Dell Technologies Championship: Expert Preview

TPC Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 31-3 Sept, 2018


Course Details

The Fed Ex Cup is down to the top 100 players for the Dell Technologies Championship, formally known as the Deutsche Bank Championship, and its sure to be an exciting week. TPC Boston was originally designed by Arnold Palmer the course was re-designed in 2007 by Brad Faxon acting as a consultant for architect Gil Hanse.

Lush fairways, Bentgrass greens and 58 bunkers will sure make for a challenging week in the peaceful, scenic landscape. The par 72 layout will measure 7206 yards, with some strong par 4’s measuring over 450 yards. Rory McIlroy is a two-time winner of this tournament since 2012 and will go into the Championship with plenty of confidence.


Weather Report

Thursday –  32 degrees, scattered thunderstorms, precipitation 40%, humidity 56%, Wind 14-18km/h

Friday – 22 degrees, partly cloudy, precipitation 10%, humidity 70%, 18-23km/h


Last 10 Winners and Runners Up

Year Player Runner Up
2017 J Thomas J Spieth
2016 R McIlroy P Casey
2015 R Fowler H Stenson
2014 C Kirk R Henley, G Ogilvy, B Horshel
2013 H Stenson S Stricker
2012 R McIlroy L Oosthuizen
2011 W Simpson C Reavie
2010 C Hoffman J Day, L Donald, G Ogilvy
2009 S Stricker J Dufner, S Verplank
2008 V J Singh M Weir
2007 P Mickelson A Oberholser, B Watterich, T Woods

Top 25 World Rankings Form Review

Player Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5 Scoring Average To Par 72  
1. Dustin Johnson T11 T27 T3 1st MC – 2.38** 69.61**
2. Brooks Koepka T8 1ST 5TH MC T39 -1.72 70.27
3. Justin Thomas T8 T6 1ST MC T8 -1.88 70.11
4. Justin Rose MC T19 T2 T9 T10 -0.77 71.22
5. Jon Rahm MC T4 T17 MC T4 + 0.71* 73.71*
6. Francesco Molinari MC T6 T39 1ST T2 -1.88 70.11
7. Rory McIlroy T50 T6 T2 T28 T12 -1.94 70.05
8. Rickie Fowler T12 T17 T28 T6 12TH -0.5 71.5
9. Jordan Spieth T25 T12 T60 T9 T42 -0.9 71.1
10. Jason Day T20 T19 T10 T17 T12 -1.75 70.25
11. Tommy Fleetwood T20 T35 T14 T6 T12 -1.85 70.15
12. Bryson DeChambeau 1ST MC 30TH T51 T9 -1.44 70.56
13. Patrick Reed T25 MC T28 T9 T28 -0.7 71.3
14. Bubba Watson T34 MC T31 MC MC + 0.64* 72.64*
15. Alex Noren MC MC T31 T17 1st + 1.00* 73.00*
16. Paul Casey T60 MC T31 T7 T51 -0.16 71.83
17. Webb Simpson T28 2ND T19 T24 T12 -1.85 70.15
18. Tony Finau 2ND T42 T10 T39 T9 -1.9 70.1
19. Hideki Matsuyama T15 T11 T35 T39 MC -1.1 70.9
20. Xander Schauffele MC T35 68TH T2 T21 -0.27 71.72
21. Henrik Stenson MC T39 T35 T6 T26 -0.16 71.84
22. Marc Leishman T15 T34 T71 T14 60TH -0.55 71.44
23. Patrick Cantlay T8 T27 T6 T12 T15 -1.9 70.1
24. Phil Mickelson T15 MC T24 T24 MC -0.55 71.44
25. Tyrrell Hatton T20 T10 T28 MC T2 -0.45 71.55
26. Tiger Woods T40 2ND T31 T6 T4 -1.7 70.3

Note – Tiger Woods is rising fast in the world rankings, therefore I will add him into the form review & Tony Finau is the new addition to the top 25 world rankings.

Poor Form*- Players Averaging over par –   Out of form golfers can suddenly spring up and play well, like Bryson DeChambeau did last week. However as a general rule, I would be careful placing any pre-tournament back bets on players that are out of form and have a poor scoring average in their last 5 events played. This week I notice that John Rahm, Bubba Watson and Alex Noren are all out of current form. Of the three players Bubba is struggling to finish better than 30th at present.

Good Form** – Dustin Johnson continues to be the most inform player in the world at present, averaging 2.38 under par, nearly 0.5 of a shot better than his nearest rival. There is a wall of players behind Dustin Johnson coming into form and you might find some value in players like Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Webb Simpson and Tommy Fleetwood. My weighting system I use in order is – “Current Form” followed by, “Year to Date Performance”, followed by “History at the Event”. I want the top players in the world that I am analyzing to be in strong current form primarily before considering them for any match bets, top 5, top 10, or top 20 bets.


Top 25 World Rankings Performance at Event in past 3 years

Player 2017 2016 2015 Scoring Average Adjustment
1. Dustin Johnson T18 T8 T44 70.42 70.42
2. Brooks Koepka T18 T57 MC 72 72
3. Justin Thomas 1ST MC T56 70.91 70.91
4. Justin Rose T10 T57 MC 71.42 71.42
5. Jon Rahm T4 DNP DNP 69 70.28
6. Francesco Molinari T61 DNP DNP 72.75 71.53
7. Rory McIlroy MC 1ST T29 70.6 70.6
8. Rickie Fowler T13 T46 1ST 69.83 69.83
9. Jordan Spieth 2ND T21 MC 70.75 70.75
10. Jason Day T25 T15 T12 70.5 70.5
11. Tommy Fleetwood DNP DNP DNP 70.93
12. Bryson DeChambeau T30 DNP DNP 71.25 71.03
13. Patrick Reed T6 T5 T4 69.58 69.58
14. Bubba Watson T69 MC T29 72.25 72.25
14. Alex Noren DNP DNP DNP 70.93
16. Paul Casey DNP T4 2ND 68.87 68.87
17. Webb Simpson 75TH MC T44 72.66 72.66
18. Tony Finau T65 T24 MC 72.8 72.8
19. Hideki Matsuyama T23 T15 T25 70.58 70.58
20. Xander Schauffele T53 DNP DNP 72.25 71.37
21. Henrik Stenson DNP T41 2ND 69.75 70.14
22. Marc Leishman 3RD T46 MC 70.9 70.9
23. Patrick Cantlay T13 DNP DNP 70 70.62
24. Phil Mickelson T6 MC T65 71.7 71.7
25. Tyrrell Hatton DNP DNP DNP 70.93
26. Tiger Woods DNP DNP DNP 70.93

Adjusted Stroke Averages for the Top 25

Note – You can compare my rankings against the Betfair Market to find under the odds and over’s

Player My Rankings My Price
1.       Dustin Johnson 69.68 9
2.       Justin Thomas 70.27 13
3.       Jason Day 70.33 14
4.       Patrick Cantlay 70.37 16
5.       Tommy Fleetwood 70.37 16
6.       Rory McIlroy 70.43 17
7.       Tony Finau 70.57 20
8.       Tiger Woods 70.64 22
9.       Jordan Spieth 70.66 25
10.    Bryson DeChambeau 70.71 29
11.    Webb Simpson 70.77 35
12.    Brooks Koepka 70.77 35
13.    Hideki Matsuyama 70.81 40
14.    Justin Rose 70.85 44
15.    Rickie Fowler 70.85 44
16.    Patrick Reed 70.85 44
17.    Francesco Molinari 70.86 46
18.    Paul Casey 71.12 55
19.    Henrik Stenson 71.13 60
20.    Marc Leishman 71.23 60
21.    Phil Mickelson 71.32 65
22.    Tyrrell Hatton 71.52 70
23.    Jon Rahm 71.58 75
24.    Xander Schauffele 71.72 80
25.    Bubba Watson 71.95 90
26.    Alex Noren 72.14 100

Betting Notes

Once again the market is correct in having Dustin Johnson as favorite and Justin Thomas as second favourite, however I believe there are some discrepancies. Brooks Koepka despite winning the U.S Open and PGA Championship, having good form in the majors is only 64 under par all year from 58 rounds, I continue to have Brooks at under the odds, and believe this week he should be $35.

When I look at Dustin Johnson who is 173 under par this year from 66 rounds and with good current form, it becomes clear to me that I am happy to oppose Brooks this week. Alex Noren is out of from and will oppose him in any tournament match bets, along with Bubba Watson and Xander Schauffele. I have Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau as good “overs” for the event.

You can compare my prices to the Betfair market, to find “overs” and “unders”. You can also apply these odds to top 5, top 10, top 20, tournament match bets etc.


In Play Trading Opportunities

Assess the scores after Day 1 and if the tournament is low scoring then apply my trading strategies mentioned in previous articles. “Laying” morning player with a good scoring and “Re-Backing” before commencing round 2.

I will be playing the Par 5’s this week at TPC Boston, they don’t look too difficult on paper. If I see the leading players in a good position on the fairway, I will be inclined to place a “back” bet and then place a “lay” bet once the hole is completed.


Pre Tournament Bets

Hope you all enjoyed the 16 unit return from an 11 unit outlay last week. 6 out of 7 bets correct and very nearly got the clean sweep!

I really like the tournament head to head match bets, and I have listed a couple of options below, possibly wait until Thursday evening when there is more liquidity in the pool.

 BACK – Dustin Johnson to beat Justin Thomas at $1.90 for 1 unit

 BACK – Tony Finau to beat John Rahm at $2 for 3 units

 BACK – Jason Day to beat Tiger Woods @ $1.90 for 1 unit

 BACK – Rory McIlroy to beat Brooks Koepka at $2.10 for 2 units

 LAY –  John Rahm to finish Top 20 at $2.20 for 2 units

 BACK – Patrick Cantlay to finish Top 20 at $2.70 for 1 unit

 BACK – Tony Finau to finish Top 20 at $2.70 for 1 unit


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