Horse has only had the 1 start, it being in a 1550m maiden at a Canterbury night meeting 18 days ago & although dropping from city maiden to a country maiden, he did very little when the pressure was applied in last 400 & was basically btn as they turned for home. Besides the winner of that race, the others are pretty ordinary conveyances. He is currently 4.60 which looks a bit short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Power Transformer

Nov 29

BEST BACK

Wyong | Race 4 | #7 Enjoy Elsie

Her 1st prep consisted of 1 trial & 1 race. She trialled quite well to run 3rd btn 1.8L in good time, then 11 days later she had her 1st race & again went quite well to run 3rd btn 2.3L by the handy Royal Witness.

She is 1st up here off a very nice trial where she jumped to front & gapped them in fast time. A repeat of that should see her do the same here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Enjoy Elsie

BEST LAY

Wyong | Race 5 | #6 The Seven Falls

Have been against this bloke at his last 3 runs where he was btn in two ordinary country maidens both at Orange & both over 1600m. In between those he ran 3rd in a 4yo+ Newcastle maiden over 1850.

He can over-race in the early to mid stages of a race & with the step up to 2100 there is a good possibility he does again, which won’t help him late in the race. This is a C 1+ Mdn Plt & stronger than his previous 3 runs, so he looks a bit short at current quote of 3.00.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) The Seven Falls


Nov 27

BEST BACK

Port Macquarie | Race 8 | #3 Red Cupcake & #6 Lingalonga Lass

Red Cupcake was impressive winner of its maiden over this C&D 12 days ago, it was her 1st race start, she jumped ok from wide gate, eased back to 3rd line travelled strongly to turn & then hit the line well in fair figures. She should settle similar position here & think she’ll be hard to hold out again.

Lingalong Lass was also an impressive winner of her maiden two starts back, then was just fair 2nd up. She has a positive rider change today,  should find the early lead & be the horse to run down.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Red Cupcake

 BACK (WIN) Lingalonga Lass

BEST LAY

Port Macquarie | Race 8 | #4 Complete Faith & #5 Bearly Thinking

Complete Faith was ok winning over 1100 at Grafton, where she got to line well, so don’t think the drop back to 1000 will suit.

Bearly Thinking has only won one of 20 starts & it was over 1200, she is another not well suited at the 1000m.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Complete Faith

 LAY (WIN) Bearly Thinking


Nov 22

BEST BACK

Queanbeyan | Race 6 | #5 Hercegovka | 5:50PM AEDT

She is an 8yo mare that has found a new lease of life winning her last two starts, 2 back she won a non tab BM over 1400 at Tumut, but did space the field, then came here over 1200m, where she did a bit of work OSL until crossing to front about 700m out, then boxed on well to win.

She steps up to 1460, but with C&D stats of 7: 2-2-1, it’s a positive if anything, also she handles the wet. If they leave her lead on her own, she will be very hard to run down.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Hercegovka

BEST LAY

Kensington | Race 5 | #2 Discussions | 5:30PM AEDT

He led all the way over 1300m here 22 days ago & recorded a fair win, but he was left alone in the lead. The same won’t occur here as there is a bit of early speed in it, so he won’t get things his own way, also tempo will be quicker here & he also has an inexperienced 3kg apprentice riding today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Discussions


Nov 20

BEST BACK

Dubbo | Race 7 | #1 Fine Hero | 4:50PM AEDT

He was a very impressive winner 1st up over this distance at Orange 11 days ago. He was close to 3L off lead at 600, improved 4 wide around the turn & when the girl asked him for an effort in the straight, he put paid to them in a couple of strides. If the girl can give him a fair ride in this, then he should be very hard to beat again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Fine Hero

BEST LAY

Dubbo | Race 6 | #5 Worldly Pleasure | 4:15PM AEDT

Won her maiden at her last start, it was over this distance at Orange, he led most of the way, beat an ordinary line up & recorded ordinary figures in doing so. Considerable class rise here, so will need to have improved a few lengths to trouble these. Current quote of 4.60 looks very short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Worldly Pleasure


Nov 15

BEST BACK

Port Macquarie | Race 2 | #5 Wild Sheila | 1.50PM AEDT

She was good at her 1st race start over 1200m at Tamworth, where she was last of 7 to turn, then had to change course a couple of times in straight & still worked home well. Stepping up to 1500 at her 2nd race start looks ideal. If the girl can give her a good steer, I think she is the horse to beat & fair value at current quote of $4.50.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Wild Sheila

BEST LAY

Port Macquarie | Race 8 | #3 Total Power  | 5.30PM AEDT

Won his maiden at 1st run over 1200m at Tamworth 17 days ago, where he led all the way setting a moderate tempo, so race couldn’t have been run more to suit, also the opposition was quite ordinary. Up to C1 race here & not a bad one at that, this field is far superior to what he beat at Tamworth. Even if he finds the front here, his dangers will be right on his tail. He looks quite short at current quote of 2.80

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Snippets of Rain


Nov 13

BEST BACK

Quirindi | Race 5 | #6 Princess Pattern | 4.35pm AEDT | save #7 Velaro

She will get back, so will need a little luck, but she does know how to hit the line, there looks a bit of pace i the race, with Dreamnomore sure to roll across from the outside gate, also Apache Lad & Disgraceful should  be on pace in run. Hardest to beat will be the fave Velaro, who should get a nice run in transit in a stalking position & he will appreciate dropping back to 1600 & also the dry surface.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Princess Pattern for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) Velaro for 2 units

BEST LAY

Quirindi | Race 2 | #10 Snippets Of Rain | 2.40PM AEDT

Will most likely lead, but isn’t the strongest conveyance & there looks to be a couple of handy maidens in it, in Supreme Streak & Resinite, who have both only had the 1 start for a 3rd placing each & neither had the best of luck in transit.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Snippets of Rain


Nov 8

BEST BACK

Randwick | Race 3 | #5 Round of Applause | 1.00pm

He has only had the one start, resulting in a fair 3rd just under 1L behind Restrained (Who won again last Saturday) over 1200 at Newcastle 17 days ago.

He settled in 3rd running line on the fence, raced a bit keen in transit, then had to change course in straight, but still hit the line off only a moderate tempo. Looks a fair EW play at current quote of 17.00.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Round of Applause

BEST LAY

Randwick | Race 1 | #2 Orcein | 11.55pm

This is his 5th run up, he won off a perfect ride in a pretty ordinary maiden line up over 1600m 2nd up. Was fair at his next two starts. He isn’t the most tractable horse, as he has a high head carriage & can also over-race in run.

He is stepping up to 1800m for the 1st time, so there is a good chance he may over-race early here, which will be detrimental to him in the latter stages of the race. He is currently the race fave at 4.00 which looks quite thin considering his 6 opponents all have winning chances.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Orcein


Nov 6

BEST BACK

Randwick | Race 3 | #5 Round of Applause | 1.00pm

He has only had the one start, resulting in a fair 3rd just under 1L behind Restrained (Who won again last Saturday) over 1200 at Newcastle 17 days ago.

He settled in 3rd running line on the fence, raced a bit keen in transit, then had to change course in straight, but still hit the line off only a moderate tempo. Looks a fair EW play at current quote of 17.00.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Round of Applause

BEST LAY

Randwick | Race 1 | #2 Orcein | 11.55pm

This is his 5th run up, he won off a perfect ride in a pretty ordinary maiden line up over 1600m 2nd up. Was fair at his next two starts. He isn’t the most tractable horse, as he has a high head carriage & can also over-race in run.

He is stepping up to 1800m for the 1st time, so there is a good chance he may over-race early here, which will be detrimental to him in the latter stages of the race. He is currently the race fave at 4.00 which looks quite thin considering his 6 opponents all have winning chances.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Orcein


Nov 1

BEST BACK

Sapphire Coast | Race 2 | #2 Gorush Lightning | 2.25pm

Has raced on pace in all of his 6 starts, with most of them being solidly run affairs, steps up to 1608 for 1st time in a race with no other speed in it, s he should find the front without much effort here & if left to control tempo, should be hard to run down.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Gorush Lightning

BEST LAY

Gosford | Race 5 | #3 Rare Episode | 3.55pm

He gapped a maiden field over 1100m here at his 1st start on a Heavy track, but figures weren’t great on the day. He then went to Wyong over this distance, where he looked home turning but tired the last 100m to be btn .9L.

The equal fave in this race is Coterie who is drawn directly outside him & who was an impressive winner of his maiden at Wyong 21 days ago. He was 4 wide in line of 4 for lead early, rider eased back, still wide improved from 600, joined lead 4 wide at 400 & came away late to record a strong win. His form is overall stronger than that of Rare Episode & think he should be the fave.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Rare Episode

Oct 30th

BEST BACK

Grafton | Race 1 | #7 Bromach | 1.20pm

Is stepping up to this trip for first time, but he is a last start 2010m winner at Coffs Harbour where he was strong to the line. Run before was 1900m at Armidale where he ran on ok for third off slow tempo. Has hit form as his distances have increased. He comes in on the limit weight, just want him to settle in run and he will be hard to beat.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Bromach

BEST LAY

Stawell | Race 1 | #6 Mischa | 1.30pm

Small field with four first starters and the raced Mischa resuming. She wasn’t disgraced in handy races in her first prep and has jumped out fairly leading into this. I don’t think she is without good competition in the Weir pair, both who have jumped out smart enough to win this. Fairy Song, one of the Weir pair, was sharp and composed. For that reason I’m going against Mischa.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Mischa


Oct 25th

BEST BACK

Hawkesbury | Race 1 | #8 Polhampton | 1.20pm AEDT

He is 1st up from a spell in this, had 2 runs last prep, 1st was one over 1000m he missed the kick, was near last to turn & worked to line ok in a race dominated by 1-2-3 in run.

He then went to midweek over 1200, jumped better from wide out, but was eased back racing a bit keen, went 4 wide turn to only plugged home to be beaten by 4.6L.

Had 1 trial leading into this where he was leaders back well on the bit, so from gate 2 he should race handy in a race that doesn’t have much in it. 14.00 EW looks fair odds.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Polhamton

BEST LAY

Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #1 and #11 All the Wine and Banjos Voice | 3.10pm AEDT

All The Wine is lining up for his 29th start still a maiden & even though this is a prov/ctry restricted maiden, it looks a bit strong for him. 5.50 looks short

Banjo’s Voice has led them up & not been real strong late, last run was 1280 at Orange, where he did do a little work to cross & lead, but tempo was only average, he would’ve finished closer had he not veered into rail & put in a couple rough strides in straight, but was an ordinary ctry mdn. 4.40 looks short as well.

Wild Kingdom & Lexi’s Choice are the 2 hardest to beat.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) All the Wine and Banjos Voice



Oct 23rd

BEST BACK

Muswellbrook | Race 6 | #5 Sunday Swindler | 4.20pm AEDT

He is 1st up in this, he goes well 1st up, handles a rain affected track, races on pace, all positives for this race, as it looks like it will be moderately run, which won’t suit  the fave Yambaah Prince as he gets back.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Sunday Swindler

BEST LAY

Muswellbrook | Race 2 | #10 Macal | 1.55pm AEDT

She has had 4 runs this prep, from 1100 to 1250, she hasn’t looked a like a 900m horse in any of them. She has had a freshen up from winning a trial 25 days ago, but it it in slow time. The unraced fave has trialled better than it.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Macal


Oct 18th

BEST BACK

Moe | Race 9 | #13 Botti | 5.10pm

Botti had his Australian debut over 1755m at Geelong and class prevailed. Traveled, held up in the straight, once out, really knuckled down to win smartly. Step up ideal and was nommed for Saturday but they’ve  elected to come here. He’ll be closer in running from the rails draw, a touch of luck when it matters and he looks to have a bit on these.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Botti

BEST LAY

Moe | Race 8 | #3 Royal Ace | 4.35pm

Sat closer last start over the mile and was only shaded late by a pretty smart one in Mahamedeis. He’s drawn barrier 7 of 9 here with a bit of speed under him and will need luck slotting in.

If they elect to go back and they over do it up front, he still has to get past others with strong finishes in Top Of The Range and Bad Wolf, who I think will both be more forward and get softer runs runs than Royal Ace today. Given the above, even money seems much too skinny to consider.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Royal Ace


Oct 16th

BEST BACK

Newcastle | Race 5 | #3 Front View | 4.20pm

His 2nd to Carano over 1600m at Gosford on 14/8 was a very good run, then had 6 weeks gap until 28/9 where he trialled over 1200 at Gosford, he went very well in open trial running 2nd to Sense of Occasion & looked to trial better than it. looks a fair price. The closer to a Good 4 rating, the better his chances. 7.00 ew

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Front View

BEST LAY

Newcastle | Race 1 | #3 Shadow Bridge| 1.50pm

Although this horse has trialled well on 2 occasions leading into this, he did race a bit hard in his last one. Another concern is it’s been 25 days since last trial, making it 39 days since 1st trial, quite a long time for a horse going into a 900m race. I also have a doubt about him finding lead as horse in gate has speed & the 2nd fave Paris Lights, aside from missing the jump, she went quite well in her trial 21 days ago & think she is the horse to beat if she jumps away with them.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Shadow Bridge


Oct 11th

BEST BACK

Wyong | Race 8 | #8 Celer| 5.25pm

He was very good in running 3rd to Power Rush beaten 1.26L 1st up over 1000m here 18 days ago. He looks to get a solid speed to follow. If the inside is fine come the last, then save on Sophiella.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Celer

BEST LAY

Wyong | Race 1 | #7 Segalas  | 1.05pm

Only had the one start, it was over 1200m here 18 days ago, where it had every chance sitting OSL in a slowly run race. It hit the lead turning and got run down to be beaten 1L. If it handles the Heavy, it will be hard to beat, but you don’t want those queries when taking 1.85.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Segalas

BEST LAY

Wyong | Race 5 | #3 Fast Train | 3.35pm

This looks a risky lay as the horse couldn’t have been more impressive in destroying a maiden field by 6.33L over 1800m at Hawkesbury 21 days ago. He was on pace in a fast run race and had it won before the turn, but he also over-raced for close to the 1st 1000m. If he over-races again here with an extra 300m to travel and on a heavy track, he may be vulnerable late. For those reasons I think 1.85 is a touch short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Fast Train 


Oct 9th

BEST BACK

Goulburn | Race 3 | #4 Maid in Milan | 2.25pm

Looks to lead at her leisure here, has only had 2 race starts & went well in both. 1st one she was chasing the smart Mansa Musa over 1100 at Gosford. She then stepped up to this distance at Bathurst for a narrow win, but it was more impressive than it looked, as she, jumped well then half got shuffled back to midfield when rider grabbed, overraced for a couple hundred metres in race that tempo suited leaders.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Maid in Milan

BEST LAY

Goulburn | Race 7 | #3 King’s Peak | 4.50pm

His paper form is the strongest in the race, but I think it’s a touch flattering. 1st start was in a maiden a lot stronger than this one, but he only plugged away to run 5th of 8 btn over 5L on a Soft 7. 2nd run he ran 2nd in a weak maiden at Kembla, where he ran on from well back, but race was fast run, winner did a good job to lead all the way, he ran on due to winner getting tired in run to line & not to mention they came home in slow figures.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) King’s Peak


Oct 4th

BEST BACK

Wangaratta | Race 3 | #13 Lecture | 2.30pm

Going with the first starter Lecture here in what looks a maiden that lacks much depth. Has been very sharp in recent jump outs, showing good early speed and in the most recent, getting to the line with a bit still under her.

She should cross from the barrier to sit handy to the speed and I think she’ll be very hard to beat. Her current quote seems more than fair.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Lecture

BEST LAY

Gosford | Race 7 | #3 Spin Bowles | 4.50pm

He is an average conveyance & been beaten in weaker races than this one. His 1st up run was ok, when he ran on from well back to run 3rd btn 3.25L to Cyclonite over 1000m at Hawkesbury, but flattered by the fast pace.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Spin Bowles


Oct 2nd

BEST BACK

Coffs Harbour| Race 3 | #3 Gunnaza, save on #6 Super Tonic | 2.40pm

Gunnaza should find the lead fairly easily here, exactly how you want a short course leader to find lead. If he does find it easy, he will hard to run down. 1000 is his best distance & his stats at this C&D are 4:2-1-1.

Save on his danger, the fave Super Tonic, who is 5 from 10 & 1 from 1 at C&D.  She should be fairly handy in run being 1st up & the small field will suit.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Gunnaza

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Super Tonic

BEST LAY

Nowra | Race 1 | #4 Graterra | 1.50pm

1st starter from a good stable & comes up with barrier 1, but that may not be enough. He has had 2 trials, the 1st ordinary, 2nd was a bit better but still not real flash. The horse drawn next to him, Commissioner has better race form than Graterra has trial form & is the horse to beat.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Graterra

Sep 27

BEST BACK

Hawkesbury | Race 8 | #9 Happy Partner | 5.20pm

He is coming into this off what looked a below average run last start, it was over 2100m at Gosford, he was well off pace in a moderately run race, he made his run 750 out, loomed up on turn, then only plugged on the last 200, but rider dropped his whip there & horse basically ran to line under his own steam.

He is back to 1800 here, where he as acquitted himself well previously & the Soft 7 track will suit him, whereas it won’t all of his opposition. At 21.00 he looks value on an ew basis.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Happy Partner

BEST LAY

Hawkesbury | Race 5 | #5 Another Shadow | 3.25pm

It was our back last week and was beaten the nose in the last bound at huge odds. Today it steps up from 1100 to 1300, which may not suit as well. Also the field is a fraction stronger & she is only 4.00.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Another Shadow


Sep 25

BEST BACK

Grafton | Race 2 | #4 Smokin Suzy | 1:45pm

Smokin’ Suzy is resuming here, her previous form is only average. She ran third in trial, where she was beaten over 9L, but she wasn’t let go. The winner of the trial was Cheat’m, is a fast horse that’s won three races & he was ridden along the lat 150m. Smokin’ Suzy has drawn a nice gate, in what looks an average maiden field & at around the 19.00 mark, looks a fair ew play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Smokin Suzy

BEST LAY

Mildura | Race 7 | #2 Solsay | 4:30pm

Solsay comes up quite short here considering he was gifted the win last start this C&D. The field was pushed wide by a rogue runner and he avoided congestion to sneak away. He is drawn outside a bit of speed making him vulnerable in running and I don’t think carrying the extra 2kg he will be able to pick them up if they elect to settle worse than midfield.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Solsay


Sep 20

BEST BACK

Hawkesbury | Race 3 | #5 Another Shadow | 2:10pm

Her form on paper is terrible, but this is a very ordinary maiden race that is restricted to provincial & country trained horses. Even though she was beaten 6.5L 1st up over 1300m here, she was wide all the way in a solidly run race, she also overraced in it, suggesting drop back to 1100m should suit it better.

With C.Brown to do the steering today, she should get every chance & is worth an EW ticket at 34.00.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Another Shadow

BEST LAY

Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #2 Grand Soleil | 2:40pm

This horse has its share of ability, but is its own worst enemy, the way it gets head up & overrraces early in its races. She did it two runs back over this distance at Taree & got away with the win. She did work early there so was still fairly impressive, but looked better than it was as tempo wise, on pace was place to be.

She has a top rider in Avdulla up today & if he can settle her, she will be hard to beat, but doubt he will be able to.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Grand Soleil


Sep 18

BEST BACK

Kembla Grange | Race 7 | #2 Ligulate | 4:40pm

She was fair in winning first up here over 1000m, then up to this trip at Randwick 14 days later, where she was eased back to near tail early. Was wide all the way and still worked home well to be only beaten 2.9L into sixth place.

Hopefully from gate 1, her rider is a touch more positive and has her closer in run.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Ligulate

BEST LAY

Kembla Grange | Race 6 | #2 Veranes | 4:05pm

The race has fallen away due to scratchings and now not a lot of depth to the race, but I don’t think there is a lot of depth to Veranes either.

She hasn’t done a lot in her two runs in NSW, her last start third at Wyong over 1200m was only average and in average figures. At the current quote of $1.60, shes too short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Veranes


Sep 13

BEST BACK

Grafton | Race 6 | #9 Manhattan Road | 2:45pm

This horse is currently way too long in the market at around 71.00. He is second up here and his second up form is ordinary. However, so is his first up form. Did run a nice closing fifth first up over 1250m at Kempsey 19 days ago, where he worked home well late off a moderate tempo. He has raced against and beaten better company than this.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Manhattan Road

BEST LAY

Grafton | Race 2 | #11 Jahez | 12:25pm

An ex Godolphin horse, starting for the first time under racing conditions here. It led all the way to win a trial in average fashion over 1006m here 12 days ago. Now lines up in a fairly strong looking maiden and at current price of $6.00 it looks very well found.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Jahez


Sep 11

BEST BACK

Tamworth | Race 3 | #2 Maui Princess | 2:10pm

You could make a case against a horse that was an odds on pop, beaten over 5l by a 33/1 outsider at its last run, but she got too far back from her draw, ran on well late to run 2nd, after going very wide on home turn, while the winner led all the way and ran excellent figures in doing so.

Today’s race is an extra 200m in distance, she is drawn in closer, which will enable her to settle closer to speed, both big positives. Autumn Ridge has trialled up nicely and worthy of a small save to ‘chop out’ on if it wins.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Maui Princess

BEST LAY

Tamworth | Race 5 | #5 Hammoon Bridge | 3:25pm

She’s had two starts for its new trainer, both this distance and both good runs. She led at a solid speed on both occasions. The first time run down at Quirindi to be beaten .75L by Albert of Monaco, then went to Dubbo on a Heavy 9, led all the way, pulled hard and still bolted in by over 7L.

But, her dangers were nowhere near her in run, whereas today she is up in class, both on official grading of race and actual field strength. Furthermore, there will be a few stalking her in running with five or six of them that can all win.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Hammoon Bridge

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