The Northern Trust: Half-Time Analysis 2018

Venue Name – Ridgewood CC, Paramus, NJ, 23-26 August 2018

Weather Report  –

 Saturday – Partly Cloudy, 27 Degrees, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 55%, Wind 3-13km/h

Sunday –  Mostly Sunny, 30 Degrees, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 59%, Wind 10-16km/h


Leaderboard Day 1

T1 K Tway -5
T1 J Lovemark -5
T1 V Taylor -5
T1 S O’Hair -5
T5 H Matsuyama -4
T5 S Piercy -4
T5 T Fleetwood -4
T5 D Johnson -4
T5 B Koepka -4
T5 P Casey -4

Others at -4

K Na, A Cejka, D Lee,

J Vegas, R Cabrera Bello, B Hossler

Leaderboard Day 2

T1 J Lovemark -10
T1 B Koepka -10
T1 A Scott -9
T1 D Johnson -8
T5 B DeChambeau -8
T5 K Tway -7
T5 S O’Hair -7
T5 T Fleetwood -7
T5 R Palmer -7
T5 J Vegas -7


Course Details and Round by Round Summary

Round 1 Summary

The course looks in pristine condition at Ridgewood this week, especially the greens. Defending Champion Dustin Johnson made a very solid start in round 1 with a 4 under par round and is alongside one of the tournament favorites Brooks Koepka.  Adam Scott could be a player to keep an eye on over the next 12 months, he is starting to play some solid golf again. Justin Rose, Francesco Molinari, Jason Day and Tiger Woods all struggled to fire in round 1, however it’s a condensed leaderboard and with a low round tomorrow or Saturday, anyone of these players could find themselves in contention come Day 4.

Round 2 Summary

Adam Scott continues to play some solid golf, he has gone back to doing a lot of things he has had past success with, displaying that today in his round of 64. Jason Day stormed back into contention with a good round of 5 under par. Brooks Koepka hasn’t played well at the event the last 3 years, however looks to be turning that around this year. Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas are both sitting at 8 under and 6 under respectively and look ready to strike on the weekend. Dustin unbelievably has had two triple bogies and is still in contention. It will be interesting to see how Jamie Lovemark handles the pressure of leading over the weekend.


In-play betting for Round 3 & Round 4

Below is a list of the hole by hole scoring averages from Ridgewood. There are 3 Par 5’s this week and they are all ranking in the 4 easiest holes on the course. Therefore it should provide some great “back” and “lay” opportunities.

Here is a trading suggestion –

Option 1. The 13th hole is a Par 5, and the 12th hole is short Par 4 that is playing very easy. I suggest placing a “back” bet on the player of your choice whom is in contention on the 12th tee and then placing a “lay” bet once that player has completed the 13th hole. The odds will be well in your favor to profit from this trade due to the easy ranking of these holes. Remember to always trade out, even if it doesn’t go your way, profiting long-term is the key! Sometimes I will back both leaders starting an easy stretch of holes, knowing the players in the groups ahead are about to start a difficult stretch of holes.

Option 2. Trade the 3rd hole and 17th hole using the above strategy.

Option 3. The 6th through to the 11th all rank in the hardest 7 holes on the golf course and they all average over par. I suggest placing a “lay bet on the 6th hole and “re-backing” your player on the 11th hole. The odds are well in your favor for that player to drift in the market!

 


Betting Strategy

Below are some weekend bets to consider, you may also want to read the in-play betting notes as well

Back – Adam Scott is playing well enough recently to warrant backing @ $1.70 top 10 – 2 Units

Back – Jason Day I expect to continue his solid form and finish top 10 @ $2.30 top 10 – 2 units

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