The Mailbag: Royal Ascot Day 1

ROYAL ASCOT Day 1 – Tuesday 19th June

The weather forecast for Ascot is a maximum of 24c, low chance of rain and no wind factor. The track is rated Good to Firm (Good in places).

R3 - 12:40am | King's Stand Stakes Group 1 – 5f

Strong level of confidence in the first spring race of the Royal Ascot carnival over the 1000m. Battaash did enough first up at Haydock in late May to win, recorded his third highest rated performance on a track that was rated firmer than he prefers. Jim Crowley regains the mount and if Battaash runs up to his two previous peak ratings in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp and King George Stakes, it will take something special from his rivals to beat him.

The danger in the race appears to be Lady Aurelia. Winning this race last year, the 1000m specialist failed to win a listed grade race first up and was well off below her best her past two runs. Her best form is slightly below Battaash’s peak performances, but it has her competitive and rates her significantly higher than any other runners form.

Outside of the two favourites, Blue Point and Kachy are the two improvers to watch out for. Blue Point won at this course back in October and the stable believed the horse had gone to the next level before being scratched in Dubai due to a bleeding incident. His recent run at Sha Tin, finishing last, just has to be forgotten, based on the race shape that has seen the last 24 British or European horses fail to win the race and just three find a placing. Kachy finished 0.15L behind Battaash last start and has won three of his past five races, continuing to improve with every run this preparation and has to be considered a live chance in the race.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Battaash for 3.5 units

 BACK (WIN) Lady Aurelia for 1.75 units to win

Royal Ascot R4 - 01:20am | St James's Palace Stakes Group 1 – 7f 213y

An open race full of horses expected to show progression over 1600 metre course. No runner in the field has run a rating equal to or higher than the rating required to win this race the past five-years. Tip Two Win ran brilliantly in second last start behind Saxon Warrior in the 2000 Guineas Stakes and is likely to have improved from that run and comments from the stable suggest this is the case.

Romanised was an eye-catcher running on strongly at Curragh pulling away from a good field that included the fancied runner U S Navy Flag. Romanised doesn’t act well on wet tracks and has been under-rated on firmer surfaces due to those wet track runs in the past. Tip Two Win and Romanised, started their last starts as $143 and $50 on Betfair running the race of their lives, so it is no shock that neither of these runners have opened favourite.

Without Parole is a lightly raced type that performs well on all surfaces. This well bred colt he has been opened favourite in this race on potential, rather than runs currently on the board, and will need to improve on the run at Sandown in late May in a Listed race to win here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Romanised for 0.75 units to win

 BACK (WIN) Tip Two Win 0.75 units to win

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