The Race Club: Best Back & Lay

Cessnock | Race 7 | #7 A Fortunate Lass & #1 Kosciusko

A Fortunate Lass had trialled quite well before a somewhat forgive run fresh. She was deep no cover at solid fractions before being hampered over the final furlong. Draws low, early toe and some give in the ground all in favour. Kosciusko should be able to tag across and he is the other main hope. Sound from the front last start over 1100m being beaten off late. Happy to back both.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – A Fortunate Lass for 0.5 Units

BACK (WIN) – Kosciusko for 0.5 Units

Cessnock | Race 3 | #1 Daltoro

Trialled well before a sound debut. He didn’t race at all tractable yet was still able to finish off well. The nose roll comes off today and back to 900m, expect they just let him go. I don’t think there is much depth to this race, however, Daltoro is not a backing prospect given his set up and manners. Against.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Daltoro

Gosford | Race 7 | Skyray

Trialled on two occasions having blinkers on in the latest of those. He mustered up midfield the rail and was very strong holding a margin late. He’ll need a little luck getting off rail but expect they roll to the middle and he’ll be pushing through late. Knock on favourite, Salina Dreaming is the draw with plenty drawn under her. Smart horse but ambiguous set up. Happy to back

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Skyray for 0.5 Units Each Way.

Gosford | Race 3 | Great News and Bowery Breeze

Great News won well resuming in fair figures and the step up to 1200m suits. Unsure where she gets in running, likely has to take a sit and come around them. First look at an affected track. Bowery Breeze is favoured on a heavy surface but does have a tricky draw to contend with. Likely 3 and 4 back the fence and I’m not entirely sure about the 1200m either.

Stratum Charge and Missile Heat both represent some value. I’d rather lay the two market fancies and look to make something on the longer priced runners also.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Great News

LAY (WIN) – Bowery Breeze

Armidale | Race 6 | Rose Of Savannah

Didn’t like the drop back to 1200m last start, now out to 1400m, at this level, she should be hard to beat. One win in 20 starts rarely bodes well but she has raced in far better class than today’s field and takes 2.5kg off her main danger, Souchong. From a forward position, expect that is enough for her to hold them at bay.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Rose Of Savannah

Armidale | Race 3 | She’s Unusual

She was bloused late from the tail at this trip two back and I can understand the move to step out in distance last start. She boxed on evenly there and I think now back to 1100m suits. She looks to track an ok speed and will get every chance today, however, I have Knickerbockerglory ahead of her on the back of a neat trial and Sapphire Step an improver at odds. With that, happy to be against She’s Unusual at the short quote.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – She’s Unusual

Hawkesbury | Race 5 | Tepario & Miss Sure Shot 

Small but competitive field and looking to be against the early favourite, East Asia. Tepario has trialled well enough to be a strong hope. Latest of those, deep, in good company, on a soft 7 and responded well to take out the heat. She gets a great run here.

Miss Sure Shot is better set up today. She has been taken back both starts this time in, running on well. Although beaten both sides last start, figures were good and she likely needed this trip then. Expect she is forward today. Happy to play both.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Tepario for 1 unit. 

BACK (WIN) – Miss Sure Shot for 0.5 units

Wagga | Race 1 | Yulong Power

Stable change with a fair enough trial leading in. Ideally, he’d be suited over. He’ll likely press and hold the rail however I have the debutante, Lady Brook on top with Eastern Breeze tighter in my market. Happy to be against Yulong Power.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Yulong Power

Moe | Race 1 | Ronniejay and Miss Divine Em

Ronniejay is going ok at the jump outs, a win last preparation when under urging to defeat the talented Larimer Street, a quiet one at the start of the preparation and then a handy win in the latest. Looks like he wants a bit further but has enough natural talent to be on speed and give this a shake.

Miss Divine Em the other I’ll be including. Liked what she’d shown at the jump outs last year and certainly wasn’t disgraced behind the speedy Gasworx at Kyneton recently.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Ronnie Jay for 1 unit

BACK (WIN) – Miss Divine Em for 0.5 units

Kembla Grange | Race 5 | Pioneer

There’s enough query around Pioneer to be against at the shorts. Very deep into prep, doubtful 1200m suits now and pads go on. This isn’t much of a race and that bodes well for Tawaret resuming. Can’t get Pioneer that short, so I’ll be opposing today.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Pioneer

Wyong | Race 3 | Tycoonist

Quite liked the trials of TYCOONIST leading in. He showed good toe and was able to settle, running sound time in the latest. Draws to effect and expecting he lands in behind the pace setters. If he runs up to his trials, I think he’ll be right in the finish in what is otherwise an open race.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Tycoonist for 0.5 units

Wyong | Race 5 | Significance

The inconsistencies of Significance point toward issues. Coughing post-race last start as a drifting favourite. That was on the back of an emphatic maiden win this C&D. Obviously has a good level of ability but we can’t ignore throwing a bad run in every other race. I have Mr Costigan closer in the market and Benefica Maid hardest to beat.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Significance

Taree | Race 5 | Forever Jude

He ran on well in an ok rating race over 1400m last start. Hasn’t seen the mile but gives indication that will suit. He has had a tighten up at the trials and given the anticipated tempo, expect him to be finishing as good as any.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Forever Jude for 0.5 units EW

Taree | Race 3 | Dr Copper and Hyperlink

Dr Copper was sound fresh off a year long spell behind Irish Thunder, who goes around a red hot favourite in race 1. Figures were ok and I expect the step up in trip suits. Some reservation around his set up and on top of the ground.

I wasn’t overly taken by the trials of Hyperlink leading into today, she didn’t appear to have a whole lot under the hood. Happy to be against both these runners at short quotes with the resuming Dante Alexander a good hope at odds.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Dr Copper

LAY (WIN) – Hyperlink

Kembla Grange | Race 7 | Art Cadeau

Super on debut, rating very highly in winning. Tipped out and resumed over 1000m last start where he was bailed up early in the straight, racing tight on the rail till late in the piece, again, recording good figures. He has upside and although this is his first look at 1200m, his figures say he’ll see it. He’ll be ahead of his main dangers in running and happy to back him in to progress.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Art Cadeau for 0.5 units EW

Kembla Grange | Race 3 | San Antonio

Very well backed in early markets off two sound trials leading in. First of those, pushed out, the latest, cruised around deep and finished off under his own steam. Concern is the days between trial to track and just I can’t get him that short. There are other key hopes in Andermatt at big odds and Hoopla. Happy to be against San Antonio at the quote.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – San Antonio

Wyong | Race 3 | Segosha

She is the pick of the first starters on the back of two neat trials this time leading in. The latest of those had plenty of merit and loved the way she responded to a shrug. She has early toe but likely takes a back given the speed under her. Any luck in running, I think she is the horse to beat.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Segosha

Wyong | Race 2 | Lando Bay

Even resuming and I thought ideally he’d be up in trip off that effort. Granted this is weaker and he has been well backed his past four starts, so there is speculation on his ability. With the distance, I’ll oppose, with the top weight being the horse to beat.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Lando Bay

Sale | Race 2 | Bless Her

Bless Her has shown a bit in her career to date, the highlight of which when only being overhauled late last time by the talented Excelman. She closed off well under a grip at Cranbourne for this and I think is the one they all need to beat.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Bless Her

Kembla Grange | Race 3 | Duenna

It does look a race in two and although Duenna hasn’t done a lot wrong, I do think the resuming Krameric is the one to hold out. He was given a very soft trial leading in and can slide across to track Duenna in running. I have them closer in the market, with Duenna past evens. With that, opposing her at the price.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Duenna

Newcastle | Race 6 | We Could Be Heroes

He has had three starts this time in, all at 1200m. He has drawn deep in his last two and gone back by default, finishing off well. His last start in particular indicated he is after further ground. Up in trip, drawn low and back in grade, I have him shorter in what is a pretty even field, so happy to back EW.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – We Could Be Heroes for 0.3 units Win x 0.7 units the Place

Newcastle | Race 1 | Gogol

Although I don’t think hopeless, he is a little short here. The lack of pressure on paper and slight step up in trip falls in his favour. However, there are a few query runners and it’s just a little messy. I have She’s So Savvy on top, conceding her risk is a slow get away and may be after further. Going against Gogol.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Gogol

Scone | Race 6 | Radiant Choice

The one I’m interested in EW is Radiant Choice who comes into this off a fast finishing 3rd last start over this trip. They’ve put the blinkers back on him today which I think is a key gear change. I anticipate positive tactics from the low draw and worth a play against the favourite.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Radiant Choice for 0.5 units each-way

Scone | Race 6 | Strawb

Stawb resumed and won very smartly. Missed the kick 3L, sat last, looped and won softly 2.5L. Time good, a sharp turn of foot – and sustained. Makes a fair case, however, she may be vulnerable on a good 3 surface in a race not likely as favourable as that win.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Strawb

Scone | Race 1 | Inferno Miss

She was wide, no cover, on pace last start over this trip and boxed on to just miss. Not overly disadvantaged being deep given the average tempo and the overall time was only fair. Not a fan of a three day back up on that and there are two runners in Big Talk and Shukkas I can make cases for. Happy to be against at that quote.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Inferno Miss

Wyong | Race 3 | #Savaspur

Resuming gelded, I think Savaspur has come up quite short given the lead in trial. He is likely off pace and will have the Ryan pair, Secretly Awesome and Super Dancer in front of him. I have those two clear from the rest, so I’m happy to oppose Savaspur.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Savaspur

Goulburn | Race 7 | #1 Juaphikoa

He trialled quite well off a year-long spell before a solid run fresh. Showed good early speed there and boxed on ok in what was a slick 1100m race. He is suited up to 1200m and on a day I anticipate those forward will be advantaged, he is generous odds. Happy to play EW.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Juaphikoa for 0.5 units each-way

Newcastle | Race 7 | #3 Anubis and #12 Big Bad Bruce

Anubis resumes a gelding and has trialed up well leading in. Given a slap, lengthened, soft on line. Should get a nice cart leaders back and he’ll get every chance.

I’ve loved everything about Big Bad Bruce’s prep thus far. Good merit first up over 1200m, followed by a solid run over 1350m when deep throughout, in trying conditions and on an unsuitable track. He draws out here which hurts but if he can find a back early, I think he is in the finish.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Anubis for 1 unit and Big Bad Bruce for 0.5 units

Newcastle | Race 3 | #4 From the Hip

Trialled well enough back in March and has subsequently been scratched at the barriers from then till now. Draws out and I have Stooge as a clear favourite today from Jokes. Happy to be against today.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – From the Hip

Wyong | Race 3 | #6 Qinghai Lake

Two very good trials leading in. He recorded top race closing figures over 1100m on a soft 7 on debut. Suited better at 1350m fresh. No doubt the favourite, Duty is hard to beat but he would be suited more if the track dried out. There is enough discrepancy in their prices to play Qinghai Lake EW

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN/PLACE) – Qinghai Lake  0.3U WIN x 0.7U PLC

Wyong | Race 7 | #9 Trajection

No doubt she has her fair share of ability but she’ll need to take another step up here given her set up from the barrier and having to take on some very seasoned gallopers. I have both Kulnura and Art Of More closer in the market. Happy to oppose Trajection at the odds.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Trajection

Bendigo | Race 7 | #6 Evening Glory

Resumes on the back of an ok jump out, pushed late. Would be more in favour had the track been downgraded. Tough map and a few ahead of him in running will take getting passed. Mainly Nerone. Happy to be against at the quote.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Evening Glory

Kembla Grange | Race 7 | #3 Buzz and #13 Oribella

Days between runs would normally be a query but not so much for Buzz. Form around him is sound and the figures from his last couple have him right in this. The query is if he gets the 1400m but from a map perspective he’ll give himself every hope. Expect they’re positive on him.

As with Oribella. Her run was very good with the race shape against last start. She’ll get the trip and with a positive jock, I’m anticipating her closer in run. No knock on favourite but it is an open race and I’m happy to back the other two at healthy odds.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Buzz for 0.5 units

BACK (WIN) – Oribella for 0.5 units

Gosford | Race 3 | #1 Killin

Resuming from a long lay off and has trialled ok leading in. Obviously form in his latest trial behind Bethencourt and time good but that runner was superior. Might find 1100m too sharp. Priced to previous prep and I have Foxy Rocket ahead of him today. Happy to oppose.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Killin

Gosford | Race 4 | #10 Stolen Jade and #3 Dis Dah Wun

Stolen Jade has trialled neatly leading in, travelling strong throughout and running sound time. Most importantly, she was quick into stride. Love her set up from the draw and she is the horse to beat. Dis Dah Wun is another sharp trialler. She has come up with the wide gate, which isn’t a huge issue here but still not ideal. If she slides across fine, she is the danger and I want to save there.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Stolen Jade for 1 unit

BACK (WIN) – Dis Dah Wun for 0.5 units

Grafton | Race 7 | #1 Burbank

Won in good figures at 1300m last start and can definitely see why he is favourite in early markets. However, query him slightly back in trip and again drawing the marble. He’ll need a few things go his way and the inside may not be the place to be today. I have both Vacate and See It Thru ahead of him, so I am happy to oppose the favourite here.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Burbank

Grafton | Race 9 | #5 Wotsizname

Two good runs this time in at 1000m and 1200m. Ready to peak third-up out to 1400m. He was sound on a heavy 10 last start in a race not run to suit at all. Figures there back stepping up to 1400m today. He should be forward of midfield and expect he will be one of the strongest late. Zioptimus is another runner I have shorter in my market. 

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Wotsizname for 0.5 units each-way

Narromine | Race 2 | #8 All Star Rocket

New stable and early money has to be respected but from what we’ve seen in her two Feb trials, there’s not enough to consider the shorts. Toulon Factor and Big Talk both shorter in my market and happy to be with them and against All Star Rocket.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – All Star Rocket

Narromine | Race 7 | #3 Witness Collector

He should find the front without too much issue and that will hold him in good stead here. A positive steer last start saw him near pinch it from Henschel in fair figures on a heavy 8 over 1200m. This is a lesser field and if he replicates that run, he wins.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Witness Collector

Geelong | Race 1 | #7 Golden Egg

She was given a quiet trial before a sharp jump out at Colac recently. Strong throughout. I think she can utilise the low gate and even lead. With that, she is overs and we can play EW.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Golden Egg for 0.5 units each-way

Geelong | Race 8 | #4 Red Rossini

She has stepped up to the plate her past two at 11 and 1400m and needs to do that again here up in trip. Cafe Tortoni is at his right trip now and with a nice tighten up at the trials, I think he is the one to beat. With that, happy to be against Red Rossini in what is a harder race this time round.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Red Rossini

Newcastle | Race 6 | #5 Reveal the Magic

Ever consistent, placing in all five races this time in from 1000>1200m. Draws the rail, on top of the ground and a 3kg discount off his last start photo 2nd this C&D. There is definitely a couple that can press from deep and that is the query, however we are getting a fair quote which I expect to better again come jump. Happy to back EW.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Reveal the Magic

Hawkesbury | Race 3 | #4 Maccomo

The race has been decimated by scratchings with Nowyunomi now the dominant favourite. I can’t get the others close to him and I’m happy to oppose the short priced second elect, Maccomo.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Maccomo

Hawkesbury | Race 5 | #1 Entente

Resumed really well over 1550m last start. He jumped with them, snicked back, travelled deep and was still finding late, recording top race rating figures. Up to 1800m now perfect with Clark to dictate.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Entene

Goulburn | Race 3 | #4 Iconista

Fair on debut over 1300m, running 2nd behind a slick leader/winner. Although sat on the leader there, she is not overly quick out the gates. Still, she looks to get a fair run in transit and bumps into a relatively lacklustre field. However, there is one runner, Stiller, who I have much closer in my market and is the one with upside. His trial was sound and expecting an aggressive early ride. I also think Chloebella Rose should be considered at big odds. With that, I’m against Iconista at the short quote.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Iconista

Goulburn | Race 5 | #6 Temperate

Temperate was just even first-up behind an all the way winner. That leader held very soft fractions up front and they were entitled to run home well. He’ll take a bit from that and fired second-up last time in work in ok figured. With the low draw, out to 1600m, I have him closer in the market and am happy to back. Colesberg being the main danger followed by Amica. 

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Temperate for 0.5 units EW

Wyong | Race 4 | #5 Fox Spirit

Visually impressive in winning last start at 1000m and was ok on the clock. This is considerably harder and I’m anticipating good pressure up top. Six weeks between runs has me wary and I have For Love ahead in my market as well as Sacred Sword and Vinci Lady closer. Happy to oppose Fox Spirit at the short quote. 

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Fox Spirit

Wyong | Race 7 | #2 Succendam & #6 Ready’s Girl

I think the race is between two here; Ready’s Girl and Succendam ($4.4). RG was sound when winning at the mile two back and was ok at Canterbury last start over 1900m. Regardless of that finishing position, there was enough merit from her run. Like her back at the mile. Draws in today and should hold a nice spot on pace.

Succendum won like a smart horse against a sluggish tempo over 1350m resuming. He has since been given a very easy trial where he finished off under his own will. They’ll camp off the speed and bearing they can run on (which we’ll know now), I think he is the one to hold out. Playing this race 60/40.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Succendam for 0.4 units and Ready’s Girl for 0.6 units

Port Macquarie | Race 5 | #13 Just Cosmos

Ran good figures at 1400m, up from 1100m and likely suited up to 1500m today. She is untested in affected going and I’m not sure she is left alone up top.

I thought Submission represented the value in this field and Za Za Zena was a clear threat. With that, happy to oppose Just Cosmos.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Just Cosmos

Port Macquarie | Race 9 | #6 Toast

Going against the short priced favourite, Gironde with one whom he beat home last start in Toast. I thought Gironde would appreciate the same, if not a step up in trip, where as Toast could be suited better back to 1200m off that run. Yes, he’s a little fresh into this but with weight, query on surface and data between runs, I’d rather look elsewhere.

Toast has since run at 1400m, where he was a little disadvantaged by the steer and a race I’m happy to be lenient on. As above, I’m comfortable 1200m will suit and he does look to get a kind run in transit. At healthy figures, I’ll be playing EW.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Toast for 0.5 units each-way

Kembla | Race 5 | #3 Pioneer

The market has it between two and I completely agree. Pioneer trialled neatly before running a solid 2nd to Promotions. They gapped the rest with 3rd going on to win well since. He has trialled quite well between runs.

However, he bumps into Go For Gold who is endowed with natural ability but obviously had his issues. The lead in trial of Go For Gold was very comfortable and that heat has produced two sharp winners. I’ll go against Pioneer here.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Pioneer

Grafton | Race 1 | #4 Broken Windows and #5 Volfoni

Ex Danny O’brien, Broken Windows has trialled well on two occasions leading in. The first, he responded to urging, given a good hit out. The latest, blinkers went on and he cruised into 2nd under his own will. He should park forward of midfield and expect he is hard to beat.

I don’t want to let Volfoni go around with something on. He was supported resuming in what was a complete forgive run. Deep throughout from the wide barrier, then issues in the straight. Drawn in today, should hold a forward position in running and I have him much closer to the market fancies. 

Betting Strategy

BACK (Win) – Broken Windows for 1 unit and Volfoni for 0.25 units EW

Newcastle | Race 6 | #2 Reiby’s Regent

Has a level of ability and suited to this trip. He comes out of the Southern Cross stakes, completely outclassed. His start prior had merit in a race although figures were only fair. I can’t get him in the red and have both Canzonet and Buzz closer. Happy to oppose.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Reiby’s Regent

Newcastle | Race 8 | #3 Bombasay and #2 Arrogante

Bombasay resumes on the back of a neat trial, never really asked, travelling well within himself. Has talent but hasn’t raced tractable in previous races and that’s where there seemed a little improvement leading in. Tracks a good tempo and expect him to finish well.

Arragonte also resumes and trialled very forward forward this. Although his two wins are at 1500m, he is a strong fresh horse and sets up well on the back of that strong tempo. We can back both for a result.

Betting Strategy

BACK (Win) – Bombasay and Arrogante for 0.75 units

Tamworth | Race 6 | #5 She’s Smart

She won in ok figures second-up and sticks at 1200m, which looks fine. However, up in the weights and a month between runs against a marginally stronger field.

I have her longer in my market and have Hardspot on top in what is otherwise an even field. Happy to oppose She’s Smart today.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – She’s Smart

Tamworth | Race 3 | #1 Indian Dancer

He can be forgiven after working early in running at good fractions stepping up to the mile last start. Boxed on well enough (a little bit of trouble in straight and not ridden out). That was 13>1600m third-up. Like the jock change, he’ll be positive and with that I think he is a solid EW chance.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Indian Dancer

Grafton | Race 4 | #6 Allied Invasion

He had every chance from the front last start with the winner coming from his outside. The second elect in the market, Zavy’s Hope, was 5th and 6th in the running line and was really finding on the line. She also draws a gate, whereas Allied Invasion is in the car park. They both have query around the soft going, however, I have them the other way in my market and I’m against Allied Invasion today.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Allied Invasion

Grafton | Race 10 | #6 Halls Creek

He has been off the scene for 116 weeks and resumes here on the back of a relatively kind trial. Of note, he jumped half a length in front in that trial. He was then let find his feet, travelled deep and cruised to the line.

He comes up against some questionable opposition and even though he has some ambiguity around himself given the time off, his odds are quite generous. I thought Cinco Star was the horse to beat but I have him marked a touch bigger and there is a good chance they go along. Happy to back Halls Creek EW.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Halls Creek for 0.5u EW

Muswellbrook | Race 3 | #3 Captain Solo

Average rating 2nd fresh followed by just an even run second-up behind Carte Blanch. He bumps into a few handy gallopers, namely Moinda, who I have clear on top from Oakfield Romance. I’m against Captain Solo at the quote.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Captain Solo

Muswellbrook | Race 8 | #6 Vinci Lady

She didn’t come up at all last prep. She resumes today off a 33 week break and has trialled very well on two occasions. The latest of those, she went toe to toe with Goldfinch, composed and ran time under her own steam. I think she crosses fine, either pressing on to take it up or tagging Chico. With that, she in generous odds and happy to play EW.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EW) – Vinci Lady for 0.5u EW

Wagga | Race 1 | #10 Sundus

Resumes as a 3YO after only the one start as a 2YO in her first prep. She has jumped out well and the camp obviously have had great success sending their runners here.

Query a month from jump to track and she’ll need to be ready to go as she comes up against the smartly trialled, Hot ‘n’ Hazy. Danny Williams’ other runner, Walking Shark can also finish off should they go along. Just enough query for me to oppose Sundus today.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Sundus

Wagga | Race 3 | #5 Sassy Annie and #6 Inniskillen

Sassy Annie just needs a little luck sliding across soft and she’ll be hard to beat. Two starts in her career have been full of merit. The latest of those beating home Rocquette, who has since gone on to win quite well. Inniskillen is overs.

Although his card reads 8th of 12 last start, he wins there with any luck. Time was only average but he has improved in all starts to date and up to 1300m should suit. I think we can stake the two runners and get a result.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Sassy Annie (1.5 units) and Inniskillen (.25 units EW)

Scone | Race 4 | #1 Power of Wexford

Obviously the class runner and likely suited by the drop back to 1400m. However, her race didn’t rate overly well last start, running the same overall time as the maiden, with that race having much more merit – winner goes well.

There is also a solid query in the going. I concede she can win but the risk for reward is not there and happy to oppose. The second elect, Scatterblast has a better foundation for this.

Betting Strategy

LAY (WIN) – Power of Wexford

Scone | Race 6 | #10 Laino

His last two runs have had plenty of merit. The latest of those was over the mile where he travelled like the winner in running, climbing over heels for a good part of the straight. This is considerably weak and I have enough query around majority of the field. Of the exposed wet form in this field, his is ok. I think he ‘handled’ it and he has come back a better horse this time in. Worth an EW play. 

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) – Laino

Grafton | Race 2 | #1 Alternative Facts

Without a doubt, she has had a luckless prep but her racing pattern creates that. She has actually led at this track over 1100m and I do think she is closer in running today than her last runs suggest.

However, I query she sees 1400m and how she handles the going. I have Mummentum closer to her in the market and Coloane as a good EW hope. Keen to oppose Alternative Facts at the price.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Alternative Facts

Kilmore | Race 8 | #5 Our Volantis

She had been jumping out quite well before a solid run resuming over 1300m. Briefly held up in the straight in what was an unsuitable race shape. She found the line well and the winner has gone on to win in town. Up in trip, kind map, happy to back her in.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Our Volantis

Gosford | Race 1 | #2 Cloud Factory

Not overly convinced on Cloud Factory from his trials. His first better than latest and not sure he had a lot under the pilot. I have both Empress Bea and Hardedge ahead of him, so happy to oppose at the current odds.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Cloud Factory

Gosford | Race 2 | #6 Cubed & #5 Moinda

Cubed was good on resumption, closing strongly on Coco Cuber after being held up briefly in the straight over 1100m. Then went to Magic Millions where she was battered at the start. The blinkers backfired on her there. They come off today and love that Clark takes the reins. She’s drawn to camp on the lead pair and should be too strong late.

Moinda is her main danger. She had a torrid run resuming, with the winner (Snowden, backed for a stack) having a soft run throughout. She still took solid ground off her. She draws out and although has shown her best on rain-affected tracks, I can’t ignore what she showed there.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Cubed for 0.6 units

 BACK (WIN) – Moinda for 0.4 units