The Race Club: Best Back & Lay

The Race Club are providers of high quality racing information. Every Tuesday & Thursday this spring they will be offering up two of their very best BACK & LAY selections. Check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for the latest odds.


Geelong | Race 3 | #8 Hadid

Hadid was game on debut when chasing two handy horses in Kent Street and Du To Pass before being tipped out. She has jumped out twice this time around, and certainly looks to have come back well mixing it with the likes of Pressure and Elite Drake in the latest. Certainly respect the favourite Fabric but she has drawn quite a tricky gate and is also very short in the market. Happy to play Hadid at the EW quote.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Hadid


Coffs Harbour | Race 1 | #2 Dark Comedy

Is off a 67 day break, it does have early pace, but has had 2 goes at T&D for 2 duck eggs. His last 2 runs were both 2nd placings over 1000m, but time was only ordinary in both. He is currently the 3.60 fave, which does look a bit short in a field with 4 or 5 live chances.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Dark Comedy

Donald | Race 8 | #2 Star Hills

Star Hills is the horse I like fresh here. He looked super on debut before putting several below-par runs in his last few attempts. I was quite taken by his recent Bendigo jump out where he looked to travel very comfortably before finishing off in good sections.

If he’s over his issues, which he appears to be off his jump out, I think we can get a result here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Star Hills


Donald | Race 8 | #1 Royal Pegasus

Obviously with our back in this race, Star Hills, we’re against the early favourite Royal Pegasus. Coming off a last start win over this trip and in this grade. Lumps an extra 2kg, drawn toward the outer and may just be doing a bit more work in the run today. Unders and happy to take him on.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Royal Pegasus

Bendigo | Race 3 | #12 Tofane

Tofane makes her debut off a smart enough Flemington jump out win recently. She was plucked out of NZ after winning a trial quite stylishly when unnamed.

With a bit of speed engaged, mainly from the debutants, expect she holds a spot behind the speed and is strongest late.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Tofane


Bendigo | Race 5 | #4 Fanciful Toff

This gelding and Latin Beat have gone head to head their last two and they come into this one a piece. Last start Fanciful Toff was strong to the line after having a relatively soft run up front. Latin Beat went early from a midfield position, travelling four deep entering the straight and just couldn’t pin Fanciful Toff back. Gets the shades and a 2kg weight swing on him today.

I have them closer in the market and then the lightly raced Payne runner resuming capable of upsetting them both. Against Fanciful Toff at the short quote.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Fanciful Toff

Moree | Race 7 | #2 Daiquiri Lass

Although dropping back from 1750 to 1300 here is a big distance change & viewed as a negative by most. She looks to get a nice run stalking a solid speed & also 4 ryns back she ran Albert’s No Pussy to .16L over this distance at Scone & the race recorded good figures.

Majority of her runs have been in stronger fields than this one & if young R.Jones can have her in a good spot settling, I think she’s the one they will all have to beat.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Daiquiri Lass


Goulburn | Race 1 | #4 Miss Antares

Coming off winning her maiden over this distance at Wyong into a country race would normally read ok, but it’s a C2 with a 3 or 4 live chances in it. She does have speed & drawn the rail, but if any rain has hit & it’s an affected track, the rail here isn’t normally the place to be, also there is other speed in it, so not sure she gets an easy lead, which will leave her vulnerable in the run home.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Miss Antares

Coffs Harbour | Race 1 | #1 Full of Spirit

He is a 2yo that looked very impressive in leading all the way to win a barrier trial over 1000m at Taree. The horse then had his 1st race start, it won on this track over 810 in an open age maiden, where he was the widest in a line of 3 wide for the lead turning for home, he then boxed on ok to run 4th btn 1.09L.

Today he steps to the 1000, which is ideal, has drawn a lower gate, also ideal & also drops He is back to his own age. Expect he leads or box seats or leads & step up to 1000 looks ideal, as does the lower draw & also back to own age. Current quote of 1.95 looks pretty reasonable.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Full of Spirit


Coffs Harbour | Race 6 | #5 Sunset Ruby

Its last run was its best run of 7 start career, when 2nd btno no the line over 1515m on this track, but it got straight to OSL without spending a penny, tempo was only moderate, so had every possible.

Start prior over this distance at Grafton, again to OSL easily, again moderately run until midrace move by another runner to make it a line at 600, but it was btn soon after to run 8th of 10 btn 7.17L. Overall it meets a bit tougher maiden line up in this, making the current quote of 4.20 look a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Sunset Ruby

Port Macquarie | Race 5 | #1 Crackneck

This looks like being a fast run race, with any of 5 horses that could lead & the odds on fave Qucik Nick could be one of them, while Crackneck will be off pace & if they do run along then I expect him to be hard to hold out.

His last start was a 3rd btn 3.25L by Silver Melody ober 1000m at Wyong, where ran on well in a leader dominated race. Current price of 5.00 looks more than fair.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Crackneck


Port Macquarie | Race 3 | #9 High Flight

She is 2nd up off a strong finishing 4th over 1300m at Scone & it was a stronger line up than she meets here, but the drop back to 1206 is against her, as she is looking for a lot further.

If they go mad in front, then she’ll be getting over the top, but it doesn’t look like they will be & she’ll be closer last than 1st in run. 4.40 about a horse that looks like it will be buried back on the rail & might need a bit of luck looks a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – High Flight

Scone | Race 7 | #4 Luna Mia and #12 Sing Us a Song

Luna Mia was a strong winner of her maiden over 1200 at Qurinidi in good time & 2nd has subsequently bolted in at it next start. Dropping from 1200 to 1100 not at concern as there is good speed in this.

Sing Us A Song has only won 1 from 9, but it was at her last start, it was at Newcastle over 900, where she hit the line very strongly to win narrowly, with a gap to 3rd. NB 2nd horse came out & won at his next start. If they can run on, she will be getting home well & looks fair price at 13.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Luna Mia (70% stake) and Sing Us a Song (30% stake)

Luna Mia – Scratched


Scone | Race 4 | #5 Rosesay

Last start winner of a maiden at Dubbo, while it did look a fairly strong win, the time was only ordinary & now into a BM 58 with a few that have live chances, it makes her current quote of 2.80 look a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Rosesay

Wyong | Race 6 | #5 Radical Impact

Hasn’t had a lot go right for him in 5 of his last 6 runs, ie mainly working hard & being trapped wide and into corners. Today if he finds the lead, I think they will struggle to run him down. NB he is 4 from at T&D. 6.00 looks good value.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Radical Impact


Wyong | Race 2 | #1 Blast

He is the race fave, is 1st up off 2 fair trials, but he will be giving his main danger Canyonero a start & if Canyonero gets his own way in the lead, he may not be able to reel him in. On The White Turf is also not out of it, so the fave doesn’t just have 1 horse to beat. 2.30 looks a bit thin

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Blast

Bathurst | Race 2 | #9 Mirandus

Mirandus is a 13 start maiden, but her best runs have been her two 3rd placings & they were both over 1600m, which until today is the longest trip she has raced over. Her last run she ran 3rd to Larmour over 1600 at Orange, the run had merit, as she was a worse than midfield in run & then forced very wide on turn, but still worked home well. She gets Greg Ryan up today, has a low draw, so should settle in a nice spot not far off the lead, in what looks like will only be run at moderate tempo. Current quote of 5.50 looks fair enough.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Mirandus


Tamworth | Race 3 | #10 Think Of Legend

Lightly raced ex Vic horse who has had 3 runs in NSW, for 1 average run & 2 quite ordinary ones. This is only an ordinary maiden, but think it will still struggle. It’s one advantage & that’s it will race on pace, but doubt that’s enough to help it. Current quote of 4.60 looks a bit  thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Think of Legend

Hawkesbury | Race 8 | #4 Exclusive

He is coming into this off a 1st up run over 1150 on the inner track at Newcastle & although he ran 7th of 8, he was only 2.22L from the winner & didn’t have the clearest run in the straight. Step up to 1400 looks ideal, as does booking of B.Shinn. Expect he races close to pace in a race they shouldn’t go overly hard in.

The well supported fave is Leatherhead, who has drawn the outside gate & who may go back at the start. I have them the other way around to how the market has them.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Exclusive


Hawkesbury | Race 7 | #1 Chocolatier

Is the likely leader & the distance will suit, but with a couple of others that the distance will also suit & a couple others who lead or race right on speed, he may not get it all his own way & this is a stronger line up than his last couple of races. Makes 3.20 look a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Choclatier

BEST BACK

Wyong R7 #8 Joy for Us

Is 3rd up here, off 2 fair runs at 1st 2 starts this prep, they were over 11 & 1200m at Gosford, where she ran on well in both, so step up to 1350 will suit. There also looks to be a bit of pace in the race & that will also aid her chances, as will having the in from J.Parr doing the steering.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Joy for Us


BEST LAY

Wyong R3 #6 Yorkshire Rock

He is a last start winner over 2000 at Queanbeyan, but it was a lot weaker field than he meets here, also he had a nice run throughout, yet wasn’t real impressive in beating them. He SP’d at 4.80 there, so the 4.20 he is currently in this, looks a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Yorkshire Rock

BEST BACK

Wagga R3 #9 & #7

Let’s Get Animal should roll to front & if left to dictate, should prove hard to run down. His last run was here over 1200m 17 days ago, where he led & set a fair tempo, he got headed by winner around the 200m mark, but battled away ok to finish 6th of 14, only btn 2.26L. The extra 100m should suit & he gets 1.5kgs off for apprentice. Close to double figures looks fair odds.

Rond De Jambe trialled ok before its 1st race start, then did zip in race, being well back all the way over 1300m in a Kembla maiden. 2nd run was over 1210m at Moruya, where again it was at the tail until turning, but this time it ran on well even though it was slightly held up a couple of times in the straight. Most likely settles off pace again here, but has drawn a low marble, which may help it be a pair or closer settling.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Let’s Get Animal half stake

 BACK (WIN) Rond De Jambe half stake


BEST LAY

Wagga R5 #2 Psittacine

This horse has had 10 runs for two 3rds, one of them came at his last start, it was at a non tab meet at Tumbarumba, where it was btn 2.13L in a field of 7, it will want to have been a moral btn there to have a hope in this, even if it was, still doubt its chances in this. It is currently 6.00 which is only a bit over 1 point longer than the 2 faves, which looks extremely short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Psittacine

BEST BACK

Gosford R3 #4 Classic Princess

She does have a bit against her, being a backmarker, but this is only a field of 8 & 5 of them are get back horses, so if jock can follow the fave over at start & settle around midfield, she’ll be close enough to leaders.

She has the strongest formlines in the race with a very close 2nd to Rapido Chaparro at this T&D 2 starts back. Banking on jock being positive at start.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Classic Princess


BEST LAY

Gosford R7 #1 Regal Stage

4yo having 1st race start that doesn’t look like he will be suited to this T&D. He has trialled ok, but not sure he handles the tight turn around here. What is in his favour, it looks to be quite an ordinary line up that he’s facing, but 1.75 about a 1st starter that may not handle this track, I think is worth a lay.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Regal Stage

BEST BACK

Grafton R8 #6 Dantga

His 1st 2 runs back both had merit, he raced on pace in solidly run races & boxed on ok. He has won 3 from 7 here, will press from forward & race on pace, hopefully they let him cross to front, then he will be tough to run down. There are showers forecast for Grafton today & if they arrive, that will only enhance his chances. Currently 16.00, which looks fair ew value.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Dantga


BEST LAY

Grafton R6 #4 Bromach

Will get back in a race that doesn’t look like it will run at any sort pace & he is a grinder that’s won over 2000, been placed over 2650m, so may have his work cut out to give them a start & a beating in this.  Current quote of 4.00 looks a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Bromach

BEST BACK

Kembla R5 #6 Home Made

He is a lightly raced 3yo who won at T&D at 2nd race start. He is 1st up in this, but has had 2 fairly solid trials to ready him for this. The 1400 will suit him, whereas it may not suit a couple of those above him in the market. Current quote of 16.00 looks more than fair on an ew basis.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Home Made


BEST LAY

Kembla R4 #6 Micks New Chick

She is a last start 1200m winner on this track, stepping up to 1400 for the 1st time. She is 1 of 3 go forward horses in it, if she cops any sort of pressure early, it may make her vulnerable late & there are a couple of horses that will be finishing hard that won’t have a problem with the distance.

2.40 looks a bit thin for a horse that may not get it all its own way & that is also a query at the trip.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Micks New Chick


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