The Race Club: Best Back & Lay

Gosford | Race 6 | #11 Crete

Crete is only a lightly raced mare who is up to 2100m for the 1st time, which she should appreciate judging by her closing 3rd over 1900m at this track at her last run.

With the apprentices claim, she is in receipt of from 2.5kgs to 7.5kgs of the field. She has drawn a nice gate & if she gets a fair steer, looks a good ew chance.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crete

Gosford | Race 4 | #4 Kedah

She has won her first 2 starts, but has been beaten at her subsequent 4 runs & none of them have had a flashing light on them. She does get B.Avdulla taking over from A.Bullock today, but he didn’t do much wrong on her last run. This isn’t a strong field by any stretch, but if she isn’t at or near her best, there are 4 of the 5 opponents that can easily win it.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Kedah

Kempsey | Race 1 | #1 Red Heat & #7 Toten

Red Heat should get a lovely run in transit, most likely 3rd or 4th in run. She comes into this off a solid win over 1600m at Taree 10 days ago, step up to 1900 is a plus, this field is slightly weaker than her last start & she’s also raced well in better fields prior. The dry track is a plus.

Toten may struggle to beat the fave & has only won the one race from 27 starts, but this is only his 3rd run beyond 1700m. His last run was over 2000m at Taree, where he did tough being 3 wide the trip, the run was far better than it looked & no surprise to see him figure in the placings.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Red Heat

 BACK – Toten

Kempsey | Race 2 |  #11 Show Tickets

She is making her debut in what looks only an average lineup on paper. She does have a bit going for her being from the powerful K.Lees stable with a good rider & barrier, but I have been over-enthused in any of her 4 trials to date. Allares looks the horse they all have to beat.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Show Tickets

Scone | Race 4 | #3 Tann Hills and #9 Speed Camera

Tann Hills comes into this off a strong win over this T&D at last run. It was his go at the trip and he ran it out strongly. The horse is only in 1st prep so has plenty of upside and if reproduces last run, then should go close in this. Current odds of 12.00 seems quite fair.

Speed Camera has raced against stronger opposition than she meets here and has acquitted herself well, winning once & placing another 7 times out of her 15 starts. NB 13 of the 15 runs were at the provincials. She also looks quite a decent price at 8.00.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Tann Hills

 BACK – Speed Camera

Scone | Race 2 | #1 Martha Heights and #5 Strapping Conquest

Martha Heights won 1st up in maiden over 1200m at Bathurst and although she gapped them, she beat nothing. She then had 2 runs over 1300 and only went ok. Not sure drop back to 1100 is ideal for her.

Strapping Conquest is a last start maiden winner over 1020m at Dubbo. The 1100m shouldn’t be a problem but the class rise is her concern. Between the 2 of them, they currently take up half of the market which I think is a bit tight, as the other 2 live chances (Snipex Abaa and Without Conviction) both have stronger form lines. Snipex should lead & be hard to run down, while Without Conviction will be getting home.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Martha Heights

 LAY (WIN) – Strapping Conquest

Hawkesbury  | Race 8 | #14 First Lady

She is racing very well this prep & each run has been better than the previous. Steps up to 1800 for 1st time, but gives every indication that it will suit.

Missed a bob of the heads finish to One Fire Beach at the latest run, it was over 1600 at Gosford, she meets that horse 1.5kgs better today. She should sit midfield or a touch forward of it in run & looks fair value at the current quote of 12.00.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – First Lady

Hawkesbury  | Race 7 | #1 Manly Cove and #2 Lord Zoulander

Both of these are leaders/on pacers in a race where there looks to be plenty of early speed, so expect this race is won by a stalker/off pacer. Their combined % is currently just under 50%, pretty skinny when neither looks to get an easy run in transit, so much rather be against them than for them.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Manly Cove

 LAY (WIN) – Lord Zoulander

Ballarat  | Race 8 | #4 Telemarketer

Interested in one at good odds here in Telemarketer who resumes on his home track. He ran some nice races last time in and seems comfortable on this going in two recent jump-outs, he closed off nicely over 1000m before being run off his feet when placing behind the talented Seven Castles over 850m in the latest.

He maps to sit midfield and have an opportunity to prove whether he is good enough.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Telemarketer

Cessnock | Race 4 | #6 Mon Petite Fille

Although she is a last start winner at this T&D, she did draw the rails there to win by 0.61L in only average time. Her task has been made a lot easier in this with 2 speed horses who were both drawn under her now scratched, but she still may not find the rail as Dark Elixir & Rebecca’s Quest both have early speed & both have drawn inside her.

Her current quote of 1.60 looks quite short

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Mon Petite Fille

Kembla Grange | Race 7 | #9 Frascati Miss

She will be far more suited to this T&D than her last start assignment. She has run good races without much luck this prep, but with a bit of luck in this, I expect she’ll be hard to beat. She looks a fair ew play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Frascati Miss

Kembla Grange | Race 4 | #1 Cover Ops

Horse has raced in better company than this, but can do a few things wrong & if he does in this, then he’s a chance of being in a tricky spot on the rail & if they ride him for speed he may get company up front. Prepared to risk him at the price considering those factors.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Covert Ops

Wyong | Race 6 | #1 Mr Plow and #2 Flash Palace

Both of these won’t be far off the pace settling & both have 3kg claimers up, so they come in well at the weights. MP is 1st up off a solid trial win, while Flash Palace was a solid winner over 1200 at Kembla at his last run. Both will appreciate the 1350m.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Flash Palace for 0.66 units

 BACK – Mr Plow for 0.33 units

Wyong | Race 4 | #4 Icebath and #8 Street Scream

Although they have the market cornered as one is 2.30 & the other 2.40 in what looks a fairly thin maiden, Icebath has the far superior paper form, but she has gotten back in her runs, so does she get into a slot early from gate 9.

Street Scream is unraced, but has been to the trials on 4 occasions spaced over 2 preps. He won 1st 2 in 1st prep & won 1st trial this prep & 3rd in his last one, with none of the being outstanding. He has drawn the rails with Avdulla riding so does a bit going for him there, but short enough by the same token. Their combined % will be deep in the red, so worth a risk.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Icebath

 LAY (WIN) – Street Scream

Gosford | Race 5 | #9 Kariba

Kariba ran a strong 2nd at her 1st start, her next 2 runs she didn’t have the best of luck in & were both forgive runs. She has drawn a nice gate in 4, from which she should settle fairly close to the speed in what looks a fairly thin maiden. I think she looks a fair ew play at her current quote of 10.00

Betting Strategy

 BACK (EW) – Kariba

Moree | Race 1 | #8 Glamour Factor

Although she possesses early speed which is normally a prerequisite for a 950m race, she isn’t the strongest conveyance having raced 11 times for only 2 placings. I doubt she finds the lead on her own in this & may not even lead at all, so the current quote of 2.50 looks a bit thin about her.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Glamour Factor

Ballarat | Race 6 | #1 Captain Crackerjak

Captain Crakerjak can give an almighty sight here. He boasts a strong fresh record including a second last time in to All Too Royal who went on to run well in better grade, notably there was a good gap to 3rd there. His recent jump out here with a light weight was very slick work. I clocked it much quicker than the club time and expect he holds the fence and is in this for a very long way. Happy to play EW.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (EW) – Captain Crackerjak

Albury | Race 7 | #8 Gagosian

Has only won 3 from 35 & only up to 1400m. Horse has had 6 goes at 1600 for two 2nds, one of those at his last start, but he’s had 13 goes on Soft to Heavy for only 3 placings & he is on a Heavy 10 here.

Also has drawn the inside gate on a track where they scout wide when the surface is rain affected. He is currently the 2nd fave at 4.00 which looks a bit thin for a horse whose wet track form is only ordinary & he could also end up in the wrong part of the track.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Gagosian

Kembla Grange | Race 2 | #6 Carambola

Horse is coming off 0.9L 3rd to More Than A Horse at this T&D at her last start. She looked to have them covered until she just knocked up the last 100m. This field looks weaker & yet she is a similar price. She looks the one they all have to beat.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) –  Carambola

Kembla Grange | Race 5 | #8 Best Stone

She is making her debut off a couple of fair trials, but she hasn’t been the best to leave the gates in those trials & should she be slowly away from gate 7, she’s a chance of getting lost in the field, so not keen about taking short odds about a conveyance like that.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Best Stone

Pakenham | Race 4 | #5 Reliable Son

Like what I’ve seen from Reliable Son, who trialled nicely last Monday when second to Blood Oath but was certainly not asked for the same effort as the winner. He had jumped out well last preparation and again this time around, and this trainer/jockey combination have a formidable strike rate.

The gate is the main concern. No doubt Memphis Rock is hard to beat but as the main danger the map looks even trickier for him.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) –  Reliable Son

Pakenham | Race 1 | #1 Almighty Will

Had his first start early June off two good trials and put in an even effort over 1000m. Draws out here with a couple of first starters drawn under that can hold prominent positions in running.

With that, Almighty Will is every chance of working in the run and is too short at his current quote.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Almighty Will

Hawkesbury | Race 7 | #8 Parlour

Parlours is the horse I’m keen on in this, she is a last start winner over this T&D & although race was run in slow time, she did a good job to give the leader close to 3L start turning then reel her in to win by 0.4L. Snips is the fave & can no doubt win, also has that man B.Shinn up, so it won’t be due to a bad steer if he gets rolled.

2nd fave is Secretly, she has had 1 start for an easy win over 1200 at Kembla, but figures were only average. I think Parlour is the horse with upside, just need her to land in a fair spot in transit to give her a good hope. She looks good value on an ew basis at current quote

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Parlour

Hawkesbury | Race 1 | #1 Disco Mo

Although Disco Mo has run two 2nds & one of them in a city midweek maiden, none of his runs have really had a back me next time written on them. He has one big advantage in this however, it’s B.Shinn, who is riding as well as if not better than any jock in the country, but not sure that’ll be enough, especially if T.Berry doesn’t give away a ridiculous start to him on Judicator.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Disco Mo

Ballarat | Race 3 | #6 Stylish Pattern

Three starts for three solid placings on the synthetic this season. He finished in front of Muwarrad (favourite here) two back over 1400m. Although Muwarrad was held up having to switch out before running on, Stylish Pattern worked a shade early to hold a spot osl, setting better than evens to box on best of the on pacers. He has since run a strong 2nd over the same trip being held up at a key time in the straight whist the winner had all momentum down the outer.

I like him out to 1500m and there doesn’t appear much speed drawn below him, so expect he crosses handy and will taking pinning back. Muwarrad is the clear danger, just how far off the speed he settles is the query. Has upside but too short here. Happy to back Stylish Pattern at the price.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Stylish Pattern

Gosford | Race 2 | #1 Discombe

Horse had only had 4 starts & hasn’t finished further back than 4th in any of them, but he has had every chance in all of them, he has led in all 4  run over in all 4. He may not get control in this & if he doesn’t, he may struggle to hold them off. Current quote of 1.75 looks a bit thin considering he may not be left to dictate.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Discombe

Kembla | Race 5 | #9 My Sweet Fish

She is 2nd up today off a 1st up unplaced run at Cessnock where she was given little hope being back at the rear throughout. Expect rider is more positive on her today & if he is left to lead on her, she may prove hard to run down.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – My Sweet Fish

Kembla | Race 7 | #2 Morpheus

He is 1st up on a Heavy 10 surface, has had 4 1st up runs for 2 placings, 1 go on Heavy for unplaced effort & he has drawn the rails in this which isn’t the place to be. There are 4 or 5 oher chances in the race, so at current quote of 3.00, it looks a bit thin.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Morpheus

Hawkesbury | Race 2 | #6 Miss Goodnight

She is 1st up off a nice trial leading into this, where she was restrained back to 2nd last about 6L off the lead at 600, there to turn, then worked home well under her own steam to run 4th btn 3.4L.

She has placed on Soft going & is in a stable that does get them ready 1st up. If her trial is anything to go by, I think she has a good ew chance.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Miss Goodnight

Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #5 Waka

He is 1st up, has drawn the inside gate on a Heavy track, has been off pace in all its 4 runs to date & there doesn’t look much early speed in this, so will need a good steer &/or good luck, also every one of its opponents have live chances.

Waka is the current fave at 3.10 which looks a bit thin with the shape of the race.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Waka

Tamworth | Race 1 | #2 Euroglider

Euroglider is having his 1st start in NSW since coming from SA. He had 3 runs over there for two 3rds & a 5th. He has had one barrier trial; it was over this distance at Armidale, where he went head and head with one of his stablemates until they turned for home.

He soon dropped it off and then about 100m out was given the lightest of squeezes to record a very easy win. I think he lands either in front, most likely in 2nd spot if Swiglars goes to early lead. The other two in the money are a good chance of being off pace which isn’t ideal around this circuit.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Euroglider

Ballarat | Race 4 | #12 Miss Scalini

Miss Scalini is from the very formidable stable on the synthetic in Hayes and Dabernig. However, she was afforded a pretty easy time of it up front last start over 1100m.

Headed at 200m, fought back to go down late. I doubt she gets the luxury of an easy time on pace and back to 1000m doesn’t appeal off her last run. Too short here.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Miss Scalini

Gosford | Race 5 | #8 Glamour Fox

She ran an excellent 4th 1st up over this distance at Nowra, where she jumped well from wide gate & then was dragged back to near the tail some 5-6L off lead, still there to turn & from there she rattled home to be btn 2.7L to Snips.

From gate 1 in this, I expect she holds leaders back, or 3rd in run at worst & proves very hard to hold out.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Glamour Fox

Gosford | Race 5 | #2 Money Travels

He was fair 2nd over this distance at Wyong at his last run, but had a nice run throughout in a race that only recorded ordinary figures.

He has previously been btn in maidens in the country & his normal pattern is be get off pace, so he’ll most likely be behind his 3 main dangers in the run in this & I’ll be surprised if he can run them down. He is currently 4.20 which does look a bit tight.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Money Travels

Quirindi | Race 3 | #7 The Outcast

The Outcast is coming into this off a very easy win at his last start, it was over 1500m at Muswellbrook & although dropping back 50m here, it isn’t of major concern, as he hit the lead at the top of the straight at his last run.

He has drawn a nice gate here & I’d expect he is as close or even closer in run than last start. Favourite Scarlett Missile can win but is a chance of being posted. Happy to be with The Outcast at current quote, comfortable EW play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – The Outcast

Pakenham | Race 4 | #1 Afrikaans

This filly is third-up after putting in an improved effort over 1400m last start. However, she did receive a saloon passage and every chance considering how the race was run. It was an even effort and she may be after more ground now.

Satin Sashes’ run had a lot more merit after being bottled up in the straight last start over 1100m. She is also third-up and I think she should be favourite here. Against Afrikaans at the quote.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Afrikaans

Seymour | Race 5 | #3 Bill the Bee

This horse fair dinkum double barrelled non-stop for four laps of the Caulfield mounting yard last start and still ran third behind a very strong winter form line through Zoutori and is bred to get better out over this sort of distance.

I really liked the way he fought on at the end of that event and this is a big drop back in class, he just needs to behave pre-race and begin cleanly to be very hard to beat.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Bill the Bee

Seymour | Race 2 | #1 Bissel

5YO grey resuming after a three year break. Reported sinus issues. Has had one start in the heavy over 1400m, where he was the short priced favourite. He has jumped out well enough leading in. Never under pressure and for me, that is going to be the query.

Expect he holds a forward position and gets every chance. Mick Price holds a fair hand and I’d rather be looking at the value there than take odds on about a horse whose had significant issue. Against.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Bissel

Wagga | Race 5 | #5 Hilltop Hood (Scratched)

Hilltop Hood is 3rd up in this, coming off first two runs this prep being over 1600m. First one was around Queanbeyan where he got a long way back before running on well to run 3rd btn 1.03L. Second up was at Canberra where he sat 5th in run, loomed up to join lead 4 wide turning, to race away an easy 2.9L winner. He also recorded good figures on the day.

If he gets a similar run in transit in this, I think he puts them away again. Note: Will handle track whether it is Good or Soft.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Hilltop Hood (Scratched)

Casterton | Race 6 | #1 Evil Cry

Sharp enough winner second up over 1100m making ground from a three wide midfield position to take it out. He is the best horse here but where he gets to from the wide draw is a query as is the likely tempo of the race should he go back – which is a fair assumption that he will.

I can make cases for La Lova and Mai Shiny Choice, both drawn in, both will be on pace and both effective in the wet. Happy to be against the top weight at the price.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Evil Cry

Bathurst | Race 5 | #11 Fast Fever

The step up to 1800m & drop in class will both suit, as will the good draw. This should enable him to get nice and close to the pace in a race that looks like will only be moderately run. He has a 4th place to Duchess Of Lennox over 1600, then last run had a hard run where he was 3 & 4 wide the trip. Current quote of 9.00 looks more than fair.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Final Crown

Bathurst | Race 1 | #1 Abraded

Not sure it is suited to 1200 around this circuit. Abraded will most likely be behind his 2 main dangers in its run and it doesn’t look like it will be run at any tempo, so that’ll make it harder for him to give them a start and a beating. Current quote of 3.30 looks a bit thin under those circumstances.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Abraded