The Race Club: Best Back & Lay

BEST BACK

Port Macquarie | Race 2 | #5 Wild Sheila | 1.50PM AEDT

She was good at her 1st race start over 1200m at Tamworth, where she was last of 7 to turn, then had to change course a couple of times in straight & still worked home well. Stepping up to 1500 at her 2nd race start looks ideal. If the girl can give her a good steer, I think she is the horse to beat & fair value at current quote of $4.50.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Wild Sheila

BEST LAY

Port Macquarie | Race 8 | #3 Total Power  | 5.30PM AEDT

Won his maiden at 1st run over 1200m at Tamworth 17 days ago, where he led all the way setting a moderate tempo, so race couldn’t have been run more to suit, also the opposition was quite ordinary. Up to C1 race here & not a bad one at that, this field is far superior to what he beat at Tamworth. Even if he finds the front here, his dangers will be right on his tail. He looks quite short at current quote of 2.80

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Snippets of Rain

Oct 30th

BEST BACK

Grafton | Race 1 | #7 Bromach | 1.20pm

Is stepping up to this trip for first time, but he is a last start 2010m winner at Coffs Harbour where he was strong to the line. Run before was 1900m at Armidale where he ran on ok for third off slow tempo. Has hit form as his distances have increased. He comes in on the limit weight, just want him to settle in run and he will be hard to beat.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Bromach

BEST LAY

Stawell | Race 1 | #6 Mischa | 1.30pm

Small field with four first starters and the raced Mischa resuming. She wasn’t disgraced in handy races in her first prep and has jumped out fairly leading into this. I don’t think she is without good competition in the Weir pair, both who have jumped out smart enough to win this. Fairy Song, one of the Weir pair, was sharp and composed. For that reason I’m going against Mischa.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Mischa

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Oct 25th

BEST BACK

Hawkesbury | Race 1 | #8 Polhampton | 1.20pm AEDT

He is 1st up from a spell in this, had 2 runs last prep, 1st was one over 1000m he missed the kick, was near last to turn & worked to line ok in a race dominated by 1-2-3 in run.

He then went to midweek over 1200, jumped better from wide out, but was eased back racing a bit keen, went 4 wide turn to only plugged home to be beaten by 4.6L.

Had 1 trial leading into this where he was leaders back well on the bit, so from gate 2 he should race handy in a race that doesn’t have much in it. 14.00 EW looks fair odds.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Polhamton

BEST LAY

Hawkesbury | Race 4 | #1 and #11 All the Wine and Banjos Voice | 3.10pm AEDT

All The Wine is lining up for his 29th start still a maiden & even though this is a prov/ctry restricted maiden, it looks a bit strong for him. 5.50 looks short

Banjo’s Voice has led them up & not been real strong late, last run was 1280 at Orange, where he did do a little work to cross & lead, but tempo was only average, he would’ve finished closer had he not veered into rail & put in a couple rough strides in straight, but was an ordinary ctry mdn. 4.40 looks short as well.

Wild Kingdom & Lexi’s Choice are the 2 hardest to beat.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) All the Wine and Banjos Voice

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Oct 23rd

BEST BACK

Muswellbrook | Race 6 | #5 Sunday Swindler | 4.20pm AEDT

He is 1st up in this, he goes well 1st up, handles a rain affected track, races on pace, all positives for this race, as it looks like it will be moderately run, which won’t suit  the fave Yambaah Prince as he gets back.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Sunday Swindler

BEST LAY

Muswellbrook | Race 2 | #10 Macal | 1.55pm AEDT

She has had 4 runs this prep, from 1100 to 1250, she hasn’t looked a like a 900m horse in any of them. She has had a freshen up from winning a trial 25 days ago, but it it in slow time. The unraced fave has trialled better than it.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Macal

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Oct 18th

BEST BACK

Moe | Race 9 | #13 Botti | 5.10pm

Botti had his Australian debut over 1755m at Geelong and class prevailed. Traveled, held up in the straight, once out, really knuckled down to win smartly. Step up ideal and was nommed for Saturday but they’ve  elected to come here. He’ll be closer in running from the rails draw, a touch of luck when it matters and he looks to have a bit on these.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Botti

BEST LAY

Moe | Race 8 | #3 Royal Ace | 4.35pm

Sat closer last start over the mile and was only shaded late by a pretty smart one in Mahamedeis. He’s drawn barrier 7 of 9 here with a bit of speed under him and will need luck slotting in.

If they elect to go back and they over do it up front, he still has to get past others with strong finishes in Top Of The Range and Bad Wolf, who I think will both be more forward and get softer runs runs than Royal Ace today. Given the above, even money seems much too skinny to consider.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Royal Ace

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Oct 16th

BEST BACK

Newcastle | Race 5 | #3 Front View | 4.20pm

His 2nd to Carano over 1600m at Gosford on 14/8 was a very good run, then had 6 weeks gap until 28/9 where he trialled over 1200 at Gosford, he went very well in open trial running 2nd to Sense of Occasion & looked to trial better than it. looks a fair price. The closer to a Good 4 rating, the better his chances. 7.00 ew

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Front View

BEST LAY

Newcastle | Race 1 | #3 Shadow Bridge| 1.50pm

Although this horse has trialled well on 2 occasions leading into this, he did race a bit hard in his last one. Another concern is it’s been 25 days since last trial, making it 39 days since 1st trial, quite a long time for a horse going into a 900m race. I also have a doubt about him finding lead as horse in gate has speed & the 2nd fave Paris Lights, aside from missing the jump, she went quite well in her trial 21 days ago & think she is the horse to beat if she jumps away with them.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Shadow Bridge

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Oct 11th

BEST BACK

Wyong | Race 8 | #8 Celer| 5.25pm

He was very good in running 3rd to Power Rush beaten 1.26L 1st up over 1000m here 18 days ago. He looks to get a solid speed to follow. If the inside is fine come the last, then save on Sophiella.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Celer

BEST LAY

Wyong | Race 1 | #7 Segalas  | 1.05pm

Only had the one start, it was over 1200m here 18 days ago, where it had every chance sitting OSL in a slowly run race. It hit the lead turning and got run down to be beaten 1L. If it handles the Heavy, it will be hard to beat, but you don’t want those queries when taking 1.85.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Segalas

BEST LAY

Wyong | Race 5 | #3 Fast Train | 3.35pm

This looks a risky lay as the horse couldn’t have been more impressive in destroying a maiden field by 6.33L over 1800m at Hawkesbury 21 days ago. He was on pace in a fast run race and had it won before the turn, but he also over-raced for close to the 1st 1000m. If he over-races again here with an extra 300m to travel and on a heavy track, he may be vulnerable late. For those reasons I think 1.85 is a touch short.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Fast Train 

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Oct 9th

BEST BACK

Goulburn | Race 3 | #4 Maid in Milan | 2.25pm

Looks to lead at her leisure here, has only had 2 race starts & went well in both. 1st one she was chasing the smart Mansa Musa over 1100 at Gosford. She then stepped up to this distance at Bathurst for a narrow win, but it was more impressive than it looked, as she, jumped well then half got shuffled back to midfield when rider grabbed, overraced for a couple hundred metres in race that tempo suited leaders.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Maid in Milan

BEST LAY

Goulburn | Race 7 | #3 King’s Peak | 4.50pm

His paper form is the strongest in the race, but I think it’s a touch flattering. 1st start was in a maiden a lot stronger than this one, but he only plugged away to run 5th of 8 btn over 5L on a Soft 7. 2nd run he ran 2nd in a weak maiden at Kembla, where he ran on from well back, but race was fast run, winner did a good job to lead all the way, he ran on due to winner getting tired in run to line & not to mention they came home in slow figures.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) King’s Peak

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Oct 4th

BEST BACK

Wangaratta | Race 3 | #13 Lecture | 2.30pm

Going with the first starter Lecture here in what looks a maiden that lacks much depth. Has been very sharp in recent jump outs, showing good early speed and in the most recent, getting to the line with a bit still under her.

She should cross from the barrier to sit handy to the speed and I think she’ll be very hard to beat. Her current quote seems more than fair.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Lecture

BEST LAY

Gosford | Race 7 | #3 Spin Bowles | 4.50pm

He is an average conveyance & been beaten in weaker races than this one. His 1st up run was ok, when he ran on from well back to run 3rd btn 3.25L to Cyclonite over 1000m at Hawkesbury, but flattered by the fast pace.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Spin Bowles

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Oct 2nd

BEST BACK

Coffs Harbour| Race 3 | #3 Gunnaza, save on #6 Super Tonic | 2.40pm

Gunnaza should find the lead fairly easily here, exactly how you want a short course leader to find lead. If he does find it easy, he will hard to run down. 1000 is his best distance & his stats at this C&D are 4:2-1-1.

Save on his danger, the fave Super Tonic, who is 5 from 10 & 1 from 1 at C&D.  She should be fairly handy in run being 1st up & the small field will suit.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Gunnaza

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Super Tonic

BEST LAY

Nowra | Race 1 | #4 Graterra | 1.50pm

1st starter from a good stable & comes up with barrier 1, but that may not be enough. He has had 2 trials, the 1st ordinary, 2nd was a bit better but still not real flash. The horse drawn next to him, Commissioner has better race form than Graterra has trial form & is the horse to beat.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) Graterra