The Federal Election: Your Early Betting Preview

Labor or the Coalition.

The Coalition or Labor.

When the Federal election is held somewhere between November 2018 and May 2019, around 16.25 million voters will determine which side will win.


The Odds

Given that every Newspoll, Essential poll and Ipsos poll has had Labor ahead of the Coalition for the last two years, the $1.30 on Betfair appears attractive. It usually takes a lot to change the momentum in politics, once the electorate have decided the current government has failed to deliver. That sentiment appeared to be confirmed over the weekend with with the likely loss of Wentworth, a historically safe seat for the Coalition.

NEWSPOLL Jul-Aug 2018 Aug-Oct 2018     Jul-Aug 2018 Aug-Oct 2018
NSW WA
Coalition 49 46 Coalition 50 46
Labor 51 54 Labor 50 54
VIC SA
Coalition 46 43 Coalition 51 42
Labor 54 57 Labor 43 58
QLD NATIONAL
Coalition 50 46 Coalition 49 45
Labor 50 54 Labor 51 55


At the odds, Labor look good

The odds for Labor appear especially attractive with the recent momentum. Labor were already in a strong position because of the leadership change in the Liberal Party and the pending Wentworth by-election loss confirms Labor’s momentum.

Add to this Labor’s policy platform that is focused on issues that are likely to appeal to the electorate. They include education, health, housing affordability and a range of tax reforms.

It’s no wonder the betting market has been unwavering in it’s Labor support, particularly during the last three months.


Can the Coalition Change the momentum?

If the last few days have taught us anything a week in politics is a long time, six months until the election is actually held might be an eternity. The Coalition could bounce back but it will take an incredible run of circumstances to ‘go right’ for that to happen. However in the fast changing world of politics and economics, there is clearly some chance of a Coalition resurrection.

The areas of hope for the Coalition include the improving budget position, which Prime Minister Scott Morrison said is likely to lead to a range of big spending policy announcements ahead of the election in an attempt to win back votes. Get set also for Coalition promises on tax cuts, which it sees as a factor that could sway otherwise disaffected voters.

Could this strategy bring the Coalition back into the mix? We’re not sure. Particularly now that governing just became a whole lot harder, in the wake of the Wentworth by-election. The Coalition will find it much more difficult to manage the House of Representatives if it is in minority.

Plus, the electorate is likely to view such give-aways with a high degree of cynicism.


Conclusion

If Labor can maintain a positive approach to its policies and not self destruct, the current $1.30 looks a great betting opportunity. After all, the election is a two horse race and the form of both sides is exposed on a daily basis and then tested with public opinions polls. We recommend backing Labor now and continuing to do so, so long as Newspoll and the other polling channels, remain conclusive.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Labor to win the Federal Election.


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