The Race Club: Best Back & Lay

Sale | Race 2 | #16 Too Good Too Hard

Well bred filly having her first start on the back of two handy trials. First of those, pushed out to run past Persuader, the latter, cruised into 4th behind some very handy fillies in good time. 1200m first up ideal and expect she’s doing her best late. Happy to back. 

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Too Good Too Hard

Sale | Race 8 | #5 Born to Flight

Coming off a last start win over a similar trip. All favours. Drawn out today and up 2kg, I think she’s vulnerable in the run and with a couple others that will see this trip strong, I think he’s much too short in early markets. Against. 

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Born to Flight

Mornington | Race 4 | #1 Arzani

ARZANI was a touch slow into stride last start before finishing off very well to record the 2nd best last 400m of the day. Based on the jump out prior I think he can be more prominent early and he’s the one they all need to beat.

The danger being HE IS. Nice enough Flemington jump out, on pace and extended well. Happy to be with ARZANI today. 

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Arzani

Newcastle | Race 6 | #7 Prince Fawaz

Going from a G1 to a Provincial Mdn Plt is about the biggest drop back in class there is, but 2 & 3yo racing it’s a fairly common occurrence & they invariably start very short. His run before the G1 was also in a Provincial Mdn Plt, where he ran 5th btn 2.21L when coming from well back, but it was fast run & the overall time was only ordinary with closing split quite slow.

He has drawn gate 10 & a chance of being off pace, which isn’t ideal set up about a 2yo in a big field. He can no doubt win the race, but odds on is a shrt price to take, so happy to risk him at red figures.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Prince Fawaz

Warrnambool | Race 10 | #10 La Lova

Looking to wrap up the carnival with the Purcell runner La Lova. Fitting that Pike takes the mount. Dumped the rider 2nd up last start over 1100m.

Start prior full of merit, travelling deep throughout on pace and better then evens to be bloused late. 1300m ideal now. Expect on pace, handles the going and looks a very good each-way prospect. 

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – La Lova

Warrnambool | Race 9 | #1 Furrion

Can risk the top weight here at the price. Coming off a last start 2nd in the Easter Cup behind Plein Ceil. Winner had a lovely path saving ground where Furrion came deeper and boxed on well.

No knocks on that run but gives 13 of the runners 4kg here, draws inside, expected to be back and I cannot get him that short at all. Plenty of good chances at odds, including the up and coming Light The Waves. With that, happy to be against Furrion at the price. 

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Furrion

Kembla Grange | Race 4 | #2 Cape Wickham

He will be off pace in run in what should be a solidly run race, as Uno That has led & set a solid pace at his last 2 runs, they were over 1400 & 1500, where he won them both., but just lasted over the 1500 & I feel he may go a bit keen here.

The others apart from Cape are on pacers, so they won’t be far away from him & most likely chasing him before the turn, enabling CW to have the sitting shot at them. CW is currently on the 4th line of betting, mainly due to his poor run over 1900 at Gosford at his last run. Take that run out & he’d be on top in the market.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Cape Wickham

Taree | Race 3 | #2 Galway

He is an ex Vic horse that has only had 1 start in NSW, it was 35 days ago over this distance at Coffs Harbour, where he recorded an easy win by over 2L, but the race was set up well for him, he was some 8 or 9L off the lead at the 600 in a very fast run race. He may not get the same set up here & this does look overall a slightly stronger lineup. So looks a touch short at his current quote of 1.95.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Galway

Wagga | Race 4 | #2 Black Wand

He had no luck last run over this T&D where he was bottled away on the rail & didn’t get clear running in the straight. The run before he he was 4l off the leader/winner at 600, then went wide on turn & boxed on ok to run 3rd btn 3.03L.

He has raced on affected tracks 3 times for one win & two 3rds, so wet track no problem & with a bit better luck/steer here, think he is the horse to beat. Dream Fields is the fave & no doubt the main danger, but 5.00 looks a fair price about Black Wand.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Black Wand

Wagga | Race 2 | #4 Withorn

He is an 11 start maiden with only 1 2nd placing, has had 4 1st up runs, 3 goes on affected tracks & missed a placing in all of them. He is the current 2nd fave at 3.90, which looks a bit thin for a horse with that record.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Withorn

Benalla | Race 1 | #11 Inciter

This filly looks ready and is well placed back in trip with the blinkers going on first time. She should’ve finished closer with a cleaner run at Sandown last start. I expect her to hold an on pace position and from there, she is a good EW hope. Nothing from the new comers has overly excited at the jump outs or trials.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Inciter

Newcastle | Race 3 | #2 Georgina Gold

She’s from a good stable, has a good rider, drawn a good gate & in a weak enough field, but is stepping up to 1500m after over-racing on pace in a 1300m race on the Kensington track, where she was btn turning to run 7th of 9 btn 6.9L at her 1st up run. Even allowing for ordinary opposition, she’s come up a shot quote for a horse that may over-race early. Rather oppose her at current quote of 1.95 than be for her.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Georgina Gold

Bendigo | Race 3 | #9 Tides

Tides resumes here after putting in a strong debut at Geelong last year, she ran on well against the tempo and pattern that day. There’s been no less than 8 individual winners come out of the race to give some further merit to her effort. First up here she’s had a couple of jump outs to get her geared up and looks to be going well. Happy to back.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Tides

Bendigo | Race 2 | #1 Absolutna

Perennial place getter Absolutna rightfully in the market in what looks a weak maiden. Lightly raced 6YO that has been runner up in his past three starts. He’ll be back in a race with out a lot of early speed. The well backed Dwyer runner is the one he’ll have to get past and I’ve got doubts whether he can pin him back. You couldn’t back either at the prices and I can find more against the top weight to be against.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Absolutna

Wyong | Race 3 | #3 Reiby’s Regent

He has had a total of 4 starts, 3 of them this time in, each of them had merit & in far stronger maiden fields than he meets here. He should be camped on the speed in run & the one they all have to hold out.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Reiby’s Regent

Wyong | Race 2 | #8 Visibly 

She comes into this off  a 2nd btn 3.33L in a C1 & Mdn Plt over 1900 at Armidale, so class wise this being for maidens only, it’s a class drop, but the Armidale race looked quite ordinary, whereas there are a couple in this that will appreciate the 2100 & have raced in stronger fields. Her current price 4.40 looks a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Visibly

Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #2 Taj

He was an impressive winner over 1500m at this track at his last start, where he did a little work to find the front early, then set a fair clip & then had them all chasing as he went for home about 450m out, he boxed on well to win by 0.25L.

The step up to 1800m should suit, just don’t want him engaging in a battle for the early lead in this, would rather see him sit OSL at a steadier tempo than to work to find the lead. TRC yard man says the horse is a nice type & will get over a distance. Current quote of 4.40 looks a fair price.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Taj

Hawkesbury | Race 6 | #5 Power Rush

Meets a pretty smart C2 field, here where she has 4 live dangers, so will need a lot to go right for her to beat this line up. She is coming out of 2 country races, where she did have excuses in both.

In the 1st over 900m she missed jump by 2L, then in next run over this distance, where she was in a line of 3 setting a good clip & good run over, but the horse directly on her outside was a bolter & she only managed to beat it home by 0.79L. 4.80 in this line up looks unders.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Power Rush

Gosford | Race 1 | #5 Pretorius

Pretorius is having his 2nd race start & although dropping back from 1200 on a roomy track to 1000 on a tight track doesn’t look ideal. The horse did race keen at 1st start & had little left last 200. The faves in this race look average at best, they’re both go forward types & drawn directly under in, he should camp right on them & get every chance. Rather play him at 6.00 than either of the faves.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Pretorius

Gosford | Race 5 | #13 Diamond Star Halo

Although dropping in class from his last start which was over 2400 at Kembla, he was btn easily in it & his previous 2 runs this time in were only in average grade. This looks a touch stronger than those 2. I give his stablemate Gayson a better hope of winning & it is longer in the market, along with 2 or 3 others that have strong claims. Current quote of 4.40 looks thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Diamond Star Halo

Grafton | Race 4 | #3 Dangta

Dangta set a fair tempo to led all the way over this T&D 16 days ago. He looks to find the lead again & if let control things then he’ll be the horse to beat again here. The track is currently rated a Soft 6 & whether it improves, gets worse or stays the same, he’ll handle any going.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Dangta

Bendigo | Race 2 | #12 Thrills of Thrills

First starter should race on the speed of its only trial. Put under pressure late running a close 2nd. Ex Weir runner Halycon Dame resumes. She competed in some very strong maidens in her first prep and has jumped out well on two occasions in readiness for today. Tack another from the jump outs looking at a strong debut. With that, I don’t have Thrills Of Thrills as close to these in the market.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Thrills of Thrills