The Open: Your Expert Preview

The Open 2019 Golf tournament goes to Northern Ireland in July with every golfer aiming to win one of the major four tournaments. Our experts the analysts, take an in depth look at the upcoming tournament with this detailed preview.


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Course Details

Royal Portrush Golf Course, County Antrim, Northern Ireland. July 18 – July 21

The Dunluce Links is rated as one of the most challenging and spectacular links courses in the world, and has undergone major changes as part of preparations for the 148th Open. In order to meet the demands as a modern-day Open Championship venue, significant changes were carried out on the course under the stewardship of the golf architect Martin Ebert of Mackenzie and Ebert.

The addition of five new greens, eight new tee boxes, 10 new bunkers and the creation of two new holes, the 7th and 8th will make for a very interesting Open Championship venue this week.


Weather Details

Thursday – Showers, 17 Degrees, Precipitation 60%, Wind – 16mk/h, Humidity 81%

Friday – Showers, 17 Degrees, Precipitation 60%, Wind – 14km/h, Humidity 60%

Saturday – Showers, 18 Degrees, Precipitation 40%, Wind – 16km/h, Humidity 77%

Sunday – Showers, 19 Degrees, Precipitation 40%, Wind – 18/km/h, Humidity 77%


Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year Winner Runner Up
2018 F Molinari X Schauffele, J Rose, R McIIroy, K Kisner
2017 J Spieth M Kuchar
2016 H Stenson P Mickelson
2015 Z Johnson M Leishman, L Oosthuizen
2014 R McIlroy S Garcia, R Fowler
2013 P Mickelson H Stenson
2012 E Els A Scott
2011 D Clarke D Johnson, P Mickelson
2010 L Oosthuizen L Westwood
2009 S Cink T Watson
2008 P Harrington I Poulter


History at the Event

Player Avg last 20 rounds Last Year Results Average Past 3 Years
Rory McIlroy 68.6 69.3 69.42
Brooks Koepka 69.1 69.44 70.25
Dustin Johnson 69.6 68.7 70.75
Jon Rahm 70.1 69.96 72
Tiger Woods 70.1 69.35 69.75
Justin Rose 70 68.99 70.58
Francesco Molinari 70.95 69.8 70.38
Tommy Fleetwood 70.7 69.34 70.25
Xander Schauffele 70.55 70.49 69.63
Rickie Fowler 70.45 69.44 71.17
Adam Scott 69.45 70.42 70.92
Jordan Spieth 70.05 69.9 69.5
Patrick Cantlay 68.75 69.9 70.25
Justin Thomas 70.45 69.12 72.75
Henrik Stenson 69.7 69.62 68.83
Bryson DeChambeau 69.6 69.65 72
Jason Day 70.35 69.6 70.67
Matt Kuchar 69.45 70.46 70.08
Hideki Matsuyama 69.15 70.02 69.5
Louis Oosthuizen 70.9 70.16 71
Matt Wallace 70.85 70.87 71.29
Paul Casey 70.3 69.85 70.63
Ian Poulter 71.2 70.59 69.5
Shane Lowry 70.05 70.75 71.29


Current Odds and My Prices

Player Current Odds 3 – 2 – 1 Weighting My Price
Rory McIlroy 10 68.97 9
Brooks Koepka 12.5 69.41 15
Dustin Johnson 19 69.49 17
Jon Rahm 18.5 70.37 85
Tiger Woods 22 69.79 32
Justin Rose 25 69.76 29
Francesco Molinari 32 70.47 100
Tommy Fleetwood 32 70.17 65
Xander Schauffele 32 70.37 90
Rickie Fowler 38 70.23 75
Adam Scott 36 70.02 50
Jordan Spieth 42 69.91 42
Patrick Cantlay 42 69.38 13
Justin Thomas 36 70.39 95
Henrik Stenson 38 69.53 23
Bryson DeChambeau 50 70.02 46
Jason Day 55 70.15 60
Matt Kuchar 48 69.89 30
Hideki Matsuyama 55 69.5 20
Louis Oosthuizen 55 70.67 120
Matt Wallace 55 70.93 150
Paul Casey 80 70.2 70
Ian Poulter 100 70.71 130
Shane Lowry 85 70.49 110

Jon Rahm seems to be too short in the market. I am keen to look at some lay bets for top 5 and top 10 on Jon Rahm. Xander Schauffele and Francesco Molinari seem also seem to be a little too short in the market for mine. Patrick Cantlay, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar and Hideki Matsuyama seem to be some of the overs in the market this week.


In Play Trading Opportunities

The 4th hole could play difficult this week. It is a 482-yard par 4 and it has “out of bounds” running all the way down the right. The tee shot needs to thread the fairway bunkers and the “out of bounds”. I am predicting this hole will play well over its par, therefore placing a lay bet on the tee and re-backing after the hole is completed could be a great trade for the tournament.

The 16th hole could play very difficult this week, especially if the wind is whipping across the Atlantic. It has a very deep ravine on the right, with dense rough also needing to be avoided. Use the same trading strategy as above.

Assess the wind direction each day! Look for holes to be playing into the wind to increase difficulty and also assess the hole by hole field scoring averages to find your easier holes and more difficult holes after Day 1 and Day 2.


Pre Tournament Bets

Max bet for this supplier is 4 units.

 

LAY – John Rahm for the Top 5 for 2 units.

 BACK – Patrick Cantlay for the Top 20 for 2 units.

 BACK – Hideki Matsuyama for the Top 20 for 1 unit.

 BACK – Matt Kuchar for the Top 20 for 1 unit.

 BACK – Henrik Stenson for the Top 20 for 1 unit.


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