The Race Club: Best Back & Lay

The Race Club are providers of high quality racing information. Every Tuesday & Thursday this spring they will be offering up two of their very best BACK & LAY selections. Check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for the latest odds.


BEST BACK

Port Macquarie | Race 2 | #5 Wild Sheila | 1.50PM AEDT

She was good at her 1st race start over 1200m at Tamworth, where she was last of 7 to turn, then had to change course a couple of times in straight & still worked home well. Stepping up to 1500 at her 2nd race start looks ideal. If the girl can give her a good steer, I think she is the horse to beat & fair value at current quote of $4.50.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Wild Sheila

BEST LAY

Port Macquarie | Race 8 | #3 Total Power  | 5.30PM AEDT

Won his maiden at 1st run over 1200m at Tamworth 17 days ago, where he led all the way setting a moderate tempo, so race couldn’t have been run more to suit, also the opposition was quite ordinary. Up to C1 race here & not a bad one at that, this field is far superior to what he beat at Tamworth. Even if he finds the front here, his dangers will be right on his tail. He looks quite short at current quote of 2.80

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Snippets of Rain

BEST BACK

Quirindi | Race 5 | #6 Princess Pattern | 4.35pm AEDT | save #7 Velaro

She will get back, so will need a little luck, but she does know how to hit the line, there looks a bit of pace i the race, with Dreamnomore sure to roll across from the outside gate, also Apache Lad & Disgraceful should  be on pace in run. Hardest to beat will be the fave Velaro, who should get a nice run in transit in a stalking position & he will appreciate dropping back to 1600 & also the dry surface.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Princess Pattern for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) Velaro for 2 units

BEST LAY

Quirindi | Race 2 | #10 Snippets Of Rain | 2.40PM AEDT

Will most likely lead, but isn’t the strongest conveyance & there looks to be a couple of handy maidens in it, in Supreme Streak & Resinite, who have both only had the 1 start for a 3rd placing each & neither had the best of luck in transit.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Snippets of Rain

BEST BACK

Hawkesbury | Race 8 | #1 Godunov | 

Was a strong winner in this class 14 days ago. He lead all the way, setting a strong clip in doing so. A repeat of that run will be good enough to beat these. Current quote of 3.70 seems quite fair.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Godunov

BEST LAY

Hawkesbury | Race 6 | #2 French Blue | 

Resumed off a 99 week break to lead all the way over this distance in a C1 race at Bathurst. Drops 2kgs here, but this race looks considerably stronger, with 5 or 6 others that can & can’t see her getting her own way in this.

Currently 2nd fave at 5.00 does look a bit short, as I have a few ahead of her in this.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) French Blue

BEST BACK

Randwick | Race 3 | #5 Round of Applause | 1.00pm

He has only had the one start, resulting in a fair 3rd just under 1L behind Restrained (Who won again last Saturday) over 1200 at Newcastle 17 days ago.

He settled in 3rd running line on the fence, raced a bit keen in transit, then had to change course in straight, but still hit the line off only a moderate tempo. Looks a fair EW play at current quote of 17.00.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Round of Applause

BEST LAY

Randwick | Race 1 | #2 Orcein | 11.55pm

This is his 5th run up, he won off a perfect ride in a pretty ordinary maiden line up over 1600m 2nd up. Was fair at his next two starts. He isn’t the most tractable horse, as he has a high head carriage & can also over-race in run.

He is stepping up to 1800m for the 1st time, so there is a good chance he may over-race early here, which will be detrimental to him in the latter stages of the race. He is currently the race fave at 4.00 which looks quite thin considering his 6 opponents all have winning chances.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Orcein

BEST BACK

Sapphire Coast | Race 2 | #2 Gorush Lightning | 2.25pm

Has raced on pace in all of his 6 starts, with most of them being solidly run affairs, steps up to 1608 for 1st time in a race with no other speed in it, s he should find the front without much effort here & if left to control tempo, should be hard to run down.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Gorush Lightning

BEST LAY

Gosford | Race 5 | #3 Rare Episode | 3.55pm

He gapped a maiden field over 1100m here at his 1st start on a Heavy track, but figures weren’t great on the day. He then went to Wyong over this distance, where he looked home turning but tired the last 100m to be btn .9L.

The equal fave in this race is Coterie who is drawn directly outside him & who was an impressive winner of his maiden at Wyong 21 days ago. He was 4 wide in line of 4 for lead early, rider eased back, still wide improved from 600, joined lead 4 wide at 400 & came away late to record a strong win. His form is overall stronger than that of Rare Episode & think he should be the fave.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Rare Episode


Betfair is a low margin exchange, just like Airbnb. We create markets for punters to take on punters. And we want winners.


Oct 30th

BEST BACK

Grafton | Race 1 | #7 Bromach | 1.20pm

Is stepping up to this trip for first time, but he is a last start 2010m winner at Coffs Harbour where he was strong to the line. Run before was 1900m at Armidale where he ran on ok for third off slow tempo. Has hit form as his distances have increased. He comes in on the limit weight, just want him to settle in run and he will be hard to beat.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Bromach

BEST LAY

Stawell | Race 1 | #6 Mischa | 1.30pm

Small field with four first starters and the raced Mischa resuming. She wasn’t disgraced in handy races in her first prep and has jumped out fairly leading into this. I don’t think she is without good competition in the Weir pair, both who have jumped out smart enough to win this. Fairy Song, one of the Weir pair, was sharp and composed. For that reason I’m going against Mischa.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Mischa


Oct 25th

BEST BACK

Hawkesbury | Race 1 | #8 Polhampton | 1.20pm AEDT

He is 1st up from a spell in this, had 2 runs last prep, 1st was one over 1000m he missed the kick, was near last to turn & worked to line ok in a race dominated by 1-2-3 in run.

He then went to midweek over 1200, jumped better from wide out, but was eased back racing a bit keen, went 4 wide turn to only plugged home to be beaten by 4.6L.

Had 1 trial leading into this where he was leaders back well on the bit, so from gate 2 he should race handy in a race that doesn’t have much in it. 14.00 EW looks fair odds.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Polhamton

BEST LAY

Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #1 and #11 All the Wine and Banjos Voice | 3.10pm AEDT

All The Wine is lining up for his 29th start still a maiden & even though this is a prov/ctry restricted maiden, it looks a bit strong for him. 5.50 looks short

Banjo’s Voice has led them up & not been real strong late, last run was 1280 at Orange, where he did do a little work to cross & lead, but tempo was only average, he would’ve finished closer had he not veered into rail & put in a couple rough strides in straight, but was an ordinary ctry mdn. 4.40 looks short as well.

Wild Kingdom & Lexi’s Choice are the 2 hardest to beat.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) All the Wine and Banjos Voice



Oct 23rd

BEST BACK

Muswellbrook | Race 6 | #5 Sunday Swindler | 4.20pm AEDT

He is 1st up in this, he goes well 1st up, handles a rain affected track, races on pace, all positives for this race, as it looks like it will be moderately run, which won’t suit  the fave Yambaah Prince as he gets back.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Sunday Swindler

BEST LAY

Muswellbrook | Race 2 | #10 Macal | 1.55pm AEDT

She has had 4 runs this prep, from 1100 to 1250, she hasn’t looked a like a 900m horse in any of them. She has had a freshen up from winning a trial 25 days ago, but it it in slow time. The unraced fave has trialled better than it.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Macal


Oct 18th

BEST BACK

Moe | Race 9 | #13 Botti | 5.10pm

Botti had his Australian debut over 1755m at Geelong and class prevailed. Traveled, held up in the straight, once out, really knuckled down to win smartly. Step up ideal and was nommed for Saturday but they’ve  elected to come here. He’ll be closer in running from the rails draw, a touch of luck when it matters and he looks to have a bit on these.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Botti

BEST LAY

Moe | Race 8 | #3 Royal Ace | 4.35pm

Sat closer last start over the mile and was only shaded late by a pretty smart one in Mahamedeis. He’s drawn barrier 7 of 9 here with a bit of speed under him and will need luck slotting in.

If they elect to go back and they over do it up front, he still has to get past others with strong finishes in Top Of The Range and Bad Wolf, who I think will both be more forward and get softer runs runs than Royal Ace today. Given the above, even money seems much too skinny to consider.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Royal Ace


Oct 16th

BEST BACK

Newcastle | Race 5 | #3 Front View | 4.20pm

His 2nd to Carano over 1600m at Gosford on 14/8 was a very good run, then had 6 weeks gap until 28/9 where he trialled over 1200 at Gosford, he went very well in open trial running 2nd to Sense of Occasion & looked to trial better than it. looks a fair price. The closer to a Good 4 rating, the better his chances. 7.00 ew

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Front View

BEST LAY

Newcastle | Race 1 | #3 Shadow Bridge| 1.50pm

Although this horse has trialled well on 2 occasions leading into this, he did race a bit hard in his last one. Another concern is it’s been 25 days since last trial, making it 39 days since 1st trial, quite a long time for a horse going into a 900m race. I also have a doubt about him finding lead as horse in gate has speed & the 2nd fave Paris Lights, aside from missing the jump, she went quite well in her trial 21 days ago & think she is the horse to beat if she jumps away with them.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Shadow Bridge


Oct 11th

BEST BACK

Wyong | Race 8 | #8 Celer| 5.25pm

He was very good in running 3rd to Power Rush beaten 1.26L 1st up over 1000m here 18 days ago. He looks to get a solid speed to follow. If the inside is fine come the last, then save on Sophiella.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Celer

BEST LAY

Wyong | Race 1 | #7 Segalas  | 1.05pm

Only had the one start, it was over 1200m here 18 days ago, where it had every chance sitting OSL in a slowly run race. It hit the lead turning and got run down to be beaten 1L. If it handles the Heavy, it will be hard to beat, but you don’t want those queries when taking 1.85.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Segalas

BEST LAY

Wyong | Race 5 | #3 Fast Train | 3.35pm

This looks a risky lay as the horse couldn’t have been more impressive in destroying a maiden field by 6.33L over 1800m at Hawkesbury 21 days ago. He was on pace in a fast run race and had it won before the turn, but he also over-raced for close to the 1st 1000m. If he over-races again here with an extra 300m to travel and on a heavy track, he may be vulnerable late. For those reasons I think 1.85 is a touch short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Fast Train 


Oct 9th

BEST BACK

Goulburn | Race 3 | #4 Maid in Milan | 2.25pm

Looks to lead at her leisure here, has only had 2 race starts & went well in both. 1st one she was chasing the smart Mansa Musa over 1100 at Gosford. She then stepped up to this distance at Bathurst for a narrow win, but it was more impressive than it looked, as she, jumped well then half got shuffled back to midfield when rider grabbed, overraced for a couple hundred metres in race that tempo suited leaders.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Maid in Milan

BEST LAY

Goulburn | Race 7 | #3 King’s Peak | 4.50pm

His paper form is the strongest in the race, but I think it’s a touch flattering. 1st start was in a maiden a lot stronger than this one, but he only plugged away to run 5th of 8 btn over 5L on a Soft 7. 2nd run he ran 2nd in a weak maiden at Kembla, where he ran on from well back, but race was fast run, winner did a good job to lead all the way, he ran on due to winner getting tired in run to line & not to mention they came home in slow figures.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) King’s Peak


Oct 4th

BEST BACK

Wangaratta | Race 3 | #13 Lecture | 2.30pm

Going with the first starter Lecture here in what looks a maiden that lacks much depth. Has been very sharp in recent jump outs, showing good early speed and in the most recent, getting to the line with a bit still under her.

She should cross from the barrier to sit handy to the speed and I think she’ll be very hard to beat. Her current quote seems more than fair.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Lecture

BEST LAY

Gosford | Race 7 | #3 Spin Bowles | 4.50pm

He is an average conveyance & been beaten in weaker races than this one. His 1st up run was ok, when he ran on from well back to run 3rd btn 3.25L to Cyclonite over 1000m at Hawkesbury, but flattered by the fast pace.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Spin Bowles


Oct 2nd

BEST BACK

Coffs Harbour| Race 3 | #3 Gunnaza, save on #6 Super Tonic | 2.40pm

Gunnaza should find the lead fairly easily here, exactly how you want a short course leader to find lead. If he does find it easy, he will hard to run down. 1000 is his best distance & his stats at this C&D are 4:2-1-1.

Save on his danger, the fave Super Tonic, who is 5 from 10 & 1 from 1 at C&D.  She should be fairly handy in run being 1st up & the small field will suit.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Gunnaza

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Super Tonic

BEST LAY

Nowra | Race 1 | #4 Graterra | 1.50pm

1st starter from a good stable & comes up with barrier 1, but that may not be enough. He has had 2 trials, the 1st ordinary, 2nd was a bit better but still not real flash. The horse drawn next to him, Commissioner has better race form than Graterra has trial form & is the horse to beat.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Graterra

Sep 27

BEST BACK

Hawkesbury | Race 8 | #9 Happy Partner | 5.20pm

He is coming into this off what looked a below average run last start, it was over 2100m at Gosford, he was well off pace in a moderately run race, he made his run 750 out, loomed up on turn, then only plugged on the last 200, but rider dropped his whip there & horse basically ran to line under his own steam.

He is back to 1800 here, where he as acquitted himself well previously & the Soft 7 track will suit him, whereas it won’t all of his opposition. At 21.00 he looks value on an ew basis.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Happy Partner

BEST LAY

Hawkesbury | Race 5 | #5 Another Shadow | 3.25pm

It was our back last week and was beaten the nose in the last bound at huge odds. Today it steps up from 1100 to 1300, which may not suit as well. Also the field is a fraction stronger & she is only 4.00.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Another Shadow


Sep 25

BEST BACK

Grafton | Race 2 | #4 Smokin Suzy | 1:45pm

Smokin’ Suzy is resuming here, her previous form is only average. She ran third in trial, where she was beaten over 9L, but she wasn’t let go. The winner of the trial was Cheat’m, is a fast horse that’s won three races & he was ridden along the lat 150m. Smokin’ Suzy has drawn a nice gate, in what looks an average maiden field & at around the 19.00 mark, looks a fair ew play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Smokin Suzy

BEST LAY

Mildura | Race 7 | #2 Solsay | 4:30pm

Solsay comes up quite short here considering he was gifted the win last start this C&D. The field was pushed wide by a rogue runner and he avoided congestion to sneak away. He is drawn outside a bit of speed making him vulnerable in running and I don’t think carrying the extra 2kg he will be able to pick them up if they elect to settle worse than midfield.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Solsay


Sep 20

BEST BACK

Hawkesbury | Race 3 | #5 Another Shadow | 2:10pm

Her form on paper is terrible, but this is a very ordinary maiden race that is restricted to provincial & country trained horses. Even though she was beaten 6.5L 1st up over 1300m here, she was wide all the way in a solidly run race, she also overraced in it, suggesting drop back to 1100m should suit it better.

With C.Brown to do the steering today, she should get every chance & is worth an EW ticket at 34.00.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Another Shadow

BEST LAY

Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #2 Grand Soleil | 2:40pm

This horse has its share of ability, but is its own worst enemy, the way it gets head up & overrraces early in its races. She did it two runs back over this distance at Taree & got away with the win. She did work early there so was still fairly impressive, but looked better than it was as tempo wise, on pace was place to be.

She has a top rider in Avdulla up today & if he can settle her, she will be hard to beat, but doubt he will be able to.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Grand Soleil


Sep 18

BEST BACK

Kembla Grange | Race 7 | #2 Ligulate | 4:40pm

She was fair in winning first up here over 1000m, then up to this trip at Randwick 14 days later, where she was eased back to near tail early. Was wide all the way and still worked home well to be only beaten 2.9L into sixth place.

Hopefully from gate 1, her rider is a touch more positive and has her closer in run.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Ligulate

BEST LAY

Kembla Grange | Race 6 | #2 Veranes | 4:05pm

The race has fallen away due to scratchings and now not a lot of depth to the race, but I don’t think there is a lot of depth to Veranes either.

She hasn’t done a lot in her two runs in NSW, her last start third at Wyong over 1200m was only average and in average figures. At the current quote of $1.60, shes too short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Veranes


Sep 13

BEST BACK

Grafton | Race 6 | #9 Manhattan Road | 2:45pm

This horse is currently way too long in the market at around 71.00. He is second up here and his second up form is ordinary. However, so is his first up form. Did run a nice closing fifth first up over 1250m at Kempsey 19 days ago, where he worked home well late off a moderate tempo. He has raced against and beaten better company than this.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Manhattan Road

BEST LAY

Grafton | Race 2 | #11 Jahez | 12:25pm

An ex Godolphin horse, starting for the first time under racing conditions here. It led all the way to win a trial in average fashion over 1006m here 12 days ago. Now lines up in a fairly strong looking maiden and at current price of $6.00 it looks very well found.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Jahez


Sep 11

BEST BACK

Tamworth | Race 3 | #2 Maui Princess | 2:10pm

You could make a case against a horse that was an odds on pop, beaten over 5l by a 33/1 outsider at its last run, but she got too far back from her draw, ran on well late to run 2nd, after going very wide on home turn, while the winner led all the way and ran excellent figures in doing so.

Today’s race is an extra 200m in distance, she is drawn in closer, which will enable her to settle closer to speed, both big positives. Autumn Ridge has trialled up nicely and worthy of a small save to ‘chop out’ on if it wins.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Maui Princess

BEST LAY

Tamworth | Race 5 | #5 Hammoon Bridge | 3:25pm

She’s had two starts for its new trainer, both this distance and both good runs. She led at a solid speed on both occasions. The first time run down at Quirindi to be beaten .75L by Albert of Monaco, then went to Dubbo on a Heavy 9, led all the way, pulled hard and still bolted in by over 7L.

But, her dangers were nowhere near her in run, whereas today she is up in class, both on official grading of race and actual field strength. Furthermore, there will be a few stalking her in running with five or six of them that can all win.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Hammoon Bridge

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