Ridgewood CC, Paramus, NJ, 23-26 August 2018
Course Details
Ridgewood Country Club is a Country Club located in Paramus, New Jersey. The 27 Hole Golf Course was designed by A.W Tillinghast in 1929 and the greens are seeded with poa annua and bentgrass with the fairways being a combination of poa annua, bentgrass and ryegrass. The club has invested over 8 million dollars into the restoration of its golf course and golfing legend Bryon Nelson was an assistant professional at the venue in the 1930’s.
This will be the 4th time in the 12year history of The Northern Trust that Ridgewood will host the event. Dustin Johnson is the defending champion and based on his current form, he could be very difficult to beat again this year. Jason Day is another player with a very impressive resume at this event and has not finished outside the top 6 the past 4 years. Northern Trust, is a Chicago based financial firm that replaced Barclays as the title sponsor in 2017.
Weather Report
Thursday – Mostly Sunny, 26 degrees, Precipitation 20%, Humidity 44%, Wind 13-19km/h
Friday – Sunny, 28 degrees, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 44%, Wind 6-10km/h
Last 10 Winners and Runners Up
Year | Winner | Runner Up |
---|---|---|
2017 | D Johnson | J Spieth |
2016 | P Reed | E Grillo & S O’Hair |
2015 | J Day | H Stenson |
2014 | H Mahan | S Appleby & J Day |
2013 | A Scott | G DeLaet, J Rose, T Woods, G Woodland |
2012 | N Watney | B Snedeker |
2011 | D Johnson | M Kuchar |
2010 | M Kuchar | M Laird |
2009 | H Slocum | T Woods, E Els, S Stricker, P Harrington |
2008 | V Singh | S Garcia & K Sutherland |
2007 | J Kaye | J Rollins |
Players contending more than once * T Woods, R McIlroy, J Day & J Dufner
Players contending more than twice**
Top 25 World Rankings Form Review
Last 5 event stats are European Tour & PGA Tour combined. Scoring average is last 5 events on PGA Tour.
Player | Event 1 | Event 2 | Event 3 | Event 4 | Event 5 | Scoring Average To Par 72 | Adjustment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Dustin Johnson | T27 | T3 | 1st | MC | 3RD | -1.57 | 70.42 | 70.68 |
2. Brooks Koepka | 1ST | 5TH | MC | T39 | T19 | + 1.70* | 73.70* | 72.89* |
3. Justin Thomas | T6 | 1ST | MC | T8 | T56 | -1.25 | 70.75 | 71.07 |
4. Justin Rose | T19 | T2 | T9 | T10 | T6 | -1.15 | 70.85 | 70.85 |
5. Jon Rahm | T4 | T17 | MC | T4 | T5 | -2.25 | 69.75 | 71.2 |
6. Francesco Molinari | T6 | T39 | 1ST | T2 | 1ST | + 2.75* | 74.75* | 72.36* |
7. Rory McIlroy | T50 | T6 | T2 | T28 | T12 | -0.5 | 71.5 | 71.51 |
8. Jordan Spieth | T12 | T60 | T9 | T42 | MC | -1.16 | 70.83 | 70.83 |
9. Rickie Fowler | T12 | T17 | T28 | T6 | 12TH | -1.22 | 70.78 | 70.78 |
10. Jason Day | T19 | T10 | T17 | T12 | MC | – 2.35** | 69.65** | 69.65** |
11. Tommy Fleetwood | T35 | T14 | T6 | T12 | MC | 71.56 | ||
12. Patrick Reed | MC | T28 | T9 | T28 | T23 | -0.55 | 71.45 | 71.45 |
13. Alex Noren | MC | T31 | T17 | 1st | T23 | 71.56 | ||
14. Bubba Watson | MC | T31 | MC | MC | T13 | -1.45 | 70.55 | 70.55 |
15. Paul Casey | MC | T31 | T7 | T51 | T2 | -0.75 | 71.25 | 71.31 |
16. Webb Simpson | 2ND | T19 | T24 | T12 | T47 | -0.39 | 71.61 | 71.61 |
17. Xander Schauffele | T35 | 68TH | T2 | T21 | MC | -0.75 | 71.25 | 71.5 |
18. Marc Leishman | T71 | T14 | 60TH | T13 | MC | + 2.75* | 74.75* | 74.75* |
19. Henrik Stenson | MC | T39 | T35 | T6 | T26 | -0.88 | 71.12 | 71.12 |
20. Hideki Matsuyama | T11 | T35 | T39 | MC | MC | -0.25 | 71.75 | 71.7 |
21. Bryson DeChambeau | MC | 30TH | T51 | T9 | T25 | 1.5 | 73.5 | 71.77 |
22. Phil Mickelson | MC | T24 | T24 | MC | T65 | 0 | 72 | 72 |
23. Tyrrell Hatton | T10 | T28 | MC | T2 | 55TH | 71.56 | ||
24. Patrick Cantlay | T27 | T6 | T12 | T15 | T45 | -1 | 71 | 71.44 |
25. Sergio Garcia | T24 | MC | T39 | MC | MC | -0.25 | 71.75 | 71.64 |
26. Tiger Woods | 2ND | T31 | T6 | T4 | MC | – 2.50** | 69.50** | 71.15 |
Note – Tiger Woods is rising fast in the world rankings, therefore I will add him into the form review, he is now 26th in the world rankings.
Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par – I would be careful placing any pre-tournament back bets on the following players that are averaging over par in their last 5 events played. Tyrrell Hatton, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau, Paul Casey, Bubba Watson, Alex Noren and Patrick Reed.
Good Form** – Players averaging 1.5 under or better – Francesco Molinari, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Webb Simpson are all in good form. Tiger Woods, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele are in the next bunch, not far behind these players.
Top 25 World Rankings performance at the Event the past 5 years
Note – Adjusted rating for the years that players do not compete (- 0.44 adjustment)
Player | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | Scoring Average | Adjustment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Dustin Johnson | 1ST | T18 | T9 | DNP | MC | -1.57 | 70.42 | 70.68 |
2. Brooks Koepka | T49 | T70 | MC | DNP | DNP | + 1.70* | 73.70* | 72.89* |
3. Justin Thomas | T6 | T10 | T16 | DNP | DNP | -1.25 | 70.75 | 71.07 |
4. Justin Rose | T10 | T31 | T16 | T30 | T2 | -1.15 | 70.85 | 70.85 |
5. Jon Rahm | T3 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | -2.25 | 69.75 | 71.2 |
6. Francesco Molinari | MC | MC | DNP | DNP | DNP | + 2.75* | 74.75* | 72.36* |
7. Rory McIlroy | T34 | T31 | DNP | T22 | T19 | -0.5 | 71.5 | 71.51 |
8. Jordan Spieth | 2ND | T10 | MC | T22 | T19 | -1.16 | 70.83 | 70.83 |
9. Rickie Fowler | T20 | T7 | MC | T9 | T9 | -1.22 | 70.78 | 70.78 |
10. Jason Day | T6 | T4 | 1ST | T2 | T25 | – 2.35** | 69.65** | 69.65** |
11. Tommy Fleetwood | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 71.56 | ||
12. Patrick Reed | T20 | 1ST | T62 | T9 | MC | -0.55 | 71.45 | 71.45 |
13. Alex Noren | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 71.56 | ||
14. Bubba Watson | T10 | T13 | 3RD | T30 | T13 | -1.45 | 70.55 | 70.55 |
15. Paul Casey | 5TH | T31 | T39 | T22 | DNP | -0.75 | 71.25 | 71.31 |
16. Webb Simpson | T6 | T48 | T30 | MC | T15 | -0.39 | 71.61 | 71.61 |
17. Xander Schauffele | T17 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | -0.75 | 71.25 | 71.5 |
18. Marc Leishman | MC | MC | MC | MC | 71ST | + 2.75* | 74.75* | 74.75* |
19. Henrik Stenson | T17 | W/D | 2ND | T38 | T43 | -0.88 | 71.12 | 71.12 |
20. Hideki Matsuyama | MC | MC | T13 | T30 | DNP | -0.25 | 71.75 | 71.7 |
21. Bryson DeChambeau | MC | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 1.5 | 73.5 | 71.77 |
22. Phil Mickelson | T54 | T13 | T50 | 78TH | T6 | 0 | 72 | 72 |
23. Tyrrell Hatton | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 71.56 | ||
24. Patrick Cantlay | T10 | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | -1 | 71 | 71.44 |
25. Sergio Garcia | DNP | DNP | DNP | T57 | T37 | -0.25 | 71.75 | 71.64 |
26. Tiger Woods | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | T2 | – 2.50** | 69.50** | 71.15 |
Good History at Event ** Jason Day has been extremely impressive at this event, finishing no worse than 6th the past 4 years. John Rahm has only played this event once and Tiger Woods has only played this event once in the last 5 years, finishing 2nd.
Poor History at Event * Francesco Molinari and Marc Leishman have struggled at this event, particularly Marc Leishman who has not made a cut in 5 years. Bryson DeChambeau struggled at his first start last year.
My Adjusted Stroke Average for the top 25 World Ranked Players
Player | My Rankings | My Price |
---|---|---|
Dustin Johnson | 70.12 | 10 |
Justin Rose | 70.27 | 14 |
Jason Day | 70.4 | 15 |
Justin Thomas | 70.74 | 17 |
Francesco Molinari | 70.82 | 18 |
Webb Simpson | 70.82 | 18 |
Rory McIlroy | 70.83 | 20 |
Rickie Fowler | 70.88 | 24 |
Tommy Fleetwood | 70.89 | 25 |
Tiger Woods | 70.98 | 27 |
Jon Rahm | 71.06 | 30 |
Jordan Spieth | 71.08 | 32 |
Henrik Stenson | 71.17 | 36 |
Patrick Cantlay | 71.19 | 40 |
Bubba Watson | 71.24 | 44 |
Xander Schauffele | 71.27 | 48 |
Brooks Koepka | 71.43 | 55 |
Hideki Matsuyama | 71.46 | 60 |
Patrick Reed | 71.51 | 65 |
Bryson DeChambeau | 71.61 | 70 |
Paul Casey | 71.63 | 75 |
Alex Noren | 71.68 | 80 |
Sergio Garcia | 71.71 | 85 |
Tyrrell Hatton | 71.87 | 90 |
Phil Mickelson | 71.93 | 95 |
Marc Leishman | 72.52 | 100 |
Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s
Note – I have added Tiger Woods into the form review, as he is one of the world’s fastest rising players!
Betting Notes
The market is correct in having Dustin Johnson as favorite, however I believe there are some discrepancies. Brooks Koepka despite winning the U.S Open and PGA Championship, having good form in the majors is only 53 under par all year from 54 rounds and has awful recent form at this event.
When I look at Dustin Johnson who is 163 under par this year from 62 rounds and with good form at the event, it becomes clear to me that I am happy to oppose Brooks this week. Marc Leishman is in mediocre form and has an awful record at the event. I will be looking at some tournament match bets for the bottom guys on my ranking list to bet against.
You can compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find “overs” and “unders”. You can also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.
In Play Trading Opportunities
Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.
After Day 1, search the difficult stretch of holes or easy Par 5’s at Ridgewood CC. Great for applying the strategies mentioned in previous articles.
Pre Tournament Bets
Hope you all enjoyed the 16 unit return from an 11 unit outlay last week. 6 out of 7 bets correct and very nearly got the clean sweep!
I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool.
BACK – Justin Thomas to beat Brooks Koepka @ $1.95 for 2 units
LAY – Brooks Koepka Top 10 @ $2.90 for 1 unit
BACK – Jason Day Top 20 @ $1.80 for 2 Units
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