The Mailbag: Royal Ascot Day 5

ROYAL ASCOT Day 5 – Saturday 23rd June

The weather forecast for Ascot is a maximum of 23c, minimal chance of rain and low wind factor. The track is rated Good to Firm

Royal Ascot R1 - 11.30pm | Chesham Stakes Listed – 7f

Natalie’s Joy made easy work of all rivals first up at Goodwood with a 6 length victory absolutely breaking the clock on good ground. Ratings suggest she was good enough on that day to win this race in three of the past five runnings. Most importantly, she savaged the line and looks the type to improve over the extra furlong.

The Charlie Appleby trained Beyond Reason is third up here coming off a 4 length win at Kempton Park on a slow all-weather surface. Looks a type open to natural improvement and will need to find all of it to beat the favourite.

Ryan Moore legs up Cardini for the O’Brien stable coming out of two maiden defeats at the Curragh on similar rated firm tracks. Attracting support in early markets, he will need to find a second and third gear that we are yet to see on the track.

New Winds is on the 10-day back-up after scoring at Haydock in significantly easier company. Her win at Newmarket first up in mid May suggested she may be a very promising horse, but her ratings run on the track since have regressed.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Natalie’s Joy for 3 units

Royal Ascot R4 - 1:20am | Diamond Jubilee Stakes Group 1 – 6f

Harry Angel comes into the race as the highest rated sprinter in the world and backed up those claims on return at York over 6f running a career peak rating with improvement to come. Just how good is Harry Angel? Two of this horses last three wins would have won the previous five Diamond Jubilee’s by lengths. The firm condition of the surface has been catching out a few runners this week, but Harry Angel it’s a positive for Harry Angel. .

Merchant Navy proved to be a solid competitor in Australia during the 2017 Spring and 2018 Autumn scoring a Group 1 win in the Coolmore Stud Stakes down the Flemington straight and a third in the Newmarket Handicap. Now with the Aidan O’Brien stable, he was expected to need the run first up at the Curragh when winning well in Group 2 class and recording a significant career peak run that has him well in contention.

The old warhorse Redkirk Warrior has gone from strength to strength since arriving in Australia sweeping the two main Group 1 sprint races in Flemington over the Autumn. No stranger to travel, the stable believes he has settled in perfectly and will give a bold showing after recording his best ever run last start to win the Newmarket Handicap.

Defending champion, The Tin Man, failed to hit the lofty heights expected of him after his win in the race last year. On the four runs since that victory, he didn’t score a win until dropping back to Listed grade first up this prep at Windsor. Ratings suggest he is going well enough this prep and has to be considered a contender on his best form.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Harry Angel for 2 units

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