The Northern Trust Expert Preview

Author

The Analysts

Ridgewood CC, Paramus, NJ, 23-26 August 2018

Course Details

Ridgewood Country Club is a Country Club located in Paramus, New Jersey. The 27 Hole Golf Course was designed by A.W Tillinghast in 1929 and the greens are seeded with poa annua and bentgrass with the fairways being a combination of poa annua, bentgrass and ryegrass. The club has invested over 8 million dollars into the restoration of its golf course and golfing legend Bryon Nelson was an assistant professional at the venue in the 1930’s.

This will be the 4th time in the 12year history of The Northern Trust that Ridgewood will host the event. Dustin Johnson is the defending champion and based on his current form, he could be very difficult to beat again this year. Jason Day is another player with a very impressive resume at this event and has not finished outside the top 6 the past 4 years. Northern Trust, is a Chicago based financial firm that replaced Barclays as the title sponsor in 2017.

Weather Report

Thursday – Mostly Sunny, 26 degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 44%, Wind 13-19km/h

Friday – Sunny, 28 degrees, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 44%, Wind 6-10km/h

Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year Winner Runner Up
2017 D Johnson J Spieth
2016 P Reed E Grillo & S O’Hair
2015 J Day H Stenson
2014 H Mahan S Appleby & J Day
2013 A Scott G DeLaet, J Rose, T Woods, G Woodland
2012 N Watney B Snedeker
2011 D Johnson M Kuchar
2010 M Kuchar M Laird
2009 H Slocum T Woods, E Els, S Stricker, P Harrington
2008 V Singh S Garcia & K Sutherland
2007 J Kaye J Rollins

Players contending more than once * T Woods, R McIlroy, J Day & J Dufner

Players contending more than twice**

Top 25 World Rankings Form Review

Last 5 event stats are European Tour & PGA Tour combined. Scoring average is last 5 events on PGA Tour.

Player Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5 Scoring Average To Par 72   Adjustment
1. Dustin Johnson T27 T3 1st MC 3RD -1.57 70.42 70.68
2. Brooks Koepka 1ST 5TH MC T39 T19 + 1.70* 73.70* 72.89*
3. Justin Thomas T6 1ST MC T8 T56 -1.25 70.75 71.07
4. Justin Rose T19 T2 T9 T10 T6 -1.15 70.85 70.85
5. Jon Rahm T4 T17 MC T4 T5 -2.25 69.75 71.2
6. Francesco Molinari T6 T39 1ST T2 1ST + 2.75* 74.75* 72.36*
7. Rory McIlroy T50 T6 T2 T28 T12 -0.5 71.5 71.51
8. Jordan Spieth T12 T60 T9 T42 MC -1.16 70.83 70.83
9. Rickie Fowler T12 T17 T28 T6 12TH -1.22 70.78 70.78
10. Jason Day T19 T10 T17 T12 MC – 2.35** 69.65** 69.65**
11. Tommy Fleetwood T35 T14 T6 T12 MC 71.56
12. Patrick Reed MC T28 T9 T28 T23 -0.55 71.45 71.45
13. Alex Noren MC T31 T17 1st T23 71.56
14. Bubba Watson MC T31 MC MC T13 -1.45 70.55 70.55
15. Paul Casey MC T31 T7 T51 T2 -0.75 71.25 71.31
16. Webb Simpson 2ND T19 T24 T12 T47 -0.39 71.61 71.61
17. Xander Schauffele T35 68TH T2 T21 MC -0.75 71.25 71.5
18. Marc Leishman T71 T14 60TH T13 MC + 2.75* 74.75* 74.75*
19. Henrik Stenson MC T39 T35 T6 T26 -0.88 71.12 71.12
20. Hideki Matsuyama T11 T35 T39 MC MC -0.25 71.75 71.7
21. Bryson DeChambeau MC 30TH T51 T9 T25 1.5 73.5 71.77
22. Phil Mickelson MC T24 T24 MC T65 0 72 72
23. Tyrrell Hatton T10 T28 MC T2 55TH 71.56
24. Patrick Cantlay T27 T6 T12 T15 T45 -1 71 71.44
25. Sergio Garcia T24 MC T39 MC MC -0.25 71.75 71.64
26. Tiger Woods 2ND T31 T6 T4 MC – 2.50** 69.50** 71.15

Note – Tiger Woods is rising fast in the world rankings, therefore I will add him into the form review, he is now 26th in the world rankings.

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par – I would be careful placing any pre-tournament back bets on the following players that are averaging over par in their last 5 events played. Tyrrell Hatton, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Paul Casey, Bubba Watson, Alex Noren and Patrick Reed.

Good Form** – Players averaging 1.5 under or better – Francesco Molinari, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Webb Simpson are all in good form. Tiger Woods, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele are in the next bunch, not far behind these players.

Top 25 World Rankings performance at the Event the past 5 years

Note – Adjusted rating for the years that players do not compete (- 0.44 adjustment)

Player 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Scoring Average   Adjustment
1. Dustin Johnson 1ST T18 T9 DNP MC -1.57 70.42 70.68
2. Brooks Koepka T49 T70 MC DNP DNP + 1.70* 73.70* 72.89*
3. Justin Thomas T6 T10 T16 DNP DNP -1.25 70.75 71.07
4. Justin Rose T10 T31 T16 T30 T2 -1.15 70.85 70.85
5. Jon Rahm T3 DNP DNP DNP DNP -2.25 69.75 71.2
6. Francesco Molinari MC MC DNP DNP DNP + 2.75* 74.75* 72.36*
7. Rory McIlroy T34 T31 DNP T22 T19 -0.5 71.5 71.51
8. Jordan Spieth 2ND T10 MC T22 T19 -1.16 70.83 70.83
9. Rickie Fowler T20 T7 MC T9 T9 -1.22 70.78 70.78
10. Jason Day T6 T4 1ST T2 T25 – 2.35** 69.65** 69.65**
11. Tommy Fleetwood DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 71.56
12. Patrick Reed T20 1ST T62 T9 MC -0.55 71.45 71.45
13. Alex Noren DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 71.56
14. Bubba Watson T10 T13 3RD T30 T13 -1.45 70.55 70.55
15. Paul Casey 5TH T31 T39 T22 DNP -0.75 71.25 71.31
16. Webb Simpson T6 T48 T30 MC T15 -0.39 71.61 71.61
17. Xander Schauffele T17 DNP DNP DNP DNP -0.75 71.25 71.5
18. Marc Leishman MC MC MC MC 71ST + 2.75* 74.75* 74.75*
19. Henrik Stenson T17 W/D 2ND T38 T43 -0.88 71.12 71.12
20. Hideki Matsuyama MC MC T13 T30 DNP -0.25 71.75 71.7
21. Bryson DeChambeau MC DNP DNP DNP DNP 1.5 73.5 71.77
22. Phil Mickelson T54 T13 T50 78TH T6 0 72 72
23. Tyrrell Hatton DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 71.56
24. Patrick Cantlay T10 DNP DNP DNP DNP -1 71 71.44
25. Sergio Garcia DNP DNP DNP T57 T37 -0.25 71.75 71.64
26. Tiger Woods DNP DNP DNP DNP T2 – 2.50** 69.50** 71.15

Good History at Event **  Jason Day has been extremely impressive at this event, finishing no worse than 6th the past 4 years. John Rahm has only played this event once and Tiger Woods has only played this event once in the last 5 years, finishing 2nd.

Poor History at Event *   Francesco Molinari and Marc Leishman have struggled at this event, particularly Marc Leishman who has not made a cut in 5 years. Bryson DeChambeau struggled at his first start last year.

My Adjusted Stroke Average for the top 25 World Ranked Players

Player My Rankings My Price
Dustin Johnson 70.12 10
Justin Rose 70.27 14
Jason Day 70.4 15
Justin Thomas 70.74 17
Francesco Molinari 70.82 18
Webb Simpson 70.82 18
Rory McIlroy 70.83 20
Rickie Fowler 70.88 24
Tommy Fleetwood 70.89 25
Tiger Woods 70.98 27
Jon Rahm 71.06 30
Jordan Spieth 71.08 32
Henrik Stenson 71.17 36
Patrick Cantlay 71.19 40
Bubba Watson 71.24 44
Xander Schauffele 71.27 48
Brooks Koepka 71.43 55
Hideki Matsuyama 71.46 60
Patrick Reed 71.51 65
Bryson DeChambeau 71.61 70
Paul Casey 71.63 75
Alex Noren 71.68 80
Sergio Garcia 71.71 85
Tyrrell Hatton 71.87 90
Phil Mickelson 71.93 95
Marc Leishman 72.52 100

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Note – I have added Tiger Woods into the form review, as he is one of the world’s fastest rising players!

Betting Notes

The market is correct in having Dustin Johnson as favorite, however I believe there are some discrepancies. Brooks Koepka despite winning the U.S Open and PGA Championship, having good form in the majors is only 53 under par all year from 54 rounds and has awful recent form at this event.

When I look at Dustin Johnson who is 163 under par this year from 62 rounds and with good form at the event, it becomes clear to me that I am happy to oppose Brooks this week. Marc Leishman is in mediocre form and has an awful record at the event. I will be looking at some tournament match bets for the bottom guys on my ranking list to bet against.

You can compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find “overs” and “unders”. You can also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.

In Play Trading Opportunities

Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.

After Day 1, search the difficult stretch of holes or easy Par 5’s at Ridgewood CC. Great for applying the strategies mentioned in previous articles.

Pre Tournament Bets

Hope you all enjoyed the 16 unit return from an 11 unit outlay last week. 6 out of 7 bets correct and very nearly got the clean sweep!

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool.

 BACK – Justin Thomas to beat Brooks Koepka @ $1.95 for 2 units

 LAY – Brooks Koepka Top 10 @ $2.90 for 1 unit

 BACK – Jason Day Top 20 @ $1.80 for 2 Units

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